Forecasts of relative performance in tournaments: Evidence from the field

This paper uses a field experiment to investigate the quality of individuals’ forecasts of relative performance in tournaments. We ask players in luck-based (poker) and skill-based (chess) tournaments to make point forecasts of rank. The main finding of the paper is that players’ forecasts in both types of tournaments are biased towards overestimation of relative performance. However, the size of the biases found is not as large as the ones often reported in the psychology literature. We also find support for the “unskilled and unaware hypothesis” in chess: high skilled chess players make better forecasts than low skilled chess players. Finally, we find that chess players’ forecasts of relative performance are not efficient.

An assessment of the integration of the mental health component into the care of women affected by intimate partner violence in Peru

RESUMO: A violência contra as mulheres (VCM) é um problema de saúde pública e uma violação dos direitos humanos. Ele tem uma alta prevalência na América Latina e no Caribe; o Estudo da Violência Contra as Mulheres da Organização Mundial de Saúde (OMS) identificou que as mulheres peruanas sofrem o maior índice de violência. O Perú é signatário da CEDAW e da Convenção de Belém do Pará, com recomendações para resolver este tipo de discriminação e descrever o papel do setor da saúde. A lei peruana define a violência como um problema de saúde mental. Objectivos: As três orientações clínicas do Ministério da Saúde para avaliar a integração da componente de saúde mental no cuidado de mulheres afetadas pela VCM foram revistas. Método: A proteção da saúde mental foi avaliada nas orientações acima mencionadas. A lei peruana relevante para perceber o reconhecimento das consequências de VCM na saúde mental e os cuidados prestados neste contexto foram revistos. Usando esses padrões nacionais e internacionais, foi realizada uma análise de conteúdo dos guias peruanos para a atenção da violência para ver como eles se integram a saúde mental. Resultados: Estas orientações são muito extensas e não definem claramente a responsabilidade dos profissionais de saúde. Não incluem um exame de saúde mental na avaliação da vítima e são vagas na descrição das atividades a serem realizadas pelo prestador dos cuidados de saúde. As orientações recomendam uma triagem universal usando um instrumento com formato antiquado e pesado. Em contrapartida, as orientações da OMS não recomendam qualquer triagem. Conclusão: As várias orientações analisadas não fornecem a informação necessária para o profissional de saúde avaliar o envolvimento da saúde mental e, desnecessariamente, tratam as mulheres sobreviventes de VCM como doentes mentais. Recomenda-se que as orientações recentes da OMS (Responding to intimate partner violence and sexual violence against women: WHO clinical and policy guidelines, 2013) para os cuidados de VCM sejam usadas como um modelo para o desenvolvimento de um único dispositivo técnico que incorpora directrizes com base científica. legislação com base no género, saúde, guias, prevenção e mujeres 6 RESUMO (PORTUGUESE) A violência contra as mulheres (VCM) é um problema de saúde pública e uma violação dos direitos humanos. Ele tem uma alta prevalência na América Latina e no Caribe; o Estudo da Violência Contra as Mulheres da Organização Mundial de Saúde (OMS) identificou que as mulheres peruanas sofrem o maior índice de violência. O Perú é signatário da CEDAW e da Convenção de Belém do Pará, com recomendações para resolver este tipo de discriminação e descrever o papel do setor da saúde. A lei peruana define a violência como um problema de saúde mental. Objectivos: As três orientações clínicas do Ministério da Saúde para avaliar a integração da componente de saúde mental no cuidado de mulheres afetadas pela VCM foram revistas. Método: A proteção da saúde mental foi avaliada nas orientações acima mencionadas. A lei peruana relevante para perceber o reconhecimento das consequências de VCM na saúde mental e os cuidados prestados neste contexto foram revistos. Usando esses padrões nacionais e internacionais, foi realizada uma análise de conteúdo dos guias peruanos para a atenção da violência para ver como eles se integram a saúde mental. Resultados: Estas orientações são muito extensas e não definem claramente a responsabilidade dos profissionais de saúde. Não incluem um exame de saúde mental na avaliação da vítima e são vagas na descrição das atividades a serem realizadas pelo prestador dos cuidados de saúde. As orientações recomendam uma triagem universal usando um instrumento com formato antiquado e pesado. Em contrapartida, as orientações da OMS não recomendam qualquer triagem. Conclusão: As várias orientações analisadas não fornecem a informação necessária para o profissional de saúde avaliar o envolvimento da saúde mental e, desnecessariamente, tratam as mulheres sobreviventes de VCM como doentes mentais. Recomenda-se que as orientações recentes da OMS (Responding to intimate partner violence and sexual violence against women: WHO clinical and policy guidelines, 2013) para os cuidados de VCM sejam usadas como um modelo para o desenvolvimento de um único dispositivo técnico que incorpora directrizes com base científica.-----------------ABSTRACT: Violence against women (VAW) is a public health problem and a human rights violation. It is highly prevalent in Latin America and the Caribbean; the Multi-country Study on Violence against Women by the World Health Organization identified rural Peruvian women as suffering the highest rates of VAW. The country is party to CEDAW and Belen Do Para Conventions, which set forth recommendations to overcome this form of discrimination and describe the role of the health sector. Peruvian law defines violence as a mental health issue. Objective: The Ministry of Health’s three technical guidelines were reviewed to assess the integration of mental health into the care of women affected by violence Method: The protection of the woman’s mental health was ascertained in the conventions mentioned above. The recognition of the mental health consequences of VAW and the inclusion of its evaluation and care were assessed in pertinent Peruvian legislation. Using these international and national parameters, the three guidelines for the attention of violence were subject to content analysis to see whether they conform to the conventions and integrate mental health care. Outcome: These guidelines are too extensive and do not clearly define the responsibility of health workers. They do not include a mental health exam in the evaluation of the victim and are vague in the description of the actions to be carried out by the health care provider. Guidelines prescribe universal screening using an outdated instrument and moreover, WHO Guidelines do not recommend screening. Conclusion: These multiple guidelines do not provide useful guidance for health care providers, particularly for the assessment of mental health sequelae, and unnecessarily stigmatize survivors of violence as mentally ill. It is recommended that the World Health Organization’s document Responding to intimate partner violence and sexual violence against women: WHO clinical and policy guidelines (2013) be used as a blueprint for only one technical instrument that incorporates evidence -based national policy and guidelines.

Indexing and active fund management: International evidence

Author's pre-print

The scramble for the seas : the ballad evidence of Sir Andrew Barton

The presence and importance of the sea as a factor that has helped shape the history of England since at least the Roman invasions of 55-54 BC (less successful, incidentally, than most of Caesar’s other military ventures ...) need no particular urging or demonstration. Nonetheless, a bird’s-eye view would necessarily survey the waves of invasions and settlements that, one after the other, came dashing over the centuries upon England’s shores; not to mention the requested invasion of 1688, Angles and Saxons, Scandinavians, Normans, they all crossed the whale’s path and cast anchor in England’s green and pleasant land. In the course of this retrospective voyage through the oceans of History, one would inevitably stop at the so-called ‘Discoveries’ of the 15th-16th centuries, meet their navigators, sailors and pirates extolled by Richard Hakluyt (1553?-1616), face an anonymous crowd of merchants and witness the huge expansion of trade, largely to the benefit of the ‘discovering’ countries as prescribed by the economic Gospel Adam Smith (1723-90) would later baptize as “mercantilism”.

A model to screen and improve business potential of micro and small enterprises in developing countries: Evidence from the Island of Mozambique

Programmes supporting micro and small enterprises in developing countries have been showing that capital is not enough to allow business success: survival and growth. Literature does not provide comprehensive and practical tool to support business development in this context, but allowed the collection of forty-nine success variables that were studied in a sample of successful and unsuccessful businesses in the Island of Mozambique to discover what were the key factors affecting those businesses’ performance. Empirical data gave the insights for the development of a model to screen and improve business potential of micro and small enterprises in this context.

Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.

Spinoffs and other entrants: Evidence from Portugal

This thesis studies the prevalence and survival of spinoff entrants in Portugal from 1987 to 2008. Information on worker flows is used to identify them at a population level, providing evidence on other operations such as mergers and acquisitions. We show that the number of spinoffs has been increasing at a higher rate than other entrants of comparable size. Studying the determinants of their exit suggests that the most important predictor is whether the spinoff was motivated by the failure of the parent firm. The effect of industry specific knowledge and previous experience of the founders from working together in the parent firm is seemingly negligible, with only weak evidence supporting the latter.

Mental health and the crisis: Evidence from share

Mental health constitutes a significant share of the global burden of disease. It is shaped to a great extent by socioeconomic factors and is vulnerable to external shocks. The recent financial crisis brought about stressors prone to trigger and aggravate mental illnesses. This project presents a micro analysis of the effect of the economic crisis on mental health in eleven European countries, through the estimation of individual health production functions accounting for socioeconomic controls and macroeconomic indicators. We find that mental health has deteriorated since 2007, even though the development of depression episodes is unchanged. Additionally, his variation can be partially attributed to economic recession and budgetary cuts in health spending.

Is low worker mobility evidence for monopsony power?

Major in Competition and Regulation

Do the psychological impacts of war cause poverty?: Evidence from Mozambique

This paper evaluates the extent to which war-related psychological distress causes poverty. The endogeneous nature of mental distress is addressed by using exposure to the civil war in Mozambique as an instrument. It is found that exposure to war has a significant and positive long-lasting impact on mental distress. Furthermore, the causal impact of war-related psychological distress on income and wealth is shown to be significant, negative, and nonnegligible. One standard deviation increase in mental distress decreases income by half a standard deviation. These findings are robust to alternative specifications, including the use of an alternative database on the incidence of PTSD in Mozambique.

O uso da força no Direito Internacional = Use of force in Public International Law

Versão online da Revista Brasileira de Estudos Políticos, Belo Horizonte, nº 107, pp. 149-200, jul./dez.2013

As 'conversas informais' extraprocessuais como meio de prova em processo penal

In the present thesis, we examine the approach to the so-called “informal conversations”, especially between a suspect or defendant and criminal police authorities. Our goal is to understand if criminal police authorities are allowed to testify about the content of these conversations, revealing facts that the suspect or defendant may have shared with them, as well as about evidence that they may have acquired through these statements. Firstly, we briefly present the notion of “informal conversations” and the great variety of situations they may encompass: intra or extra-procedural; prior or subsequent to someone acquires the status of defendant. Secondly, we analyse some of the principles and rules that are involved in this controversial issue: principles concerning the procedural structure, organization and dynamic; principles concerning the production and assessment of evidence in the trial hearing; principles concerning the prosecution and the powers of criminal police authorities; the procedural status of the defendant; the rules concerning the reading of statements in the trial hearing; the rules concerning hearsay testimonies. Thirdly, we go through the great amount of case law on the so-called “informal conversations” and related matters, analysing the most relevant cases and the arguments that sustain them, as well as the legal literature. Our goal is to understand the evolution, throughout the last two decades, of the different opinions regarding the approach to the various situations in which “informal conversations” may occur and in which the admissibility of a testimony by criminal police authorities is questioned. Finally, we defend a different approach for testimonies by criminal police authorities prior and subsequent to someone acquiring the status of defendant. We see the moment when someone acquires the status of defendant as a border area in the admissibility of “informal conversations”, because from then on the statements have to be collected and assessed according to the law, so all the other conversations (or any other evidence) collected informally are irrelevant. As to the specific case of the testimony about the re-enactment of the crime, given the high degree of difficulty in separating the defendant’s contributions that may be considered essential and those that may be considered less useful, but still relevant, we support the qualification of the defendant’s contributions as inseparable from the re-enactment, allowing it to be replicated and assessed in the trial hearing with no restrictions.

A intervenção dos orgãos de polícia criminal em sede de julgamento

Currently, Portugal assumes itself as a democratic rule of substantive law State, sustained by a legal system seeking the right balance between the guarantee of fundamental rights and freedoms constitutional foreseen in Portugal’s Fundamental Law and criminal persecution. The architecture of the penal code lies with, roughly speaking, a accusatory basic structure, “deliberately attached to one of the most remarkable achievements of the civilizational democratic progress, and by obedience to the constitutional commandment”, in balance with the official investigation principle, valid both for the purpose of prosecution and trial. Regarding the principle of non self-incrimination - nemo tenetur se ipsum accusare, briefly defined as the defendant’s right of not being obliged to contribute to the self-incrimination, it should be stressed that there isn’t an explicit consecration in the Portuguese Constitution, being commonly accepted in an implicit constitutional prediction and deriving from other constitutional rights and principles, first and foremost, the meaning and scope of the concept of democratic rule of Law State, embedded in the Fundamental Law, and in the guidelines of the constitutional principles of human person dignity, freedom of action and the presumption of innocence. In any case, about the (in) applicability of the principle of the prohibition of self-incrimination to the Criminal Police Bodies in the trial hearing in Court, and sharing an idea of Guedes Valente, the truth is that the exercise of criminal action must tread a transparent path and non-compliant with methods to obtain evidence that violate the law, the public order or in violation of democratic principles and loyalty (Guedes Valente, 2013, p. 484). Within the framework of the penal process relating to the trial, which is assumed as the true phase of the process, the witness represents a relevant figure for the administration of criminal justice, for the testimonial proof is, in the idea of Othmar Jauernig, the worst proof of evidence, but also being the most frequent (Jauernig, 1998, p. 289). As coadjutant of the Public Prosecutor and, in specific cases, the investigating judge, the Criminal Police Bodies are invested with high responsibility, being "the arms and eyes of Judicial Authorities in pursuing the criminal investigation..." which has as ultimate goal the fulfillment of the Law pursuing the defense of society" (Guedes Valente, 2013, p. 485). It is in this context and as a witness that, throughout operational career, the Criminal Police Bodies are required to be at the trial hearing and clarify the Court with its view about the facts relating to occurrences of criminal context, thus contributing very significantly and, in some cases, decisively for the proper administration of the portuguese criminal justice. With regards to the intervention of Criminal Police Bodies in the trial hearing in Court, it’s important that they pay attention to a set of standards concerning the preparation of the testimony, the very provision of the testimony and, also, to its conclusion. Be emphasized that these guidelines may become crucial for the quality of the police testimony at the trial hearing, thus leading to an improvement of the enforcement of justice system. In this vein, while preparing the testimony, the Criminal Police Bodies must present itself in court with proper clothing, to read before and carefully the case files, to debate the facts being judged with other Criminal Police Bodies and prepare potential questions. Later, while giving his testimony during the trial, the Criminal Police Bodies must, summing up, to take the oath in a convincing manner, to feel comfortable, to start well by convincingly answering the first question, keep an attitude of serenity, to adopt an attitude of collaboration, to avoid the reading of documents, to demonstrate deference and seriousness before the judicial operators, to use simple and objective language, to adopt a fluent speech, to use nonverbal language correctly, to avoid spontaneity responding only to what is asked, to report only the truth, to avoid hesitations and contradictions, to be impartial and to maintain eye contact with the judge. Finally, at the conclusion of the testimony, the Criminal Police Bodies should rise in a smooth manner, avoiding to show relief, resentment or satisfaction, leaving a credible and professional image and, without much formality, requesting the judge permission to leave the courtroom. As final note, it’s important to stress that "The intervention of the Police Criminal Bodies in the trial hearing in Court” encloses itself on a theme of crucial importance not only for members of the Police and Security Forces, who must welcome this subject with the utmost seriousness and professionalism, but also for the proper administration of the criminal justice system in Portugal.

Evidence of market anomalies in the Eurozone: A practical implementation

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Master’s Double Degree in Finance and Financial Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics and Maastricht University

Empirical evidence on the difference between the effective and the statutory tax rates for listed groups in Germany

The difference between the statutory and effective tax rate for listed groups is a complex variable influenced by a variety of factors. This paper aims to analyze whether this difference exists for listed groups in the German market and tests which factors have an impact on it. Thus the sample consists of 130 corporations listed in the three major German stock indices. The findings suggest that the companies that pay less than the statutory rate clearly outweigh the ones that pay more, and that the income earned from associated companies has a significant impact on this difference.