The portuguese insurance industry: basis for strategic process decision

Nowadays, the Portuguese insurance industry operates in a market with a much more aggressive structure than a few decades ago. Markets and the economy have become globalised since the last decade of the 20th century. Market forces have gradually shifted – power is now mainly on the demand side. In order to meet the new requirements, the insurance industry must develop a strong strategic ability to respond to constant changes of the new international economic order.One of the basic aspects of this strategic development will focus on the ability to predict the future. We introduce the subject by briefly describing the sector, its organisational structure in the Portuguese market, and challenges arising from the development of the European Union. We then analyse the economic and financial structure of the sector. From this point of view, we aim at the possibility of designing models that could explain the demand for insurance, claims and technical reserves evolution. Such models, (even if based on the past), would resolve, at least partly, one of the greatest difficulties experienced by insurance companies when estimating the budget. Thus, we examine the existence of variables that explain the previous points, which are capable of forming a basis for designing models that are simple but efficient, and can be used for strategic planning.

Risk Aversion in a Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Approach to Support Decision-Making for a Hydro Power Producer

In this paper, a mixed-integer nonlinear approach is proposed to support decision-making for a hydro power producer, considering a head-dependent hydro chain. The aim is to maximize the profit of the hydro power producer from selling energy into the electric market. As a new contribution to earlier studies, a risk aversion criterion is taken into account, as well as head-dependency. The volatility of the expected profit is limited through the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). The proposed approach has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems.

Increasing availability through maintainability growth using partial Multi Criteria Decision Making (pMCDM)

In the last decades considerations about equipments' availability became an important issue, as well as its dependence on components characteristics such as reliability and maintainability. This is particularly of outstanding importance if one is dealing with high risk industrial equipments, where these factors play an important and fundamental role in risk management when safety or huge economic values are in discussion. As availability is a function of reliability, maintainability, and maintenance support activities, the main goal is to improve one or more of these factors. This paper intends to show how maintainability can influence availability and present a methodology to select the most important attributes for maintainability using a partial Multi Criteria Decision Making (pMCDM). Improvements in maintainability can be analyzed assuming it as a probability related with a restore probability density function [g(t)].

Burn wood influence on outdoor air quality in a small village: Foros de Arrão, Portugal

One Plus Sequential Air Sampler—Partisol was placed in a small village (Foros de Arrão) in central Portugal to collect PM10 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter below 10 μm), during the winter period for 3 months (December 2009–March 2010). Particles masses were gravimetrically determined and the filters were analyzed by instrumental neutron activation analysis to assess their chemical composition. The water-soluble ion compositions of the collected particles were determined by Ion-exchange Chromatography. Principal component analysis was applied to the data set of chemical elements and soluble ions to assess the main sources of the air pollutants. The use of both analytical techniques provided information about elemental solubility, such as for potassium, which was important to differentiate sources.

Aplicação de ferramentas de simulação de processos

Este trabalho foi efectuado com o propósito de interpretar, compreender e explicar algumas ferramentas de simulação de processos, em particular o Aspen Energy Analyzer (AEA), o Aspen Economic Evaluation (AEE) e o seu funcionamento integrado com o Aspen Hysys(AH). O AH é uma ferramenta de modelação de processos para a concepção de projectos de engenharia química, o AEA é uma ferramenta de modelação de redes de integração energética. O AEE integrado no AH é uma ferramenta que permite incorporar estudos económicos numa fase preliminar do desenvolvimento de um projecto de engenharia. A abordagem a este trabalho foi efectuada através do estudo de Casos. O Caso I foi baseado na resolução de um problema no AEA através da construção e optimização de uma rede de permutadores de calor. Os Casos II e III foram baseados na construção de um flowsheet de produção de Benzeno e de Cloreto de Vinil, respectivamente, e cada Caso foi dividido em dois cenários diferentes. Para o efeito foram utilizados os softwares AEA para a integração energética dos processos, o AH para construção do fluxograma do processo e o AEE para os estudos económicos dos diferentes cenários. Finalmente, os Casos IV e V dizem respeito à resolução de um problema de integração energética. O Caso IV foi baseado num problema de optimização da rede de permutadores através do aumento da sua área. Já o Caso V foi baseado na informação inicial das correntes do caso anterior e em dois cenários diferentes, nos quais foi estudada a influência dos preços das utilidades na construção da rede de permutadores. A conclusão foi que as ferramentas de modelação, particularmente o AH, o AEA e o AEE são uma mais-valia extraordinária para ajudar o utilizador na tomada de decisões em fases bastante preliminares da engenharia de processos.

Análise de um projecto de investimento imobiliário de habitação: conjunto de moradias geminadas

O presente trabalho refere-se a um projecto real de investimento imobiliário, relativo à construção e comercialização de duas moradias geminadas destinadas a habitação. Este estudo permite ao promotor avaliar o seu interesse económico, caracterizar oportunidades e identificar factores de risco, permitindo uma tomada de decisão baseada em estudos económicos objectivos e fundamentados, e não apenas pela sua intuição. Após a pesquisa sobre o estado de conhecimento deste tema, iniciou-se o estudo do projecto, caracterizando-o numa fase inicial, com a realização de um estudo prévio da sua viabilidade económica, recorrendo a métodos simplificados para a obtenção dos parâmetros de análise necessários, como sejam, os custo do terreno e da construção, a duração da obra, o PVT do imóvel, e a distribuição temporal dos custos e receitas. É então realizada a análise com base em descontos de fluxos de caixa, para determinar a rendibilidade do projecto, através dos parâmetros de decisão VAL e TIR. Concluindo-se que o projecto é economicamente viável, inicia-se a obra e apuram-se os valores reais dos diversos parâmetros de análise, ficando no final com as variáveis estimadas do PVT e do tempo necessário à comercialização do imóvel. É também abordada a importância da gestão coordenação e fiscalização da obra. Com os valores reais obtidos são traçados diversos cenários, analisado o recurso a capital alheio, às variações no PVT e no tempo necessário para a comercialização do imóvel e a possibilidade de arrendamento com posterior venda. A análise do projecto segundo esses cenários, permite obter medidas de rendibilidade e compará-los. É então feita a comparação entre as rendibilidades dos vários cenários e retiradas as conclusões sobre os resultados obtidos. Para melhor compreensão dos resultados, é feita uma abordagem à crise imobiliária sentida em Portugal e à possibilidade do uso da permuta imobiliária para facilitar a realização dos negócios imobiliários. No final, serão realizadas recomendações e propostas de melhoria para estudos que possam ser relevantes para o tema e dar uma possível continuidade a este trabalho.

A hybrid approach to multi-agent decision-making

In the aftermath of a large-scale disaster, agents' decisions derive from self-interested (e.g. survival), common-good (e.g. victims' rescue) and teamwork (e.g. fire extinction) motivations. However, current decision-theoretic models are either purely individual or purely collective and find it difficult to deal with motivational attitudes; on the other hand, mental-state based models find it difficult to deal with uncertainty. We propose a hybrid, CvI-JI, approach that combines: i) collective 'versus' individual (CvI) decisions, founded on the Markov decision process (MDP) quantitative evaluation of joint-actions, and ii)joint-intentions (JI) formulation of teamwork, founded on the belief-desire-intention (BDI) architecture of general mental-state based reasoning. The CvI-JI evaluation explores the performance's improvement

Evaluating Tsunami Impact on the Gulf of Cadiz Coast (Northeast Atlantic).

The Gulf of Cadiz coasts are exposed to tsunamis. Emergency planning tools are now taking into account this fact, especially because a series of historical occurrences were strikingly significant, having left strong evidence behind, in the mareographic records, the geological evidence or simply the memory of the populations. The study area is a strip along the Algarve coast, south Portugal, an area known to have been heavily impacted by the 1 November 1755 event. In this study we use two different tsunami scenarios generated by the rupture of two thrust faults identified in the area, corresponding to 8.1-8.3 magnitude earthquakes. Tsunami propagation and inundation computation is performed using a non-linear shallow water code with bottom friction. Numerical modeling results are presented in terms of flow depth and current velocity with maximum values of 7 m and 8 m/s for inundation depth and flow speed, respectively. These results constitute a valuable tool for local authorities, emergency and decision planners to define the priority zones where tsunami mitigation measures must be implemented and to develop tsunami-resilient communities.

Riscos e incerteza das fontes renováveis na produção de energia elétrica

Dissertação para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de Energia

Reabilitação de um imóvel industrial em Marvila: projeto de investimento

Trabalho de Projeto para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil

Choosing best components for an amputee: a methodology for the best decision-making

The harmony between the stump and the prosthesis is critical to allow it to fulfill its function enabling an efficient gait. A well fitted socket, with an efficient and comfortable suspension, allows the amputee to continue their daily living activities, maintaining the stump functional, making this correlation between socket and suspension very important in the functionality of the prosthesis, mobility and overall satisfaction with the device. Of our knowledge, the quantitative correlation between all of these factors as not yet been assessed. Aim of study: Verify and confirm the process of decision-making for four different trans-tibial prostheses with suspension systems: Hypobaric(A), PIN(B), Classic Suction(C) and Vacuum Active –VASS(D) according data provided by gait efficiency (mlO2/kg/m) imagiology (pistonning) and amputee perception.

Coding mode decision algorithm for binary descriptor coding

In visual sensor networks, local feature descriptors can be computed at the sensing nodes, which work collaboratively on the data obtained to make an efficient visual analysis. In fact, with a minimal amount of computational effort, the detection and extraction of local features, such as binary descriptors, can provide a reliable and compact image representation. In this paper, it is proposed to extract and code binary descriptors to meet the energy and bandwidth constraints at each sensing node. The major contribution is a binary descriptor coding technique that exploits the correlation using two different coding modes: Intra, which exploits the correlation between the elements that compose a descriptor; and Inter, which exploits the correlation between descriptors of the same image. The experimental results show bitrate savings up to 35% without any impact in the performance efficiency of the image retrieval task. © 2014 EURASIP.

Performance comparison of a VDFLL versus VDLL and scalar GNSS receiver architectures in Harsh scenarios

We analyze the advantages and drawbacks of a vector delay/frequency-locked loop (VDFLL) architecture regarding the conventional scalar and the vector delay-locked loop (VDLL) architectures for GNSS receivers in harsh scenarios that include ionospheric scintillation, multipath, and high dynamics motion. The VDFLL is constituted by a bank of code and frequency discriminators feeding a central extended Kaiman filter (EKF) that estimates the receiver's position, velocity, and clock bias. Both code and frequency loops are closed vectorially through the EKF. The VDLL closes the code loop vectorially and the phase loops through individual PLLs while the scalar receiver closes both loops by means of individual independent PLLs and DLLs.

The role of teaching decision analysis for sustainability in engeneering schools

This paper addresses the role that decision analysis plays in helping engineers to gain a greater understanding of the problems they face. The need of structured decision analysis is highlighted as well as the use of multiple criteria decision analysis to tackle sustainability issues with emphasis in the use of MACBETH approach. Some insights from a Portuguese Summer Course on engineering for sustainable development are presented namely the students 'and teacher perceptions about the module of decision analysis for sustainability.

Scheduling of a hydro producer considering head-dependency, price scenarios and risk-aversion

In this paper, a mixed-integer quadratic programming approach is proposed for the short-term hydro scheduling problem, considering head-dependency, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. As new contributions to earlier studies, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios, and risk aversion is also incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through the conditional value-at-risk. Our approach has been applied successfully to solve a case Study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, requiring a negligible computational time.