Multidimensional scaling analysis of the dynamics of a country economy

This paper analyzes the Portuguese short-run business cycles over the last 150 years and presents the multidimensional scaling (MDS) for visualizing the results. The analytical and numerical assessment of this long-run perspective reveals periods with close connections between the macroeconomic variables related to government accounts equilibrium, balance of payments equilibrium, and economic growth. The MDS method is adopted for a quantitative statistical analysis. In this way, similarity clusters of several historical periods emerge in the MDS maps, namely, in identifying similarities and dissimilarities that identify periods of prosperity and crises, growth, and stagnation. Such features are major aspects of collective national achievement, to which can be associated the impact of international problems such as the World Wars, the Great Depression, or the current global financial crisis, as well as national events in the context of broad political blueprints for the Portuguese society in the rising globalization process.

Aplicação de métodos estocásticos na gestão de custos de construção de condutas de saneamento

O trabalho apresentado centra-se na determinação dos custos de construção de condutas de pequenos e médios diâmetros em Polietileno de Alta Densidade (PEAD) para saneamento básico, tendo como base a metodologia descrita no livro Custos de Construção e Exploração – Volume 9 da série Gestão de Sistemas de Saneamento Básico, de Lencastre et al. (1994). Esta metodologia descrita no livro já referenciado, nos procedimentos de gestão de obra, e para tal foram estimados custos unitários de diversos conjuntos de trabalhos. Conforme Lencastre et al (1994), “esses conjuntos são referentes a movimentos de terras, tubagens, acessórios e respetivos órgãos de manobra, pavimentações e estaleiro, estando englobado na parte do estaleiro trabalhos acessórios correspondentes à obra.” Os custos foram obtidos analisando vários orçamentos de obras de saneamento, resultantes de concursos públicos de empreitadas recentemente realizados. Com vista a tornar a utilização desta metodologia numa ferramenta eficaz, foram organizadas folhas de cálculo que possibilitam obter estimativas realistas dos custos de execução de determinada obra em fases anteriores ao desenvolvimento do projeto, designadamente numa fase de preparação do plano diretor de um sistema ou numa fase de elaboração de estudos de viabilidade económico-financeiros, isto é, mesmo antes de existir qualquer pré-dimensionamento dos elementos do sistema. Outra técnica implementada para avaliar os dados de entrada foi a “Análise Robusta de Dados”, Pestana (1992). Esta metodologia permitiu analisar os dados mais detalhadamente antes de se formularem hipóteses para desenvolverem a análise de risco. A ideia principal é o exame bastante flexível dos dados, frequentemente antes mesmo de os comparar a um modelo probabilístico. Assim, e para um largo conjunto de dados, esta técnica possibilitou analisar a disparidade dos valores encontrados para os diversos trabalhos referenciados anteriormente. Com os dados recolhidos, e após o seu tratamento, passou-se à aplicação de uma metodologia de Análise de Risco, através da Simulação de Monte Carlo. Esta análise de risco é feita com recurso a uma ferramenta informática da Palisade, o @Risk, disponível no Departamento de Engenharia Civil. Esta técnica de análise quantitativa de risco permite traduzir a incerteza dos dados de entrada, representada através de distribuições probabilísticas que o software disponibiliza. Assim, para por em prática esta metodologia, recorreu-se às folhas de cálculo que foram realizadas seguindo a abordagem proposta em Lencastre et al (1994). A elaboração e a análise dessas estimativas poderão conduzir à tomada de decisões sobre a viabilidade da ou das obras a realizar, nomeadamente no que diz respeito aos aspetos económicos, permitindo uma análise de decisão fundamentada quanto à realização dos investimentos.

Analysis of six fungicides and one acaricide in still and fortified wines using solid-phase microextraction-gas chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry

A multiresidue gas chromatographic method for the determination of six fungicides (captan, chlorthalonil, folpet, iprodione, procymidone and vinclozolin) and one acaricide (dicofol) in still and fortified wines was developed. Solid-phase microextraction (SPME) was chosen for the extraction of the compounds from the studied matrices and tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) detection was used. The extraction consists in a solvent free and automated procedure and the detection is highly sensitive and selective. Good linearity was obtained with correlation coefficients of regression (R2) > 0.99 for all the compounds. Satisfactory results of repeatability and intermediate precision were obtained for most of the analytes (RSD < 20%). Recoveries from spiked wine ranged from 80.1% to 112.0%. Limits of quantification (LOQs) were considerably below the proposedmaximumresidue limits (MRLs) for these compounds in grapes and below the suggested limits for wine (MRLs/10), with the exception of captan.

Development and validation of a novel method for the analysis of chlorinated pesticides in soils using microwave-assisted extraction–headspace solid phase microextraction and gas chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry

A new procedure for determining eleven organochlorine pesticides in soils using microwave-assisted extraction (MAE) and headspace solid phase microextraction (HS-SPME) is described. The studied pesticides consisted of mirex, α- and γ-chlordane, p,p’-DDT, heptachlor, heptachlor epoxide isomer A, γ-hexachlorocyclohexane, dieldrin, endrin, aldrine and hexachlorobenzene. The HS-SPME was optimized for the most important parameters such as extraction time, sample volume and temperature. The present analytical procedure requires a reduced volume of organic solvents and avoids the need for extract clean-up steps. For optimized conditions the limits of detection for the method ranged from 0.02 to 3.6 ng/g, intermediate precision ranged from 14 to 36% (as CV%), and the recovery from 8 up to 51%. The proposed methodology can be used in the rapid screening of soil for the presence of the selected pesticides, and was applied to landfill soil samples.

Dynamic analysis of earthquake phenomena by means of pseudo phase plane

This paper analyses earthquake data in the perspective of dynamical systems and its Pseudo Phase Plane representation. The seismic data is collected from the Bulletin of the International Seismological Centre. The geological events are characterised by their magnitude and geographical location and described by means of time series of sequences of Dirac impulses. Fifty groups of data series are considered, according to the Flinn-Engdahl seismic regions of Earth. For each region, Pearson’s correlation coefficient is used to find the optimal time delay for reconstructing the Pseudo Phase Plane. The Pseudo Phase Plane plots are then analysed and characterised.

Analysis of the respiratory dynamics during normal breathing by means of pseudo phase plots and pressure-volume loops

This paper reports on the analysis of tidal breathing patterns measured during noninvasive forced oscillation lung function tests in six individual groups. The three adult groups were healthy, with prediagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and with prediagnosed kyphoscoliosis, respectively. The three children groups were healthy, with prediagnosed asthma, and with prediagnosed cystic fibrosis, respectively. The analysis is applied to the pressure–volume curves and the pseudophaseplane loop by means of the box-counting method, which gives a measure of the area within each loop. The objective was to verify if there exists a link between the area of the loops, power-law patterns, and alterations in the respiratory structure with disease. We obtained statistically significant variations between the data sets corresponding to the six groups of patients, showing also the existence of power-law patterns. Our findings support the idea that the respiratory system changes with disease in terms of airway geometry and tissue parameters, leading, in turn, to variations in the fractal dimension of the respiratory tree and its dynamics.

Experiments on new polymer based mortars filled with FRP waste recyclates - a quantitative analysis

Glass fibre-reinforced plastics (GFRP) have been considered inherently difficult to recycle due to both: cross-linked nature of thermoset resins, which cannot be remolded, and complex composition of the composite itself. Presently, most of the GFRP waste is landfilled leading to negative environmental impacts and supplementary added costs. With an increasing awareness of environmental matters and the subsequent desire to save resources, recycling would convert an expensive waste disposal into a profitable reusable material. In this study, efforts were made in order to recycle grinded GFRP waste, proceeding from pultrusion production scrap, into new and sustainable composite materials. For this purpose, GFRP waste recyclates, were incorporated into polyester based mortars as fine aggregate and filler replacements at different load contents and particle size distributions. Potential recycling solution was assessed by mechanical behaviour of resultant GFRP waste modified polymer mortars. Results revealed that GFRP waste filled polymer mortars present improved flexural and compressive behaviour over unmodified polyester based mortars, thus indicating the feasibility of the waste reuse in polymer mortars and concrete. © 2011, Advanced Engineering Solutions.

Analysis of Forest Fires by means of Pseudo Phase Plane and Multidimensional Scaling Methods

Forest fires dynamics is often characterized by the absence of a characteristic length-scale, long range correlations in space and time, and long memory, which are features also associated with fractional order systems. In this paper a public domain forest fires catalogue, containing information of events for Portugal, covering the period from 1980 up to 2012, is tackled. The events are modelled as time series of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the burnt area. The time series are viewed as the system output and are interpreted as a manifestation of the system dynamics. In the first phase we use the pseudo phase plane (PPP) technique to describe forest fires dynamics. In the second phase we use multidimensional scaling (MDS) visualization tools. The PPP allows the representation of forest fires dynamics in two-dimensional space, by taking time series representative of the phenomena. The MDS approach generates maps where objects that are perceived to be similar to each other are placed on the map forming clusters. The results are analysed in order to extract relationships among the data and to better understand forest fires behaviour.

Comparison of Disposable Pipette Extraction and Dispersive Solid-Phase Extraction in the QuEChERS Method for Analysis of Pesticides in Strawberries

In this study, we sought to assess the applicability of GC–MS/MS for the identification and quantification of 36 pesticides in strawberry from integrated pest management (IPM) and organic farming (OF). Citrate versions of QuEChERS (quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged and safe) using dispersive solid-phase extraction (d-SPE) and disposable pipette extraction (DPX) for cleanup were compared for pesticide extraction. For cleanup, a combination of MgSO4, primary secondary amine and C18 was used for both the versions. Significant differences were observed in recovery results between the two sample preparation versions (DPX and d-SPE). Overall, 86% of the pesticides achieved recoveries (three spiking levels 10, 50 and 200 µg/kg) in the range of 70–120%, with <13% RSD. The matrix effects were also evaluated in both the versions and in strawberries from different crop types. Although not evidencing significant differences between the two methodologies were observed, however, the DPX cleanup proved to be a faster technique and easy to execute. The results indicate that QuEChERS with d-SPE and DPX and GC–MS/MS analysis achieved reliable quantification and identification of 36 pesticide residues in strawberries from OF and IPM.