Interest rate exposure of Spanish banks: A nonparametric analysis

Interest rate risk is one of the major financial risks faced by banks due to the very nature of the banking business. The most common approach in the literature has been to estimate the impact of interest rate risk on banks using a simple linear regression model. However, the relationship between interest rate changes and bank stock returns does not need to be exclusively linear. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the interest rate exposure of the Spanish banking industry employing both parametric and non parametric estimation methods. Its main contribution is to use, for the first time in the context of banks’ interest rate risk, a nonparametric regression technique that avoids the assumption of a specific functional form. One the one hand, it is found that the Spanish banking sector exhibits a remarkable degree of interest rate exposure, although the impact of interest rate changes on bank stock returns has significantly declined following the introduction of the euro. Further, a pattern of positive exposure emerges during the post-euro period. On the other hand, the results corresponding to the nonparametric model support the expansion of the conventional linear model in an attempt to gain a greater insight into the actual degree of exposure.

The problem of estimating the volatility of zero coupon bond interest rate

Financial literature and financial industry use often zero coupon yield curves as input for testing hypotheses, pricing assets or managing risk. They assume this provided data as accurate. We analyse implications of the methodology and of the sample selection criteria used to estimate the zero coupon bond yield term structure on the resulting volatility of spot rates with different maturities. We obtain the volatility term structure using historical volatilities and Egarch volatilities. As input for these volatilities we consider our own spot rates estimation from GovPX bond data and three popular interest rates data sets: from the Federal Reserve Board, from the US Department of the Treasury (H15), and from Bloomberg. We find strong evidence that the resulting zero coupon bond yield volatility estimates as well as the correlation coefficients among spot and forward rates depend significantly on the data set. We observe relevant differences in economic terms when volatilities are used to price derivatives.

The impact of financial disclosures in the measurement of notional interest rate swaps in the period of 2007-2012

Mestrado em Contabilidade

Os swaps de taxas de juro como instrumentos de cobertura de risco nas demonstrações financeiras

Mestrado em Contabilidade

Os efeitos das variações das taxas de juro na volatilidade dos mercados bolsistas

Mestrado em Controlo de Gestão e dos Negócios

Contratos de Futuros sobre Taxas de Juro

Mestrado em Contabilidade Internacional

Contratos de futuros sobre taxas de juro : estudo de caso sobre a Euribor a 3 meses

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Análise Financeira

Machine learning Vasicek model calibration with Gaussian processes

In this article, we calibrate the Vasicek interest rate model under the risk neutral measure by learning the model parameters using Gaussian processes for machine learning regression. The calibration is done by maximizing the likelihood of zero coupon bond log prices, using mean and covariance functions computed analytically, as well as likelihood derivatives with respect to the parameters. The maximization method used is the conjugate gradients. The only prices needed for calibration are zero coupon bond prices and the parameters are directly obtained in the arbitrage free risk neutral measure.

Evolução do crédito concedido e vencido em Portugal, por setores de atividade, no período de 2008 a 2012

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras

Atividade Bancária - Condicionantes do Crédito nos Particulares Caixa Leasing & Factoring – Instituição Financeira de Crédito, S.A

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Análise Financeira