Electricity Markets Simulation: MASCEM Contributions to the Challenging Reality

Electricity Markets are not only a new reality but an evolving one as the involved players and rules change at a relatively high rate. Multi-agent simulation combined with Artificial Intelligence techniques may result in sophisticated tools very helpful under this context. Some simulation tools have already been developed, some of them very interesting. However, at the present state it is important to go a step forward in Electricity Markets simulators as this is crucial for facing changes in Power Systems. This paper explains the context and needs of electricity market simulation, describing the most important characteristics of available simulators. We present our work concerning MASCEM simulator, presenting its features as well as the improvements being made to accomplish the change and challenging reality of Electricity Markets.

Optimal location of gas supply units in natural gas system network

Natural gas industry has been confronted with big challenges: great growth in demand, investments on new GSUs – gas supply units, and efficient technical system management. The right number of GSUs, their best location on networks and the optimal allocation to loads is a decision problem that can be formulated as a combinatorial programming problem, with the objective of minimizing system expenses. Our emphasis is on the formulation, interpretation and development of a solution algorithm that will analyze the trade-off between infrastructure investment expenditure and operating system costs. The location model was applied to a 12 node natural gas network, and its effectiveness was tested in five different operating scenarios.

Metalearning in ALBidS: A Strategic Bidding System for electricity markets

Metalearning is a subfield of machine learning with special pro-pensity for dynamic and complex environments, from which it is difficult to extract predictable knowledge. The field of study of this work is the electricity market, which due to the restructuring that recently took place, became an especially complex and unpredictable environment, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. This paper presents the development of a metalearner, applied to the decision support of electricity markets’ negotia-tion entities. The proposed metalearner takes advantage on several learning algorithms implemented in ALBidS, an adaptive learning system that pro-vides decision support to electricity markets’ participating players. Using the outputs of each different strategy as inputs, the metalearner creates its own output, considering each strategy with a different weight, depending on its individual quality of performance. The results of the proposed meth-od are studied and analyzed using MASCEM - a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. This simulator provides the chance to test the metalearner in scenarios based on real electricity market´s data.

Adaptive learning in multiagent systems: a forecasting methodology based on error analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simu-lator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM pro-vides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behaviour. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses an auxiliary forecasting tool, e.g. an Artificial Neural Net-work, to predict the electricity market prices, and analyses its forecasting error patterns. Through the recognition of such patterns occurrence, the method predicts the expected error for the next forecast, and uses it to adapt the actual forecast. The goal is to approximate the forecast to the real value, reducing the forecasting error.

Bid definition method for electricity markets based on an adaptive multiagent system

Electricity markets are complex environments with very particular characteristics. MASCEM is a market simulator developed to allow deep studies of the interactions between the players that take part in the electricity market negotiations. This paper presents a new proposal for the definition of MASCEM players’ strategies to negotiate in the market. The proposed methodology is multiagent based, using reinforcement learning algorithms to provide players with the capabilities to perceive the changes in the environment, while adapting their bids formulation according to their needs, using a set of different techniques that are at their disposal. Each agent has the knowledge about a different method for defining a strategy for playing in the market, the main agent chooses the best among all those, and provides it to the market player that requests, to be used in the market. This paper also presents a methodology to manage the efficiency/effectiveness balance of this method, to guarantee that the degradation of the simulator processing times takes the correct measure.

Using an ambient intelligent architecture for developing an intelligent tutoring system for training operators of power system control centres

This paper describes an architecture conceived to integrate Power Sys-tems tools in a Power System Control Centre, based on an Ambient Intelligent (AmI) paradigm. This architecture is an instantiation of the generic architecture proposed in [1] for developing systems that interact with AmI environments. This architecture has been proposed as a consequence of a methodology for the inclu-sion of Artificial Intelligence in AmI environments (ISyRAmI - Intelligent Sys-tems Research for Ambient Intelligence). The architecture presented in the paper will be able to integrate two applications in the control room of a power system transmission network. The first is SPARSE expert system, used to get diagnosis of incidents and to support power restoration. The second application is an Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS) incorporating two training tools. The first tutoring tool is used to train operators to get the diagnosis of incidents. The second one is another tutoring tool used to train operators to perform restoration procedures.

Orientation system for people with cognitive disabilities

In health care there has been a growing interest and investment in new tools to have a constant monitoring of patients. The increasing of average life ex-pectation and, consequently, the costs in health care due to elderly population are the motivation for this investment. However, healthmonitoring is not only important to elderly people, it can be also applied to people with cognitive disabilities. In this article we present some systems, which try to support these persons on doing their day-to-day activities and how it can improve their life quality. Also, we present an idea to a project that tries to help the persons with cognitive disabilities by providing assistance in geo-guidance and keep their caregivers aware of their location.

Shopping center tracking and recommendation systems

Shopping centers present a rich and heterogeneous environment, where IT systems can be implemented in order to support the needs of its actors. However, due to the environment complexity, several feasibility issues emerge when designing both the logical and physical architecture of such systems. Additionally, the system must be able to cope with the individual needs of each actor, and provide services that are easily adopted by them, taking into account several sociological and economical aspects. In this sense, we present an overview of current support systems for shopping center environments. From this overview, a high-level model of the domain (involving actors and services) is described along with challenges and possible features in the context of current Semantic Web, mobile device and sensor technologies.

Recommendation and planning through mobile devices in tourism context

In this paper we present a mobile recommendation and planning system, named PSiS Mobile. It is designed to provide effective support during a tourist visit through context-aware information and recommendations about points of interest, exploiting tourist preferences and context. Designing a tool like this brings several challenges that must be addressed. We discuss how these challenges have been overcame, present the overall system architecture, since this mobile application extends the PSiS project website, and the mobile application architecture.

Lightweight user modeling – a case study

In the context of previous publications, we propose a new lightweight UM process, intended to work as a tourism recommender system in a commercial environment. The new process tackles issues like cold start, gray sheep and over specialization through a rich user model and the application of a gradual forgetting function to the collected user action history. Also, significant performance improvements were achieved regarding the previously proposed UM process.

Adaptation model for PCMAT – Mathematics collaborative learning platform

The aim of this paper is to present an adaptation model for an Adaptive Educational Hypermedia System, PCMAT. The adaptation of the application is based on progressive self-assessment (exercises, tasks, and so on) and applies the constructivist learning theory and the learning styles theory. Our objective is the creation of a better, more adequate adaptation model that takes into account the complexities of different users.

Qualidade de vida do doente com insuficiência cardíaca do Centro Hospitalar Tâmega e Sousa

A Insuficiência Cardíaca (IC), como uma doença crónica, tem vindo a ser alvo de análise devido ao seu impacto, não só a nível económico, mas também a nível da qualidade de vida (QV). Vários estudos demonstram que os doentes com IC apresentam um comprometimento da QV, em várias dimensões. OBJETIVO: Descrever a QV dos doentes com IC do Centro Hospitalar Tâmega e Sousa (CHTS). METODOLOGIA: O estudo é quantitativo, transversal, prospetivo e descritivo. Foi aplicado, entre janeiro a junho de 2012, o Euro Quality of Life Instrument-5D (EQ-5D) para avaliar o estado de saúde (ES) e o Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) para avaliar a QV de 326 doentes com IC, dos quais 226 seguidos na Consulta Externa (77,9% masculinos, idade média 67,5 ±11,6 anos, desvio padrão) e 100 na Clínica de IC (CIC) (73,0% masculinos, idade média 59,0 anos, desvio padrão ±12,7). Foi usada a estatística descritiva, teste t, qui quadrado e a análise da variância. RESULTADOS: Os doentes do género feminino, do grupo etário 75-100 anos, solteiros, divorciados, separados ou viúvos, que não sabem ler nem escrever, sem apoio dos amigos e sem condições económicas mínimas para o tratamento da IC apresentaram pior ES e QV. Os doentes submetidos à terapia de ressincronização cardíaca e às cirurgias valvular e de revascularização tiveram melhor QV. Os doentes com IC de etiologia isquémica e em classe III-IV da New York Heart Association apresentaram pior ES. Nestas classes e com fração de ejeção ≤35% os doentes tiveram pior QV. Os doentes da CIC evidenciaram melhor ES e QV. CONCLUSÕES: A QV dos doentes com IC do CHTS é influenciada pelos fatores pessoais, clínicos e pelo local de intervenção. É fundamental mensurar a QV, na prática clínica, para evidenciar a perceção do ES dos doentes e o impacto da IC na QV.

Penalty fuzzy function for derivative-free optimization

Penalty and Barrier methods are normally used to solve Nonlinear Optimization Problems constrained problems. The problems appear in areas such as engineering and are often characterised by the fact that involved functions (objective and constraints) are non-smooth and/or their derivatives are not know. This means that optimization methods based on derivatives cannot net used. A Java based API was implemented, including only derivative-free optimizationmethods, to solve both constrained and unconstrained problems, which includes Penalty and Barriers methods. In this work a new penalty function, based on Fuzzy Logic, is presented. This function imposes a progressive penalization to solutions that violate the constraints. This means that the function imposes a low penalization when the violation of the constraints is low and a heavy penalisation when the violation is high. The value of the penalization is not known in beforehand, it is the outcome of a fuzzy inference engine. Numerical results comparing the proposed function with two of the classic penalty/barrier functions are presented. Regarding the presented results one can conclude that the prosed penalty function besides being very robust also exhibits a very good performance.

Indoor location using fingerprinting and fuzzy logic

Indoor location systems cannot rely on technologies such as GPS (Global Positioning System) to determine the position of a mobile terminal, because its signals are blocked by obstacles such as walls, ceilings, roofs, etc. In such environments. The use of alternative techniques, such as the use of wireless networks, should be considered. The location estimation is made by measuring and analysing one of the parameters of the wireless signal, usually the received power. One of the techniques used to estimate the locations using wireless networks is fingerprinting. This technique comprises two phases: in the first phase data is collected from the scenario and stored in a database; the second phase consists in determining the location of the mobile node by comparing the data collected from the wireless transceiver with the data previously stored in the database. In this paper an approach for localisation using fingerprinting based on Fuzzy Logic and pattern searching is presented. The performance of the proposed approach is compared with the performance of classic methods, and it presents an improvement between 10.24% and 49.43%, depending on the mobile node and the Fuzzy Logic parameters.ł

Realization of fractional-order controllers: analysis, synthesis and application to the velocity control of a servo system

The synthesis and application of fractional-order controllers is now an active research field. This article investigates the use of fractional-order PID controllers in the velocity control of an experimental modular servo system. The systern consists of a digital servomechanism and open-architecture software environment for real-time control experiments using MATLAB/Simulink. Different tuning methods will be employed, such as heuristics based on the well-known Ziegler Nichols rules, techniques based on Bode’s ideal transfer function and optimization tuning methods. Experimental responses obtained from the application of the several fractional-order controllers are presented and analyzed. The effectiveness and superior performance of the proposed algorithms are also compared with classical integer-order PID controllers.