Bayesian nonlinear regression models with scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions: Estimation and case influence diagnostics

The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian analysis for nonlinear regression models under scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions. This novel class of models provides a useful generalization of the symmetrical nonlinear regression models since the error distributions cover both skewness and heavy-tailed distributions such as the skew-t, skew-slash and the skew-contaminated normal distributions. The main advantage of these class of distributions is that they have a nice hierarchical representation that allows the implementation of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples from the joint posterior distribution. In order to examine the robust aspects of this flexible class, against outlying and influential observations, we present a Bayesian case deletion influence diagnostics based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Further, some discussions on the model selection criteria are given. The newly developed procedures are illustrated considering two simulations study, and a real data previously analyzed under normal and skew-normal nonlinear regression models. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust inference in an heteroscedastic measurement error model

In this paper we deal with robust inference in heteroscedastic measurement error models Rather than the normal distribution we postulate a Student t distribution for the observed variables Maximum likelihood estimates are computed numerically Consistent estimation of the asymptotic covariance matrices of the maximum likelihood and generalized least squares estimators is also discussed Three test statistics are proposed for testing hypotheses of interest with the asymptotic chi-square distribution which guarantees correct asymptotic significance levels Results of simulations and an application to a real data set are also reported (C) 2009 The Korean Statistical Society Published by Elsevier B V All rights reserved

A new class of survival regression models with heavy-tailed errors: robustness and diagnostics

Birnbaum-Saunders models have largely been applied in material fatigue studies and reliability analyses to relate the total time until failure with some type of cumulative damage. In many problems related to the medical field, such as chronic cardiac diseases and different types of cancer, a cumulative damage caused by several risk factors might cause some degradation that leads to a fatigue process. In these cases, BS models can be suitable for describing the propagation lifetime. However, since the cumulative damage is assumed to be normally distributed in the BS distribution, the parameter estimates from this model can be sensitive to outlying observations. In order to attenuate this influence, we present in this paper BS models, in which a Student-t distribution is assumed to explain the cumulative damage. In particular, we show that the maximum likelihood estimates of the Student-t log-BS models attribute smaller weights to outlying observations, which produce robust parameter estimates. Also, some inferential results are presented. In addition, based on local influence and deviance component and martingale-type residuals, a diagnostics analysis is derived. Finally, a motivating example from the medical field is analyzed using log-BS regression models. Since the parameter estimates appear to be very sensitive to outlying and influential observations, the Student-t log-BS regression model should attenuate such influences. The model checking methodologies developed in this paper are used to compare the fitted models.

A robust Bayesian approach to null intercept measurement error model with application to dental data

Measurement error models often arise in epidemiological and clinical research. Usually, in this set up it is assumed that the latent variable has a normal distribution. However, the normality assumption may not be always correct. Skew-normal/independent distribution is a class of asymmetric thick-tailed distributions which includes the Skew-normal distribution as a special case. In this paper, we explore the use of skew-normal/independent distribution as a robust alternative to null intercept measurement error model under a Bayesian paradigm. We assume that the random errors and the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows jointly a skew-normal/independent distribution, providing an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of symmetric normal distribution in this type of model. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the skew-normal distribution, the skew-t distributions, the skew-slash distributions and the skew contaminated normal distributions. The methods developed is illustrated using a real data set from a dental clinical trial. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

O risco espacial e fatores associados ao edentulismo em idosos em município do Sudeste do Brasil

Objetivou-se identificar fatores associados ao edentulismo e o seu risco espacial em idosos. Foi realizado um estudo transversal em uma amostra de 372 indivíduos de 60 anos e mais, no Município de Botucatu, São Paulo, Brasil, em 2005. Razões de prevalência brutas e ajustadas foram estimadas por meio de regressão de Poisson, com estimativa robusta da variância e procedimentos de modelagem hierárquica. A análise espacial foi realizada por estimativas de densidade de Kernel. A prevalência de edentulismo foi de 63,17%. Os fatores sociodemográficos associados ao edentulismo foram a baixa escolaridade, o aumento do número de pessoas por cômodo, não possuir automóvel e idade mais avançada, presença de comorbidades, ausência de um cirurgião-dentista regular e ter realizado a última consulta há três anos ou mais. A análise espacial mostrou maior risco nas áreas periféricas. Obteve-se uma melhor compreensão da perda dentária entre os idosos, subsidiando o planejamento de ações em saúde coletiva.

Reproductive behavior, development and eye regression in the cave armored catfish, Ancistrus cryptophthalmus Reis, 1987 (Siluriformes: Loricariidae), breed in laboratory

The troglobitic armored catfish, Ancistrus cryptophthalmus (Loricariidae, Ancistrinae) is known from four caves in the São Domingos karst area, upper rio Tocantins basin, Central Brazil. These populations differ in general body shape and degree of reduction of eyes and of pigmentation. The small Passa Três population (around 1,000 individuals) presents the most reduced eyes, which are not externally visible in adults. A small group of Passa Três catfish, one male and three females, reproduced spontaneously thrice in laboratory, at the end of summertime in 2000, 2003 and 2004. Herein we describe the reproductive behavior during the 2003 event, as well as the early development of the 2003 and 2004 offsprings, with focus on body growth and ontogenetic regression of eyes. The parental care by the male, which includes defense of the rock shelter where the egg clutch is laid, cleaning and oxygenation of eggs, is typical of many loricariids. On the other hand, the slow development, including delayed eye degeneration, low body growth rates and high estimated longevity (15 years or more) are characteristic of precocial, or K-selected, life cycles. In the absence of comparable data for close epigean relatives (Ancistrus spp.), it is not possible to establish whether these features are an autapomorphic specialization of the troglobitic A. cryptophthalmus or a plesiomorphic trait already present in the epigean ancestor, possibly favoring the adoption of the life in the food-poor cave environment. We briefly discuss the current hypotheses on eye regression in troglobitic vertebrates.

Práticas de alimentação complementar no primeiro ano de vida e fatores associados

OBJETIVO: Investigar a prevalência de consumo de alimentos complementares e os fatores associados à alimentação complementar oportuna em menores de um ano. MÉTODOS: Participaram do estudo 1 176 crianças, durante a Campanha Nacional de Vacinação de 2003, em São Bernardo do Campo (SP), cujos acompanhantes responderam questionário que incluiu questões sobre a alimentação da criança nas 24 horas precedentes. A estimativa da prevalência de consumo dos alimentos complementares foi realizada por um modelo de regressão logística ajustado por idade; as medianas de introdução de alimentos por análise de sobrevida e os fatores associados à alimentação complementar oportuna por regressão de Poisson com ajuste robusto de variância e seleção hierarquizada de variáveis. RESULTADOS: Observou-se introdução precoce de alimentos complementares: no quarto mês, cerca de um terço das crianças recebiam suco de fruta e um quarto das crianças recebiam mingau, fruta ou sopa, ao passo que a probabilidade de consumir a comida da família aos oito meses foi baixa (48%). A mediana de idade para o consumo de frutas foi de 266 dias (IC95% 256-275), de papa de legumes foi 258 dias (IC95% 250-264) e comida da família, 292 dias (IC 95% 287-303). Os fatores associados ao consumo de alimentos sólidos antes dos seis meses de idade foram: sistema de assistência à saúde; idade materna; trabalho materno e uso de chupeta. CONCLUSÃO: O consumo precoce de alimentos sólidos, um risco potencial para a saúde infantil e para o desenvolvimento de doenças crônicas na idade adulta, evidenciam a necessidade de ações programáticas para reversão deste quadro.

Contraceptive use and associated factors among adolescents on Santiago Island - Cape Verde - Western Africa

OBJECTIVE: to estimate the prevalence of contraceptive use and associated factors among adolescents attending public schools on Santiago Island, Cape Verde. METHODS: a cross-sectional study was carried out with 368 sexually active adolescents aged 13-17years attending eight public elementary and high schools, randomly selected, on Santiago Island, Cape Verde, between January and March 2007. Poisson regression with robust variance was used for the multiple analysis of risk factors, at a 5% level of significance. RESULTS: among 368 adolescents, 69.3% reported having used a contraceptive method during the last act of sexual intercourse. The most frequently used method were condom (94.9%) and pill (26.4%). Factors significantly and positively associated with contraceptive use were: living in the capital (PR=1.23; CI95%: 1.07; 1.39); having dated and had sexual intercourse (PR =1.53; CI95%: 1.14;2.06); and having more than nine years of schooling (PR=1.19; CI95%: 1.02; 1.38). CONCLUSIONS: more educated adolescents who studied in Praia (the capital city) and were dating at the time of the study were more likely to use contraception. The high prevalence of condom use and the association between contraception use and years of schooling among adolescents may indicate that sexual and reproductive health policies have produced positive outcomes that may account for the decrease in HIV infection.

Acurácia, precisão e robustez das estimativas da digestibilidade aparente da matéria seca determinada com o uso de indicadores em ovinos

O objetivo foi avaliar a acurácia, precisão e robustez das estimativas da digestibilidade aparente da matéria seca obtidas utilizando-se como indicadores fibra em detergente ácido indigestível (FDAi), fibra em detergente neutro (FDNi) indigestível, lignina em detergente ácido (LDA), LDA indigestível (LDAi) e óxido crômico em comparação ao método de coleta total de fezes. Dezoito ovinos (56,5 ± 4,6 kg PV) foram designados aleatoriamente a dietas compostas de 25, 50 ou 75% de concentrado e feno de Coast cross por 25 dias. As fezes foram coletadas por cinco dias para determinação da digestibilidade aparente da MS. As amostras de alimentos e fezes foram incubadas no rúmen de três bovinos por 144 horas, para obtenção das frações indigestíveis. Óxido crômico foi administrado a 4,0 g/animal/dia. A acurácia foi avaliada pela comparação do viés médio (DAMS predito - DAMS observado) entre os indicadores; a precisão, por meio da raiz quadrada do erro de predição e do erro residual; e a robustez, pelo estudo da regressão entre o viés e o consumo de matéria seca, o nível de concentrado e o peso vivo. A recuperação fecal e a acurácia das estimativas da digestibilidade aparente da MS foram maiores para FDAi, seguida pela FDNi, LDAi, pelo óxido crômico e depois pela lignina em detergente ácido. O viés linear foi significativo apenas para FDAi, FDNi e LDAi. O uso de óxido crômico permitiu estimativas mais precisas da digestibilidade aparente da MS. Todos os indicadores foram robustos quanto à variação no consumo de matéria seca e apenas LDAi e óxido crômico foram robustos quanto aos níveis de concentrado na dieta. O óxido crômico não foi robusto quando houve variação no peso vivo animal. Assim, a FDAi é o indicador mais recomendado na estimativa da digestibilidade aparente da MS em ovinos quando o objetivo é comparar aos dados da literatura, enquanto o óxido crômico é mais recomendado quando o objetivo é comparar tratamentos dentro de um mesmo experimento.

Retardo estatural em menores de cinco anos: um estudo "baseline"

OBJETIVO: Descrever a prevalência e analisar fatores associados ao retardo estatural em menores de cinco anos. MÉTODOS: Estudo “baseline”, que analisou 2.040 menores de cinco anos, verificando possíveis associações entre o retardo estatural (índice altura/idade ≤ 2 escores Z) e variáveis hierarquizadas em seis blocos: socioeconômicas, do domicílio, do saneamento, maternas, biológicas e de acesso aos serviços de saúde. A análise multivariada foi realizada por regressão de Poisson, com opção de erro padrão robusto, obtendo-se as razões de prevalência ajustadas, com IC 95por cento e respectivos valores de significância. RESULTADOS: Entre as variáveis não dicotômicas, houve associação positiva com tipo de teto e número de moradores por cômodo e associação negativa com renda, escolaridade da mãe e peso ao nascer. A análise ajustada indicou ainda como variáveis significantes: abastecimento de água, visita do agente comunitário de saúde, local do parto, internação por diarréia e internação por pneumonia. CONCLUSÃO: Os fatores identificados como de risco para o retardo estatural configuram a multicausalidade do problema, implicando na necessidade de intervenções multisetoriais e multiníveis para o seu controle

Multi-trait and random regression mature weight heritability and breeding value estimates in Nelore cattle

Mature weight breeding values were estimated using a multi-trait animal model (MM) and a random regression animal model (RRM). Data consisted of 82 064 weight records from 8 145 animals, recorded from birth to eight years of age. Weights at standard ages were considered in the MM. All models included contemporary groups as fixed effects, and age of dam (linear and quadratic effects) and animal age as covariates. In the RRM, mean trends were modelled through a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of animal age and genetic maternal and direct and maternal permanent environmental effects were also included as random. Legendre polynomials of orders 4, 3, 6 and 3 were used for animal and maternal genetic and permanent environmental effects, respectively, considering five classes of residual variances. Mature weight (five years) direct heritability estimates were 0.35 (MM) and 0.38 (RRM). Rank correlation between sires' breeding values estimated by MM and RRM was 0.82. However, selecting the top 2% (12) or 10% (62) of the young sires based on the MM predicted breeding values, respectively 71% and 80% of the same sires would be selected if RRM estimates were used instead. The RRM modelled the changes in the (co) variances with age adequately and larger breeding value accuracies can be expected using this model.

Robust relations between CCN and the vertical evolution of cloud drop size distribution in deep convective clouds

In-situ measurements in convective clouds (up to the freezing level) over the Amazon basin show that smoke from deforestation fires prevents clouds from precipitating until they acquire a vertical development of at least 4 km, compared to only 1-2 km in clean clouds. The average cloud depth required for the onset of warm rain increased by similar to 350 m for each additional 100 cloud condensation nuclei per cm(3) at a super-saturation of 0.5% (CCN0.5%). In polluted clouds, the diameter of modal liquid water content grows much slower with cloud depth (at least by a factor of similar to 2), due to the large number of droplets that compete for available water and to the suppressed coalescence processes. Contrary to what other studies have suggested, we did not observe this effect to reach saturation at 3000 or more accumulation mode particles per cm(3). The CCN0.5% concentration was found to be a very good predictor for the cloud depth required for the onset of warm precipitation and other microphysical factors, leaving only a secondary role for the updraft velocities in determining the cloud drop size distributions. The effective radius of the cloud droplets (r(e)) was found to be a quite robust parameter for a given environment and cloud depth, showing only a small effect of partial droplet evaporation from the cloud's mixing with its drier environment. This supports one of the basic assumptions of satellite analysis of cloud microphysical processes: the ability to look at different cloud top heights in the same region and regard their r(e) as if they had been measured inside one well developed cloud. The dependence of r(e) on the adiabatic fraction decreased higher in the clouds, especially for cleaner conditions, and disappeared at r(e)>=similar to 10 mu m. We propose that droplet coalescence, which is at its peak when warm rain is formed in the cloud at r(e)=similar to 10 mu m, continues to be significant during the cloud's mixing with the entrained air, cancelling out the decrease in r(e) due to evaporation.

Comparison of univariate and multivariate calibration for the determination of micronutrients in pellets of plant materials by laser induced breakdown spectrometry

The application of laser induced breakdown spectrometry (LIBS) aiming the direct analysis of plant materials is a great challenge that still needs efforts for its development and validation. In this way, a series of experimental approaches has been carried out in order to show that LIBS can be used as an alternative method to wet acid digestions based methods for analysis of agricultural and environmental samples. The large amount of information provided by LIBS spectra for these complex samples increases the difficulties for selecting the most appropriated wavelengths for each analyte. Some applications have suggested that improvements in both accuracy and precision can be achieved by the application of multivariate calibration in LIBS data when compared to the univariate regression developed with line emission intensities. In the present work, the performance of univariate and multivariate calibration, based on partial least squares regression (PLSR), was compared for analysis of pellets of plant materials made from an appropriate mixture of cryogenically ground samples with cellulose as the binding agent. The development of a specific PLSR model for each analyte and the selection of spectral regions containing only lines of the analyte of interest were the best conditions for the analysis. In this particular application, these models showed a similar performance. but PLSR seemed to be more robust due to a lower occurrence of outliers in comparison to the univariate method. Data suggests that efforts dealing with sample presentation and fitness of standards for LIBS analysis must be done in order to fulfill the boundary conditions for matrix independent development and validation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust STATCOM control for the stabilisation of fixed-speed wind turbines during low voltages

This paper presents a robust voltage control scheme for fixed-speed wind generators using a static synchronous compensator (STATCOM) controller. To enable a linear and robust control framework with structured uncertainty, the overall system is represented by a linear part plus a nonlinear part that covers an operating range of interest required to ensure stability during severe low voltages. The proposed methodology is flexible and readily applicable to larger wind farms of different configurations. The performance of the control strategy is demonstrated on a two area test system. Large disturbance simulations demonstrate that the proposed controller enhances voltage stability as well as transient stability of induction generators during low voltage ride through (LVRT) transients and thus enhances the LVRT capability. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust state prediction for descriptor systems

This paper deals with the problem of state prediction for descriptor systems subject to bounded uncertainties. The problem is stated in terms of the optimization of an appropriate quadratic functional. This functional is well suited to derive not only the robust predictor for descriptor systems but also that for usual state-space systems. Numerical examples are included in order to demonstrate the performance of this new filter. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.