Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Abordagem ao risco de crédito no âmbito do acordo de Basileia III em Portugal

Dissertação para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças Orientador: Mestre Adalmiro Álvaro Malheiro de Castro Andrade Pereira

Linking entrepreneural orientation to export performance: the role of intangible resources and dynamic capabilities

Understanding the determinants of international performance, and in particular, export performance is key for the success of international companies. Research in this area focuses mainly on how resources and capabilities allow companies to gain competitive advantage and superior performance in external markets. Building on the Resource-Based View (RBV) and the Dynamic Capabilities Approach (DCA), this study aims at analysing the effect of intangible resources and capabilities on export performance. Specifically, this study focuses on the proposition that entrepreneurial orientation potentiates the attraction of intangible resources, namely relational and informational resources. Moreover, we propose that these resources impact export performance both directly and indirectly through dynamic capabilities.

Space-time monitoring of prescribed burnt soils performance – an effective tool for forest management

Among the most important measures to prevent wild forest fires is the use of prescribed and controlled burning actions in order to reduce the availability of fuel mass. However, the impact of these activities on soil physical and chemical properties varies according to the type of both soil and vegetation and is not fully understood. Therefore, soil monitoring campaigns are often used to measure these impacts. In this paper we have successfully used three statistical data treatments - the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test followed by the ANOVA and the Kruskall-Wallis tests – to investigate the variability among the soil pH, soil moisture, soil organic matter and soil iron variables for different monitoring times and sampling procedures.

A gestão do risco em instituições bancárias: uma análise com recurso a medidas de avaliação da performance ajustadas ao risco

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentado ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Auditoria sob orientação do Mestre Carlos Mota

O processo de Internacionalização na ótica da gestão estratégica. Análise de performance Grupo EDP

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentado ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação de Doutora Cláudia Pereira

Performance Analysis of IEEE 802.15.6 Contention-based MAC Protocol

IEEE International Conference on Communications (IEEE ICC 2015). 8 to 12, Jun, 2015, IEEE ICC 2015 - Communications QoS, Reliability and Modeling, London, United Kingdom.

Influence of entrepreneurial orientation in export performance

This study aims at investigating the influence that entrepreneurial orientation has on export performance of Portuguese footwear small and mediumenterprises (SMEs). Therefore, a quantitative methodological approach was used, conducting a descriptive, exploratory and transversal empirical study, having applied a questionnaire to a sample of Portuguese companies exporting footwear. The research results suggest that entrepreneurial orientation enhances export performance in the analysed SMEs, particularly innovation and proactiveness, through the amount of funds invested, human resources dedicated to this activity, number of new products or services introduced in the market and frequent change in product lines or services and materialization of a long-term perspective, which is accompanied by innovative activities or new businesses. Therefore, the findings sustain the necessity to invest in entrepreneurial orientation as a strategic determinant, which contributes to the growth of small firms in foreignmarkets. Finally, the main limitation of this study is related to the sample size, since it was difficult to find companies willing to collaborate with this kind of research.

An organizational culture approach to performance in information technology micro-firms

This study aims to analyze and compare micro-firms’ organizational culture related to organizational performance. A case study methodology was used based on four firms, competitors among themselves in the Information Technology business, focusing on the years between 2008-2013. Findings pointed out many similarities to larger firms, but some specificities of micro-firms were found and propositions were defined: clan culture predominance is related to best performing micro-firms; the configuration of several culture types seemed to be the most suitable for obtaining good organizational results, provided that they do not focus only on hierarchy and market types of culture; the market culture predominance perception by employees is associated with low job satisfaction; and, after a certain time in business, micro-firms, as do larger companies, seek to standardize and control processes. Recognizing that organizational culture is considered important to firms’ results, this study sheds some light on that important factor for micro-firms.

An automatic voice pleasantness classification system based on prosodic and acoustic patterns of voice preference

In the last few years the number of systems and devices that use voice based interaction has grown significantly. For a continued use of these systems the interface must be reliable and pleasant in order to provide an optimal user experience. However there are currently very few studies that try to evaluate how good is a voice when the application is a speech based interface. In this paper we present a new automatic voice pleasantness classification system based on prosodic and acoustic patterns of voice preference. Our study is based on a multi-language database composed by female voices. In the objective performance evaluation the system achieved a 7.3% error rate.

Projeto de internacionalização de uma microempresa do setor de venda de componentes de elevadores

Trabalho de Projeto de Mestrado apresentado ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Empreendedorismo e Internacionalização sob orientação da Doutora Celsa Maria Carvalho Machado