Almirante: Evaluating the board game: Board game, startup, discounted cash flow, venture capital method, real options

This thesis evaluates a start-up company (Jogos Almirante Lda) whose single asset is a board game named Almirante. It aims to conclude whether it makes sense to create a company or just earn copyrights. The thesis analyzes the board game’s market, as part of the general toy’s market, from which some data exists: European countries as well as the USA. In this work it is analyzed the several ways to finance a start-up company and then present an overview of the valuation of the Jogos Almirante based on three different methods: Discounted Cash Flow, Venture Capital Method and Real Options.

Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Into a new phase of the research on restructuring of work in the knowledge society: the Third WORKS General Assembly in Sofia (Bulgaria)

The WORKS Project started two years ago (2005), involving the efforts of research institutes of 13 European countries with the main purpose of improving the understanding of the major changes in work in the knowledge-based society, taking account both of global forces and the regional diversity within Europe. This research meeting in Sofia (Bulgaria) aimed to present synthetically the massive amount of data collected in the case studies (occupational and organisational) and with the quantitative research during last year.

Playing Newtonian Games with Modellus

This article is a short introduction on how to use Modellus (a computer package that is freely available on the Internet and used in the IOP Advancing Physics course) to build physics games using Newton’s laws, expressed as differential equations. Solving systems of differential equations is beyond most secondary-school or first-year college students. However, with Modellus, the solution is simply the output of the usual physical reasoning: define the force law, compute its magnitude and components, use it to obtain the acceleration components, then the velocity components and, finally, use the velocity components to find the coordinates.

Playing outside: jazz e sociedade em Portugal na Perpectiva de duas escolas

Dissertação apresentada para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Etnomusicologia

Participação de crianças com multidificiência e deficiência visual em actividades na escola : orientações para a intervenção

O crescente reconhecimento das limitações das crianças com multideficiência e deficiência visual, quer nas interacções com os parceiros quer de uma forma geral nos ambientes em que se inserem, motivou este estudo, que pretendeu analisar o nível de participação destas crianças em actividades na escola. Considerando a importância de contribuir com informação para orientações na intervenção educativa de crianças com MDVI, realizou-se um estudo que analisa o seu comportamento e envolvimento em actividades da escola. Para a realização deste estudo, observaram-se os comportamentos de três crianças com MDVI, com idades compreendidas entre os 9 e os 10 anos, em três ambientes da escola, nomeadamente a sala de aula, o refeitório e o recreio, e em três actividades (pintura, jogos, almoço, saltar à corda, andar de baloiço e subir escadas) de forma a analisar o seu envolvimento e limitações nas actividades. Na análise dos dados das observações foram identificadas quatro categorias de participação: Inicia, Perde Oportunidade, Inicia com Apoio e Comportamento Potencialmente Comunicativo, registando-se valores que permitiram encontrar características dos comportamentos das crianças observadas, assim como o seu nível de participação em actividades na escola. Os resultados do estudo permitiram verificar que a participação das crianças em actividades está condicionada pelos ambientes em que estão envolvidas, e não pelas problemáticas que cada criança apresenta.----------------------------------------ABSTRACT: The motivation of this study is the increasing knowledge and awareness of children who have multiple disabilities and a visual impairment (MDVI) and the limitation with their peer interactions and in general. The purpose of this study was to analyze the participation level of children with MDVI in school activities. Considering the importance of contributing with guidelines for educational intervention with children with MDVI, we did a study that analyzes the behavior and the level of participation of MDVI children in school activities. In this research study we observed the behavior of three children with MDVI, of 9/10 years old, in three different environments at school; the classroom, the canteen and the playground, and in different activities (painting, playing games, having lunch, skipping rope, etc), in order to analyze their participation and their activity limitations in the activities referred. Data analysis identified four categories of participation: Initiation; Missed Opportunities; Initiation with support and Potentially communicative behavior. Results of data analysis allowed us to find out characteristics of children´s behavior, as well as their level of participation in activities. The main findings of this research allowed us to verify that the child’s engagement in activities depends on the environments where they are located and not on their disability.

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Knowledge and practices of general practitioners of district Peshawar about schizophrenia

ABSTRACT: Schizophrenia with its disabling features has been placed in the top ten of global burden of disease and is associated with long-term decline in functional ability. General Practitioners not only have an important role in treating patients with an established diagnosis of schizophrenia but they can also contribute significantly by identifying people in early stages of psychosis as they are the first hand medical help available and the duration of untreated psychosis is a good indicator of patient’s prognosis. This cross sectional survey, conducted at the clinics of General Practitioners, was designed to assess the knowledge and practices of general practitioners in Peshawar on diagnosis and treatment of schizophrenia. A semi structured questionnaire was used to assess their knowledge and practices regarding schizophrenia. The Knowledge/Practice was then categorized as good or poor based on their responses to the questions of the administered questionnaire. Overall, the results showed that the knowledge and practices of general practitioners of district Peshawar were poor regarding schizophrenia and may be responsible for delayed diagnosis, inadequate treatment and poor prognosis.

UsaGame – A new methodology to support user- centered design of touchscreen game applications

Dissertação para Obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

Expanding the magic circle in pervasive casual play

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Informática

Spatial Patterns and Irregularities of the electoral data: general elections in Canada

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Collecting data for indoor mapping of the university of Münster via a location based game

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Corporate finance in general equilibrium models with incomplete markets: A survey

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Three essays on game theory and bargaining

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Avatars and the «Imitation Game» – can machines smile?

Considering Alan Turing’s challenge in «Computing Machinery and Intelligence» (1950) – can machines play the «imitation game»? – it is proposed that the requirements of the Turing test are already implicitly being used for checking the credibility of virtual characters and avatars. Like characters, Avatars aim to visually express emotions (the exterior signs of the existence of feeling) and its creators have to resort to emotion codes. Traditional arts have profusely contributed for this field and, together with the science of anatomy, shaped the grounds for current Facial Action Coding System (FACS) and their databases. However, FACS researchers have to improve their «instruction tables» so that the machines will be able, in a near future, to be programmed to carry out the operation of recognizing human expressions (face and body) and classify them adequately. For the moment, the reproductions have to resort to the copy of real life expressions, and the presente smile of avatars comes from mirroring their human users.