54 resultados para Return predictability
em Repositório Científico do Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa - Portugal
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The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether companies with a greater commitment to corporate social responsibility (SRI companies) perform differently on the stock market compared to companies that disregard SRI. Over recent years, this relationship has been taken up at both a theoretical and practical level, and has led to extensive scientific research of an empirical nature involving the examination of the relationships existing between the financial and social, environmental and corporate governance performance of a company and the relationship between SRI and investment decisions in the financial market. More specifically, this work provides empirical evidence for the Spanish market as to whether or not belonging to a group of companies the market classes as sustainable results in return premiums that set them apart from companies classed as conventional, and finds no differences in the stock market performance of companies considered to be SRI or conventional.
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This paper analyzes the risk-return trade-off in European equities considering both temporal and cross-sectional dimensions. In our analysis, we introduce not only the market portfolio but also 15 industry portfolios comprising the entire market. Several bivariate GARCH models are estimated to obtain the covariance matrix between excess market returns and the industrial portfolios and the existence of a risk-return trade-off is analyzed through a cross-sectional approach using the information in all portfolios. It is obtained evidence for a positive and significant risk-return trade-off in the European market. This conclusion is robust for different GARCH specifications and is even more evident after controlling for the main financial crisis during the sample period.
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Family firm is a field of growing interest. The aim of this article is to understand whether CEOs identity impacts family firm’s stock returns. From a sample of Portuguese and Spanish family firms findings show that who manages the firms result in significantly different risk exposure. Moreover, we find that the abnormal return found by Fahlenbrach (2009) to founder-controlled firms disappear when we use valueweighted portfolios and include two new factors: market aggregate illiquidity and debt intensity to the four-factor Carhart model. Finally, our results explain why the majority of family firm is controlled by its founder.
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Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras
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Dynamical systems modeling tumor growth have been investigated to determine the dynamics between tumor and healthy cells. Recent theoretical investigations indicate that these interactions may lead to different dynamical outcomes, in particular to homoclinic chaos. In the present study, we analyze both topological and dynamical properties of a recently characterized chaotic attractor governing the dynamics of tumor cells interacting with healthy tissue cells and effector cells of the immune system. By using the theory of symbolic dynamics, we first characterize the topological entropy and the parameter space ordering of kneading sequences from one-dimensional iterated maps identified in the dynamics, focusing on the effects of inactivation interactions between both effector and tumor cells. The previous analyses are complemented with the computation of the spectrum of Lyapunov exponents, the fractal dimension and the predictability of the chaotic attractors. Our results show that the inactivation rate of effector cells by the tumor cells has an important effect on the dynamics of the system. The increase of effector cells inactivation involves an inverse Feigenbaum (i.e. period-halving bifurcation) scenario, which results in the stabilization of the dynamics and in an increase of dynamics predictability. Our analyses also reveal that, at low inactivation rates of effector cells, tumor cells undergo strong, chaotic fluctuations, with the dynamics being highly unpredictable. Our findings are discussed in the context of tumor cells potential viability.
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Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras
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The theory of ecological stoichiometry considers ecological interactions among species with different chemical compositions. Both experimental and theoretical investigations have shown the importance of species composition in the outcome of the population dynamics. A recent study of a theoretical three-species food chain model considering stoichiometry [B. Deng and I. Loladze, Chaos 17, 033108 (2007)] shows that coexistence between two consumers predating on the same prey is possible via chaos. In this work we study the topological and dynamical measures of the chaotic attractors found in such a model under ecological relevant parameters. By using the theory of symbolic dynamics, we first compute the topological entropy associated with unimodal Poincareacute return maps obtained by Deng and Loladze from a dimension reduction. With this measure we numerically prove chaotic competitive coexistence, which is characterized by positive topological entropy and positive Lyapunov exponents, achieved when the first predator reduces its maximum growth rate, as happens at increasing delta(1). However, for higher values of delta(1) the dynamics become again stable due to an asymmetric bubble-like bifurcation scenario. We also show that a decrease in the efficiency of the predator sensitive to prey's quality (increasing parameter zeta) stabilizes the dynamics. Finally, we estimate the fractal dimension of the chaotic attractors for the stoichiometric ecological model.
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O estudo desenvolvido no presente documento teve como alvo um edifício antigo construído entre 1930 e 1940 no concelho de Coruche, com construção característica da sua época. Numa fase inicial analisou-se de que forma se comporta o edifício em termos térmicos e energéticos, com base nas metodologias de cálculo apresentadas pelo regulamento térmico em vigor (RCCTE, 2006), e de seguida foram analisadas várias soluções existentes para a reabilitação térmica e energética do edifício que poderá ser concretizada, essencialmente devido às soluções para isolamento térmico das paredes, pavimentos e cobertura, assim como devido às soluções para vidros e caixilharia dos vãos envidraçados. Numa fase posterior, foi estudada a aplicação isolada das várias soluções de reabilitação consideradas, tendo sido simulada a aplicação de várias espessuras de isolante para as soluções da envolvente opaca e vários tipos de vidro duplo e caixilharia para as soluções da envolvente envidraçada, de forma a perceber-se a implicação que cada uma tem quanto à variação das necessidades energéticas do edifício. Por fim, foram calculados os custos de aplicação das várias soluções estudadas, com auxílio de um software de orçamentação, de forma que estas possam ser comparadas em termos da relação custo/benefício, em que, o benefício de cada solução será a variação provocada nas necessidades energéticas do edifício com aplicação da mesma. Assim, procurará encontrar-se para o edifício em estudo não só as soluções mais vantajosas em termos energéticos mas também as mais rentáveis, e procurará perceber-se se um investimento numa intervenção de reabilitação deste género conduzirá a um período de retorno do investimento reduzido, que possa ser considerado aceitável.
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In this paper is presented a relationship between the synchronization and the topological entropy. We obtain the values for the coupling parameter, in terms of the topological entropy, to achieve synchronization of two unidirectional and bidirectional coupled piecewise linear maps. In addition, we prove a result that relates the synchronizability of two m-modal maps with the synchronizability of two conjugated piecewise linear maps. An application to the unidirectional and bidirectional coupled identical chaotic Duffing equations is given. We discuss the complete synchronization of two identical double-well Duffing oscillators, from the point of view of symbolic dynamics. Working with Poincare cross-sections and the return maps associated, the synchronization of the two oscillators, in terms of the coupling strength, is characterized.
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This paper studies a portfolio choice problem such that the pricing rule may incorporate transaction costs and the risk measure is coherent and expectation bounded. We will prove the necessity of dealing with pricing rules such that there exists an essentially bounded stochastic discount factor, which must be also bounded from below by a strictly positive value. Otherwise good deals will be available to traders, i.e., depending on the selected risk measure, investors can build portfolios whose (risk, return) will be as close as desired to (−infinity, infinity) or (0, infinity). This pathologic property still holds for vector risk measures (i.e., if we minimize a vector valued function whose components are risk measures). It is worthwhile to point out that essentially bounded stochastic discount factors are not usual in financial literature. In particular, the most famous frictionless, complete and arbitrage free pricing models imply the existence of good deals for every coherent and expectation bounded (scalar or vector) measure of risk, and the incorporation of transaction costs will not guarantee the solution of this caveat.
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Recent literature has proved that many classical pricing models (Black and Scholes, Heston, etc.) and risk measures (V aR, CV aR, etc.) may lead to “pathological meaningless situations”, since traders can build sequences of portfolios whose risk leveltends to −infinity and whose expected return tends to +infinity, i.e., (risk = −infinity, return = +infinity). Such a sequence of strategies may be called “good deal”. This paper focuses on the risk measures V aR and CV aR and analyzes this caveat in a discrete time complete pricing model. Under quite general conditions the explicit expression of a good deal is given, and its sensitivity with respect to some possible measurement errors is provided too. We point out that a critical property is the absence of short sales. In such a case we first construct a “shadow riskless asset” (SRA) without short sales and then the good deal is given by borrowing more and more money so as to invest in the SRA. It is also shown that the SRA is interested by itself, even if there are short selling restrictions.
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According to the stock market efficiency theory, it is not possible to consistently beat the market. However, technical analysis is more and more spread as an efficient way to achieve abnormal returns. In fact there is evidence that momentum investing strategies provide abnormal returns in different stock markets, Jegadeesh, N. and Titman, S. (1993), George, T. and Hwang, C. (2004) and Du, D. (2009). In this work we study if like other markets, the Portuguese stock market also allows to obtain abnormal returns, using a strategy that consists in picking stocks according to their past performance. Our work confirms the results of Soares, J. and Serra, A. (2005) and Pereira, P. (2009), showing that an investor can get abnormal returns investing in momentum portfolios. The Portuguese stock market evidences momentum returns in short term, exhibiting reversal in long term.
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Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras
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O presente documento enquadra-se no âmbito do trabalho final do mestrado (TFM) do curso de Engenharia Civil, na área de especialização de Hidráulica, do Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, sob a forma de um projeto na fase de estudo prévio com o título ―Gestão Sustentável da Água no empreendimento turístico Parque de Campismo da Ilha do Pessegueiro situado em Porto Covo - Região de Turismo do Alentejo‖. Este trabalho é constituído essencialmente por 5 partes. Sendo a primeira uma breve introdução às questões a abordar, a segunda corresponde à discrição teórica do uso eficiente da água baseando-se no PNEUA (Programa nacional para o uso eficiente da água). Já a terceira parte é relativa ao atual sistema de utilização da água no Parque de campismo da ilha do pessegueiro (PCIP), sendo a quarta o estudo do desenvolvimento do projecto para a gestão eficiente da água no empreendimento e a quinta parte o estudo de viabilidade económica e financeira a implementar no projecto. Para além da implementação de medidas de poupança são também objetivos principais deste trabalho a reutilização da água através da recolha, o tratamento e armazenamento das águas residuais e aproveitamento das águas pluviais para posterior abastecimento do sistema de utilização em descargas sanitárias, lavagem de pavimentos e regas de espaços verdes. São, portanto, três os subsistemas de gestão eficiente da água que se pretende implementar. Dá-se importância ao estudo de viabilidade económica do projeto, cujo período de retorno do capital investido em capitais próprios e alheios é de seis anos. Este projeto pretende dar apoio técnico ao uso eficiente da água no PCIP, de forma a conseguir por um lado obter vantagens económicas e por outro proteger o ambiente. As vantagens económicas são interessantes para orientar os recursos financeiros para outros investimentos e as questões ambientais são a base de uma campanha, já em curso, para obtenção de certificação energética, em conjunto com outras práticas já em curso, nomeadamente a recolha seletiva de resíduos sólidos para recircular e aproveitamento de energia solar.
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Mestrado em Controlo e Gestão dos Negócios