Macroeconomic impacts of politics and policy: Applications to financial and real markets

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

The Portuguese Administrative Elite, 1851-1910

The aim of this article is to examine the composition and patterns of recruitment of the ministries’directors-general, as well as to assess the interconnections between bureaucracy and politics, from the beginnings of Regeneração (1851) until the breakdown of Monarchy (1910). The post of director-general was considered one of “political trust”, that might be filled by individuals from outside the civil service, and the selection and de-selection of officeholders depended exclusively on the ministers’ will. Nonetheless, most directors-general were experienced bureaucrats, boasting a steady career as civil servants, and remained in office for long terms, regardless of ministerial discontinuities. In other words, High Administration became relatively immune to party-driven politics. Due to their professional background and lengthy tenure, directors-general were usually highly skilled specialists, combining technical expertise and practical knowledge of the wheels of state bureaucracy. Hence, they were often influential actors in policy-making, playing an active (and sometimes decisive) part behind the scenes, in both designing and implementing government policies. As regards their social profile, directors-general formed a cohesive and homogeneous elite group: being predominantly drawn from urban middle class milieus, highly educated, and appointed to office in their forties.

An assessment of the integration of the mental health component into the care of women affected by intimate partner violence in Peru

RESUMO: A violência contra as mulheres (VCM) é um problema de saúde pública e uma violação dos direitos humanos. Ele tem uma alta prevalência na América Latina e no Caribe; o Estudo da Violência Contra as Mulheres da Organização Mundial de Saúde (OMS) identificou que as mulheres peruanas sofrem o maior índice de violência. O Perú é signatário da CEDAW e da Convenção de Belém do Pará, com recomendações para resolver este tipo de discriminação e descrever o papel do setor da saúde. A lei peruana define a violência como um problema de saúde mental. Objectivos: As três orientações clínicas do Ministério da Saúde para avaliar a integração da componente de saúde mental no cuidado de mulheres afetadas pela VCM foram revistas. Método: A proteção da saúde mental foi avaliada nas orientações acima mencionadas. A lei peruana relevante para perceber o reconhecimento das consequências de VCM na saúde mental e os cuidados prestados neste contexto foram revistos. Usando esses padrões nacionais e internacionais, foi realizada uma análise de conteúdo dos guias peruanos para a atenção da violência para ver como eles se integram a saúde mental. Resultados: Estas orientações são muito extensas e não definem claramente a responsabilidade dos profissionais de saúde. Não incluem um exame de saúde mental na avaliação da vítima e são vagas na descrição das atividades a serem realizadas pelo prestador dos cuidados de saúde. As orientações recomendam uma triagem universal usando um instrumento com formato antiquado e pesado. Em contrapartida, as orientações da OMS não recomendam qualquer triagem. Conclusão: As várias orientações analisadas não fornecem a informação necessária para o profissional de saúde avaliar o envolvimento da saúde mental e, desnecessariamente, tratam as mulheres sobreviventes de VCM como doentes mentais. Recomenda-se que as orientações recentes da OMS (Responding to intimate partner violence and sexual violence against women: WHO clinical and policy guidelines, 2013) para os cuidados de VCM sejam usadas como um modelo para o desenvolvimento de um único dispositivo técnico que incorpora directrizes com base científica. legislação com base no género, saúde, guias, prevenção e mujeres 6 RESUMO (PORTUGUESE) A violência contra as mulheres (VCM) é um problema de saúde pública e uma violação dos direitos humanos. Ele tem uma alta prevalência na América Latina e no Caribe; o Estudo da Violência Contra as Mulheres da Organização Mundial de Saúde (OMS) identificou que as mulheres peruanas sofrem o maior índice de violência. O Perú é signatário da CEDAW e da Convenção de Belém do Pará, com recomendações para resolver este tipo de discriminação e descrever o papel do setor da saúde. A lei peruana define a violência como um problema de saúde mental. Objectivos: As três orientações clínicas do Ministério da Saúde para avaliar a integração da componente de saúde mental no cuidado de mulheres afetadas pela VCM foram revistas. Método: A proteção da saúde mental foi avaliada nas orientações acima mencionadas. A lei peruana relevante para perceber o reconhecimento das consequências de VCM na saúde mental e os cuidados prestados neste contexto foram revistos. Usando esses padrões nacionais e internacionais, foi realizada uma análise de conteúdo dos guias peruanos para a atenção da violência para ver como eles se integram a saúde mental. Resultados: Estas orientações são muito extensas e não definem claramente a responsabilidade dos profissionais de saúde. Não incluem um exame de saúde mental na avaliação da vítima e são vagas na descrição das atividades a serem realizadas pelo prestador dos cuidados de saúde. As orientações recomendam uma triagem universal usando um instrumento com formato antiquado e pesado. Em contrapartida, as orientações da OMS não recomendam qualquer triagem. Conclusão: As várias orientações analisadas não fornecem a informação necessária para o profissional de saúde avaliar o envolvimento da saúde mental e, desnecessariamente, tratam as mulheres sobreviventes de VCM como doentes mentais. Recomenda-se que as orientações recentes da OMS (Responding to intimate partner violence and sexual violence against women: WHO clinical and policy guidelines, 2013) para os cuidados de VCM sejam usadas como um modelo para o desenvolvimento de um único dispositivo técnico que incorpora directrizes com base científica.-----------------ABSTRACT: Violence against women (VAW) is a public health problem and a human rights violation. It is highly prevalent in Latin America and the Caribbean; the Multi-country Study on Violence against Women by the World Health Organization identified rural Peruvian women as suffering the highest rates of VAW. The country is party to CEDAW and Belen Do Para Conventions, which set forth recommendations to overcome this form of discrimination and describe the role of the health sector. Peruvian law defines violence as a mental health issue. Objective: The Ministry of Health’s three technical guidelines were reviewed to assess the integration of mental health into the care of women affected by violence Method: The protection of the woman’s mental health was ascertained in the conventions mentioned above. The recognition of the mental health consequences of VAW and the inclusion of its evaluation and care were assessed in pertinent Peruvian legislation. Using these international and national parameters, the three guidelines for the attention of violence were subject to content analysis to see whether they conform to the conventions and integrate mental health care. Outcome: These guidelines are too extensive and do not clearly define the responsibility of health workers. They do not include a mental health exam in the evaluation of the victim and are vague in the description of the actions to be carried out by the health care provider. Guidelines prescribe universal screening using an outdated instrument and moreover, WHO Guidelines do not recommend screening. Conclusion: These multiple guidelines do not provide useful guidance for health care providers, particularly for the assessment of mental health sequelae, and unnecessarily stigmatize survivors of violence as mentally ill. It is recommended that the World Health Organization’s document Responding to intimate partner violence and sexual violence against women: WHO clinical and policy guidelines (2013) be used as a blueprint for only one technical instrument that incorporates evidence -based national policy and guidelines.

Humor and the framing of the public sphere and public opinion in Portugal (1797-1834)

In his Answer to the Question: What is Enlightenment (1784), Kant puts forward his belief that the vocation to think freely, which humankind is endowed with, is bound to make sure that “the public use of reason” will at last act “even on the fundamental principles of government and the state [will] find it agreeable to treat man – who is now more than a machine – in accord with his dignity”. The critical reference to La Mettrie (1747), by opposing the machine to human dignity, will echo, in the dawn of the 20th century, in Bergson’s attempt to explain humor. Besides being exclusive to humans, humor is also a social phenomenon. Freud (1905) assures that pleasure originated by humor is collective, it results from a “social process”: jokes need an audience, a “third party”, in order to work and have fun. Assuming humor as a social and cultural phenomenon, this paper intends to sustain that it played a role in the framing of the public sphere and of public opinion in Portugal during the transition from Absolute Monarchy to Liberalism. The search for the conditions which made possible the critical exercise of sociability is at the root of the creation of the public sphere in the sense developed by Habermas (1962), whose perspective, however, has been questioned by those who point 2 out the alleged idealism of the concept – as opposed, for example, to Bakhtin (1970), whose work stresses diversity and pluralism. This notwithstanding, the concept of public sphere is crucial to the building of public opinion, which is, in turn, indissoluble from the principle of publicity, as demonstrated by Bobbio (1985). This paper discusses the historical evolution of the concept of public opinion from Ancient Greece doxa, through Machiavelli’s “humors” (1532), the origin of the expression in Montaigne (1580) and the contributions of Hobbes (1651), Locke (1690), Swift (1729), Rousseau (1762) or Hume (1777), up to the reflection of Lippman (1922) and Bourdieu’s critique (1984). It maintains that humor, as it appears in Portuguese printed periodicals from 1797 (when Almocreve de Petas was published for the first time) to the end of the civil war (1834) – especially in those edited by José Daniel Rodrigues da Costa but also in O Piolho Viajante, by António Manuel Policarpo da Silva, or in the ones written by José Agostinho de Macedo, as well as in a political “elite minded” periodical such as Correio Braziliense –, contributed to the framing of the public sphere and of public opinion in Portugal.

Resilience of logistic service providers facing a port strike: a case study

The purpose of this thesis is to study the impact of a port strike on companies that perform as logistic service providers in a supply chain (SC), here denominated 3PL (third-party logistic providers). These companies are highly dependent on ports to perform their activity, since they provide international services. Consequently, a disruption in a port can seriously impair their business. A stevedores’ strike is one of the possible disruptions that can affect ports. This study aims to analyze the negative effects caused by this disruption, and what strategies 3PLs may implement in order to keep their performance levels stable and have a quick recovery time. Within this objective, the first step will be to establish a theoretical context about the maritime port’s sector and 3PLs in a SC context, to then expand the concept of a resilient SC, and finally to develop a theoretical framework in order to better contextualize the case study. Subsequently, the impact of a port strike will be quantified by using a case study comprising three companies, covering the areas of land and sea distribution and port operations. Information from primary sources was assembled in two phases: first via e-mail and, in a second phase, through a personal interview. The information from secondary sources was obtained through television news, internet and conferences, enabling its cross-analysis. Finally, by analyzing the collected data, it will be possible to draw conclusions about the measures carried out by each company to minimize the negative effects of the strike, thus contributing to a more resilient SC. As a conclusion, a stevedores’ strike will create a snow-ball of negative effects in the SC, degrading all relevant KPIs (key performance indicators) of the 3PLs under study. No mitigation and contingency strategies available proved really effective to reduce the negative effects of a port strike disruption.

Res Publica: Citizenship and Political Representation in Portugal, 1820-1926

The term res publica (literally “thing of the people”) was coined by the Romans to translate the Greek word politeia, which, as we know, referred to a political community organised in accordance with certain principles, amongst which the notion of the “good life” (as against exclusively private interests) was paramount. This ideal also came to be known as political virtue. To achieve it, it was necessary to combine the best of each “constitutional” type and avoid their worst aspects (tyranny, oligarchy and ochlocracy). Hence, the term acquired from the Greeks a sense of being a “mixed” and “balanced” system. Anyone that was entitled to citizenship could participate in the governance of the “public thing”. This implied the institutionalization of open debate and confrontation between interested parties as a way of achieving the consensus necessary to ensure that man the political animal, who fought with words and reason, prevailed over his “natural” counterpart. These premises lie at the heart of the project which is now being presented under the title of Res Publica: Citizenship and Political Representation in Portugal, 1820-1926. The fact that it is integrated into the centenary commemorations of the establishment of the Republic in Portugal is significant, as it was the idea of revolution – with its promise of rupture and change – that inspired it. However, it has also sought to explore events that could be considered the precursor of democratization in the history of Portugal, namely the vintista, setembrista and patuleia revolutions. It is true that the republican regime was opposed to the monarchic. However, although the thesis that monarchy would inevitably lead to tyranny had held sway for centuries, it had also been long believed that the monarchic system could be as “politically virtuous” as a republic (in the strict sense of the word) provided that power was not concentrated in the hands of a single individual. Moreover, various historical experiments had shown that republics could also degenerate into Caesarism and different kinds of despotism. Thus, when absolutism began to be overturned in continental Europe in the name of the natural rights of man and the new social pact theories, initiating the difficult process of (written) constitutionalization, the monarchic principle began to be qualified as a “monarchy hedged by republican institutions”, a situation in which not even the king was exempt from isonomy. This context justifies the time frame chosen here, as it captures the various changes and continuities that run through it. Having rejected the imperative mandate and the reinstatement of the model of corporative representation (which did not mean that, in new contexts, this might not be revived, or that the second chamber established by the Constitutional Charter of 1826 might not be given another lease of life), a new power base was convened: national sovereignty, a precept that would be shared by the monarchic constitutions of 1822 and 1838, and by the republican one of 1911. This followed the French example (manifested in the monarchic constitution of 1791 and in the Spanish constitution of 1812), as not even republicans entertained a tradition of republicanism based upon popular sovereignty. This enables us to better understand the rejection of direct democracy and universal suffrage, and also the long incapacitation (concerning voting and standing for office) of the vast body of “passive” citizens, justified by “enlightened”, property- and gender-based criteria. Although the republicans had promised in the propaganda phase to alter this situation, they ultimately failed to do so. Indeed, throughout the whole period under analysis, the realisation of the potential of national sovereignty was mediated above all by the individual citizen through his choice of representatives. However, this representation was indirect and took place at national level, in the hope that action would be motivated not by particular local interests but by the common good, as dictated by reason. This was considered the only way for the law to be virtuous, a requirement that was also manifested in the separation and balance of powers. As sovereignty was postulated as single and indivisible, so would be the nation that gave it soul and the State that embodied it. Although these characteristics were common to foreign paradigms of reference, in Portugal, the constitutionalization process also sought to nationalise the idea of Empire. Indeed, this had been the overriding purpose of the 1822 Constitution, and it persisted, even after the loss of Brazil, until decolonization. Then, the dream of a single nation stretching from the Minho to Timor finally came to an end.

Determinants of reelection in Portuguese municipal elections

This Work Project investigates the determinants of reelection using data on the 278 Portuguese mainland municipalities for the period 1976-2009. We implement a logit fixed effect model to control for the municipalities’ unobserved characteristics that remain constant over time. Political variables, such as the vote share of the incumbent’s party in previous election, the number of mayor’s consecutive mandates and abstention rate, are found to be relevant in explaining incumbent’s reelection. Moreover, as to the mayor’s individual characteristics, age and education contribute to explain reelection prospects. We also provide weak evidence that a higher degree of fiscal autonomy increases political turnover and that the good economic prospects of the municipality positively affect reelection. Finally, the residents’ level of education and the size of the municipal population have an explanatory power on mayor’s reelection. We perform several robustness checks to confirm these results.

O dever de obediência a ordens ilegais na Guarda Nacional Republicana

The Republican National Guard (GNR) is a military structure and hierarchical force where discipline and obedience is a serious matter, but at the same time, the scope of its activity relates to the protection of the rights, freedoms and guarantees of citizens and the primacy of public interest. While security force, GNR ensures democratic law, guarantee the internal security and the rights of citizens. The controversial issue that lies at the heart of this work its related with the balance between the hierarchy and the written law. The hierarchy, also established by law, with given powers, exist to apply the law. However, the rule of law has exceptions. Which institute to prioritize, hierarchy or the law. And within the law, its rules or the exceptions. Who decides? The GNR's officers have to obey the laws and regulations and comply with the accuracy and timeliness determinations, orders and instructions issued by a superior, given in terms of service, as long as does not involve the practice of crime. The GNR´s officer with command tasks exercises power of authority inherent in these functions, and the corresponding disciplinary authority, being responsible for acts by himself or by his order are practiced. Identify situations of exception to law enforcement, the situations in which one must obey illegal orders, is difficult and thankless, it requires conferred authority and raises the weight of responsibility for decisions and orders issued.

O abuso do direito no Direito do Consumo

In Consumer Law there is a special concern to protect the consumer, who is the weaker party in the legal relationship. With this thesis we intend to show that the professional sometimes needs protection against abusive conducts from consumers. The thesis describes the different categories of abuse of rights and explains some types of consumer contracts. After examining some of the consumer’s rights, we list some situations where the consumer acts frequently with abuse of rights, by analyzing judicial decisions. We conclude that it is not possible which conducts may involve an abuse of right in an abstract manner. Only by analyzing every case and its characteristics individually can one decide where there is an abuse of right.

Assessing the community needs of mental health residential care service users in Republic of Moldova

RESUMO: Background: Problemas de saúde mental são um grande problema clínico e social na República da Moldávia, representando uma quota significante de deficiência, sendo classificada no top cinco das dez linhas na hierarquia das condições. A taxa de incidência tem sido crescente na República da Moldávia, atingindo cerca de 15.000 por ano (14,655 em 2011), ou seja, 411,4 por 100 mil habitantes, e uma taxa de prevalência de 97.525 pessoas em 2011, ou seja, 2,737.9 por 100 mil habitantes. Sistema de atendimento psiquiátrico fornece serviços de saúde mental escassos a nível da comunidade, visando principalmente terapia hospitalar, centralizada, através de uma rede de três hospitais psiquiátricos, com 1.860 camas e 4 sanatórios psico- neurológicos com 1890 camas, assim alimentando-se a estigmatização do paciente. Objetivos: O objetivo deste estudo foi a avaliação das necessidades individuais dos beneficiários e do seu nível de autonomia dentro de cuidados residenciais, para o planeamento de reformas de saúde mental e desinstitucionalização na República da Moldávia. Este estudo foi encomendado pelo Ministério do Trabalho, Proteção Social e da Família e pelo Ministério da Saúde, com o apoio da Organização Mundial da Saúde, para determinar o cumprimento eficaz do artigo 19 da Convenção da ONU. O estudo tem os seguintes objetivos: Avaliar o nível de autonomia dos residentes nos hospitais psiquiátricos e sanatórios psico-neurológico, usando uma amostra representativa de 10 por ce nto do número total de pacientes/residentes e comparação cruzada; Para avaliar quatro sanatórios psico-neurológicos para adultos e três hospitais psiquiátricos; Para desenvolver recomendações para o planeamento da desinstitucionalização das pessoas com problemas de saúde mental e colocação na comunidade com base nos resultados do estudo. Metodologia e resultados: O estudo fez uso de duas ferramentas globais: questionário para a avaliação individual dos residentes do estabelecimento de saúde mental, e questionário de avaliação institucional. Todos os entrevistados foram divididos em quatro categorias conforme com o grau de dependência e preparação de viver de forma independente na comunidade. Apenas 1,2% dos entrevistados de PNHB eram totalmente dependentes de terceiros ou serviços especializados, tornando-se a categoria 4, que necessitam de cuidados e apoio contínuo. No PH esta categoria de pessoas é ausente. Conclusões: A condição dos entrevistados foi pior em PNBH que em PH. No entanto, ainda, aqueles que estão prontos para ser desinstitucionalizados correspondem com a maior parte dos entrevistados. Todos os hospitais tinham o consentimento do utente para admissão e tratamento, enquanto não houve consentimento qualquer em PNBH. É bastante óbvio que tanto os hospitais como também a sistema de assistência residencial não atingem a sua finalidade, o que significa que a maioria dos utentes pode ser desinstitucionalizados, sem qualquer terapia de suporte.------------------ABSTRACT: Background: Mental health problems are a major clinical and social issue in the Republic of Moldova,accounting for a significant share of disability and ranking in top five of the ten lines in the hierarchy of conditions. The incidence rate has been growing in the Republic of Moldova to reach approximately 15 thousand a year (14,655 in 2011), i.e. 411.4 per 100 thousand population, and a prevalence rate of 97,525 thousand people in 2011, i.e. 2,737.9 per 100 thousand population. Psychiatric care system provides for scanty mental health services at community level, aiming mainly at centralized hospital-based therapy through a network of three psychiatric hospitals tallying up 1,860 beds and 4 psycho-neurological boarding houses with 1,890 beds, thus fuelling up patient stigmatization. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to assess the individual needs of beneficiaries and their level of autonomy within residential care for the planning of mental health system reforms and deinstitutionalization in the Republic of Moldova. This study was commissioned by the Ministry of Labour, Social Protection and Family and by the Ministry of Health, with the World Health Organization support, to provide for effective enforcement of article 19 of the UN CRPD. The study pursued the following goals: To evaluate the level of autonomy of the psychiatric hospital and psycho-neurological boarding house residents by using a representative sample of 10 per cent of the total number of patients / residents and cross-comparison; To evaluate four psycho-neurological boarding houses for adults and three psychiatric hospitals; To develop recommendations for planning the deinstitutionalization of people with mental health problems and community placement based on the study findings.Methodology and results: The study made use of two global tools: questionnaire for individual assessment of mental health facility residents, and institutional assessment questionnaire. All interviewees were divided into four categories by one’s degree of dependence and readiness to live independently in the community. Only 1.2% of respondents from PNHB were fully dependent on a third party or specialized services, making up category 4, requiring continuous care and support. In PH this category of people is absent.Conclusions: The condition of respondents was worse in PNBH than in PH. However, yet, those ready to be deinstitutionalized accounted for most of respondents there. All hospitals had the resident’s consent to admission and treatment, whereas there was no consent in PNBH whatsoever. It is quite obvious that both the hospitals and residential care system do not achieve their intended purpose, meaning that the majority of residents may be deinstitutionalized without any support therapy.

“The impact of online ratings on video game sales”

Online third-party reviews have been grown over the last decade and they now play an important role as a tool for helping customers evaluate products and services that in many cases offer more than tangible features. This study intends to quantify the impact online ratings have over video game sales by conducting a linear regression analysis on 300 titles for the previous console generation (PlayStation® 3 and Xbox® 360) using a data from the video game industry to understand the existing influence on this particular market. The findings showed that these variables have a weak linear relationship thus suggesting that quality of a title explains little the commercial success of a video game and instead this should cover a wider range of factors. Afterwards, we compare results to previous ones and discuss the managerial implications for upcoming gaming generations.

The new economy: Essays in network economics and two-sided markets

Following the Introduction, which surveys existing literature on the technology advances and regulation in telecommunications and on two-sided markets, we address specific issues on the industries of the New Economy, featured by the existence of network effects. We seek to explore how each one of these industries work, identify potential market failures and find new solutions at the economic regulation level promoting social welfare. In Chapter 1 we analyze a regulatory issue on access prices and investments in the telecommunications market. The existing literature on access prices and investment has pointed out that networks underinvest under a regime of mandatory access provision with a fixed access price per end-user. We propose a new access pricing rule, the indexation approach, i.e., the access price, per end-user, that network i pays to network j is function of the investment levels set by both networks. We show that the indexation can enhance economic efficiency beyond what is achieved with a fixed access price. In particular, access price indexation can simultaneously induce lower retail prices and higher investment and social welfare as compared to a fixed access pricing or a regulatory holidays regime. Furthermore, we provide sufficient conditions under which the indexation can implement the socially optimal investment or the Ramsey solution, which would be impossible to obtain under fixed access pricing. Our results contradict the notion that investment efficiency must be sacrificed for gains in pricing efficiency. In Chapter 2 we investigate the effect of regulations that limit advertising airtime on advertising quality and on social welfare. We show, first, that advertising time regulation may reduce the average quality of advertising broadcast on TV networks. Second, an advertising cap may reduce media platforms and firms' profits, while the net effect on viewers (subscribers) welfare is ambiguous because the ad quality reduction resulting from a regulatory cap o¤sets the subscribers direct gain from watching fewer ads. We find that if subscribers are sufficiently sensitive to ad quality, i.e., the ad quality reduction outweighs the direct effect of the cap, a cap may reduce social welfare. The welfare results suggest that a regulatory authority that is trying to increase welfare via regulation of the volume of advertising on TV might necessitate to also regulate advertising quality or, if regulating quality proves impractical, take the effect of advertising quality into consideration. 3 In Chapter 3 we investigate the rules that govern Electronic Payment Networks (EPNs). In EPNs the No-Surcharge Rule (NSR) requires that merchants charge at most the same amount for a payment card transaction as for cash. In this chapter, we analyze a three- party model (consumers, merchants, and a proprietary EPN) with endogenous transaction volumes and heterogenous merchants' transactional benefits of accepting cards to assess the welfare impacts of the NSR. We show that, if merchants are local monopolists and the network externalities from merchants to cardholders are sufficiently strong, with the exception of the EPN, all agents will be worse o¤ with the NSR, and therefore the NSR is socially undesirable. The positive role of the NSR in terms of improvement of retail price efficiency for cardholders is also highlighted.

Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Períodos de Fidelização

This dissertation aims to study the loyalty clauses present in most of the long lasting service contracts. We introduce its main features and the consequences that arise from breaching of contract. We analyze the presence of loyalty periods in the Portuguese legislation. In this sense, we discuss Decree-Law 446/85, Law 24/96, Decree-Law 57/2008 and Decree-Law 56/2010. The loyalty period is the minimum period of time for which the contract should be maintained. In most cases, when this obligation is not fulfilled a penalty clause is set, intending to push the weaker party to comply with the contract or sanction it when the party fails to do so. We conclude that the contractual relationship where there is a loyalty period is usually an unbalanced relationship because it only protects the interest of one party. The penalty clause should not be admitted between parties with unequal bargaining powers. The contractual imbalance is not limited to consumer contracts.

Estudo e intervenção no livro de Consultas e Decretos da Rainha D. Maria I – Aplicação e métodos de remoção de reforços e adesivos

O presente trabalho tem como principal propósito selecionar novas metodologias de intervenção a aplicar na obra “Livro de Consultas e Decretos da Rainha D. Maria I” pertencente à Chancelaria Régia do Arquivo Municipal de Lisboa. Para tal, desenvolveu-se a contextualização histórica do livro e do Fundo e realizou-se o levantamento das problemáticas como as tintas ferrogálicas, manchas causadas por macro e microorganismos no papel, e reforços com papéis transparentes resultantes de restauros antigos nos manuscritos do livro. Realizou-se ainda a caracterização material dos substratos presentes no livro recorrendo a diferentes métodos de exame e análise. A escolha dos métodos para a remoção dos reforços teve como principal preocupação a substituição de métodos aquosos tradicionais, que não são controláveis, por novas metodologias de intervenção mais controladas. Estes métodos consistem na aplicação de humidade controlada através de técnicas como: humidificador ultrasónico com temperatura, Gore-tex, géis rígidos, cataplasma enzimático, e um ensaio experimental com dióxido de carbono supercrítico (CO2). Os resultados mais relevantes incidem na identificação do tipo de adesivo utilizado nos restauros antigos, e na operabilidade dos géis rígidos e cataplasma que se revelaram favoráveis no tratamento deste tipo de manuscritos. Tendo-se seleccionado os métodos com melhor operabilidade, realizaram-se intervenções de restauro em apenas alguns fólios, a partir do método mais adequado para cada tipo de substrato, tendo em conta o estado de conservação. Por fim desenvolveram-se propostas de intervenção para os restantes manuscritos e encadernação, assim como a execução de um acondicionamento adequado, proposta de conservação preventiva e uma ficha de restrição de acesso à obra.