Modelos log-lineares em tabelas de contingência

Os modelos log-lineares permitem enriquecer bastante a análise e interpretação das tabelas de contingência. Embora a nível teórico a sua importância já tenha sido reconhecida há bastante tempo, a nível da sua aplicação prática só há relativamente pouco tempo é que foi reconhecida, devido, sobretudo, às dificuldades de cálculo que lhe são inerentes e que só se resolveram completamente com o desenvolvimento dos computadores e do software adequado. Neste trabalho apresentam-se os métodos básicos da análise log-linear de tabelas de contingência bidimensionais e tridimensionais.

Stratigraphic interpretation of Well-Log data of the Athabasca Oil Sands of Alberta Canada through Pattern recognition and Artificial Intelligence

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

What hides behind the fixed-term contracts wage gap?

In Portugal, about 20% of full-time workers are employed under a fixed-term contract. Using a rich longitudinal matched employer-employee dataset for Portugal, with more than 20 million observations and covering the 2002-2012 period, we confirm the common idea that fixed-term contracts are not desirable when compared to permanent ones, by estimating a conditional wage gap of -1.7 log points. Then, we evaluate the sources of that wage penalty by combining a three way high-dimensional fixed effects model with the decomposition of Gelbach (2014), in which the three dimensions considered are the worker’s unobserved ability, the firm’s compensation wage policy and the job title effect. It is shown that the average worker with a fixed-term contract is less productive than his/her permanent counterparts, explaining -3.92 log points of the FTC wage penalty. Additionally, the sorting of workers into lower-paid job titles is also responsible for -0.59 log points of the wage gap. Surprisingly, we found that the allocation of workers among firms mitigates the existing wage penalty (in 4.23 log points), as fixed-term workers are concentrated into firms with a more generous compensation policy. Finally, following Figueiredo et al. (2014), we further control for the worker-firm match characteristics and reach the conclusion that fixed-term employment relationships have an overrepresentation of low quality worker-firm matches, explaining 0.65 log points of the FTC wage penalty.

Famílias estruturadas de modelos com modelo base ortogonal: Teoria e aplicações

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Matemática com especialização em Estatística pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia.

Cork stoppers industry: defining appropriate mould colonization

Aims: The main aims of this work were the study of cork slabs moulds colonization and the evaluation of the moulds diversity during cork processing steps, in different cork stoppers factories. Simultaneously, it was envisaged to perform an evaluation of the air quality. Methods and Results: Moulds were isolated and identified from cork slabs and cork samples in four cork stoppers factories. The identification was based on morphological characters and microscopic observation of the reproductive structures. Airborne spore dispersion was assessed using a two stage Andersen sampler. It was observed that Chrysonilia sitophila was always present on cork slabs during the maturing period, but mould diversity appeared to be associated to the different factory configurations and processing steps. Conclusions: Spatial separation of the different steps of the process, including physical separation of the maturation step, is essential to guarantee high air quality and appropriate cork slabs colonization, i.e. C. sitophila dominance. The sorting and cutting of the edges of cork slabs after boiling and before the maturing step is also recommended. Significance and Impact of the Study: This study is very important for the cork stopper industry as it gives clear indications on how to keep high quality manufacturing standards and how to avoid occupational health problems.

Cork stoppers industry: defining appropriate mould colonization

Aims: The main aims of this work were the study of cork slabs moulds colonization and the evaluation of the moulds diversity during cork processing steps, in different cork stoppers factories. Simultaneously, it was envisaged to perform an evaluation of the air quality. Methods and Results: Moulds were isolated and identified from cork slabs and cork samples in four cork stoppers factories. The identification was based on morphological characters and microscopic observation of the reproductive structures. Airborne spore dispersion was assessed using a two stage Andersen sampler. It was observed that Chrysonilia sitophila was always present on cork slabs during the maturing period, but mould diversity appeared to be associated to the different factory configurations and processing steps. Conclusions: Spatial separation of the different steps of the process, including physical separation of the maturation step, is essential to guarantee high air quality and appropriate cork slabs colonization, i.e. C. sitophila dominance. The sorting and cutting of the edges of cork slabs after boiling and before the maturing step is also recommended. Significance and Impact of the Study: This study is very important for the cork stopper industry as it gives clear indications on how to keep high quality manufacturing standards and how to avoid occupational health problems.

Modelo com regimes para os preços e a liquidez de acções em bolsa

Dissertação apresentada à Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de mestre em Matemática e Aplicações - Ramo Actuariado, Estatística e Investigação Operacional

An implementation of dynamic fully compressed suffix trees

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática

Sondagem de Belverde (Cenozóico, Península de Setúbal, Portugal). Diagrafias

In the aim of the project "Recognition of the Miocene of the distal region of the Lower Tagus Basin through a borehole with continuous sampling", Temperature, Natural Gamma Ray, Neutron (almost in all the borehole), Sonic, SP and SPR (in two small sections in upper and lower parts of the Miocene Series) geophysical logs were carried on. Interpretation of those logs and comparison with chronological, lithostratigraphical, micropaleontological and clay mineraIs data; helped in the definition of depositional sequences and to obtain paleoenvironmental reconstructions that could lead to a better understanding of the evolution of the Setúbal Península and Lisboa regions Miocene gulf. Log data agree with the lithologic succession observed in the Belverde borehole, essentially silty sandstones/sandy siltstones (with variable clay content) to clays, often with marly intercalations. Sonic logs (and Neutron logs, in general) reflect the sediments porosity. The higher acoustic velocities are often related to compact/massive layers as claystones and/or limestones and rather fossiliferous marly layers. Lower values are obtained for porous, silty sandstones (fossiliferous and with scarce clay content) and bio-calcareous sandstones. As indicative, we obtained the mean values of 2500-3000m/s for the higher velocities and 1300-1600m/s for the lowest ones. ln Natural Gamma Ray log, the radiation peaks can be correlated to often fossiliferous marly micaceous layers. Radioactive micas are present. It seems that the gamma peaks and the depositional sequences previously defined for the Lower Tagus Basin (see Antunes et al., 1999, 2000; Pais et al., 2002) can be correlated, taking also into account the whole available micropaleontological, palynological and isotopic evidence.

Prevalência do consumo de drogas ilícitas nas Forças Armadas estudo epidemiológico num dos ramos

RESUMO: Desde 1976 que as Forças Armadas desenvolvem acções de prevenção do consumo de drogas e álcool. Na década de 80 foi criada capacidade laboratorial e deu-se início a um programa de rastreios toxicológicos. No quinquénio 2001 a 2005, as proporções de resultados positivos, associando todos os tipos de rastreio, variaram entre 3,7% e 1,5%. De Outubro de 2006 a Julho de 2007 realizou-se um estudo analítico transversal, para estimar a prevalência do consumo de drogas (canabinóides, opiáceos, cocaína e anfetaminas) num dos Ramos das Forças Armadas, com base nos despistes realizados pelo seu laboratório. Foi utilizada uma amostra aleatória simples de 1039 militares, profissionais (QP) e contratados (RC), no activo e de ambos os sexos. Desde a nomeação dos militares a rastrear, passando pela cadeia de custódia das amostras até à obtenção do resultado foi utilizado apoio informático específico. O processo de pesquisa utilizou duas técnicas de triagem por imunoensaio e tecnologia de confirmação por GC/MS, de acordo com as recomendações europeias, permitindo estabelecer uma metodologia standard para organizações e empresas. A prevalência estimada, de consumidores de droga, foi de 3,8/1.000, para um erro de 0,37%. O número de casos registado (4) não permitiu a utilização de testes estatísticos que conduzissem à identificação de características determinantes da positividade, mas não deixou de revelar aspectos inesperados. A observação de séries de casos e a realização regular de estudos epidemiológicos, que ajudem a redefinir grupos alvo e a perceber a dimensão, as determinantes e as consequências do consumo de drogas é sugerida, em conclusão.--------------------------------------- RÉSUMÉ: Depuis 1976, les Forces Armées mettent au point des mesures visant à prévenir la consommation de drogues et d'alcool. En 1980, fut créé capacité laboratoriel et ont ensuite commencé un programme de dépistage toxicologique. Au cours des cinq années allant de 2001 à 2005, les proportions de consommateurs, impliquant tous les types de dépistage, allaient de 3,7% à 1,5 %. D'octobre 2006 à juillet 2007, une étude analytique transversale a été organisée pour évaluer la prévalence de l’usage de drogues (cannabis, opiacés, cocaïne et amphétamines) dans une branche de les Forces Armées, basée sur les dépistages faites par un laboratoire militaire, à l'aide d'un échantillon aléatoire de 1039 militaires, professionnels (QP) et sous contract (RC), à l’actif et des deux sexes. Tout au long du procès, de la nomination des donneurs, en passant par la chaine de garde des échantillons, jusqu’à obtention du résultat, il fut employé un appui informatique sécurisé. Le processus de recherche employa deux techniques de tri par imunoessay et la technologie de confirmation GC/MS, selon les recommandations européennes, permettant d'établir une méthodologie standard pour les organisations et les entreprises. La prévalence estimée fut de 3,8/1.000 pour une marge d’erreur de 0,37%. Le nombre de cas enregistrés (4) n'autorise pas l'utilisation de testes statistiques de menant à l'identification de caractéristiques déterminant de la positivité, mais il permet à révéler des aspects inattendus. L'observation de séries de cas et la tenue régulière d’études épidémiologiques, qui contribuent à redéfinir les groupes cibles et de comprendre l'ampleur, les déterminants et les conséquences de l'usage de drogues, est suggéré, en fin de compte.--------------------------------------- ABSTRACT: Since 1976, the Armed Forces, have been developing measures to prevent the use of drugs and alcohol. In 1980, was created laboratory facility which then started a program of toxicological screenings. In the five years running from 2001 to 2005, the proportions of consumers, involving all types of screening, ranged from 3,7% to 1,5%. From October 2006 to July 2007, a cross-sectional study was held to estimate the prevalence of drug use (cannabinoids, opiates, cocaine and amphetamines) in one branch of the Portuguese Armed Forces, based on laboratory screenings, using a random sample of 1039 military, professional (QP) and enlisted (RC), active-duty and of both sexes. Specific computer support was used all the way, from the appointment, including the chain of custody of samples, to the obtaining of the result. The process of search used two techniques for sorting by immunoassay and confirmation technology GC/MS, according to European recommendations, allowing to establish a standard methodology for organizations and companies. The estimated prevalence of drug users was 3.8/1.000 for a 0.37% error (95% confidence interval). The number of cases registered (4) does not permit use of statistical testing leading to the identification of characteristics weighing in the establishing to extrapolate for the population, but it allows revealing unexpected aspects. The observation of series of cases and the regular holding of epidemiological studies, which help redefine target groups and to understand the extent, the determinants and consequences of drug use, is suggested, in conclusion.

Prognostic modelling of breast cancer patients: a benchmark of predictive models with external validation

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores – Sistemas Digitais e Percepcionais pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Burrows-wheeler transform in secondary memory

Master’s Thesis in Computer Engineering

Implementação do método de suspensão quantitativa para avaliar a actividade bactericida de desinfectantes químicos, de acordo com a Norma Europeia EN 1040

As bactérias patogénicas presentes nos sistemas de processamento de alimentos podem ser potencialmente causadoras de doenças alimentares graves, quando sobrevivem à acção bactericida de desinfectantes. Esta acção depende da eficácia das substâncias activas que fazem parte da formulação do desinfectante e das condições ambientais onde se processa a interacção desinfectante – bactéria, sendo ainda específica para cada estirpe bacteriana. Este trabalho teve, como propósito, a implementação de um método que permita avaliar, in vitro, a eficácia bactericida de desinfectantes comerciais contra estirpes bacterianas que são potencialmente causadores de doenças de origem alimentar. A eficácia do desinfectante foi avaliada seguindo a Norma EN1040 e aplicando o método de diluição-neutralização. Para além das estirpes recomendadas naquele documento normativo, nomeadamente, Pseudomonas aeruginosa e Staphylococcus aureus, foram também utilizadas Escherichia coli, Enterococcus faecalis, Salmonella Typhimurium e Listeria monocytogenes. Os desinfectantes foram seleccionados com base nas suas formulações, tendo sido escolhidos desinfectantes cujos princípios activos são, respectivamente: tensioactivos aniónicos; alcalis inorgânicos; hidrocloreto de biguanida polimérica; álcool etoxilado ou cloreto benzalcónio. Foram seleccionados como neutralizantes: tampão fosfato, tiosulfato de sódio, gema de ovo fresca e polisorbato 80 com histidina. Após cada ensaio, o número de bactérias sobreviventes foi obtido pelo cálculo da redução logarítmica decimal, a partir do número de unidades formadoras de colónia presentes em cada placa. A eficácia do desinfectante, na inactivação de cada estirpe alvo, foi classificada numa escala de redução logarítmica à qual 5 log corresponde a redução mínima aceitável do número de colónias quando o tempo de contacto é de 5 minutos, e a temperatura do ensaio é 20ºC. Conclui-se que o método de diluição-neutralização é sensível para todas as estirpes testadas. A gema de ovo fresca revelou ser o melhor neutralizante para desinfectantes contendo tensioactivos aniónicos, enquanto o tampão fosfato é mais adequado para neutralizar desinfectantes contendo alcalis inorgânicos. Porém, nenhum dos neutralizantes testados mostrou ser adequado para os desinfectantes contendo cloreto de benzalcónio ou hidrocloreto biguanida polimérica ou álcool etoxilado. Conclui-se também que as condições laboratoriais implementadas são as adequadas para testar a acção bactericida de desinfectantes utilizados em sistemas de processamento de alimentos.

Análise de robustez de estruturas sujeitas a eventos sísmicos consecutivos

Dissertação para obtencão do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil - Perfil Estruturas

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.