Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions

In this work we study the problem of modeling identification of a population employing a discrete dynamic model based on the Richards growth model. The population is subjected to interventions due to consumption, such as hunting or farming animals. The model identification allows us to estimate the probability or the average time for a population number to reach a certain level. The parameter inference for these models are obtained with the use of the likelihood profile technique as developed in this paper. The identification method here developed can be applied to evaluate the productivity of animal husbandry or to evaluate the risk of extinction of autochthon populations. It is applied to data of the Brazilian beef cattle herd population, and the the population number to reach a certain goal level is investigated.

Reduction of Models in the Presence of Nuisance Parameters

In many statistical inference problems, there is interest in estimation of only some elements of the parameter vector that defines the adopted model. In general, such elements are associated to measures of location and the additional terms, known as nuisance parameters, to control the dispersion and asymmetry of the underlying distributions. To estimate all the parameters of the model and to draw inferences only on the parameters of interest. Depending on the adopted model, this procedure can be both algebraically is common and computationally very costly and thus it is convenient to reduce it, so that it depends only on the parameters of interest. This article reviews estimation methods in the presence of nuisance parameters and consider some applications in models recently discussed in the literature.

Self-dual hopfions

We construct static and time-dependent exact soliton solutions with nontrivial Hopf topological charge for a field theory in 3 + 1 dimensions with the target space being the two dimensional sphere S(2). The model considered is a reduction of the so-called extended Skyrme-Faddeev theory by the removal of the quadratic term in derivatives of the fields. The solutions are constructed using an ansatz based on the conformal and target space symmetries. The solutions are said self-dual because they solve first order differential equations which together with some conditions on the coupling constants, imply the second order equations of motion. The solutions belong to a sub-sector of the theory with an infinite number of local conserved currents. The equation for the profile function of the ansatz corresponds to the Bogomolny equation for the sine-Gordon model.

Improved likelihood inference for the shape parameter in Weibull regression

We obtain adjustments to the profile likelihood function in Weibull regression models with and without censoring. Specifically, we consider two different modified profile likelihoods: (i) the one proposed by Cox and Reid [Cox, D.R. and Reid, N., 1987, Parameter orthogonality and approximate conditional inference. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 49, 1-39.], and (ii) an approximation to the one proposed by Barndorff-Nielsen [Barndorff-Nielsen, O.E., 1983, On a formula for the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator. Biometrika, 70, 343-365.], the approximation having been obtained using the results by Fraser and Reid [Fraser, D.A.S. and Reid, N., 1995, Ancillaries and third-order significance. Utilitas Mathematica, 47, 33-53.] and by Fraser et al. [Fraser, D.A.S., Reid, N. and Wu, J., 1999, A simple formula for tail probabilities for frequentist and Bayesian inference. Biometrika, 86, 655-661.]. We focus on point estimation and likelihood ratio tests on the shape parameter in the class of Weibull regression models. We derive some distributional properties of the different maximum likelihood estimators and likelihood ratio tests. The numerical evidence presented in the paper favors the approximation to Barndorff-Nielsen`s adjustment.

Chemical profile of rums as a function of their origin. The use of chemometric techniques for their identification

To identify chemical descriptors to distinguish Cuban from non-Cuban rums, analyses of 44 samples of rum from 15 different countries are described. To provide the chemical descriptors, analyses of the the mineral fraction, phenolic compounds, caramel, alcohols, acetic acid, ethyl acetate, ketones, and aldehydes were carried out. The analytical data were treated through the following chemometric methods: principal component analysis (PCA), partial least square-discriminate analysis (PLS-DA), and linear discriminate analysis (LDA). These analyses indicated 23 analytes as relevant chemical descriptors for the separation of rums into two distinct groups. The possibility of clustering the rum samples investigated through PCA analysis led to an accumulative percentage of 70.4% in the first three principal components, and isoamyl alcohol, n-propyl alcohol, copper, iron, 2-furfuraldehyde (furfuraldehyde), phenylmethanal (benzaldehyde), epicatechin, and vanillin were used as chemical descriptors. By applying the PLS-DA technique to the whole set of analytical data, the following analytes have been selected as descriptors: acetone, sec-butyl alcohol, isobutyl alcohol, ethyl acetate, methanol, isoamyl alcohol, magnesium, sodium, lead, iron, manganese, copper, zinc, 4-hydroxy3,5-dimethoxybenzaldehyde (syringaldehyde), methaldehyde (formaldehyde), 5-hydroxymethyl-2furfuraldehyde (5-HMF), acetalclehyde, 2-furfuraldehyde, 2-butenal (crotonaldehyde), n-pentanal (valeraldehyde), iso-pentanal (isovaleraldehyde), benzaldehyde, 2,3-butanodione monoxime, acetylacetone, epicatechin, and vanillin. By applying the LIDA technique, a model was developed, and the following analytes were selected as descriptors: ethyl acetate, sec-butyl alcohol, n-propyl alcohol, n-butyl alcohol, isoamyl alcohol, isobutyl alcohol, caramel, catechin, vanillin, epicatechin, manganese, acetalclehyde, 4-hydroxy-3-methoxybenzoic acid, 2-butenal, 4-hydroxy-3,5-dimethoxybenzoic acid, cyclopentanone, acetone, lead, zinc, calcium, barium, strontium, and sodium. This model allowed the discrimination of Cuban rums from the others with 88.2% accuracy.

Effect of oat bran on time to exhaustion, glycogen content and serum cytokine profile following exhaustive exercise

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of oat bran supplementation on time to exhaustion, glycogen stores and cytokines in rats submitted to training. The animals were divided into 3 groups: sedentary control group (C), an exercise group that received a control chow (EX) and an exercise group that received a chow supplemented with oat bran (EX-O). Exercised groups were submitted to an eight weeks swimming training protocol. In the last training session, the animals performed exercise to exhaustion, (e.g. incapable to continue the exercise). After the euthanasia of the animals, blood, muscle and hepatic tissue were collected. Plasma cytokines and corticosterone were evaluated. Glycogen concentrations was measured in the soleus and gastrocnemius muscles, and liver. Glycogen synthetase-alpha gene expression was evaluated in the soleus muscle. Statistical analysis was performed using a factorial ANOVA. Time to exhaustion of the EX-O group was 20% higher (515 +/- 3 minutes) when compared with EX group (425 +/- 3 minutes) (p = 0.034). For hepatic glycogen, the EX-O group had a 67% higher concentrations when compared with EX (p = 0.022). In the soleus muscle, EX-O group presented a 59.4% higher glycogen concentrations when compared with EX group (p = 0.021). TNF-alpha was decreased, IL-6, IL-10 and corticosterone increased after exercise, and EX-O presented lower levels of IL-6, IL-10 and corticosterone levels in comparison with EX group. It was concluded that the chow rich in oat bran increase muscle and hepatic glycogen concentrations. The higher glycogen storage may improve endurance performance during training and competitions, and a lower post-exercise inflammatory response can accelerate recovery.

Remote sensing the vertical profile of cloud droplet effective radius, thermodynamic phase, and temperature

Cloud-aerosol interaction is a key issue in the climate system, affecting the water cycle, the weather, and the total energy balance including the spatial and temporal distribution of latent heat release. Information on the vertical distribution of cloud droplet microphysics and thermodynamic phase as a function of temperature or height, can be correlated with details of the aerosol field to provide insight on how these particles are affecting cloud properties and their consequences to cloud lifetime, precipitation, water cycle, and general energy balance. Unfortunately, today's experimental methods still lack the observational tools that can characterize the true evolution of the cloud microphysical, spatial and temporal structure in the cloud droplet scale, and then link these characteristics to environmental factors and properties of the cloud condensation nuclei. Here we propose and demonstrate a new experimental approach (the cloud scanner instrument) that provides the microphysical information missed in current experiments and remote sensing options. Cloud scanner measurements can be performed from aircraft, ground, or satellite by scanning the side of the clouds from the base to the top, providing us with the unique opportunity of obtaining snapshots of the cloud droplet microphysical and thermodynamic states as a function of height and brightness temperature in clouds at several development stages. The brightness temperature profile of the cloud side can be directly associated with the thermodynamic phase of the droplets to provide information on the glaciation temperature as a function of different ambient conditions, aerosol concentration, and type. An aircraft prototype of the cloud scanner was built and flew in a field campaign in Brazil. The CLAIM-3D (3-Dimensional Cloud Aerosol Interaction Mission) satellite concept proposed here combines several techniques to simultaneously measure the vertical profile of cloud microphysics, thermodynamic phase, brightness temperature, and aerosol amount and type in the neighborhood of the clouds. The wide wavelength range, and the use of multi-angle polarization measurements proposed for this mission allow us to estimate the availability and characteristics of aerosol particles acting as cloud condensation nuclei, and their effects on the cloud microphysical structure. These results can provide unprecedented details on the response of cloud droplet microphysics to natural and anthropogenic aerosols in the size scale where the interaction really happens.

Exercise training and caloric restriction prevent reduction in cardiac Ca(2+)-handling protein profile in obese rats

Previous studies show that exercise training and caloric restriction improve cardiac function in obesity. However, the molecular mechanisms underlying this effect on cardiac function remain unknown. Thus, we studied the effect of exercise training and/or caloric restriction on cardiac function and Ca(2+) handling protein expression in obese rats. To accomplish this goal, male rats fed with a high-fat and sucrose diet for 25 weeks were randomly assigned into 4 groups: high-fat and sucrose diet, high-fat and sucrose diet and exercise training, caloric restriction, and exercise training and caloric restriction. An additional lean group was studied. The study was conducted for 10 weeks. Cardiac function was evaluated by echocardiography and Ca(2+) handling protein expression by Western blotting. Our results showed that visceral fat mass, circulating leptin, epinephrine, and norepinephrine levels were higher in rats on the high-fat and sucrose diet compared with the lean rats. Cardiac nitrate levels, reduced/oxidized glutathione, left ventricular fractional shortening, and protein expression of phosphorylated Ser(2808)-ryanodine receptor and Thr(17-)phospholamban were lower in rats on the high-fat and sucrose diet compared with lean rats. Exercise training and/or caloric restriction prevented increases in visceral fat mass, circulating leptin, epinephrine, and norepinephrine levels and prevented reduction in cardiac nitrate levels and reduced: oxidized glutathione ratio. Exercise training and/or caloric restriction prevented reduction in left ventricular fractional shortening and in phosphorylation of the Ser(2808)-ryanodine receptor and Thr(17)-phospholamban. These findings show that exercise training and/or caloric restriction prevent cardiac dysfunction in high-fat and sucrose diet rats, which seems to be attributed to decreased circulating neurohormone levels. In addition, this nonpharmacological paradigm prevents a reduction in the Ser(2808)-ryanodine receptor and Thr(17-)phospholamban phosphorylation and redox status. (Hypertension. 2010;56:629-635.)

Model to predict the chloride penetration in concrete with profile forming peak: verification of its precision

Chloride attack in marine environments or in structures where deicing salts are used will not always show profiles with concentrations that decrease from the external surface to the interior of the concrete. Some profiles show an increase in chloride concentrations from when a peak is formed. This type of profile must be analyzed in a different way from the traditional model of Fick`s second law to generate more precise service life models. A model for forecasting the penetration of chloride ions as a function of time for profiles having formed a peak. To confirm the efficiency of this model, it is necessary to observe the behavior of a chloride profile with peak in a specific structure over a period of time. To achieve this, two chloride profiles with different ages (22 and 27 years) were extracted from the same structure. The profile obtained from the 22-year sample was used to estimate the chloride profile at 27 years using three models: a) the traditional model using Fick`s second law and extrapolating the value of C(S)-external surface chloride concentration; b) the traditional model using Fick`s second law and shifting the x-axis to the peak depth; c) the previously proposed model. The results from these models were compared with the actual profile measured in the 27-year sample and the results were analyzed. The model was presented with good precision for this study of case, requiring to be tested with other structures in use.

Fatty acid profile and qualitative characteristics of meat from zebu steers fed with different oilseeds

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of dietary addition of ground oilseed sources on the quality, fatty acid profile, and CLA content of meat from zebu steers. Thirty-one zebu steers with an initial average age of 23 mo and an initial BW of 365 kg were used in this study. The experimental period was 84 d, which was preceded by an adaption period of 28 d. The diet was provided ad libitum with a forage: concentrate ratio of 40:60. Corn silage was used as the forage source. Four different concentrates were formulated for each treatment: without additional lipids (control) or with ground soybeans (SB), ground cottonseed (CS), or ground linseed (LS). The SB, CS, and LS diets were formulated to have 6.5% ether extract on a total dietary DM basis. The experiment was set up as a completely randomized design. After slaughter, samples were taken from the longissimus thoracis muscle for the measurement of fatty acid concentration and the evaluation of meat quality. The luminosity index was greater in the control and LS diets (P < 0.01). The greatest percentages of myristic acid (C14:0), palmitic acid (C16:0), trans octadecenoic acid (C18:1 trans-10, trans-11, or trans-12), and SFA in the subcutaneous fat were observed in the CS treatment (P < 0.01). Moreover, the least percentages of oleic acid (C18:1 cis-9) and total unsaturated fatty acids in the subcutaneous fat were observed in the CS diet (P < 0.01). The meat linoleic acid and a-linolenic acid percentages were greatest in the SB and LS treatments, respectively (P < 0.001). The unsaturated fatty acid: SFA ratio was smallest for the CS diet (P < 0.01). A gradual increase in oxidation was observed as a function of storage time; however, the diets did not affect the rancidity of the meat (P > 0.05). The fatty acid profile of subcutaneous fat was impaired by the addition of CS. Supplying ground oilseeds did not increase the content of CLA in the meat.

Brazil nut ingestion increased plasma selenium but had minimal effects on lipids, apolipoproteins, and high-density lipoprotein function in human subjects

The Brazil nut (Bertholletia excelsa) of the Amazon region is consumed worldwide. It is rich in both monounsaturated fatty acids and polyunsaturated fatty acids and is known for its high selenium content. This study tested the hypothesis whether the consumption of this nut could affect the plasma lipids and apolipoproteins and some functional properties of the antiatherogenic high-density lipoprotein (HDL). Fifteen normolipidemic subjects aged 27.3 +/- 3.9 years and with body mass index of 23.8 +/- 2.8 kg/m(2) consumed 45 g of Brazil nuts per day during a 15-day period. On days 0 and 15, blood was collected for biochemical analysis, determination of HDL particle size, paraoxonase 1 activity, and lipid transfer from a lipoprotein-like nanoparticle to the HDL fraction. Brazil nut ingestion did not alter HDL, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triacylglycerols, apolipoprotein A-1, or apolipoprotein B concentrations. HDL particle diameter and the activity of antioxidative paraoxonase 1, mostly found in the HDL fraction, Were also unaffected. Supplementation increased the reception of cholesteryl esters (P <.05) by the HDL yet did not alter the reception of phospholipids, free cholesterol, or triacylglycerols. As expected, plasma selenium was significantly increased. However, the consumption of Brazil nuts for short duration by normolipidemic subjects in comparable amounts to those tested for other nuts did not alter serum lipid profile. The only alteration in HDL function was the increase in cholesteryl ester transfer. This latter finding may be beneficial because it would improve the nonatherogenic reverse cholesterol transport pathway. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hormone profile in juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus with previous or current amenorrhea

To identify the underlying mechanism of amenorrhea in juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (JSLE) patients, thirty-five (11.7%) JSLE patients with current or previous amenorrhea were consecutively selected among the 298 post-menarche patients followed in 12 Brazilian pediatric rheumatology centers. Pituitary gonadotrophins [follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) and luteinizing hormone (LH)] and estradiol were evaluated in 32/35 patients, and prolactin and total testosterone in 29/35 patients. Patient`s medical records were carefully reviewed according to demographic, clinical and therapeutic findings. The mean duration of amenorrhea was 7.2 +/- A 3.6 months. Low FSH or LH was observed in 7/32 (22%) JSLE patients and normal FSH or LH in 25 (78%). Remarkably, low levels of FSH or LH were associated with higher frequency of current amenorrhea (57% vs. 0%, P = 0.001), higher median disease activity (SLEDAI) and damage (SLICC/ACR-DI) (18 vs. 4, P = 0.011; 2 vs. 0, P = 0.037, respectively) and higher median current dose of prednisone (60 vs. 10 mg/day, P = 0.0001) compared to normal FSH or LH JSLE patients. None of them had decreased ovarian reserve and premature ovarian failure. Six of 29 (21%) patients had high levels of prolactin, and none had current amenorrhea. No correlations were observed between levels of prolactin and SLEDAI, and levels of prolactin and SLICC/ACR-DI scores (Spearman`s coefficient). We have identified that amenorrhea in JSLE is associated with high dose of corticosteroids indicated for active disease due to hypothalamic-pituitary-ovary axis suppression.

Spirometric Function Improves in the Morbidly Obese After 1-Year Post-surgery

Obesity can negatively affect pulmonary function tests, with or without clinical symptoms, but the impact of bariatric weight loss is still debated. Aiming to document such profile in a consecutive homogeneous population, a prospective cohort study was undertaken. Sixty-one patients (100% females, age 40 +/- 8 years, BMI 49 +/- 5 kg/m(2) and without respiratory disease) were enrolled. Spirometric analysis was carried out to compare preoperative respiratory pattern with outcome after 6 and 12 months. Variables included vital capacity (VC), expiratory reserve volume (ERV), forced expiratory volume (1 s) (FEV1), FEV1/FVC ratio and maximum voluntary ventilation (MVV). Correlation of results with weight loss was examined. The following initial variables exhibited significant difference when compared to the 12-month postoperative control: FVC (P = 0.0308), FEV1/FVC (P = 0.1998), MVV (P = 0.0004) and ERV (P = 0.2124). Recovery of FVC and FEV1/FVC occurred earlier by 6 months. The most seriously depressed preoperative finding was ERV, which even after 1 year still remained inadequate. (1) Pulmonary limitations were diagnosed in approximately one third of the population. (2) Changes were demonstrated for FVC, FEV1/FVC, ERV and MVV. (3) FEV1 and FEV1/FVC were acceptable due to the absence of an obstructive pattern. (4) Two variables increased by 6 months (FEV1/FVC and ERV), whereas recovery for others was confirmed after 1 year. (5) The only exception was ERV which continued below the acceptable range.

Impact of pressure profile and duration of recruitment maneuvers on morphofunctional and biochemical variables in experimental lung injury

Objective: To investigate the effects of the rate of airway pressure increase and duration of recruitment maneuvers on lung function and activation of inflammation, fibrogenesis, and apoptosis in experimental acute lung injury. Design: Prospective, randomized, controlled experimental study. Setting: University research laboratory. Subjects: Thirty-five Wistar rats submitted to acute lung injury induced by cecal ligation and puncture. Interventions: After 48 hrs, animals were randomly distributed into five groups (seven animals each): 1) nonrecruited (NR); 2) recruitment maneuvers (RMs) with continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) for 15 secs (CPAP15); 3) RMs with CPAP for 30 secs (CPAP30); 4) RMs with stepwise increase in airway pressure (STEP) to targeted maximum within 15 secs (STEP15); and 5) RMs with STEP within 30 secs (STEP30). To perform STEP RMs, the ventilator was switched to a CPAP mode and positive end-expiratory pressure level was increased stepwise. At each step, airway pressure was held constant. RMs were targeted to 30 cm H(2)O. Animals were then ventilated for 1 hr with tidal volume of 6 mL/kg and positive end-expiratory pressure of 5 cm H(2)O. Measurements and Main Results: Blood gases, lung mechanics, histology (light and electronic microscopy), interleukin-6, caspase 3, and type 3 procollagen mRNA expressions in lung tissue. All RMs improved oxygenation and lung static elastance and reduced alveolar collapse compared to NR. STEP30 resulted in optimal performance, with: 1) improved lung static elastance vs. NR, CPAP15, and STEP15; 2) reduced alveolar-capillary membrane detachment and type 2 epithelial and endothelial cell injury scores vs. CPAP15 (p < .05); and 3) reduced gene expression of interleukin-6, type 3 procollagen, and caspase 3 in lung tissue vs. other RMs. Conclusions: Longer-duration RMs with slower airway pressure increase efficiently improved lung function, while minimizing the biological impact on lungs. (Crit Care Med 2011; 39:1074-1081)

Neuropsychological Profile of Brazilian Older Adults with Heterogeneous Educational Backgrounds

Education significantly impacts cognitive performance of older adults even in the absence of dementia. Some cognitive tests seem less vulnerable to the influence of education and thus may be more suitable for cognitive assessment of older adults with heterogeneous backgrounds. The objective of this study was to investigate which tests in a cognitive battery were less influenced by educational levels in a sample of cognitively unimpaired older Brazilians. In addition, we evaluated the impact of very high educational levels on cognitive performance. The cognitive battery consisted of the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE), Cambridge Cognitive Test (CAMCOG), Clock Drawing Test, Short Cognitive Performance Test (SKT), Rivermead Behavioural Memory Test (RBMT), Fuld Object Memory Evaluation (FOME), Verbal Fluency Test (VF) fruit category, Trail Making Test A and B, WAIS-R Vocabulary, and Block Design. Education did not exert a significant influence on the RBMT, FOME, and VF (p < .05). Subjects with very high educational levels had similar performance on the latter tests when compared with those with intermediate and low levels of education. In conclusion, the RBMT, FOME, and VF fruit category seem to be appropriate tools for the assessment of cognitive function in elderly Brazilians with varying degrees of educational attainment.