A gestão do risco associado à negociação de energia eléctrica através de contratos bilaterais e mercado spot

Num mercado de electricidade competitivo onde existe um ambiente de incerteza, as empresas de geração adoptam estratégias que visam a maximização do lucro, e a minimização do risco. Neste contexto, é de extrema importância para desenvolver uma estratégia adequada de gestão de risco ter em conta as diferentes opções de negociação de energia num mercado liberalizado, de forma a suportar a tomada de decisões na gestão de risco. O presente trabalho apresenta um modelo que avalia a melhor estratégia de um produtor de energia eléctrica que comercializa num mercado competitivo, onde existem dois mercados possíveis para a transacção de energia: o mercado organizado (bolsa) e o mercado de contratos bilaterais. O produtor tenta maximizar seus lucros e minimizar os riscos correspondentes, seleccionando o melhor equilíbrio entre os dois mercados possíveis (bolsa e bilateral). O mercado de contratos bilaterais visa gerir adequadamente os riscos inerentes à operação de mercados no curto prazo (mercado organizado) e dar o vendedor / comprador uma capacidade real de escolher o fornecedor com que quer negociar. O modelo apresentado neste trabalho faz uma caracterização explícita do risco no que diz respeito ao agente de mercado na questão da sua atitude face ao risco, medido pelo Value at Risk (VaR), descrito neste trabalho por Lucro-em-Risco (PAR). O preço e os factores de risco de volume são caracterizados por um valor médio e um desvio padrão, e são modelizados por distribuições normais. Os resultados numéricos são obtidos utilizando a simulação de Monte Carlo implementado em Matlab, e que é aplicado a um produtor que mantém uma carteira diversificada de tecnologias de geração, para um horizonte temporal de um ano. Esta dissertação está organizada da seguinte forma: o capítulo 1, 2 e 3 descrevem o estado-da-arte relacionado com a gestão de risco na comercialização de energia eléctrica. O capítulo 4 descreve o modelo desenvolvido e implementado, onde é também apresentado um estudo de caso com uma aplicação do modelo para avaliar o risco de negociação de um produtor. No capítulo 5 são apresentadas as principais conclusões.

Laser scanned photodiodes (LSPs) for image sensing

An optimized ZnO:Al/a-pin SixC1-x:H/Al configuration for the laser scanned photodiode (LSP) imaging detector is proposed and the read-out parameters improved. The effect of the sensing element structure, cell configuration and light source flux are investigated and correlated with the sensor output characteristics. Data reveals that for sensors with wide band gap doped layers an increase on the image signal optimized to the blue is achieved with a dynamic range of two orders of magnitude, a responsivity of 6 mA W-1 and a sensitivity of 17 muW cm(-2) at 530 nm. The main output characteristics such as image responsivity, resolution, linearity and dynamic range were analyzed under reverse, forward and short circuit modes. The results show that the sensor performance can be optimized in short circuit mode. A trade-off between the scan time and the required resolution is needed since the spot size limits the resolution due to the cross-talk between dark and illuminated regions leading to blurring effects.

Optical properties and transport in PLD-GaN

We present structural, optical and transport data on GaN samples grown by hybrid, two-step low temperature pulsed laser deposition. The band gap of samples with good crystallinity has been deduced from optical spectra. Large below gap band tails were observed. In samples with the lowest crystalline quality the PL spectra are quite dependent on spot laser incidence. The most intense PL lines can be attributed to excitons bounded to stacking faults. When the crystalline quality of the samples is increased the ubiquitous yellow emission band can be detected following a quenching process described by a similar activation energy to that one found in MOCVD grown samples. The samples with the highest quality present, besides the yellow band, show a large near band edge emission which peaked at 3.47 eV and could be observed up to room temperature. The large width of the NBE is attributed to effect of a wide distribution of band tail states on the excitons. Photoconductivity data supports this interpretation.

The problem of estimating the volatility of zero coupon bond interest rate

Financial literature and financial industry use often zero coupon yield curves as input for testing hypotheses, pricing assets or managing risk. They assume this provided data as accurate. We analyse implications of the methodology and of the sample selection criteria used to estimate the zero coupon bond yield term structure on the resulting volatility of spot rates with different maturities. We obtain the volatility term structure using historical volatilities and Egarch volatilities. As input for these volatilities we consider our own spot rates estimation from GovPX bond data and three popular interest rates data sets: from the Federal Reserve Board, from the US Department of the Treasury (H15), and from Bloomberg. We find strong evidence that the resulting zero coupon bond yield volatility estimates as well as the correlation coefficients among spot and forward rates depend significantly on the data set. We observe relevant differences in economic terms when volatilities are used to price derivatives.

Futuros: estudo de caso sobre futuros cambiais

Mestrado em Contabilidade

Increasing source to image distance for AP pelvis imaging: impact on radiation dose and image quality

Aim - A quantative primary study to determine whether increasing source to image distance (SID), with and without the use of automatic exposure control (AEC) for antero-posterior (AP) pelvis imaging, reduces dose whilst still producing an image of diagnostic quality. Methods - Using a computed radiography (CR) system, an anthropomorphic pelvic phantom was positioned for an AP examination using the table bucky. SID was initially set at 110 cm, with tube potential set at a constant 75 kVp, with two outer chambers selected and a fine focal spot of 0.6 mm. SID was then varied from 90 cm to 140 cm with two exposures made at each 5 cm interval, one using the AEC and another with a constant 16 mAs derived from the initial exposure. Effective dose (E) and entrance surface dose (ESD) were calculated for each acquisition. Seven experienced observers blindly graded image quality using a 5-point Likert scale and 2 Alternative Forced Choice software. Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) was calculated for comparison. For each acquisition, femoral head diameter was also measured for magnification indication. Results - Results demonstrated that when increasing SID from 110 cm to 140 cm, both E and ESD reduced by 3.7% and 17.3% respectively when using AEC and 50.13% and 41.79% respectively, when the constant mAs was used. No significant statistical (T-test) difference (p = 0.967) between image quality was detected when increasing SID, with an intra-observer correlation of 0.77 (95% confidence level). SNR reduced slightly for both AEC (38%) and no AEC (36%) with increasing SID. Conclusion - For CR, increasing SID significantly reduces both E and ESD for AP pelvis imaging without adversely affecting image quality.

O efeito da música na relação entre marca e consumidor

Dissertação apresentada à Escola Superior de Comunicação Social como parte dos requisitos para obtenção de grau de mestre em Publicidade e Marketing.

A imagem feminina: os apelos na publicidade dirigida ao público infantil

Dissertação apresentada à Escola Superior de Comunicação Social como parte dos requisitos para obtenção de grau de mestre em Publicidade e Marketing.

Impact of a training course on the quality of malaria diagnosis by microscopy in Angola

Background: In Angola, malaria is an endemic disease having a major impact on the economy. The WHO recommends testing for all suspected malaria cases, to avoid the presumptive treatment of this disease. In malaria endemic regions laboratory technicians must be very comfortable with microscopy, the golden standard for malaria diagnosis, to avoid the incorrect diagnosis. The improper use of medication promotes drug resistance and undesirable side effects. The present study aims to assess the impact of a three-day refresher course on the knowledge of technicians, quality of blood smears preparation and accuracy of microscopy malaria diagnosis, using qPCR as reference method. Methods: This study was implemented in laboratories from three hospitals in different provinces of Angola: Bengo, Benguela and Luanda. In each laboratory samples were collected before and after the training course (slide with thin and thick blood smears, a dried blood spot and a form). The impact of the intervention was evaluated through a written test, the quality of slide preparation and the performance of microscopy. Results: It was found a significant increase on the written test median score, from 52.5% to 65.0%. A total of 973 slides were analysed to evaluate the quality of thick and thin blood smears. Considering all laboratories there was a significant increase in quality of thick and thin blood smears. To determine the performance of microscopy using qPCR as the reference method we used 1,028 samples. Benguela presented the highest values for specificity, 92.9% and 98.8% pre and post-course, respectively and for sensitivity the best pre-course was Benguela (75.9%) and post-course Luanda (75.0%). However, no significant increase in sensitivity and specificity after the training course was registered in any laboratory analysed. Discussion: The findings of this study support the need of continuous refresher training for microscopists and other laboratory staff. The laboratories should have a quality control programme to supervise the diagnosis and also to assess the periodicity of new training. However, other variables needed to be considered to have a correct malaria diagnosis, such as adequate equipment and reagents for staining and visualization, good working conditions, motivated and qualified personnel.

Magma flow pattern in dykes of the Azores revealed by ansiotropy of magnetic susceptibility

The localization of magma melting areas at the lithosphere bottom in extensional volcanic domains is poorly understood. Large polygenetic volcanoes of long duration and their associated magma chambers suggest that melting at depth may be focused at specific points within the mantle. To validate the hypothesis that the magma feeding a mafic crust, comes from permanent localized crustal reservoirs, it is necessary to map the fossilized magma flow within the crustal planar intrusions. Using the AMS, we obtain magmatic flow vectors from 34 alkaline basaltic dykes from São Jorge, São Miguel and Santa Maria islands in the Azores Archipelago, a hot-spot related triple junction. The dykes contain titanomagnetite showing a wide spectrum of solid solution ranging from Ti-rich to Ti-poor compositions with vestiges of maghemitization. Most of the dykes exhibit a normal magnetic fabric. The orientation of the magnetic lineation k1 axis is more variable than that of the k3 axis, which is generally well grouped. The dykes of São Jorge and São Miguel show a predominance of subhorizontal magmatic flows. In Santa Maria the deduced flow pattern is less systematic changing from subhorizontal in the southern part of the island to oblique in north. These results suggest that the ascent of magma beneath the islands of Azores is predominantly over localized melting sources and then collected within shallow magma chambers. According to this concept, dykes in the upper levels of the crust propagate laterally away from these magma chambers thus feeding the lava flows observed at the surface.