Exploring profitability diversity through financial statement analysis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Bond fund runs: The financial crisis case

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Three essays in financial markets

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Macroeconomic impacts of politics and policy: Applications to financial and real markets

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Noise traders, rational traders, and the rest: A new approach to efficient financial markets

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Tool for discovering sequential patterns in financial markets

The goal of this thesis is the study of a tool that can help analysts in finding sequential patterns. This tool will have a focus on financial markets. A study will be made on how new and relevant knowledge can be mined from real life information, potentially giving investors, market analysts, and economists new basis to make informed decisions. The Ramex Forum algorithm will be used as a basis for the tool, due to its ability to find sequential patterns in financial data. So that it further adapts to the needs of the thesis, a study of relevant improvements to the algorithm will be made. Another important aspect of this algorithm is the way that it displays the patterns found, even with good results it is difficult to find relevant patterns among all the studied samples without a proper result visualization component. As such, different combinations of parameterizations and ways to visualize data will be evaluated and their influence in the analysis of those patterns will be discussed. In order to properly evaluate the utility of this tool, case studies will be performed as a final test. Real information will be used to produce results and those will be evaluated in regards to their accuracy, interest, and relevance.

State detection in a financial portfolio: a self-organizing maps approach for financial time series

This study analyses financial data using the result characterization of a self-organized neural network model. The goal was prototyping a tool that may help an economist or a market analyst to analyse stock market series. To reach this goal, the tool shows economic dependencies and statistics measures over stock market series. The neural network SOM (self-organizing maps) model was used to ex-tract behavioural patterns of the data analysed. Based on this model, it was de-veloped an application to analyse financial data. This application uses a portfo-lio of correlated markets or inverse-correlated markets as input. After the anal-ysis with SOM, the result is represented by micro clusters that are organized by its behaviour tendency. During the study appeared the need of a better analysis for SOM algo-rithm results. This problem was solved with a cluster solution technique, which groups the micro clusters from SOM U-Matrix analyses. The study showed that the correlation and inverse-correlation markets projects multiple clusters of data. These clusters represent multiple trend states that may be useful for technical professionals.

Integrated care approaches and skills mix policies in Europe

ABSTRACT - Background: Integration of health care services is emerging as a central challenge of health care delivery, particularly for patients with elderly and complex chronic conditions. In 2003, the World Health Organization (WHO) already began to identify it as one of the key pathways to improve primary care. In 2005, the European Commission declared integrated care as vital for the sustainability of social protection systems in Europe. Nowadays, it is recognized as a core component of health and social care reforms across European countries. Implementing integrated care requires coordination between settings, organizations, providers and professionals. In order to address the challenge of integration in such complex scenario, an effective workforce is required capable of working across interdependent settings. The World Health Report 2006 noted that governments should prepare their workforce and explore what tasks the different levels of health workers are trained to do and are capable of performing (skills mix). Comparatively to other European countries, Portugal is at an early stage in what integrated care is concerned facing a growing elderly population and the subsequent increase in the pressure on institutions and professionals to provide social and medical care in the most cost-effective way. In 2006 the Portuguese government created the Portuguese Network for Integrated Care Development (PNICD) to solve the existing long-term gap in social support and healthcare. On what concerns health workforce, the Portuguese government already recognized the importance of redefine careers keeping professional motivation and satisfaction. Aim of the study: This study aims to contribute new evidence to the debate surrounding integrated care and skills mix policies in Europe. It also seeks to provide the first evidence that incorporates both the current dynamics of implementing integrated care in Portugal and the developments of international literature. The first ambition of our study is to contribute to the growing interest in integrated care and to the ongoing research in this area by identifying its different approaches and retrieve a number of experiences in some European countries. Our second goal of this research is to produce an update on the knowledge developed on skills mix to the international healthcare management community and to policy makers involved in reforming healthcare systems and organizations. To better inform Portuguese health policies makers in a third stage we explore the current dynamics of implementing integrated care in Portugal and contextualize them with the developments reported in the international literature. Methodology: This is essentially an exploratory and descriptive study using qualitative methodology. In order to identify integrated care approaches in Europe, a systematic literature review was undertaken which resulted in a paper published in the Journal of Management and Marketing in Health care titled: Approaches to developing integrated care in Europe: a systematic literature review. This article was recommended and included into a list of references identified by The King's Fund Library. A second systematic literature review was undertaken which resulted in a paper published in the International Journal of Healthcare Management titled: Skills mix in healthcare: An international update for the management debate. Semi-structured interviews were performed on experts representing the regional coordination teams of the Portuguese Network for Integrated Care Development. In a last stage a questionnaire survey was developed based on the findings of both systematic literature reviews and semi-structured interviews. Conclusions: Even though integrated care is a worldwide trend in health care reforms, there is no unique definition. Definitions can be grouped according to their sectorial focus: community-based care, combined health and social care, combined acute and primary care, the integration of providers, and in a more comprehensive approach the whole health system. Indeed, models that seek to apply the principles of integrated care have a similar background and are continually evolving and depend on the different initiatives taken at national level. . Despite the fact that we cannot argue that there is one single set typology of models for integrated care, it is possible to identify and categorize some of the basic approaches that have been taken in attempts to implement integrated care according to: changes in organizational structure, workforce reconfiguring, and changes in the financing system. The systematic literature review on skills mix showed that despite the widely acknowledged interest on skills mix initiatives there is a lack of evidence on skills mix implications, constraints, outcomes, and quality impact that would allow policy makers to take sustained and evidence-based decisions. Within the Portuguese health system, the integrated care approach is rather organizational and financial, whereas little attention is given to workforce integration. On what concerns workforce planning Portugal it is still in the stage of analyzing the acceptability of health workforce skills mix. In line with the international approaches, integration of health and social services and bridging primary and acute care are the main goals of the national government strategy. The findings from our interviews clarify perceptions which show no discrepancy with the related literature but are rather scarce comparing to international experience. Informants hold a realistic but narrow view of integrated care related issues. They seem to be limited to the regional context, requiring a more comprehensive perspective. The questionnaire developed in this thesis is an instrument which, when applied, will allow policy makers to understand the basic set of concepts and managerial motivations behind national and regional integrated care programs. The instrument developed can foster evidence on the three essential components of integrated care policies: organizational, financial, and human resources development, and can give additional input on the context in which integrated care is being developed, the type of providers and organizations involved, barriers and constraints, and the workforce skills mix planning related strategies. The thesis was successful in recognizing differences between countries and interventions and the instrument developed will allow a better comprehension of the international options available and how to address the vital components of integrated care programs.

The impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on the recovering from the financial crisis: Equity returns of the banking sector

This paper analyses, through a dynamic panel data model, the impact of the Financial and the European Debt crisis on the equity returns of the banking system. The model is also extended to specifically investigate the impact on countries who received rescue packages. The sample under analysis considers eleven countries from January 2006 to June 2013. The main conclusion is that there was in fact a structural change in banks’ excess returns due to the outbreak of the European Debt Crisis, when stock markets were still recovering from the Financial Crisis of 2008.

Enhancement of an implemented rating model and impact on existing risk management processes: A hands-on approach from financial supplier risk management within the automotive industry

The purpose of this paper is to conduct a methodical drawback analysis of a financial supplier risk management approach which is currently implemented in the automotive industry. Based on identified methodical flaws, the risk assessment model is further developed by introducing a malus system which incorporates hidden risks into the model and by revising the derivation of the most central risk measure in the current model. Both methodical changes lead to significant enhancements in terms of risk assessment accuracy, supplier identification and workload efficiency.

Fatores que influenciam a adesão à terapêutica antirretroviral : a perceção dos enfermeiros de um serviço de infeciologia

RESUMO - A investigação no âmbito da infeção por VIH/SIDA tem tido avanços notáveis, nomeadamente no que se refere à evolução da terapêutica antirretroviral, sendo atualmente o único meio de controlar a doença. Nesta área, a compreensão da problemática da adesão torna-se importante para as instituições e para os profissionais de saúde, quer pelas taxas de morbilidade e mortalidade associadas à doença, quer pelos problemas de saúde pública e pelos gastos financeiros das organizações de saúde. A adesão ao regime terapêutico é um conceito que engloba tanto o cumprimento da prescrição medicamentosa, como dos comportamentos promotores de saúde. O presente estudo teve como objetivo identificar como os enfermeiros, a desempenhar funções num serviço de infeciologia, percecionam a adesão à terapêutica antirretroviral, por indivíduos portadores de VIH/SIDA. Participaram neste estudo nove enfermeiras a desempenhar funções no serviço de Medicina 1/Infeciologia/HDI do Hospital Fernando Fonseca, EPE, que reuniam os critérios definidos. Como metodologia para a identificação da perceção dos enfermeiros realizou-se um estudo qualitativo e utilizou-se uma entrevista semi-estruturada. Da análise das entrevistas, resultaram diferentes áreas temáticas. Os resultados obtidos evidenciam a importância atribuída à adesão à terapêutica antirretroviral e demostram que o acompanhamento dos doentes pelos profissionais e instituições de saúde permite o desenvolvimento de estratégias promotoras de adesão. Verifica-se que é ainda necessário percorrer um longo caminho, de forma a se obterem resultados ótimos de adesão. Contudo, os resultados obtidos no presente estudo são um incentivo para o desenvolvimento de estratégias de adesão e para a melhoria da gestão da qualidade.

Fiscal policy under financial stress: A threshold VAR approach

The purpose of the project is to measure the impact of fiscal policy on the Portuguese GDP and how it may vary according to the state of the financial market. A Threshold VAR model is presented in which the two regimes are found using a financial stress index that divides the economy into a situation of financial stress and financial stability.

The role of deposit insurance and bank’s asset size in the 2008 financial crisis

In this paper we analyze the role of deposit insurance in providing the market with liquidity in times of financial turmoil. To do so, we look at the variation in insured and uninsured deposits between 2005Q3 and 2011Q3, controlling for liquidity, solvency and capital adequacy indicators, and find evidence that deposit insurance does provide some confidence in keeping funds in banks in times of turmoil. Additionally we follow an event study methodology to assess the impact of deposit insurance oriented policies on bank holding companies stock market returns, and find a TBTF effect.

Mota-Engil new prospects of growth: Overcoming the financial crisis

The 2008 global financial crisis caused the collapse of business key sectors, declines in consumer wealth and a fall in economic activity resulting in a global recession. In some European countries, the 2008 crisis contributed to a sovereign-debt crisis which had a strong impact in Southern European countries. The construction sector was particularly affected, with budget cuts disturbing public investment and no financing available for private constructors. This report intends to explain how Mota-Engil, faced this situation of low growth, and which strategies were adopted by the management to overcome the difficult economic conjecture, mainly in its domestic market: Portugal. The report is organized as a case-study. The first part, the case narrative, is subdivided into 6 parts, and the second part is the teaching note. The teaching note is constituted by the four questions and their respective responses.

Donations of non-financial resources: The motivation and consequences of measuring and accounting for it

This thesis focus on the measurement and accounting of contributions received by nonprofit organizations, as they are a significant component of revenues nowadays. A survey was developed and forward to 38 different NPOs, with the goal of understanding their motivations and what advantages and disadvantages they believe would result if they start to measure and account for all kinds of contributions. They presented many advantages from this practice; however, some are not doing it due to the difficulties in valuing contributions with no market value which would require a higher workload, waste of resources and time to be taken from other important activities.