29 resultados para Bayesian method
em Reposit
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In this article, we present the first study on probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Northeast (NE) Atlantic region related to earthquake sources. The methodology combines the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical approaches. We consider three main tsunamigenic areas, namely the Southwest Iberian Margin, the Gloria, and the Caribbean. For each tsunamigenic zone, we derive the annual recurrence rate for each magnitude range, from Mw 8.0 up to Mw 9.0, with a regular interval, using the Bayesian method, which incorporates seismic information from historical and instrumental catalogs. A numerical code, solving the shallow water equations, is employed to simulate the tsunami propagation and compute near shore wave heights. The probability of exceeding a specific tsunami hazard level during a given time period is calculated using the Poisson distribution. The results are presented in terms of the probability of exceedance of a given tsunami amplitude for 100- and 500-year return periods. The hazard level varies along the NE Atlantic coast, being maximum along the northern segment of the Morocco Atlantic coast, the southern Portuguese coast, and the Spanish coast of the Gulf of Cadiz. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere in the NE Atlantic region reaches 60 and 100 % for 100- and 500-year return periods, respectively. These probability values decrease, respectively, to about 15 and 50 % when considering the exceedance threshold of 5 m for the same return periods of 100 and 500 years.
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This paper is on the problem of short-term hydro scheduling, particularly concerning head-dependent reservoirs under competitive environment. We propose a new nonlinear optimization method to consider hydroelectric power generation as a function of water discharge and also of the head. Head-dependency is considered on short-term hydro scheduling in order to obtain more realistic and feasible results. The proposed method has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, providing a higher profit at a negligible additional computation time in comparison with a linear optimization method that ignores head-dependency.
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Since collaborative networked organisations are usually formed by independent and heterogeneous entities, it is natural that each member holds his own set of values, and that conflicts among partners might emerge because of some misalignment of values. In contrast, it is often stated in literature that the alignment between the value systems of members involved in collaborative processes is a prerequisite for successful co-working. As a result, the issue of core value alignment in collaborative networks started to attract attention. However, methods to analyse such alignment are lacking mainly because the concept of 'alignment' in this context is still ill defined and shows a multifaceted nature. As a contribution to the area, this article introduces an approach based on causal models and graph theory for the analysis of core value alignment in collaborative networks. The potential application of the approach is then discussed in the virtual organisations' breeding environment context.
Resumo:
Collaborative networks are typically formed by heterogeneous and autonomous entities, and thus it is natural that each member has its own set of core-values. Since these values somehow drive the behaviour of the involved entities, the ability to quickly identify partners with compatible or common core-values represents an important element for the success of collaborative networks. However, tools to assess or measure the level of alignment of core-values are lacking. Since the concept of 'alignment' in this context is still ill-defined and shows a multifaceted nature, three perspectives are discussed. The first one uses a causal maps approach in order to capture, structure, and represent the influence relationships among core-values. This representation provides the basis to measure the alignment in terms of the structural similarity and influence among value systems. The second perspective considers the compatibility and incompatibility among core-values in order to define the alignment level. Under this perspective we propose a fuzzy inference system to estimate the alignment level, since this approach allows dealing with variables that are vaguely defined, and whose inter-relationships are difficult to define. Another advantage provided by this method is the possibility to incorporate expert human judgment in the definition of the alignment level. The last perspective uses a belief Bayesian network method, and was selected in order to assess the alignment level based on members' past behaviour. An example of application is presented where the details of each method are discussed.
Resumo:
Fluorescence confocal microscopy (FCM) is now one of the most important tools in biomedicine research. In fact, it makes it possible to accurately study the dynamic processes occurring inside the cell and its nucleus by following the motion of fluorescent molecules over time. Due to the small amount of acquired radiation and the huge optical and electronics amplification, the FCM images are usually corrupted by a severe type of Poisson noise. This noise may be even more damaging when very low intensity incident radiation is used to avoid phototoxicity. In this paper, a Bayesian algorithm is proposed to remove the Poisson intensity dependent noise corrupting the FCM image sequences. The observations are organized in a 3-D tensor where each plane is one of the images acquired along the time of a cell nucleus using the fluorescence loss in photobleaching (FLIP) technique. The method removes simultaneously the noise by considering different spatial and temporal correlations. This is accomplished by using an anisotropic 3-D filter that may be separately tuned in space and in time dimensions. Tests using synthetic and real data are described and presented to illustrate the application of the algorithm. A comparison with several state-of-the-art algorithms is also presented.
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This paper presents a direct power control (DPC) for three-phase matrix converters operating as unified power flow controllers (UPFCs). Matrix converters (MCs) allow the direct ac/ac power conversion without dc energy storage links; therefore, the MC-based UPFC (MC-UPFC) has reduced volume and cost, reduced capacitor power losses, together with higher reliability. Theoretical principles of direct power control (DPC) based on sliding mode control techniques are established for an MC-UPFC dynamic model including the input filter. As a result, line active and reactive power, together with ac supply reactive power, can be directly controlled by selecting an appropriate matrix converter switching state guaranteeing good steady-state and dynamic responses. Experimental results of DPC controllers for MC-UPFC show decoupled active and reactive power control, zero steady-state tracking error, and fast response times. Compared to an MC-UPFC using active and reactive power linear controllers based on a modified Venturini high-frequency PWM modulator, the experimental results of the advanced DPC-MC guarantee faster responses without overshoot and no steady-state error, presenting no cross-coupling in dynamic and steady-state responses.
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Mestrado em Medicina Nuclear.
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The conventional methods used to evaluate chitin content in fungi, such as biochemical assessment of glucosamine release after acid hydrolysis or epifluorescence microscopy, are low throughput, laborious, time-consuming, and cannot evaluate a large number of cells. We developed a flow cytometric assay, efficient, and fast, based on Calcofluor White staining to measure chitin content in yeast cells. A staining index was defined, its value was directly related to chitin amount and taking into consideration the different levels of autofluorecence. Twenty-two Candida spp. and four Cryptococcus neoformans clinical isolates with distinct susceptibility profiles to caspofungin were evaluated. Candida albicans clinical isolate SC5314, and isogenic strains with deletions in chitin synthase 3 (chs3Δ/chs3Δ) and genes encoding predicted Glycosyl Phosphatidyl Inositol (GPI)-anchored proteins (pga31Δ/Δ and pga62Δ/Δ), were used as controls. As expected, the wild-type strain displayed a significant higher chitin content (P < 0.001) than chs3Δ/chs3Δ and pga31Δ/Δ especially in the presence of caspofungin. Ca. parapsilosis, Ca. tropicalis, and Ca. albicans showed higher cell wall chitin content. Although no relationship between chitin content and antifungal drug susceptibility phenotype was found, an association was established between the paradoxical growth effect in the presence of high caspofungin concentrations and the chitin content. This novel flow cytometry protocol revealed to be a simple and reliable assay to estimate cell wall chitin content of fungi.
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In order to evaluate the capacity of laser scanning cytometry (LSC) to detect acid-fast bacilli directly on clinical samples, a comparison between Kinyoun-stained smears analyzed under light microscopy and propidium iodide-auramine-stained smears analyzed by LSC was performed. The results were compared with those for culture on BACTEC MGIT 960. LSC is a new, reliable methodology to detect Mycobacteria.
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This study was carried out with the aim of modeling in 2D, in plain strain, the movement of a soft cohesive soil around a pile, in order to enable the determination of stresses resulting along the pile, per unit length. The problem in study fits into the large deformations problem and can be due to landslide, be close of depth excavations, to be near of zones where big loads are applied in the soil, etc. In this study is used an constitutive Elasto-Plastic model with the failure criterion of Mohr-Coulomb to model the soil behavior. The analysis is developed considering the soil in undrained conditions. To the modeling is used the finite element program PLAXIS, which use the Updated Lagrangian - Finite Element Method (UL-FEM). In this work, special attention is given to the soil-pile interaction, where is presented with some detail the formulation of the interface elements and some studies for a better understand of his behavior. It is developed a 2-D model that simulates the effect of depth allowing the study of his influence in the stress distribution around the pile. The results obtained give an important base about how behaves the movement of the soil around a pile, about how work the finite element program PLAXIS and how is the stress distribution around the pile. The analysis demonstrate that the soil-structure interaction modeled with the UL-FEM and interface elements is more appropriate to small deformations problems.
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Functionally graded materials are composite materials wherein the composition of the constituent phases can vary in a smooth continuous way with a gradation which is function of its spatial coordinates. This characteristic proves to be an important issue as it can minimize abrupt variations of the material properties which are usually responsible for localized high values of stresses, and simultaneously providing an effective thermal barrier in specific applications. In the present work, it is studied the static and free vibration behaviour of functionally graded sandwich plate type structures, using B-spline finite strip element models based on different shear deformation theories. The effective properties of functionally graded materials are estimated according to Mori-Tanaka homogenization scheme. These sandwich structures can also consider the existence of outer skins of piezoelectric materials, thus achieving them adaptive characteristics. The performance of the models, are illustrated through a set of test cases. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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This paper addresses the problem of optimal positioning of surface bonded piezoelectric patches in sandwich plates with viscoelastic core and laminated face layers. The objective is to maximize a set of modal loss factors for a given frequency range using multiobjective topology optimization. Active damping is introduced through co-located negative velocity feedback control. The multiobjective topology optimization problem is solved using the Direct MultiSearch Method. An application to a simply supported sandwich plate is presented with results for the maximization of the first six modal loss factors. The influence of the finite element mesh is analyzed and the results are, to some extent, compared with those obtained using alternative single objective optimization. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Previous Monte Carlo studies have investigated the multileaf collimator (MLC) contribution to the build-up region for fields in which the MLC leaves were fully blocking the openings defined by the collimation jaws. In the present work, we investigate the same effect but for symmetric and asymmetric MLC defined field sizes (2×2, 4×4, 10×10 and 3×7 cm2). A Varian 2100C/D accelerator with 120-leaf MLC is accurately modeled fora6MVphoton beam using the BEAMnrc/EGSnrc code. Our results indicate that particles scattered from accelerator head and MLC are responsible for the increase of about 7% on the surface dose when comparing 2×2 and 10×10 cm2 fields. We found that the MLC contribution to the total build-up dose is about 2% for the 2×2 cm2 field and less than 1% for the largest fields.
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In this work liver contour is semi-automatically segmented and quantified in order to help the identification and diagnosis of diffuse liver disease. The features extracted from the liver contour are jointly used with clinical and laboratorial data in the staging process. The classification results of a support vector machine, a Bayesian and a k-nearest neighbor classifier are compared. A population of 88 patients at five different stages of diffuse liver disease and a leave-one-out cross-validation strategy are used in the classification process. The best results are obtained using the k-nearest neighbor classifier, with an overall accuracy of 80.68%. The good performance of the proposed method shows a reliable indicator that can improve the information in the staging of diffuse liver disease.
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Steatosis, also known as fatty liver, corresponds to an abnormal retention of lipids within the hepatic cells and reflects an impairment of the normal processes of synthesis and elimination of fat. Several causes may lead to this condition, namely obesity, diabetes, or alcoholism. In this paper an automatic classification algorithm is proposed for the diagnosis of the liver steatosis from ultrasound images. The features are selected in order to catch the same characteristics used by the physicians in the diagnosis of the disease based on visual inspection of the ultrasound images. The algorithm, designed in a Bayesian framework, computes two images: i) a despeckled one, containing the anatomic and echogenic information of the liver, and ii) an image containing only the speckle used to compute the textural features. These images are computed from the estimated RF signal generated by the ultrasound probe where the dynamic range compression performed by the equipment is taken into account. A Bayes classifier, trained with data manually classified by expert clinicians and used as ground truth, reaches an overall accuracy of 95% and a 100% of sensitivity. The main novelties of the method are the estimations of the RF and speckle images which make it possible to accurately compute textural features of the liver parenchyma relevant for the diagnosis.