14 resultados para FINANCIAL HISTORY

em Repositório Científico do Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa - Portugal


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The main purpose of this study is to analyse the changes caused by the global financial crisis on the influence of board characteristics on corporate results, in terms of corporate performance, corporate risk-taking, and earnings management. Sample comprises S&P 500 listed firms during 2002-2008. This study reveals that the environmental conditions call for different behaviour from directors to fulfil their responsibilities and suggests changes in normative and voluntary guidelines for improving good practices in the boardroom.

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Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

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We are concerned with providing more empirical evidence on forecast failure, developing forecast models, and examining the impact of events such as audit reports. A joint consideration of classic financial ratios and relevant external indicators leads us to build a basic prediction model focused in non-financial Galician SMEs. Explanatory variables are relevant financial indicators from the viewpoint of the financial logic and financial failure theory. The paper explores three mathematical models: discriminant analysis, Logit, and linear multivariate regression. We conclude that, even though they both offer high explanatory and predictive abilities, Logit and MDA models should be used and interpreted jointly.

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Trabalho de Projecto de Natureza Científica para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil

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The legacy of nineteenth century social theory followed a “nationalist” model of society, assuming that analysis of social realities depends upon national boundaries, taking the nation-state as the primary unit of analysis, and developing the concept of methodological nationalism. This perspective regarded the nation-state as the natural - and even necessary - form of society in modernity. Thus, the constitution of large cities, at the end of the 19th century, through the intense flows of immigrants coming from diverse political and linguistic communities posed an enormous challenge to all social research. One of the most significant studies responding to this set of issues was The Immigrant Press and its Control, by Robert E. Park, one of the most prominent American sociologists of the first half of the 20th century. The Immigrant Press and its Control was part of a larger project entitled Americanization Studies: The Acculturation of Immigrant Group into American Society, funded by the Carnagie Corporation following World War I, taking as its goal to study the so-called “Americanization methods” during the 1920s. This paper revisits that particular work by Park to reveal how his detailed analysis of the role of the immigrant press overcame the limitations of methodological nationalism. By granting importance to language as a tool uniting each community and by showing how the strength of foreign languages expressed itself through the immigrant press, Park demonstrated that the latter produces a more ambivalent phenomenon than simply the assimilation of immigrants. On the one hand, the immigrant press served as a connecting force, driven by the desire to preserve the mother tongue and culture while at the same time awakening national sentiments that had, until then, remained diffuse. Yet, on the other hand, it facilitated the adjustment of immigrants to the American context. As a result, Park’s work contributes to our understanding of a particular liminal moment inherent within many intercultural contexts, the space between emigrant identity (emphasizing the country of origin) and immigrant identity (emphasizing the newly adopted country). His focus on the role played by media in the socialization of immigrant groups presaged later work on this subject by communication scholars. Focusing attention on Park’s research leads to other studies of the immigrant experience from the same period (e.g., Thomas & Znaniecki, The Polish Peasant in Europe and America), and also to insights on multi-presence and interculturality as significant but often overlooked phenomena in the study of immigrant socialization.

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Nesta tese estudamos os efeitos de contágio financeiro e de memória longa causados pelas crises financeiras de 2008 e 2010 em alguns mercados acionistas internacionais. A tese é composta por três ensaios interligados. No Ensaio 1, recorremos à teoria das cópulas para testar a existência de contágio e revelar os canais “investor induced” de transmissão da crise de 2008 aos mercados da Bélgica, França, Holanda e Portugal (grupo NYSE Euronext). Concluímos que existe contágio nestes mercados, que o canal “portfolio rebalancing” é o mecanismo mais importante de transmissão da crise, e que o fenómeno “flight to quality” está presente nos mercados. No Ensaio 2, usando novamente modelos de cópulas, avaliamos os efeitos de contágio provocados pelo mercado acionista grego nos mercados do grupo NYSE Euronext, no contexto da crise de 2010. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que durante a crise de 2010 apenas o mercado português foi objeto de contágio; além disso, conclui-se que os efeitos de contágio provocados pela crise de 2008 são claramente superiores aos efeitos provocados pela crise de 2010. No Ensaio 3, abordamos o tema da memória longa através do estudo do expoente de Hurst dos mercados acionistas da Bélgica, E.U.A., França, Grécia, Holanda, Japão, Reino Unido e Portugal. Verificamos que as propriedades de memória longa dos mercados foram afetadas pelas crises, especialmente a de 2008 – que aumentou a memória longa dos mercados e tornou-os mais persistentes. Finalmente, usando cópulas mais uma vez, verificamos que as crises provocaram, em geral, um aumento na correlação entre os expoentes de Hurst locais dos mercados foco das crises (E.U.A. e Grécia) e os expoentes de Hurst locais dos outros mercados da amostra, sugerindo que o expoente de Hurst pode ser utilizado para detetar efeitos de contágio financeiro. Em síntese, os resultados desta tese sugerem que comparativamente com períodos de acalmia, os períodos de crises financeiras tendem a provocar ineficiência nos mercados acionistas e a conduzi-los na direção da persistência e do contágio financeiro.

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"The purpose of the XII Iberian-Italian Congress of Financial and Actuarial Mathematics is to provide a meeting point for researchers in Financial Economics from different countries and research backgrounds in universities, government or financial institutions. In fact, the Congress which is currently taking place in Lisbon has been organized to encourage communication and debate among the participants as well as to reinforce the bonds between us.The current edition of the Congress is characterized by the quality and diversity of the papers that have been submitted with special attention to the International Financial Crisis and measures of risk in different financial markets. However, as the Congress Program indicates, there are also parallel sessions about traditional topics in finance such as asset pricing, insurance, corporate finance, etc.Although this Congress has always been organized alternately between Spain and Italy, this year we have the great pleasure of celebrating it in Portugal which will be included as a permanent partner." [prefácio]

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In this work, we present a teaching-learning sequence on colour intended to a pre-service elementary teacher programme informed by History and Philosophy of Science. Working in a socio-constructivist framework, we made an excursion on the history of colour. Our excursion through history of colour, as well as the reported misconception on colour helps us to inform the constructions of the teaching-learning sequence. We apply a questionnaire both before and after each of the two cycles of action-research in order to assess students’ knowledge evolution on colour and to evaluate our teaching-learning sequence. Finally, we present a discussion on the persistence of deep-rooted alternative conceptions.

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The concepts and instruments required for the teaching and learning of geometric optics are introduced in the didactic processwithout a proper didactic transposition. This claim is secured by the ample evidence of both wide- and deep-rooted alternative concepts on the topic. Didactic transposition is a theory that comes from a reflection on the teaching and learning process in mathematics but has been used in other disciplinary fields. It will be used in this work in order to clear up the main obstacles in the teachinglearning process of geometric optics. We proceed to argue that since Newton’s approach to optics, in his Book I of Opticks, is independent of the corpuscular or undulatory nature of light, it is the most suitable for a constructivist learning environment. However, Newton’s theory must be subject to a proper didactic transposition to help overcome the referred alternative concepts. Then is described our didactic transposition in order to create knowledge to be taught using a dialogical process between students’ previous knowledge, history of optics and the desired outcomes on geometrical optics in an elementary pre-service teacher training course. Finally, we use the scheme-facet structure of knowledge both to analyse and discuss our results as well as to illuminate shortcomings that must be addressed in our next stage of the inquiry.