Power systems reliability calculation based on fuzzy data mining

This paper presents a methodology supported on the data base knowledge discovery process (KDD), in order to find out the failure probability of electrical equipments’, which belong to a real electrical high voltage network. Data Mining (DM) techniques are used to discover a set of outcome failure probability and, therefore, to extract knowledge concerning to the unavailability of the electrical equipments such us power transformers and high-voltages power lines. The framework includes several steps, following the analysis of the real data base, the pre-processing data, the application of DM algorithms, and finally, the interpretation of the discovered knowledge. To validate the proposed methodology, a case study which includes real databases is used. This data have a heavy uncertainty due to climate conditions for this reason it was used fuzzy logic to determine the set of the electrical components failure probabilities in order to reestablish the service. The results reflect an interesting potential of this approach and encourage further research on the topic.

Peculiarities of the professional education and qualification appraisal of assistants of pharmacists in Lithuania

Following the alterations and additions to the pharmaceutical law of Lithuanian Republic the pharmaceutical activity in Lithuanian pharmacies is carried out by pharmacy specialists – pharmacists and pharmacy assistants (pharmacy technicians). The ability of pharmacy specialists to adapt, to improve and to develop their competencies is one of the success preconditions for Lithuanian health care pharmacy sector. Work aim: to investigate the changes among the specialists employed in pharmacies and pharmacy sector as well as to highlight the necessity to develop the qualification of pharmacy assistants (pharmacy technicians) according to the modern pharmaceutical legal basis in Lithuania. In 2008–2011 the research in Lithuanian pharmacy sector was performed which identified the changes in the numbers of pharmacies and their staff: the number of pharmacies decreased, while the number of pharmacists increased and the number of the assistants of pharmacists (pharmacy technicians) decreased. The decrease in the number of the assistants of pharmacists (pharmacy technicians) and the danger of their extinction in the future has been identified. The qualification appraisal for pharmacy assistants (pharmacy technicians) is implemented through the leveling studies at the Pharmacy technique department at the Health care faculty of Kauno Kolegija University of applied sciences and pharmacy study programme at the faculty of Pharmacy of Medical Academy at Lithuanian University of Health Sciences. 75 % of respondents use their own money to pay for the qualification appraisal, and 25 % of respondents get financial support for the qualification appraisal activities from the pharmacy managers.

Rapid determination of tartaric acid in wines

A flow-spectrophotometric method is proposed for the routine determination of tartaric acid in wines. The reaction between tartaric acid and vanadate in acetic media is carried out in flowing conditions and the subsequent colored complex is monitored at 475 nm. The stability of the complex and the corresponding formation constant are presented. The effect of wavelength and pH was evaluated by batch experiments. The selected conditions were transposed to a flowinjection analytical system. Optimization of several flow parameters such as reactor lengths, flow-rate and injection volume was carried out. Using optimized conditions, a linear behavior was observed up to 1000 µg mL-1 tartaric acid, with a molar extinction coefficient of 450 L mg-1 cm-1 and ± 1 % repeatability. Sample throughput was 25 samples per hour. The flow-spectrophotometric method was satisfactorily applied to the quantification of tartaric acid (TA) in wines from different sources. Its accuracy was confirmed by statistical comparison to the conventional Rebelein procedure and to a certified analytical method carried out in a routine laboratory.

Fractional coins and fractional derivatives

This paper discusses the fundamentals of negative probabilities and fractional calculus. The historical evolution and the main mathematical concepts are discussed, and several analogies between the two apparently unrelated topics are established. Based on the new conceptual perspective, some experiments are performed shading new light into possible future progress.

A few what-ifs on using statistical analysis of stochastic simulation runs to extract timeliness properties

Modern real-time systems, with a more flexible and adaptive nature, demand approaches for timeliness evaluation based on probabilistic measures of meeting deadlines. In this context, simulation can emerge as an adequate solution to understand and analyze the timing behaviour of actual systems. However, care must be taken with the obtained outputs under the penalty of obtaining results with lack of credibility. Particularly important is to consider that we are more interested in values from the tail of a probability distribution (near worst-case probabilities), instead of deriving confidence on mean values. We approach this subject by considering the random nature of simulation output data. We will start by discussing well known approaches for estimating distributions out of simulation output, and the confidence which can be applied to its mean values. This is the basis for a discussion on the applicability of such approaches to derive confidence on the tail of distributions, where the worst-case is expected to be.

O tempo, um grande escultor

Mestrado em Educação e Intervenção Social - Desenvolvimento Comunitário e Educação de Adultos

Math without stress – an open online learning project

MOOC (as an acronym for Massive Open Online Courses) are a quite new model for the delivery of online learning to students. As “Massive” and “Online”, these courses are proposed to be accessible to many more learners than would be possible through conventional teaching. As “Open” they are (frequently) free of charge and participation is not limited by the geographical situation of the learners, creating new learning opportunities in Higher Education Institutions (HEI). In this paper we describe a recently started project “Matemática 100 STRESS” (Math Without STRESS) integrated in the e-IPP project | e-Learning Unit of Porto’s Polytechnic Institute (IPP) which has created its own MOOC platform and launched its first course – Probabilities and Combinatorics – in early June/2014. In this MOOC development were involved several lecturers from four of the seven IPP schools.

Rhapsody in fractional

This paper studies several topics related with the concept of “fractional” that are not directly related with Fractional Calculus, but can help the reader in pursuit new research directions. We introduce the concept of non-integer positional number systems, fractional sums, fractional powers of a square matrix, tolerant computing and FracSets, negative probabilities, fractional delay discrete-time linear systems, and fractional Fourier transform.

Gestão da cadeia de abastecimento de bens de consumo baseada em modelos de previsão lineares

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Politécnico do Porto para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Logística

Matemática 100 stress: um projeto aberto no IPP

A Era Tecnológica em que nos vemos inseridos, cujos avanços acontecem a uma velocidade vertiginosa exige, por parte das Instituições de Ensino Superior (IES) uma atitude proactiva no sentido de utilização dos muitos recursos disponíveis. Por outro lado, os elementos próprios da sociedade da informação – flexibilidade, formação ao longo da vida, acessibilidade à informação, mobilidade, entre muito outros – atuam como fortes impulsionadores externos para que as IES procurem e analisem novas modalidades formativas. Perante a mobilidade crescente, que se tem revelado massiva, a aprendizagem tende a ser cada vez mais individualizada, visual e prática. A conjugação de várias formas/tipologias de transmissão de conhecimento, de métodos didáticos e mesmo de ambientes e situações de aprendizagem induzem uma melhor adaptação do estudante, que poderá procurar aqueles que melhor vão ao encontro das suas expetativas, isto é, favorecem um processo de ensino-aprendizagem eficiente na perspetiva da forma de aprender de cada um. A definição de políticas estratégicas relacionadas com novas modalidades de ensino/formação tem sido uma preocupação constante na nossa instituição, nomeadamente no domínio do ensino à distância, seja ele e-Learning, b-Learning ou, mais recentemente, “open-Learning”, onde se inserem os MOOC – Massive Open Online Courses (não esquecendo a vertente m-Learning), de acordo com as várias tendências europeias (OECD, 2007) (Comissão Europeia, 2014) e com os objetivos da “Europa 2020”. Neste sentido surge o Projeto Matemática 100 STRESS, integrado no projeto e-IPP | Unidade de e-Learning do Politécnico do Porto que criou a sua plataforma MOOC, abrindo em junho de 2014 o seu primeiro curso – Probabilidades e Combinatória. Pretendemos dar a conhecer este Projeto, e em particular este curso, que envolveu vários docentes de diferentes unidades orgânicas do IPP.

Math without stress: an open online learning project

MOOC (as an acronym for Massive Open Online Courses) are a quite new model for the delivery of online learning to students. As “Massive” and “Online”, these courses are proposed to be accessible to many more learners than would be possible through conventional teaching. As “Open” they are (frequently) free of charge and participation is not limited by the geographical situation of the learners, creating new learning opportunities in Higher Education Institutions (HEI). In this paper we describe a recently started project “Matemática 100 STRESS” (Math Without STRESS) integrated in the e-IPP project | e-Learning Unit of Porto’s Polytechnic Institute (IPP) which has created its own MOOC platform and launched its first course – Probabilities and Combinatorics – in early June/2014. In this MOOC development were involved several lecturers from four of the seven IPP schools.

Rhapsody in Fractional

This paper studies several topics related with the concept of “fractional” that are not directly related with Fractional Calculus, but can help the reader in pursuit new research directions. We introduce the concept of non-integer positional number systems, fractional sums, fractional powers of a square matrix, tolerant computing and FracSets, negative probabilities, fractional delay discrete-time linear systems, and fractional Fourier transform.

Seguro de crédito

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação do Mestre Armindo Licínio da Silva Macedo

Effects of treatment, awareness and condom use in a coinfection model for HIV and HCV in MSM

We develop a new a coinfection model for hepatitis C virus (HCV) and the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We consider treatment for both diseases, screening, unawareness and awareness of HIV infection, and the use of condoms. We study the local stability of the disease-free equilibria for the full model and for the two submodels (HCV only and HIV only submodels). We sketch bifurcation diagrams for different parameters, such as the probabilities that a contact will result in a HIV or an HCV infection. We present numerical simulations of the full model where the HIV, HCV and double endemic equilibria can be observed. We also show numerically the qualitative changes of the dynamical behavior of the full model for variation of relevant parameters. We extrapolate the results from the model for actual measures that could be implemented in order to reduce the number of infected individuals.

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.