13 resultados para Population viability analysis


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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

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Increased demands on the capacity of the railway network gave rise to new issues related to the dynamic response of railway tracks subjected to moving vehicles. Thus, it becomes important to evaluate the applicability of traditionally used simplified models which have a closed form solution. Regarding simplified models, transversal vibrations of a beam on a visco-elastic foundation subjected to a moving load are considered. Governing equations are obtained by Hamilton’s principle. Shear distortion, rotary inertia and effect of axial force are accounted for. The load is introduced as a time varying force moving at a constant velocity. Transversal vibrations induced by the load are solved by the normal-mode analysis. Reflected waves at the extremities of the full beam are avoided by introduction of semi-infinite elements. Firstly, the critical velocity obtained from this model is compared with results of an undamped Euler- Bernoulli formulation with zero axial force. Secondly, a finite element model in ABAQUS is examined. The new contribution lies in the introduction of semi- infinite elements and in the first step to a systematic comparison, which have not been published so fa

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RESUMO - Este trabalho consiste numa análise sobre a viabilidade económico-financeira do projecto de construção de uma Unidade de Cuidados Continuados Integrados de Longa Duração e Manutenção pela Fundação COI, que pretende ser uma resposta adequada à diversidade de fenómenos que têm origem no envelhecimento populacional, inserindo-se no modelo de prestação de cuidados de saúde e apoio social preconizado pela Rede Nacional de Cuidados Continuados Integrados. Em termos estruturais, numa primeira fase, o trabalho faz uma análise sobre o estado da arte dos cuidados continuado, nomeadamente através da sua conceptualização e enquadramento, focando os aspectos e características da RNCCI, nomeadamente os aspectos relacionados com a sustentabilidade financeira e os desafios futuros que este sector da saúde se confronta. Numa segunda fase, o trabalho apresenta o projecto de investimento alvo do estudo de caso, mediante o enquadramento histórico e caracterização da Fundação COI, sendo descrita especificamente a tipologia de longa duração e manutenção e o projecto em termos da sua estrutura física e humana. Numa terceira fase, o trabalho estuda a racionalidade do projecto de investimento, através da análise económico-financeira. Tendo-se concluído, com a utilização de indicadores de avaliação e decisão de investimentos, que a ULDM, é viável. Deve-se contudo ter em conta que a sua viabilidade é sensível a hipotéticas alterações de cenários, nomeadamente perante diferentes taxas de ocupação ou alteração do modelo de pagamento. ----------------------- ABSTRACT - This paper consists on analyzing the economical and financial viability of a project of Integrated Continuous Cares on Long-Term and Maintenance Unit (LTMU), managed by COI Foundation, that can create a correct social answer on the various aspects and phenomenon’s that have their origin in an aged population. This kind of project belongs in the role model of social and health cares of the National Network of Integrated Continuous Cares (NNICC). In a first stage the paper is focused on the analysis of the state of the present services of the continuous cares in Portugal, more concretely of his conceptualization and social frame, putting under the lights the aspects and characteristics of the NNICC, more closely the parts related to their financial sustainability and the challenges that this health sector faces nowadays. The next stage is about the investment project applied to this case-study, given his social and historical frame and attending to the specific characteristics of the COI Foundation. It’s also describing its specific LTMU typology under the involved physic and human structure. Finally this paper study the investment project rationality trough scientific methods like its economic–financial analysis. The conclusion, using decision and evaluation procedures that lead to financial indicators, is that the LTMU, is viable. However, the viability of the project is sensible to an hypothetical change of scenario, namely with different rates of change of occupation or type of payment.

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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

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ABSTRACT: Financing is a critical factor in ensuring the optimal development and delivery of a mental health system. The primary method of financing worldwide is tax-based. However many low income countries depend on out-of-pocket payments. There is a report on Irish Health Care funding but none that deals exclusively with mental health care. This paper analyses the various financial models that exist globally with respect to financing the mental health sector, examines the impact of various models on service users, especially in terms of relative ‘financial burden’ and provides a more detailed examination of the current mental health funding situation in Ireland After extensive internet and hardcopy research on the above topics, the findings were analysed and a number of recommendations were reached. Mental health service should be free at the point of delivery to achieve universal coverage. Government tax-based funding or mandatory social insurance with government top-ups, as required, appears the optimal option, although there is no one funding system applicable everywhere. Out-of-pocket funding can create a crippling financial burden for service users. It is important to employ improved revenue collection systems, eliminate waste, provide equitable resource distribution, ring fence mental health funding and cap the number of visits, where necessary. Political, economic, social and cultural factors play a role in funding decisions and this can be clearly seen in the context of the current economic recession in Ireland. Only 33% of the Irish population has access to free public health care and the number health insurance policy holders has dramatically declined, resulting in increased out-of-pocket payments. This approach risks negatively impacting on the social determinants of health, increasing health inequalities and negatively affecting economic productivity. It is therefore important the Irish government examines other options to provide funding for mental health services.

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

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The rapid growth of big cities has been noticed since 1950s when the majority of world population turned to live in urban areas rather than villages, seeking better job opportunities and higher quality of services and lifestyle circumstances. This demographic transition from rural to urban is expected to have a continuous increase. Governments, especially in less developed countries, are going to face more challenges in different sectors, raising the essence of understanding the spatial pattern of the growth for an effective urban planning. The study aimed to detect, analyse and model the urban growth in Greater Cairo Region (GCR) as one of the fast growing mega cities in the world using remote sensing data. Knowing the current and estimated urbanization situation in GCR will help decision makers in Egypt to adjust their plans and develop new ones. These plans should focus on resources reallocation to overcome the problems arising in the future and to achieve a sustainable development of urban areas, especially after the high percentage of illegal settlements which took place in the last decades. The study focused on a period of 30 years; from 1984 to 2014, and the major transitions to urban were modelled to predict the future scenarios in 2025. Three satellite images of different time stamps (1984, 2003 and 2014) were classified using Support Vector Machines (SVM) classifier, then the land cover changes were detected by applying a high level mapping technique. Later the results were analyzed for higher accurate estimations of the urban growth in the future in 2025 using Land Change Modeler (LCM) embedded in IDRISI software. Moreover, the spatial and temporal urban growth patterns were analyzed using statistical metrics developed in FRAGSTATS software. The study resulted in an overall classification accuracy of 96%, 97.3% and 96.3% for 1984, 2003 and 2014’s map, respectively. Between 1984 and 2003, 19 179 hectares of vegetation and 21 417 hectares of desert changed to urban, while from 2003 to 2014, the transitions to urban from both land cover classes were found to be 16 486 and 31 045 hectares, respectively. The model results indicated that 14% of the vegetation and 4% of the desert in 2014 will turn into urban in 2025, representing 16 512 and 24 687 hectares, respectively.

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The Keystone XL has a big role for transforming Canadian oil to the USA. The function of the pipeline is decreasing the dependency of the American oil industry on other countries and it will help to limit external debt. The proposed pipeline seeks the most suitable route which cannot damage agricultural and natural water recourses such as the Ogallala Aquifer. Using the Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques, the suggested path in this study got extremely high correct results that will help in the future to use the least cost analysis for similar studies. The route analysis contains different weighted overlay surfaces, each, was influenced by various criteria (slope, geology, population and land use). The resulted least cost path routes for each weighted overlay surface were compared with the original proposed pipeline and each displayed surface was more effective than the proposed Keystone XL pipeline.

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Hospital-acquired infections (HAIs) delay healing, prolong Hospital stay, and increase both Hospital costs and risk of death. This study aims to estimate the extra length of stay and mortality rate attributable to each of the following HAIs: wound infection (WI); bloodstream infection (BSI); urinary infections (UI); and Hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP). The study population consisted of patients discharged in CHLC in 2014. Data was collected to identify demographic information, surgical operations, development of HAIs and its outputs. The study used regressions and a matched strategy to compare cases (infected) and controls (uninfected). The matching criteria were: age, sex, week and type of admission, number of admissions, major diagnostic category and type of discharge. When compared to matched controls, cases with HAI had a higher mortality rate and greater length of stay. WI related to hip or knee surgery, increased mortality rate by 27.27% and the length of stay by 74.97 days. WI due to colorectal surgery caused an extra mortality rate of 10.69% and an excess length of stay of 20.23 days. BSI increased Hospital stay by 28.80 days and mortality rate by 32.27%. UI caused an average additional length of stay of 19.66 days and risk of death of 12.85%. HAP resulted in an extra Hospital stay of 25.06 days and mortality rate of 24.71%. This study confirms the results of the previous literature that patients experiencing HAIs incur in an excess of mortality rates and Hospital stay, and, overall, it presents worse results comparing with other countries.

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RESUMO: Actualmente, a única possibilidade de cura para doentes com adenocarcinoma do pâncreas (PDAC) é a ressecção cirúrgica, no início deste estudo, perguntamo-nos se os predictores clínico-patológicos clássicos de prognostico poderiam ser validados em uma grande cohort de doentes com cancro do pâncreas ressecável e se outros predictores clínicos poderiam ter um papel na decisão de que doentes beneficiariam de ressecção cirúrgica. No capítulo 2, observamos que até 30% dos doentes morrem no primeiro ano após a ressecção cirúrgica, pelo que o nosso objectivo foi determinar factores pré-operatórios que se correlacionam com mortalidade precoce após ressecação cirúrgica com recurso a um instrumento estatisticamente validado, o Charlson-Age Comorbidity Index (CACI), determinamos que um CACI score superior a 4 foi preditivo de internamentos prolongados (p <0,001), complicações pós-operatórias (p = 0,042), e mortalidade em 1 ano pós- ressecção cirúrgica (p <0,001). Um CACI superior a 6 triplicou a mortalidade no primeiro ano pós-cirurgia e estes doentes têm menos de 50% de probabilidade de estarem vivos um ano após a cirurgia. No capítulo 3, o nosso objectivo foi identificar uma proteína de superfície que se correlacionasse estatisticamente com o prognostico de doentes com adenocarcinoma do pâncreas e permitisse a distinção de subgrupos de doentes de acordo com as suas diferenças moleculares, perguntamo-nos ainda se essa proteína poderia ser um marcador de células-estaminais. No nosso trabalho anterior observamos que as células tumorais na circulação sanguínea apresentavam genes com características bifenotípica epitelial e mesenquimal, enriquecimento para genes de células estaminais (ALDH1A1 / ALDH1A2 e KLF4), e uma super-expressão de genes da matriz extracelular (colagénios, SPARC, e DCN) normalmente identificados no estroma de PDAC. Após a avaliação dos tumores primários com RNA-ISH, muitos dos genes identificados, foram encontrados co-localizando em uma sub-população de células na região basal dos ductos pancreáticos malignos. Além disso, observamos que estas células expressam o marcador SV2A neuroendócrino, e o marcador de células estaminais ALDH1A1/2. Em comparação com tumores negativos para SV2, os doentes com tumores SV2 positivos apresentaram níveis mais baixos de CA 19-9 (69% vs. 52%, p = 0,012), tumores maiores (> 4 cm, 23% vs. 10%, p = 0,0430), menor invasão de gânglios linfáticos (69% vs. 86%, p = 0,005) e tumores mais diferenciados (69% vs. 57%, p = 0,047). A presença de SV2A foi associada com uma sobrevida livre de doença mais longa (HR: 0,49 p = 0,009) bem como melhor sobrevida global (HR: 0,54 p = 0,018). Em conjunto, esta informação aponta para dois subtipos diferentes de adenocarcinoma do pâncreas, e estes subtipos co-relacionam estatisticamente com o prognostico de doentes, sendo este subgrupo definido pela presença do clone celular SV2A / ALDH1A1/2 positivo com características neuroendócrinas. No Capítulo 4, a expressão de SV2A no cancro do pâncreas foi validado em linhas celulares primárias. Demonstramos a heterogeneidade do adenocarcinoma do pâncreas de acordo com características clonais neuroendócrinas. Ao comparar as linhas celulares expressando SV2 com linhas celulares negativas, verificamos que as linhas celulares SV2+ eram mais diferenciadas, diferindo de linhas celulares SV2 negativas no que respeita a mutação KRAS, proliferação e a resposta à quimioterapia. No capítulo 5, perguntamo-nos se o clone celular SV2 positivo poderia explicar a resistência a quimioterapia observada em doentes. Observamos um aumento absoluto de clones celulares expressando SV2A, em múltiplas linhas de evidência - doentes, linhas de células primárias e xenotransplantes. Embora, tenhamos sido capazes de demonstrar que o adenocarcinoma do pâncreas é uma doença heterogénea, consideramos que a caracterização genética destes clones celulares expressando SV2A é de elevada importância. Pretendemos colmatar esta limitação com as seguintes estratégias: Após o tratamento com quimioterapia neoadjuvante na nossa coorte, realizamos microdissecação a laser das amostras primarias em parafina, de forma a analisar mutações genéticas observadas no adenocarcinoma pancreático; em segundo lugar, pretendemos determinar consequências de knockdown da expressão de SV2A em nossas linhas celulares seguindo-se o tratamento com gemicitabina para determinação do papel funcional de SV2A; finalmente, uma vez que os nossos esforços anteriores com um promotor - repórter e SmartFlare ™ falharam, o próximo passo será realizar RNA-ISH PrimeFlow™ seguido de FACS e RNA-seq para caracterização deste clone celular. Em conjunto, conseguimos provar com várias linhas de evidência, que o adenocarcinoma pancreático é uma doença heterogénea, definido por um clone de células que expressam SV2A, com características neuroendócrinas. A presença deste clone no tecido de doentes correlaciona-se estatisticamente com o prognostico da doença, incluindo sobrevida livre de doença e sobrevida global. Juntamente com padrões de proliferação e co-expressão de ALDH1A1/2, este clone parece apresentar um comportamento de células estaminais e está associado a resistência a quimioterapia, uma vez que a sua expressão aumenta após agressão química, quer em doentes, quer em linhas de células primárias.----------------------------- ABSTRACT: Currently, the only chance of cure for patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma is surgical resection, at the beginning of my thesis studies, we asked if the classical clinicopathologic predictors of outcome could be validated in a large cohort of patients with early stage pancreatic cancer and if other clinical predictors could have a role on deciding which patients would benefit from surgery. In chapter 2, we found that up to 30% of patients die within the first year after curative intent surgery for pancreatic adenocarcinoma. We aimed at determining pre-operative factors that would correlate with early mortality following resection for pancreatic cancer using a statistically validated tool, the Charlson-Age Comorbidity Index (CACI). We found that a CACI score greater than 4 was predictive of increased length of stay (p<0.001), post-operative complications (p=0.042), and mortality within 1-year of pancreatic resection (p<0.001). A CACI score of 6 or greater increased 3-fold the odds of death within the first year. Patients with a high CACI score have less than 50% likelihood of being alive 1 year after surgery. In chapter 3 we aimed at identifying a surface protein that correlates with patient’s outcome and distinguishes sub-groups of patients according to their molecular differences and if this protein could be a cancer stem cell marker. The most abundant class of circulating tumor cells identified in our previous work was found to have biphenotypic features of epithelial to mesenchymal transition, enrichment for stem-cell associated genes (ALDH1A1/ALDH1A2 and KLF4), and an overexpression of extracellular matrix genes (Collagens, SPARC, and DCN) normally found in the stromal microenvironment of PDAC primary tumors. Upon evaluation of matched primary tumors with RNA-ISH, many of the genes identified were found to co-localize in a sub-population of cells at the basal region of malignant pancreatic ducts. In addition, these cells expressed the neuroendocrine marker SV2A, and the stem cell marker ALDH1A1/2. Compared to SV2 negative tumors, patients with SV2 positive tumors were more likely to present with lower CA 19-9 (69% vs. 52%, p = 0.012), bigger tumors (size > 4 cm, 23% vs. 10%, p= 0.0430), less nodal involvement (69% vs. 86%, p = 0.005) and lower histologic grade (69% vs. 57%, p = 0.047). The presence of SV2A expressing cells was associated with an improved disease free survival (HR: 0.49 p=0.009) and overall survival (HR: 0.54 p=0.018) and correlated linearly with ALDH1A2. Together, this information points to two different sub-types of pancreatic adenocarcinoma, and these sub-types correlated with patients’ outcome and were defined by the presence of a SV2A/ ALDH1A1/2 expressing clone with neuroendocrine features. In Chapter 4, SV2A expression in cancer was validated in primary cell lines. We were able to demonstrate pancreatic adenocarcinoma heterogeneity according to neuroendocrine clonal features. When comparing SV2 expressing cell lines with SV2 negative cell lines, we found that SV2+ cell lines were more differentiated and differ from SV2 negative cell lines regarding KRAS mutation, proliferation and response to chemotherapy. In Chapter 5 we aimed at determining if this SV2 positive clone could explain chemoresistance observed in patients. We found an absolute increase in SV2A expressing cells, with multiple lines of evidence, in patients, primary cell lines and xenografts. Although, we have been able to show evidence that pancreatic adenocarcinoma is a heterogeneous disease, our findings warrant further investigation. To further characterize SV2A expressing clones after treatment with neoadjuvant chemotherapy in our cohort, we have performed laser capture microdissection of the paraffin embedded tissue in this study and will analyze the tissue for known genetic mutations in pancreatic adenocarcinoma; secondly, we want to know what will happen after knocking down SV2A expression in our cell lines followed by treatment with gemcitabine to determine if SV2A is functionally important; finally, since our previous efforts with a promoter – reporter and SmartFlare™ have failed, we will utilize a novel PrimeFlow™ RNA-ISH assay followed by FACS and RNA sequencing to further characterize this cellular clone. Overall our data proves, with multiple lines of evidence, that pancreatic adenocarcinoma is a heterogeneous disease, defined by a clone of SV2A expressing cells, with neuroendocrine features. The presence of this clone in patients’ tissue correlates with patient’s disease free survival and overall survival. Together with patterns of proliferation and ALDH1A1/2 co-expression, this clone seems to present a stem-cell-like behavior and is associated with chemoresistance, since it increases after chemotherapy, both in patients and primary cell lines.

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Welle Laser is a Brazilian company that manufactures marking and engraving machines mainly for large-scale industry segments providing solutions that help increase productivity. Welle laser has 60% market share in Brazil and decided to go internationally in 2015, mainly to increase revenues and diversify business risks. Welle opened an office in Switzerland and celebrated a contract with a Mexican company to distribute their machines in Mexico. The next step for Welle is expanding its operation to USA. In my project I accessed the viability and reasons to enter the US market, the region where Welle should start its operation, and the best entry mode strategy.