Adaptive learning in agents behaviour: a framework for electricity markets simulation

Electricity markets are complex environments with very particular characteristics. A critical issue regarding these specific characteristics concerns the constant changes they are subject to. This is a result of the electricity markets’ restructuring, which was performed so that the competitiveness could be increased, but it also had exponential implications in the increase of the complexity and unpredictability in those markets scope. The constant growth in markets unpredictability resulted in an amplified need for market intervenient entities in foreseeing market behaviour. The need for understanding the market mechanisms and how the involved players’ interaction affects the outcomes of the markets, contributed to the growth of usage of simulation tools. Multi-agent based software is particularly well fitted to analyze dynamic and adaptive systems with complex interactions among its constituents, such as electricity markets. This dissertation presents ALBidS – Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System, a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. This system is integrated with the MASCEM electricity market simulator, so that its advantage in supporting a market player can be tested using cases based on real markets’ data. ALBidS considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches, to provide alternative suggestions of which are the best actions for the supported player to perform. The approach chosen as the players’ actual action is selected by the employment of reinforcement learning algorithms, which for each different situation, simulation circumstances and context, decides which proposed action is the one with higher possibility of achieving the most success. Some of the considered approaches are supported by a mechanism that creates profiles of competitor players. These profiles are built accordingly to their observed past actions and reactions when faced with specific situations, such as success and failure. The system’s context awareness and simulation circumstances analysis, both in terms of results performance and execution time adaptation, are complementary mechanisms, which endow ALBidS with further adaptation and learning capabilities.

Planning and implementing a new assessment strategy using an e-learning platform

One of the most difficult issues of e-Learning is the students’ assessment. Being this an outstanding task regarding theoretical topics, it becomes even more challenging when the topics under evaluation are practical. ISCAP’s Information Systems Department is composed of about twenty teachers who have been for several years using an e-learning environment (at the moment Moodle 2.3) combined with traditional assessment. They are now planning and implementing a new e-learning assessment strategy. This effort was undertaken in order to evaluate a practical topic (the use of spreadsheets to solve management problems) common to shared courses of several undergraduate degree programs. The same team group is already experienced in the assessment of theoretical information systems topics using the b-learning platform. Therefore, this project works as an extension to previous experiences being the team aware of the additional difficulties due to the practical nature of the topics. This paper describes this project and presents two cycles of the action research methodology, used to conduct the research. The first cycle goal was to produce a database of questions. When it was implemented in order to be used with a pilot group of students, several problems were identified. Subsequently, the second cycle consisted in solving the identified problems preparing the database and all the players to a broader scope implementation. For each cycle, all the phases, its drawbacks and achievements are described. This paper suits all those who are or are planning to be in the process of shifting their assessment strategy from a traditional to one supported by an e-learning platform.

Work in progress - learning through role play games

It is commonly accepted that the educational environment has been undergoing considerable change due to the use of the Information and Communication tools. But learning depends upon actions such as experimenting, visualizing and demonstrating through which the learner succeeds in constructing his own knowledge. Although it is not easy to achieve these actions through current ICT supported learning approaches, Role Playing Games (RPG) may well develop such capacities. The creation of an interactive computer game with RPG characteristics, about the 500th anniversary of the city of Funchal, the capital of Madeira Island, is invested with compelling educational/pedagogical implications, aiming clearly at teaching history and social relations through playing. Players interpret different characters in different settings/scenarios, experiencing adventures, meeting challenges and trying to reach multiple and simultaneous goals in the areas of education, entertainment and social integration along the first 150 years of the history of Funchal. Through this process they will live and understand all the social and historical factors of that epoch.

Methodology for in-game certification in serious games

Serious games are starting to attain a higher role as tools for learning in various contexts, but in particular in areas such as education and training. Due to its characteristics, such as rules, behavior simulation and feedback to the player's actions, serious games provide a favorable learning environment where errors can occur without real life penalty and students get instant feedback from challenges. These challenges are in accordance with the intended objectives and will self-adapt and repeat according to the student’s difficulty level. Through motivating and engaging environments, which serve as base for problem solving and simulation of different situations and contexts, serious games have a great potential to aid players developing professional skills. But, how do we certify the acquired knowledge and skills? With this work we intend to propose a methodology to establish a relationship between the game mechanics of serious games and an array of competences for certification, evaluating the applicability of various aspects in the design and development of games such as the user interfaces and the gameplay, obtaining learning outcomes within the game itself. Through the definition of game mechanics combined with the necessary pedagogical elements, the game will ensure the certification. This paper will present a matrix of generic skills, based on the European Framework of Qualifications, and the definition of the game mechanics necessary for certification on tour guide training context. The certification matrix has as reference axes: skills, knowledge and competencies, which describe what the students should learn, understand and be able to do after they complete the learning process. The guides-interpreters welcome and accompany tourists on trips and visits to places of tourist interest and cultural heritage such as museums, palaces and national monuments, where they provide various information. Tour guide certification requirements include skills and specific knowledge about foreign languages and in the areas of History, Ethnology, Politics, Religion, Geography and Art of the territory where it is inserted. These skills are communication, interpersonal relationships, motivation, organization and management. This certification process aims to validate the skills to plan and conduct guided tours on the territory, demonstrate knowledge appropriate to the context and finally match a good group leader. After defining which competences are to be certified, the next step is to delineate the expected learning outcomes, as well as identify the game mechanics associated with it. The game mechanics, as methods invoked by agents for interaction with the game world, in combination with game elements/objects allows multiple paths through which to explore the game environment and its educational process. Mechanics as achievements, appointments, progression, reward schedules or status, describe how game can be designed to affect players in unprecedented ways. In order for the game to be able to certify tour guides, the design of the training game will incorporate a set of theoretical and practical tasks to acquire skills and knowledge of various transversal themes. For this end, patterns of skills and abilities in acquiring different knowledge will be identified.

Sistema de Visão Stereo Ativo aplicado aos robôs do ISePorto

A presente dissertação endereça o desenvolvimento de um sistema de visão stereo ativo para os robôs de futebol robótico da equipa ISePorto do ISEP, de modo a que estes tirem o máximo partido das câmaras rotativas neles existentes. Este trabalho surge da necessidade de melhorar a capacidade de perceção do ambiente por parte dos robôs, principalmente da perceção da bola quando não está no plano do campo e dos robôs adversários. Esta necessidade surge devido ao aumento da dinâmica que se tem vindo a veri car ultimamente nas competições. Para tal, foram estudados algumas trabalhos relacionados no que diz respeito a sistemas de visão stereo com baselines variáveis e eixos de rotação em ambas as câmaras, bem como fundamentos de visão stereo. Foi proposta uma arquitetura para o sistema de visão ativo de modo a ser aplicado em qualquer robô da equipa MSL (Middle Size League). Para tornar possível a implementação desta arquitetura foi desenvolvido um procedimento para a calibração e determinação em tempo real dos parâmetros extrínsecos do par stereo em função da posição angular dos eixos rotativos do robô. O sistema de visão foi também dotado de capacidade de sincronismo e foram implementadas funcionalidades ao nível de software que possibilitam a deteção de objetos na imagem, a correspondência de objetos presentes nas imagens de ambas as câmaras e consequentemente a determinação das posições tridimensionais desses objetos relativamente ao robô. O sistema desenvolvido foi testado e validado em cenário MSL ao nível de perceção da bola, robôs adversários e linhas do campo. Os resultados obtidos apresentam uma melhoria signi cativa, face à implementação atual dos robôs, na perceção tridimensional da bola quando não está no plano do campo, e dos robôs adversários.

Six thinking hats for electricity markets simulation: adapting meeting tools to agent decision

In almost all industrialized countries, the energy sector has suffered a severe restructuring that originated a greater complexity in market players’ interactions. The complexity that these changes brought made way for the creation of decision support tools that facilitate the study and understanding of these markets. MASCEM – “Multiagent Simulator for Competitive Electricity Markets” arose in this context providing a framework for evaluating new rules, new behaviour, and new participants in deregulated electricity markets. MASCEM uses game theory, machine learning techniques, scenario analysis and optimisation techniques to model market agents and to provide them with decision-support. ALBidS is a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. Fully integrated with MASCEM it considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches. The Six Thinking Hats is a powerful technique used to look at decisions from different perspectives. This tool’s goal is to force the thinker to move outside his habitual thinking style. It was developed to be used mainly at meetings in order to “run better meetings, make faster decisions”. This dissertation presents a study about the applicability of the Six Thinking Hats technique in Decision Support Systems, particularly with the multiagent paradigm like the MASCEM simulator. As such this work’s proposal is of a new agent, a meta-learner based on STH technique that organizes several different ALBidS’ strategies and combines the distinct answers into a single one that, expectedly, out-performs any of them.

Demand response management in power systems using a particle swarm optimization approach

Competitive electricity markets have arisen as a result of power-sector restructuration and power-system deregulation. The players participating in competitive electricity markets must define strategies and make decisions using all the available information and business opportunities.

Mixed integer non linear programming and artificial neural network based approach to ancillary services dispatch in competitive electricity markets

Ancillary services represent a good business opportunity that must be considered by market players. This paper presents a new methodology for ancillary services market dispatch. The method considers the bids submitted to the market and includes a market clearing mechanism based on deterministic optimization. An Artificial Neural Network is used for day-ahead prediction of Regulation Down, regulation-up, Spin Reserve and Non-Spin Reserve requirements. Two test cases based on California Independent System Operator data concerning dispatch of Regulation Down, Regulation Up, Spin Reserve and Non-Spin Reserve services are included in this paper to illustrate the application of the proposed method: (1) dispatch considering simple bids; (2) dispatch considering complex bids.

Strategic bidding in electricity markets: an agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

Legal and political regulation of higher education in Portugal: an evolutionary perspective on the current policy issues and the problem of order

The higher education system in Europe is currently under stress and the debates over its reform and future are gaining momentum. Now that, for most countries, we are in a time for change, in the overall society and the whole education system, the legal and political dimensions have gained prominence, which has not been followed by a more integrative approach of the problem of order, its reform and the issue of regulation, beyond the typical static and classical cost-benefit analyses. The two classical approaches for studying (and for designing the policy measures of) the problem of the reform of the higher education system - the cost-benefit analysis and the legal scholarship description - have to be integrated. This is the argument of our paper that the very integration of economic and legal approaches, what Warren Samuels called the legal-economic nexus, is meaningful and necessary, especially if we want to address the problem of order (as formulated by Joseph Spengler) and the overall regulation of the system. On the one hand, and without neglecting the interest and insights gained from the cost-benefit analysis, or other approaches of value for money assessment, we will focus our study on the legal, social and political aspects of the regulation of the higher education system and its reform in Portugal. On the other hand, the economic and financial problems have to be taken into account, but in a more inclusive way with regard to the indirect and other socio-economic costs not contemplated in traditional or standard assessments of policies for the tertiary education sector. In the first section of the paper, we will discuss the theoretical and conceptual underpinning of our analysis, focusing on the evolutionary approach, the role of critical institutions, the legal-economic nexus and the problem of order. All these elements are related to the institutional tradition, from Veblen and Commons to Spengler and Samuels. The second section states the problem of regulation in the higher education system and the issue of policy formulation for tackling the problem. The current situation is clearly one of crisis with the expansion of the cohorts of young students coming to an end and the recurrent scandals in private institutions. In the last decade, after a protracted period of extension or expansion of the system, i. e., the continuous growth of students, universities and other institutions are competing harder to gain students and have seen their financial situation at risk. It seems that we are entering a period of radical uncertainty, higher competition and a new configuration that is slowly building up is the growth in intensity, which means upgrading the quality of the higher learning and getting more involvement in vocational training and life-long learning. With this change, and along with other deep ones in the Portuguese society and economy, the current regulation has shown signs of maladjustment. The third section consists of our conclusions on the current issue of regulation and policy challenge. First, we underline the importance of an evolutionary approach to a process of change that is essentially dynamic. A special attention will be given to the issues related to an evolutionary construe of policy analysis and formulation. Second, the integration of law and economics, through the notion of legal economic nexus, allows us to better define the issues of regulation and the concrete problems that the universities are facing. One aspect is the instability of the political measures regarding the public administration and on which the higher education system depends financially, legally and institutionally, to say the least. A corollary is the lack of clear strategy in the policy reforms. Third, our research criticizes several studies, such as the one made by the OECD in late 2006 for the Ministry of Science, Technology and Higher Education, for being too static and neglecting fundamental aspects of regulation such as the logic of actors, groups and organizations who are major players in the system. Finally, simply changing the legal rules will not necessary per se change the behaviors that the authorities want to change. By this, we mean that it is not only remiss of the policy maker to ignore some of the critical issues of regulation, namely the continuous non-respect by academic management and administrative bodies of universities of the legal rules that were once promulgated. Changing the rules does not change the problem, especially without the necessary debates form the different relevant quarters that make up the higher education system. The issues of social interaction remain as intact. Our treatment of the matter will be organized in the following way. In the first section, the theoretical principles are developed in order to be able to study more adequately the higher education transformation with a modest evolutionary theory and a legal and economic nexus of the interactions of the system and the policy challenges. After describing, in the second section, the recent evolution and current working of the higher education in Portugal, we will analyze the legal framework and the current regulatory practices and problems in light of the theoretical framework adopted. We will end with some conclusions on the current problems of regulation and the policy measures that are discusses in recent years.

A proposal for media component brokerage

This paper describes how MPEG-4 object based video (obv) can be used to allow selected objects to be inserted into the play-out stream to a specific user based on a profile derived for that user. The application scenario described here is for personalized product placement, and considers the value of this application in the current and evolving commercial media distribution market given the huge emphasis media distributors are currently placing on targeted advertising. This level of application of video content requires a sophisticated content description and metadata system (e.g., MPEG-7). The scenario considers the requirement for global libraries to provide the objects to be inserted into the streams. The paper then considers the commercial trading of objects between the libraries, video service providers, advertising agencies and other parties involved in the service. Consequently a brokerage of video objects is proposed based on negotiation and trading using intelligent agents representing the various parties. The proposed Media Brokerage Platform is a multi-agent system structured in two layers. In the top layer, there is a collection of coarse grain agents representing the real world players – the providers and deliverers of media contents and the market regulator profiler – and, in the bottom layer, there is a set of finer grain agents constituting the marketplace – the delegate agents and the market agent. For knowledge representation (domain, strategic and negotiation protocols) we propose a Semantic Web approach based on ontologies. The media components contents should be represented in MPEG-7 and the metadata describing the objects to be traded should follow a specific ontology. The top layer content providers and deliverers are modelled by intelligent autonomous agents that express their will to transact – buy or sell – media components by registering at a service registry. The market regulator profiler creates, according to the selected profile, a market agent, which, in turn, checks the service registry for potential trading partners for a given component and invites them for the marketplace. The subsequent negotiation and actual transaction is performed by delegate agents in accordance with their profiles and the predefined rules of the market.

A importância da Sequenza V (Luciano Berio) no desenvolvimento do trombone

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Música - Interpretação Artística

Uncertainty in a mixed duopoly with quadratic costs

In this paper, we consider a mixed market with uncertain demand, involving one private firm and one public firm with quadratic costs. The model is a two-stage game in which players choose to make their output decisions either in stage 1 or stage 2. We assume that the demand is unknown until the end of the first stage. We compute the output levels at equilibrium in each possible role. We also determine ex-ante and ex-post firms’ payoff functions.

Aplicação de advergames no contexto do Ensino Superior

As novas tecnologias, e a Internet em particular, criaram novas formas de transmissão de informação para o público e alteraram a forma como as pessoas comunicam. Isto abriu portas a novas formas de publicidade e ao aparecimento de um novo género de jogos, os advergames, aproveitando o facto dos jogos online contarem já com milhões de jogadores a nível mundial, um número que continua em constante crescimento. O conceito é relativamente recente mas apresenta resultados bastante positivos, com muitos especialistas a defender que os advergames são o futuro da publicidade, em grande parte devido aos custos inferiores e ao tempo de exposição do produto, quando comparado com os métodos mais tradicionais de publicidade. Os Jogos Sérios e, em especial, os advergames são o tema principal desta tese, com uma análise detalhada das suas vantagens e desvantagens, origens e oportunidade de desenvolvimento no futuro. São também analisados alguns casos de advergames de sucesso. A componente prática da tese tem como objetivo a criação de um advergame com o propósito principal de auxiliar os novos alunos do ISEP no seu processo de integração. O jogo consiste num formato de labirinto em duas dimensões, com objetivos que consistem na captura de certos objetos e entrega dos mesmos em pontos de destino pré-definidos, sempre dentro de um tempo limite e evitando outros perigos e obstáculos. Os resultados obtidos com a aplicação deste jogo demonstram que a transmissão de informação é bastante eficaz junto do seu público-alvo, devido em parte à abordagem mais dinâmica e interativa que um advergame tem com os seus utilizadores. A simplicidade da interface e facilidade de utilização proporcionada pelo jogo permitem uma exposição alargada da mensagem a passar, aumentando a motivação do jogador para se manter em contacto com o mesmo. Isto apresenta perspetivas bastante otimistas para o futuro da utilização de advergames no meio Universitário.

Testes de resistência, flexibilidade, e ativação/controlo muscular da região lombo pélvica em futebolistas amadores com e sem dor lombar

Introdução: A dor lombar é comum manifestar-se em atletas de futebol, pelo que se torna importante utilizar testes clínicos como forma de detetar alterações que estejam associadas à presença de dor lombar. Objetivo: Identificar a relação entre a presença de dor lombar e os testes de resistência, flexibilidade e ativação/controlo muscular da região lombo pélvica em futebolistas com e sem dor lombar. Métodos: Realizou-se o presente estudo transversal numa amostra de 25 futebolistas amadores, dos quais 8 apresentavam dor lombar. Foi avaliada a resistência e os rácios dos músculos globais do tronco, a flexibilidade dos flexores e extensores da anca bem como a ativação/controlo dos músculos transverso do abdómen e multífidos. Resultados: Os atletas com lombalgia apresentaram uma diminuição significativa do tempo de resistência muscular dos vários grupos musculares do tronco e da flexibilidade muscular comparativamente aos atletas sem lombalgia. Foi também identificado um aumento significativo no rácio flexores/extensores do tronco. Relativamente aos testes de ativação muscular, não foram encontradas associações com a presença de dor lombar. Conclusão: A aplicação de testes de resistência e flexibilidade parece diferenciar os indivíduos com e sem dor lombar, não se tendo verificado o mesmo quanto à ativação do transverso do abdómen e dos multífidos.