Firms survival and international trade: The impact of exports and imports

Double Degree. A Work Project presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters in Management from Nova School of Business and Economics and Maastricht University.

Beyond the carry trade: Optimal currency portfolios

Author's Pre-print

Should Unilever JM export Cornettos to emergent countries?

Field Lab in Entrepreneurial Innovative Ventures

Starburst accelerator and incubator construction & energy: How to monitor the activities of an incubator and give strategic advice to startups

This work project takes the format of a problem-solving approach suggested by “Impulse Partners”, a French consulting firm. It recommends a way to measure the success of ten startups in the incubators “Starburst” and “Incubator Construction & Energy” and give them strategic guidance. A Balanced Scorecard is elaborated to help incubated startups building up and implementing their strategy. The Scorecard suggests possible initiatives for the startups that are ideally realized with the help of the consulting firm that is steering the incubator. Special attention is drawn to what the startups need to succeed, which typically concerns financing, networking and managing skills.

Contribution to a strategic plan for the implementation of continuous improvement process in an MRO

This Work Project studies the Continuous Improvement and Processes (CIP) department at TAP Maintenance & Engineering. The project has the objective to provide insights to align the activities of the department with the strategy of the organization. For such, two focuses were taken: (i) an internal analysis which highlighted a need for transversal change to ensure the adoption of Continuous Improvement at TAP, and (ii) a process which outlined objectives and projects to be pursued to prioritize CIP’s activities in accordance with the organization’s goals. The outcome includes (a) important recommendations concerning strategic planning and competition evaluation and (b) a process’ output that reflects a balance among factors influencing the priority of projects.

Construction sector: Need for strategic reorientation

The construction sector in Portugal declined sharply over the past 10 years. The current crisis can wiped out the entire industry. Can the industry survive? What lessons can we learn? What can be done to revive the sector? These are questions this study intends to answer. By analyzing the best practices of the industry and of the largest construction companies in Portugal, as well as the difficulties and constrains that they all faced, I found that retrenchment (operational costs and selling assets) are the main measures companies resort to, and that strategic reorientation is essential to turnaround. I found that internationalization is a key driver on strategic reorientation and diversification and concentration are complementary strategies that can enforce and strengthen the main one.

Strategic design of There App’s business model: From product to multi-sided platform

The following work project illustrates the strategic issues There App, a mobile application, faces regarding the opportunity to expand from its current state as a product to a multisided platform. Initially, a market analysis is performed to identify the ideal customer groups to be integrated in the platform. Strategic design issues are then discussed on how to best match its value proposition with the identified market opportunity. Suggestions on how the company should organize its resources and operational processes to best deliver on its value proposition complete the work.

Primera Reservoir Ltd. strategic position analysis

The purpose of this work is to understand the internal and external structure in which the company operates to provide an idea of the strategic actions needed to accomplish their organizational objectives. A strategic software was employed to build up phase one and phase two, phase one involved analysing internal and external factors that influence the company, comprehending their core competences, factors that influence the market and identification of strengths and weaknesses. Phase two consisted on providing an idea of their real competitive position and the suggestion of a development strategy, given the possible limitations in the external factors, the company should carefully analyse some of the opportunities present in the industry overseas to continue to develop their business and increase its profitability. Furthermore, a source of competitive advantage was found in their outbound logistics which could serve a differentiator between their competitors.

Getting the carry trade's jackpot

This Working Project studies five portfolios of currency carry trades formed with the G10 currencies. Performance varies among strategies and the most basic one presents the worst results. I also study the equity and Pure FX risk factors which can explain the portfolios’ returns. Equity factors do not explain these returns while the Pure FX do for some of the strategies. Downside risk measures indicate the importance of using regime indicators to avoid losses. I conclude that although using VAR and threshold regression models with a variety of regime indicators do not allow the perception of different regimes, with a defined exogenous threshold on real exchange rates, an indicator of liquidity and the volatilities of the spot exchange rates it is possible to increase the average returns and reduce drawdowns of the carry trades

Corporate social reponsability strategic corporate social responsability: External and internal outcomes

This study investigates the importance and benefits of having a strategic Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) program by testing the interrelationships between strategic CSR with three external (reputation, corporate image, and customer loyalty) and four internal (organizational commitment, job satisfaction, performance, and organizational deviance) variables. 269 clients and non-clients along with 190 employees and their direct supervisors completed the survey. Strategic CSR has shown to have a positive impact on all the variables studied with the exception of organizational deviance. Practical implications and suggestions for future research are discussed.

Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Drilling deeper: Understanding trade in Angola

The present study analyzes Angola’s trading partners from 2005 to 2015 in order to understand the main drivers of Exports and Imports growth. Departing from a gravity model, foreign GDP growth and real exchange rate fluctuations were interpreted as demand and supply disturbances on Exports. While nominal and real exports both increase with demand expansions, they react differently to supply shocks. Imports are growing at the same rate as Angola’s economy while exchange rate fluctuations capture the wealth effect of Oil price in the economy.

Impactos territoriais de processos de cooperação transfronteiriça : caso de estudo : Elvas e Badajoz

A cooperação transfronteiriça é vista na União Europeia como um modelo de integração territorial e como uma alternativa para o desenvolvimento das regiões de fronteira, devido ao seu afastamento em relação aos grandes centros urbanos. No início da década de 90 foi lançado o programa do INTERREG tendo em vista a maior permeabilidade da fronteira e o desenvolvimento destes territórios, entre os quais o das regiões do Alto Alentejo e da Extremadura. A grande proximidade territorial entre Elvas e Badajoz permitiu desde sempre relações de cooperação mais ou menos intensas e consentidas, mesmo antes da abertura da fronteira, motivadas sobretudo pela diferença de valor entre as duas moedas. Contudo, com a entrada conjunta dos países ibéricos na CEE (1986), essas relações intensificaram-se ao nível do comércio, do emprego, do turismo, do lazer e da procura de serviços. Impactos territoriais como a procura e utilização conjunta de infraestruturas e de espaços públicos pelas populações das duas cidades, a promoção e realização de espetáculos culturais, a prática de cross-border shopping, a procura de uma segunda residência, em ambos os lados da fronteira, e a tendência para uma urbanização contínua no futuro, justificaram a criação da Eurocidade Elvas-Badajoz (2013). Esta iniciativa tem como principais objetivos promover a conceção, gestão e prestação conjunta de serviços, desenvolver projetos de cooperação em áreas de interesse comum, estimular a cooperação entre empresas e atrair investimentos geradores de novos postos de trabalho. No entanto os desafios para ambas as cidades prendem-se com a existência de um quadro jurídico e legal distinto que tem condicionado algumas das ações ou iniciativas e o desenvolvimento territorial conjunto ainda carece de uma proposta estratégica.

The emergence of product certification systems as trade barriers

This paper addresses the growing difficulties automobile manufacturers face within their after sales business: an increasing number of trade obstacles set up by import countries discriminates against the foreign suppliers and impedes the international sales of genuine parts. The purpose of the study is to explore the emergence of trade restrictive product certification systems, which affect spare parts exports of automobile manufacturers. The methodology used includes review of the literature and an empirical study based on qualitative interviews with representatives of major stakeholders of the automotive after sales business. Relevant key drivers, which initiate the introduction of technical regulations in importing countries, are identified and analysed to evaluate their effect on the emerging trade policy. The analysis of the key drivers outlines that several interacting components, such as the global competitiveness of the country, macroeconomic and microeconomic factors, and certain country-specific variables induce trade restrictive product certification systems. The findings allow for an early detection of the emergence of product certification systems and provide a means to early recognise the risks and opportunities for the sales of automotive spare parts in the automakers’ target markets. This allows the manufacturers to react immediately and adapt in time to the upcoming changes.

Portuguese footwear

This case study deals with the reasons why the Portuguese Footwear Cluster evolved from a small industry focused on the Portuguese internal market into a high-tech industry capable of designing and producing some of the best and most expensive shoes in the world. It went from using the low labor costs of an under-developed economy to produce long series of shoes for pre-designated brands in Northern Europe to having the ability to produce some of the highest quality shoes in the world, in small orders, designed and delivered in record timing, while offering a service of excellence. In 1960, when Portugal became a founding member of EFTA, the footwear industry in Portugal was globally irrelevant, producing low quality shoes directed to the puny internal market and its African colonies. The new free trade zone with economies much more developed that itself, led to the transfer of the labor-intensive, low skilled manufacture from the UK and Scandinavian countries to Portugal. Mostly through joint ventures, the industry was able to mechanize itself so it could produce shoes in long series at low prices. It grew based on that model up until the 1990s, when the emergence of the Asian countries meant either a different strategy or extinction. Taking advantage of a clarified leadership of its trade association, it used the European funds made available to it during the 1990s, to modernize its factory floors, so it could become more nimble and flexible, expand its design capabilities and dramatically change its image abroad. The role of the trade association, APICCAPS, was instrumental throughout the process going well beyond what came to be expected of trade associations. It used its privileged position to provide understanding regarding the current situation and competitive landscape, alerting for changes ahead and at the same time providing a strategic vision on how to deal with the challenges. Moreover, it helped companies get the resources they needed by creating a research center in collaboration with a University, by creating a process that allowed companies to learn from each other via the show casing of projects sponsored by the association or by helping industrials traveling to locations where new customers could be found. The case study provides insight on how the trade association leadership, which has no formal authority over its members, was able to guide and motivate an industry through a consistent positive approach. That approach focused on the solutions, on the opportunities and on the success stories of companies in the cluster rather than on what was wrong or needed to be addressed. Based on this case, one could use the leadership role of the trade association to discuss and change leaders’ roles and styles in other sectors or even companies.