Uncertainty assessment approach for composite structures based on global sensitivity indices

The problem of uncertainty propagation in composite laminate structures is studied. An approach based on the optimal design of composite structures to achieve a target reliability level is proposed. Using the Uniform Design Method (UDM), a set of design points is generated over a design domain centred at mean values of random variables, aimed at studying the space variability. The most critical Tsai number, the structural reliability index and the sensitivities are obtained for each UDM design point, using the maximum load obtained from optimal design search. Using the UDM design points as input/output patterns, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is developed based on supervised evolutionary learning. Finally, using the developed ANN a Monte Carlo simulation procedure is implemented and the variability of the structural response based on global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is studied. The GSA is based on the first order Sobol indices and relative sensitivities. An appropriate GSA algorithm aiming to obtain Sobol indices is proposed. The most important sources of uncertainty are identified.

Analysis of temperature time-series: embedding dynamics into the MDS method

Global warming and the associated climate changes are being the subject of intensive research due to their major impact on social, economic and health aspects of the human life. Surface temperature time-series characterise Earth as a slow dynamics spatiotemporal system, evidencing long memory behaviour, typical of fractional order systems. Such phenomena are difficult to model and analyse, demanding for alternative approaches. This paper studies the complex correlations between global temperature time-series using the Multidimensional scaling (MDS) approach. MDS provides a graphical representation of the pattern of climatic similarities between regions around the globe. The similarities are quantified through two mathematical indices that correlate the monthly average temperatures observed in meteorological stations, over a given period of time. Furthermore, time dynamics is analysed by performing the MDS analysis over slices sampling the time series. MDS generates maps describing the stations’ locus in the perspective that, if they are perceived to be similar to each other, then they are placed on the map forming clusters. We show that MDS provides an intuitive and useful visual representation of the complex relationships that are present among temperature time-series, which are not perceived on traditional geographic maps. Moreover, MDS avoids sensitivity to the irregular distribution density of the meteorological stations.

From local to global importance measures of uncertainty propagation in composite structures

The influence of uncertainties of input parameters on output response of composite structures is investigated in this paper. In particular, the effects of deviations in mechanical properties, ply angles, ply thickness and on applied loads are studied. The uncertainty propagation and the importance measure of input parameters are analysed using three different approaches: a first-order local method, a Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) supported by a variance-based method and an extension of local variance to estimate the global variance over the domain of inputs. Sample results are shown for a shell composite laminated structure built with different composite systems including multi-materials. The importance measures of input parameters on structural response based on numerical results are established and discussed as a function of the anisotropy of composite materials. Needs for global variance methods are discussed by comparing the results obtained from different proposed methodologies. The objective of this paper is to contribute for the use of GSA techniques together with low expensive local importance measures.

Estruturas de suporte de terras executadas com pneus

O aproveitamento de pneus em fim de vida revela ser uma alternativa eficaz e promissora na indústria da construção civil, na utilização deste resíduo em muros de suporte. O presente trabalho tem como principal objetivo a apresentação de uma técnica de aproveitamento de pneus em fim de vida na execução de muros de gravidade, combinando solo e pneus. Neste sentido, tomou-se como referência um estudo realizado no Brasil por Sieira, Sayão, Medeiros e Gerscovich, para avaliar a eficiência e o custo deste tipo de estruturas, comparando-o com um muro de suporte tradicional de betão simples. Inicialmente, avaliou-se a segurança do muro de solo-pneus, de acordo com a metodologia proposta no Eurocódigo 7 (NP EN 1997-1, 2010), considerando a geometria e as características dos materiais apresentados no estudo referido e usando o programa de cálculo automático Slide, da Rocscience, para a verificação da estabilidade global. Reproduziu-se a análise numérica realizada no âmbito do caso de estudo brasileiro de referência, recorrendo também a uma formulação por elementos finitos com o programa de cálculo automático Phase2, da Rocscience. Por último, utilizando uma vez mais o programa Slide, definiu-se a geometria de um muro de betão simples cuja geometria garantisse o mesmo valor do fator de segurança à estabilidade global, obtido com o muro de solo-pneus e compararam-se os custos respetivos. O presente trabalho confirmou a eficiência e o baixo custo desta solução construtiva, sendo necessários, no entanto, estudos mais detalhados que reforcem estas conclusões.

Análise de estabilidade e fundações de equipamentos de sinalização vertical rodoviária

O presente projeto foi realizado no âmbito da unidade curricular Dissertação/Estágio/Projeto, e desenvolve um estudo sobre as estruturas porticadas de sinalização vertical em Autoestradas, ao nível da estrutura metálica e das fundações, com o objetivo de analisar três casos diferentes com características distintas. Dois dos casos em estudo são modelos comuns que se encontram facilmente nas autoestradas. O terceiro tem uma configuração diferente, mais gravoso que o habitual. Com estes três casos obtém-se um estudo completo e abrangente deste tipo de estrutura porticada. Ao longo do projeto é seguida a norma EC3 (Eurocódigo 3 – Projeto de estruturas de aço). Dimensionaram-se as estruturas utilizando secções tubulares, mas é também realizado o dimensionamento de uma solução estrutural alternativa recorrendo a perfis laminados I ou H. As estruturas foram modeladas com recurso ao software de cálculo Autodesk Robot Structural Analysis Professional, obtendo-se os esforços e deformações nos vários pontos da estrutura, que permitem realizar o dimensionamento manual das secções dos perfis estruturais, chumbadouros, chapas de fundação e fundações propriamente ditas. Na parte final do projeto apresenta-se uma apreciação global do mesmo, conclusões gerais sobre os resultados obtidos e possíveis desenvolvimentos futuros.

A coinfection model for HIV and HCV

We study a mathematical model for the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatites C virus (HCV) coinfection. The model predicts four distinct equilibria: the disease free, the HIV endemic, the HCV endemic, and the full endemic equilibria. The local and global stability of the disease free equilibrium was calculated for the full model and the HIV and HCV submodels. We present numerical simulations of the full model where the distinct equilibria can be observed. We show simulations of the qualitative changes of the dynamical behavior of the full model for variation of relevant parameters. From the results of the model, we infer possible measures that could be implemented in order to reduce the number of infected individuals.

An Extension of Estimation of Domain of Attraction for Fractional Order Linear System Subject to Saturation Control

This paper employs the Lyapunov direct method for the stability analysis of fractional order linear systems subject to input saturation. A new stability condition based on saturation function is adopted for estimating the domain of attraction via ellipsoid approach. To further improve this estimation, the auxiliary feedback is also supported by the concept of stability region. The advantages of the proposed method are twofold: (1) it is straightforward to handle the problem both in analysis and design because of using Lyapunov method, (2) the estimation leads to less conservative results. A numerical example illustrates the feasibility of the proposed method.