Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

Análise do mercado de serviços de regulação de frequência secundária e terciária no sistema eléctrico português

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo Energia

Verificação da segurança sísmica de um edifício existente em betão armado

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil na Área de Especialização de Estruturas

Projeto de estruturas de um edifício em betão armado com recurso ao programa de cálculo automático ETABS

Trabalho de Projeto para obtenção do grau de mestre em Engenharia Civil

Comparing wind generation profiles: A circular data approach

The importance of wind power energy for energy and environmental policies has been growing in past recent years. However, because of its random nature over time, the wind generation cannot be reliable dispatched and perfectly forecasted, becoming a challenge when integrating this production in power systems. In addition the wind energy has to cope with the diversity of production resulting from alternative wind power profiles located in different regions. In 2012, Portugal presented a cumulative installed capacity distributed over 223 wind farms [1]. In this work the circular data statistical methods are used to analyze and compare alternative spatial wind generation profiles. Variables indicating extreme situations are analyzed. The hour (s) of the day where the farm production attains its maximum daily production is considered. This variable was converted into circular variable, and the use of circular statistics enables to identify the daily hour distribution for different wind production profiles. This methodology was applied to a real case, considering data from the Portuguese power system regarding the year 2012 with a 15-minutes interval. Six geographical locations were considered, representing different wind generation profiles in the Portuguese system.In this work the circular data statistical methods are used to analyze and compare alternative spatial wind generation profiles. Variables indicating extreme situations are analyzed. The hour (s) of the day where the farm production attains its maximum daily production is considered. This variable was converted into circular variable, and the use of circular statistics enables to identify the daily hour distribution for different wind production profiles. This methodology was applied to a real case, considering data from the Portuguese power system regarding the year 2012 with a 15-minutes interval. Six geographical locations were considered, representing different wind generation profiles in the Portuguese system.

A Imagética como estratégia de ensino da Técnica de Dança Clássica com alunos do 3º ano de Dança da Academia de Dança do Vale do Sousa

Relatório Final de Estágio apresentado à Escola Superior de Dança, com vista à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ensino de Dança.

Elaboração e aplicação de um Programa de Treino de Técnica de Pontas para os alunos do 3º ano de Dança, da Academia de Dança do Vale do Sousa, com vista à preparação de Variações de Repertório Clássico

Relatório Final de Estágio apresentado à Escola Superior de Dança, com vista à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ensino de Dança.