Fuzzy Monte Carlo mathematical model for load curtailment minimization in transmission power systems

This paper presents a methodology which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo simulation. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on optimal power flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. In order to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology to a practical case, the paper will include a case study for the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 BUS.

Mathematical model for HIV dynamics in HIV-specific helper cells

In this paper we study a delay mathematical model for the dynamics of HIV in HIV-specific CD4 + T helper cells. We modify the model presented by Roy and Wodarz in 2012, where the HIV dynamics is studied, considering a single CD4 + T cell population. Non-specific helper cells are included as alternative target cell population, to account for macrophages and dendritic cells. In this paper, we include two types of delay: (1) a latent period between the time target cells are contacted by the virus particles and the time the virions enter the cells and; (2) virus production period for new virions to be produced within and released from the infected cells. We compute the reproduction number of the model, R0, and the local stability of the disease free equilibrium and of the endemic equilibrium. We find that for values of R0<1, the model approaches asymptotically the disease free equilibrium. For values of R0>1, the model approximates asymptotically the endemic equilibrium. We observe numerically the phenomenon of backward bifurcation for values of R0⪅1. This statement will be proved in future work. We also vary the values of the latent period and the production period of infected cells and free virus. We conclude that increasing these values translates in a decrease of the reproduction number. Thus, a good strategy to control the HIV virus should focus on drugs to prolong the latent period and/or slow down the virus production. These results suggest that the model is mathematically and epidemiologically well-posed.

Optimization model for medium term natural gas commitment

In this paper we study the optimal natural gas commitment for a known demand scenario. This study implies the best location of GSUs to supply all demands and the optimal allocation from sources to gas loads, through an appropriate transportation mode, in order to minimize total system costs. Our emphasis is on the formulation and use of a suitable optimization model, reflecting real-world operations and the constraints of natural gas systems. The mathematical model is based on a Lagrangean heuristic, using the Lagrangean relaxation, an efficient approach to solve the problem. Computational results are presented for Iberian and American natural gas systems, geographically organized in 65 and 88 load nodes, respectively. The location model results, supported by the computational application GasView, show the optimal location and allocation solution, system total costs and suggest a suitable gas transportation mode, presented in both numerical and graphic supports.

Fractional model for malaria transmission under control strategies

We study a fractional model for malaria transmission under control strategies.Weconsider the integer order model proposed by Chiyaka et al. (2008) in [15] and modify it to become a fractional order model. We study numerically the model for variation of the values of the fractional derivative and of the parameter that models personal protection, b. From observation of the figures we conclude that as b is increased from 0 to 1 there is a corresponding decrease in the number of infectious humans and infectious mosquitoes, for all values of α. This means that this result is invariant for variation of fractional derivative, in the values tested. These results are in agreement with those obtained in Chiyaka et al.(2008) [15] for α = 1.0 and suggest that our fractional model is epidemiologically wellposed.

A coinfection model for HIV and HCV

We study a mathematical model for the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatites C virus (HCV) coinfection. The model predicts four distinct equilibria: the disease free, the HIV endemic, the HCV endemic, and the full endemic equilibria. The local and global stability of the disease free equilibrium was calculated for the full model and the HIV and HCV submodels. We present numerical simulations of the full model where the distinct equilibria can be observed. We show simulations of the qualitative changes of the dynamical behavior of the full model for variation of relevant parameters. From the results of the model, we infer possible measures that could be implemented in order to reduce the number of infected individuals.

Modelling real solar cell using PSCAD/MATLAB

This paper presents the development of a solar photovoltaic (PV) model based on PSCAD/EMTDC - Power System Computer Aided Design – including a mathematical model study. An additional algorithm has been implemented in MATLAB software in order to calculate several parameters required by the PSCAD developed model. All the simulation study has been performed in PSCAD/MATLAB software simulation tool. A real data base concerning irradiance, cell temperature and PV power generation was used in order to support the evaluation of the implemented PV model.

Self-similarity principle: the reduced description of randomness

A new general fitting method based on the Self-Similar (SS) organization of random sequences is presented. The proposed analytical function helps to fit the response of many complex systems when their recorded data form a self-similar curve. The verified SS principle opens new possibilities for the fitting of economical, meteorological and other complex data when the mathematical model is absent but the reduced description in terms of some universal set of the fitting parameters is necessary. This fitting function is verified on economical (price of a commodity versus time) and weather (the Earth’s mean temperature surface data versus time) and for these nontrivial cases it becomes possible to receive a very good fit of initial data set. The general conditions of application of this fitting method describing the response of many complex systems and the forecast possibilities are discussed.

Application of fractional controllers for quad rotor

This paper studies the application of fractional algorithms in the control of a quad-rotor rotorcraft. The development of a flight simulator provide the evaluation of the controller algorithm. Several basic maneuvers are investigated, namely the elevation and the position control.

A New Approach in the Design of Air Stripping Columns for the Treatment of Groundwater Contaminated With Volatile Organic Compounds

Volatile organic compounds are a common source of groundwater contamination that can be easily removed by air stripping in columns with random packing and using a counter-current flow between the phases. This work proposes a new methodology for column design for any type of packing and contaminant which avoids the necessity of an arbitrary chosen diameter. It also avoids the employment of the usual graphical Eckert correlations for pressure drop. The hydraulic features are previously chosen as a project criterion. The design procedure was translated into a convenient algorithm in C++ language. A column was built in order to test the design, the theoretical steady-state and dynamic behaviour. The experiments were conducted using a solution of chloroform in distilled water. The results allowed for a correction in the theoretical global mass transfer coefficient previously estimated by the Onda correlations, which depend on several parameters that are not easy to control in experiments. For best describe the column behaviour in stationary and dynamic conditions, an original mathematical model was developed. It consists in a system of two partial non linear differential equations (distributed parameters). Nevertheless, when flows are steady, the system became linear, although there is not an evident solution in analytical terms. In steady state the resulting ODE can be solved by analytical methods, and in dynamic state the discretization of the PDE by finite differences allows for the overcoming of this difficulty. To estimate the contaminant concentrations in both phases in the column, a numerical algorithm was used. The high number of resulting algebraic equations and the impossibility of generating a recursive procedure did not allow the construction of a generalized programme. But an iterative procedure developed in an electronic worksheet allowed for the simulation. The solution is stable only for similar discretizations values. If different values for time/space discretization parameters are used, the solution easily becomes unstable. The system dynamic behaviour was simulated for the common liquid phase perturbations: step, impulse, rectangular pulse and sinusoidal. The final results do not configure strange or non-predictable behaviours.

Calibração de Roscados

Na presente dissertação é proposto o desenvolvimento de um novo sistema de calibração de roscados de exteriores através de visão computacional. A calibração de roscados de exterior consiste na obtenção do diâmetro efectivo, do diâmetro exterior e do passo, e no cálculo da incerteza expandida correspondente. Actualmente, a calibração é efectuada com o auxílio de máquinas universais (SIP), na qual o diâmetro efectivo é obtido através de um modelo matemático, pois não se consegue obtê-lo directamente. O sistema de calibração por visão computacional tem como objectivo obter-se o diâmetro efectivo directamente, assim como as restantes características. A vantagem deste novo sistema será para roscados com dimensões inferiores a 2 mm, que não se conseguem medir utilizando a SIP. A desvantagem é referente a diâmetros superiores a 2 mm, devido à resolução obtida com a câmara utilizada. Este sistema foi validado por comparação com a calibração utilizando como equipamento calibrador a SIP. Ao longo da dissertação irão ser explicados todos os passos dados para a calibração de roscados de exterior.

Rat muscle opacity decrease due to the osmosis of a simple mixture

It is known that the fibrous structure of muscle causes light scattering. This phenomenon occurs due to the refractive index discontinuities located between muscle fibers and interstitial fluid. To study the possibility of reducing light scattering inside muscle, we consider its spectral transmittance evolution during an immersion treatment with an optical clearing solution containing ethanol, glycerol, and distilled water. Our methodology consists of registering spectral transmittance of muscle samples while immersed in that solution. With the spectral data collected, we represent the transmittance evolution for some wavelengths during the treatment applied. Additionally, we study the variations that the treatment has caused on the samples regarding tissue refractive index and mass. By analyzing microscopic photographs of tissue cross section, we can also verify changes in the internal arrangement of muscle fibers caused by the immersion treatment. Due to a mathematical model that we develop, we can explain the variations observed in the studied parameters and estimate the amount of optical clearing agent that has diffused into the tissue samples during the immersion treatment. At the end of the study, we observe and explain the improvement in tissue spectral transmittance, which is approximately 65% after 20 min.

Standarização no IKEA Industry de Paço de Ferreira

Standarização de um posto de trabalho não é mais que definir o melhor método de trabalho que vai ser seguido por todos os operadores que trabalham no mesmo. Uma vez definido esse método, é importante para uma empresa ter noção da produtividade que podem alcançar, dado que pode ser retirado a partir deste método, e é no seguimento disto que surge o estudo dos métodos e tempos, mais concretamente o estudo dos tempos por cronometragem. A aplicação deste estudo foi despoletada pela necessidade do IKEA Industry de Paços de Ferreira, em dar o próximo passo na standarização dos seus postos de trabalho, área a área, e da necessidade de terem uma pessoa em cada área que analisa-se o trabalho que estava a ser feito e calcula-se o tempo de cada rotina. Neste documento, é realizada uma interligação entre os conceitos teóricos que o método exige, como todo o conjunto de fórmulas, restrições, análises e ponderações, com o contexto laboral onde o mesmo foi aplicado e a estratégia desenvolvida pelo IKEA na realização do estudo. O estudo dos métodos e tempos por cronometragem, de todos os métodos existentes, pode ser considerado o mais completo e complexo, uma vez que é mais que observar, registar e retirar uma média ponderada das observações. Este método baseia-se num modelo matemático, que interliga uma série de conceitos e que tem sempre o operador em consideração, seja na avaliação e análise das tarefas que requerem mais esforço dos mesmos, físico ou psicológico, seja em termos de tempos de pausas pessoais que a lei obriga a que as empresas deem. Este detalhe, neste método, é de grande importância, uma vez que a standarização é sempre vista pelos operadores como uma punição. As desvantagens deste método estão no grau de conhecimento e capacidade de observação exigidas ao analista para o executar. Melhor dizendo, um analista que vá executar este trabalho necessita observar muito bem a rotina de trabalho e conhecer onde começa, acaba e tudo o que a ela não pertence, antes de começar a registar seja que tempos forem. Para além disso, é exigido ao analista que perceba o ritmo de trabalho dos operadores através da observação dos mesmos, de modo a que ninguém seja prejudicado. E por fim, é necessária uma grande disponibilidade da parte do analista para retirar o máximo de observações possíveis. Com o intuito de facilitar esta análise, o IKEA Industry criou um ficheiro que compila toda a informação relacionada com o método, e uma explicação de todos os parâmetros que o analista necessita ter em atenção. Esta folha de trabalho foi validada à luz do método, como é possível verificar no decorrer do documento. Um detalhe importante a referir, é que por muito fidedigno que seja este método, tal como qualquer método de standarização, a mínima alteração da rotina de trabalho invalida de imediato o tempo total da rotina, tornando necessário realizar o estudo novamente. Uma vantagem do documento criado pelo IKEA, está na rápida adaptação a estas alterações, uma vez que, caso seja acrescentado ou removido um elemento à rotina, basta alterar o documento, observar e cronometrar os operadores a executar esse novo elemento, e quase automaticamente é definido um novo tempo total padronizado na rotina. Este documento foi criado para fins académicos e de conclusão de um grau académico, mas o estudo quando aplicado na empresa deu origem a contratações, o que só por si mostra as vantagens e impacto que o mesmo pode ter em contexto laboral. Em termos de produtividade, uma vez que a sua aplicação não foi executada a tempo de ser estudada neste documento, não foi possível avaliar a mesma.