Estimation of dynamic latent variable models using simulated nonparametric moments

Given a model that can be simulated, conditional moments at a trial parameter value can be calculated with high accuracy by applying kernel smoothing methods to a long simulation. With such conditional moments in hand, standard method of moments techniques can be used to estimate the parameter. Since conditional moments are calculated using kernel smoothing rather than simple averaging, it is not necessary that the model be simulable subject to the conditioning information that is used to define the moment conditions. For this reason, the proposed estimator is applicable to general dynamic latent variable models. Monte Carlo results show that the estimator performs well in comparison to other estimators that have been proposed for estimation of general DLV models.

Why the EU does not Have an Independent Competition Agency: French Interests and Transaction Costs in Early European Integration

A major achievement of new institutionalism in economics and political science is the formalisation of the idea that certain policies are more efficient when administered by a politically independent organisation. Based on this insight, several policy actors and scholars criticise the European Community for relying too much on a multi-task, collegial, and politicised organisation, the European Commission. This raises important questions, some constitutional (who should be able to change the corresponding procedural rules?) and some political-economic (is Europe truly committed to free and competitive markets?). Though acknowledging the relevance of legal and normative arguments, this paper contributes to the debate with a positive political-scientific perspective. Based on the view that institutional equilibria raise the question of equilibrium institutions, it shows that collegiality was (a) an equilibrium institution during the Paris negotiations of 1950-51; and (b) an institutional equilibrium for the following 50 years. The conclusion points to some recent changes in the way that European competition policy is implemented, and discusses how these affect the “constitutional” principle of collegial European governance.

Experimental investigation of transient natural convection cooling of high prandtl number fluid with variable viscosity

Report for the scientific sojourn at the James Cook University, Australia, between June to December 2007. Free convection in enclosed spaces is found widely in natural and industrial systems. It is a topic of primary interest because in many systems it provides the largest resistance to the heat transfer in comparison with other heat transfer modes. In such systems the convection is driven by a density gradient within the fluid, which, usually, is produced by a temperature difference between the fluid and surrounding walls. In the oil industry, the oil, which has High Prandtl, usually is stored and transported in large tanks at temperatures high enough to keep its viscosity and, thus the pumping requirements, to a reasonable level. A temperature difference between the fluid and the walls of the container may give rise to the unsteady buoyancy force and hence the unsteady natural convection. In the initial period of cooling the natural convection regime dominates over the conduction contribution. As the oil cools down it typically becomes more viscous and this increase of viscosity inhibits the convection. At this point the oil viscosity becomes very large and unloading of the tank becomes very difficult. For this reason it is of primary interest to be able to predict the cooling rate of the oil. The general objective of this work is to develop and validate a simulation tool able to predict the cooling rates of high Prandtl fluid considering the variable viscosity effects.

Patrones de tomate: resistencia variable frente al nematodo Meloidogyne

Los patrones de tomate se han propuesto como una alternativa no química al uso del bromuro de metilo. En este estudio se evaluó la respuesta de resistencia de diez patrones de tomate (comerciales y experimentales) a nematodos del género Meloidogyne mediante un ensayo de campo realizado en un invernadero de plástico cuyo suelo se hallaba infestado por Meloidogyne javanica. Al finalizar la campaña agrícola (marzo a julio), siete de los patrones ensayados mostraron altos niveles de resistencia, uno presentó resistencia intermedia y dos resultaron ser susceptibles al nematodo.

Estimation of dynamic latent variable models using simulated nonparametric moments

Abstract. Given a model that can be simulated, conditional moments at a trial parameter value can be calculated with high accuracy by applying kernel smoothing methods to a long simulation. With such conditional moments in hand, standard method of moments techniques can be used to estimate the parameter. Because conditional moments are calculated using kernel smoothing rather than simple averaging, it is not necessary that the model be simulable subject to the conditioning information that is used to define the moment conditions. For this reason, the proposed estimator is applicable to general dynamic latent variable models. It is shown that as the number of simulations diverges, the estimator is consistent and a higher-order expansion reveals the stochastic difference between the infeasible GMM estimator based on the same moment conditions and the simulated version. In particular, we show how to adjust standard errors to account for the simulations. Monte Carlo results show how the estimator may be applied to a range of dynamic latent variable (DLV) models, and that it performs well in comparison to several other estimators that have been proposed for DLV models.

Les TIC a l'ensenyament de la modelització matemàtica en Ciències Econòmiques i en Ciències Experimentals

Aquest projecte proposa materials didàctics per a un nou plantejament de les assignatures de Matemàtiques dels primers cursos de Ciències Empresarials i d'Enginyeria Tècnica, més acord amb el procés de convergència europea, basat en la realització de projectes que anomenem “Tallers de Modelització Matemàtica” (TMM) en els quals: (1) Els alumnes parteixen de situacions i problemes reals per als quals han de construir per sí mateixos els models matemàtics més adients i, a partir de la manipulació adequada d’aquests models, poden obtenir la informació necessària per donar-los resposta. (2) El treball de construcció, experimentació i avaluació dels models es realitza amb el suport de la calculadora simbòlica Wiris i del full de càlcul Excel com a instruments “normalitzats” del treball matemàtic d’estudiants i professors. (3) S’adapten els programes de les assignatures de matemàtiques de primer curs per tal de poder-les associar a un petit nombre de Tallers que parteixen de situacions adaptades a cada titulació. L’assignatura de Matemàtiques per a les Ciències Empresarials s’articula entorn de dos tallers independents: “Matrius de transició” pel que fa a l’àlgebra lineal i “Previsió de vendes” per a la modelització funcional en una variable. L’assignatura de Matemàtiques per a l’Enginyeria s’articula entorn d’un únic taller, “Models de poblacions”, que abasta la majoria de continguts del curs: successions i models funcionals en una variable, àlgebra lineal i equacions diferencials. Un conjunt d’exercicis interactius basats en la calculadora simbòlica WIRIS (Wiris-player) serveix de suport per al treball tècnic imprescindible per al desenvolupament de les dues assignatures. L’experimentació d’aquests tallers durant 2 cursos consecutius (2006/07 i 2007/08) en dues universitats catalanes (URL i UAB) ha posat en evidència tant els innegables avantatges del nou dispositiu docent per a l’aprenentatge dels estudiants, així com les restriccions institucionals que actualment dificulten la seva gestió i difusió.

Genomics of wine yeast: functional analysis of new and variable genes

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a l’Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, França, entre 2007 i 2009. Saccharomyces cerevisiae ha estat el llevat utilitzat durant mil.lenis en l'elaboració de vins. Tot i així, es té poc coneixement sobre les pressions de selecció que han actuat en la modelització del genoma dels llevats vínics. S’ha seqüenciat el genoma d'una soca vínica comercial, EC1118, obtenint 31 supercontigs que cobreixen el 97% del genoma de la soca de referència, S288c. S’ha trobat que el genoma de la soca vínica es diferencia bàsicament en la possessió de 3 regions úniques que contenen 34 gens implicats en funcions claus per al procés fermentatiu. A banda, s’han dut a terme estudis de filogènia i synteny (ordre dels gens) que mostren que una d'aquestes tres regions és pròxima a una espècie relacionada amb el gènere Saccharomyces, mentre que les altres dos regions tenen un origen no-Saccharomyces. S’ha identificat mitjançant PCR i seqüenciació a Zygosaccharomyces bailii, una espècie contaminant de les fermentacions víniques, com a espècie donadora d'una de les dues regions. Les hibridacions naturals entre soques de diferents espècies dins del grup Saccharomyces sensu stricto ja han estat descrites. El treball és el primer que presenta hibridacions entre espècies Saccharomyces i no-Saccharomyces (Z. bailii, en aquest cas). També s’assenyala que les noves regions es troben freqüent i diferencialment presents entre els clades de S. cerevisiae, trobant-se de manera gairebé exclusiva en el grup de les soques víniques, suggerint que es tracta d'una adquisició recent de transferència gènica. En general, les dades demostren que el genoma de les soques víniques pateix una constant remodelació mitjançant l'adquisició de gens exògens. Els resultats suggereixen que aquests processos estan afavorits per la proximitat ecològica i estan implicats en l'adaptació molecular de les soques víniques a les condicions d'elevada concentració en sucres, poc nitrogen i elevades concentracions en etanol.

Expressió de VEGF com a factor pronòstic independent de recaiguda a la malaltia de Hodgkin.

El paper del fenomen angiogènic en els diferents tumors sòlids ha estat l’objectiu de nombrosos estudis en els darrers anys. La importància d’aquest procés en les neoplàsies d’origen hematològic encara és bastant desconeguda. En aquest treball hem estudiat l’expressió immunohistoquímica del factor de creixement de l’endoteli vascular (VEGF) en els “tissue microarrays” (TMA) de 252 pacients diagnosticats de limfoma de Hodgkin tractats de forma homogènia (poliquimioteràpia esquema ADVD amb o sense radioteràpia) entre els anys 1978 i 2003. Els resultats s’han correlacionat amb l’evolució dels pacients i s’ha avaluat la seva importància en la supervivència lliure de malaltia i supervivencia global de la sèrie.

Com hauria d’acollir la Unió Europea una Catalunya independent

L’objectiu d’aquest treball és saber com hauria d’acollir la Unió Europea a una Catalunya independent que en vol formar part. Estem, doncs, davant d’un procediment d’ampliació interna de la Unió Europea, ja que el territori català ja forma part de la mateixa i ja funciona com a subjecte i aplicant del Dret europeu. Per tant, el nostre objectiu fa que, en primer lloc, ens preguntem què és el dret a l’autodeterminació i saber si aquest té cabuda dins de la Unió Europea, ja que primer cal determinar qui és el “poble català” que s’ha constituït com a Estat. En segon lloc, la persecució de la nostra fita ens porta a buscar si els Tractats constitutius inclouen la pauta del procediment d’ampliació interna. Així doncs, hem d’entrar a analitzar-los i a establir quins passos haurà de realitzar el nou estat que pretén ser membre, així com la mateixa Unió Europea.

Investment, duration, and exit strategies for corporate and independent venture capital-backed start-ups

We propose a model of investment, duration, and exit strategies for start-ups backed by venture capital (VC) funds that accounts for the high level of uncertainty, the asymmetry of information between insiders and outsiders, and the discount rate. Our analysis predicts that start-ups backed by corporate VC funds remain for a longer period of time before exiting and receive larger investment amounts than those financed by independent VC funds. Although a longer duration leads to a higher likelihood of an exit through an acquisition, a larger investment increases the probability of an IPO exit. These predictions find strong empirical support.

Quantifying rock fabrics: a test of autocorrelation of the spatial distribution of cristals

A novel test of spatial independence of the distribution of crystals or phases in rocksbased on compositional statistics is introduced. It improves and generalizes the commonjoins-count statistics known from map analysis in geographic information systems.Assigning phases independently to objects in RD is modelled by a single-trial multinomialrandom function Z(x), where the probabilities of phases add to one and areexplicitly modelled as compositions in the K-part simplex SK. Thus, apparent inconsistenciesof the tests based on the conventional joins{count statistics and their possiblycontradictory interpretations are avoided. In practical applications we assume that theprobabilities of phases do not depend on the location but are identical everywhere inthe domain of de nition. Thus, the model involves the sum of r independent identicalmultinomial distributed 1-trial random variables which is an r-trial multinomialdistributed random variable. The probabilities of the distribution of the r counts canbe considered as a composition in the Q-part simplex SQ. They span the so calledHardy-Weinberg manifold H that is proved to be a K-1-affine subspace of SQ. This isa generalisation of the well-known Hardy-Weinberg law of genetics. If the assignmentof phases accounts for some kind of spatial dependence, then the r-trial probabilitiesdo not remain on H. This suggests the use of the Aitchison distance between observedprobabilities to H to test dependence. Moreover, when there is a spatial uctuation ofthe multinomial probabilities, the observed r-trial probabilities move on H. This shiftcan be used as to check for these uctuations. A practical procedure and an algorithmto perform the test have been developed. Some cases applied to simulated and realdata are presented.Key words: Spatial distribution of crystals in rocks, spatial distribution of phases,joins-count statistics, multinomial distribution, Hardy-Weinberg law, Hardy-Weinbergmanifold, Aitchison geometry

Rational Partisan Theory with fiscal policy and an independent central bank

The empirical evidence testing the validity of the rational partisan theory (RPT) has been mixed. In this article, we argue that the inclusion of other macroeconomic policies and the presence of an independent central bank can partly contribute to explain this inconclusiveness. This article expands Alesina s (1987) RPT model to include an extra policy and an independent central bank. With these extensions, the implications of RPT are altered signi ficantly. In particular, when the central bank is more concerned about output than public spending (an assumption made by many papers in this literature), then the direct relationship between in flation and output derived in Alesina (1987) never holds. Keywords: central bank, conservativeness, political uncertainty. JEL Classi fication: E58, E63.

Relaxation of selective constraints causes independent selenoprotein extinction in insect genomes

BACKGROUND: Selenoproteins are a diverse family of proteins notable for the presence of the 21st amino acid, selenocysteine. Until very recently, all metazoan genomes investigated encoded selenoproteins, and these proteins had therefore been believed to be essential for animal life. Challenging this assumption, recent comparative analyses of insect genomes have revealed that some insect genomes appear to have lost selenoprotein genes. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this paper we investigate in detail the fate of selenoproteins, and that of selenoprotein factors, in all available arthropod genomes. We use a variety of in silico comparative genomics approaches to look for known selenoprotein genes and factors involved in selenoprotein biosynthesis. We have found that five insect species have completely lost the ability to encode selenoproteins and that selenoprotein loss in these species, although so far confined to the Endopterygota infraclass, cannot be attributed to a single evolutionary event, but rather to multiple, independent events. Loss of selenoproteins and selenoprotein factors is usually coupled to the deletion of the entire no-longer functional genomic region, rather than to sequence degradation and consequent pseudogenisation. Such dynamics of gene extinction are consistent with the high rate of genome rearrangements observed in Drosophila. We have also found that, while many selenoprotein factors are concomitantly lost with the selenoproteins, others are present and conserved in all investigated genomes, irrespective of whether they code for selenoproteins or not, suggesting that they are involved in additional, non-selenoprotein related functions. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Selenoproteins have been independently lost in several insect species, possibly as a consequence of the relaxation in insects of the selective constraints acting across metazoans to maintain selenoproteins. The dispensability of selenoproteins in insects may be related to the fundamental differences in antioxidant defense between these animals and other metazoans.

Analysis of the multi-copy gene family FAM90A as a copy number variant in different ethnic backgrounds

Copy number variants contribute extensively to inter-individual genomic differences, but little is known about their inter-population variability and diversity. In a previous study (Bosch et al., 2007; 16:2572-2582), we reported that the primate-specific gene family FAM90A, which accounts for as many as 25 members in the human reference assembly, has expanded the number of FAM90A clusters across the hominoid lineage. Here we examined the copy number variability of FAM90A genes in 260 HapMap samples of European, African, and Asian ancestry, and showed significant inter-population differences (p<0.0001). Based on the recent study of Stranger et al. (2007; 315:848-853), we also explored the correlation between copy number variability and expression levels of the FAM90A gene family. Despite the high genomic variability, we found a low correlation between FAM90A copy number and expression levels, which could be due to the action of independent trans-acting factors. Our results show that FAM90A is highly variable in copy number between individuals and between populations. However, this variability has little impact on gene expression levels, thus highlighting the importance of genomic variability for genes located in regions containing segmental duplications.

Life-Cycle Effects on Household Expenditures: A Latent-Variable Approach

Using data from the Spanish household budget survey, we investigate life- cycle effects on several product expenditures. A latent-variable model approach is adopted to evaluate the impact of income on expenditures, controlling for the number of members in the family. Two latent factors underlying repeated measures of monetary and non-monetary income are used as explanatory variables in the expenditure regression equations, thus avoiding possible bias associated to the measurement error in income. The proposed methodology also takes care of the case in which product expenditures exhibit a pattern of infrequent purchases. Multiple-group analysis is used to assess the variation of key parameters of the model across various household life-cycle typologies. The analysis discloses significant life-cycle effects on the mean levels of expenditures; it also detects significant life-cycle effects on the way expenditures are affected by income and family size. Asymptotic robust methods are used to account for possible non-normality of the data.