Small-Sample Corrections for Score Tests in Birnbaum-Saunders Regressions

In this article, we deal with the issue of performing accurate small-sample inference in the Birnbaum-Saunders regression model, which can be useful for modeling lifetime or reliability data. We derive a Bartlett-type correction for the score test and numerically compare the corrected test with the usual score test and some other competitors.

Improved likelihood inference in Birnbaum-Saunders regressions

The Birnbaum-Saunders regression model is commonly used in reliability studies. We address the issue of performing inference in this class of models when the number of observations is small. Our simulation results suggest that the likelihood ratio test tends to be liberal when the sample size is small. We obtain a correction factor which reduces the size distortion of the test. Also, we consider a parametric bootstrap scheme to obtain improved critical values and improved p-values for the likelihood ratio test. The numerical results show that the modified tests are more reliable in finite samples than the usual likelihood ratio test. We also present an empirical application. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Downward longwave radiation estimates for clear and all-sky conditions in the Sertozinho region of So Paulo, Brazil

The accurate estimate of the surface longwave fluxes contribution is important for the calculation of the surface radiation budget, which in turn controls all the components of the surface energy budget, such as evaporation and the sensible heat fluxes. This study evaluates the performance of the various downward longwave radiation parameterizations for clear and all-sky days applied to the Sertozinho region in So Paulo, Brazil. Equations have been adjusted to the observations of longwave radiation. The adjusted equations were evaluated for every hour throughout the day and the results showed good fits for most of the day, except near dawn and sunset, followed by nighttime. The seasonal variation was studied by comparing the dry period against the rainy period in the dataset. The least square linear regressions resulted in coefficients equal to the coefficients found for the complete period, both in the dry period and in the rainy period. It is expected that the best fit equation to the observed data for this site be used to produce estimates in other regions of the State of So Paulo, where such information is not available.

Effects of detectability on estimates of geographic range size in bignonieae

Extinction risk has not been evaluated for 96% of all described plant species. Given that the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation proposes preliminary conservation assessments of all described plant species by 2010, herbarium specimens (i.e., primary occurrence data) are increasingly being used to infer threat components from estimates of geographic range size. Nevertheless, estimates of range size based on herbarium data may be inaccurate due to collection bias associated with interspecific variation in detectability. We used data on 377 species of Bignonieae to test the hypothesis that there is a positive relationship between detectability and estimates of geographic range size derived from herbarium specimens. This relationship is expected if the proportion of the true geographic range size of a species that is documented by herbarium specimens is given by the product of the true geographic range size and the detectability of the species, assuming no relationship between true geographic range size and detectability. We developed 4 measures of detectability that can be estimated from herbarium data and examined the relationship between detectability and 2 types of estimates of geographic range size: area of occupancy and extent of occurrence. Our results from regressing estimates of extent of occurrence and area of occupancy on detectability across genera provided no support for this hypothesis. The same was true for regressions of estimated extent of occurrence on detectability across species within genera. Nevertheless, regressions of estimated area of occupancy on detectability across species within genera provided partial support for our hypothesis. We considered 3 possible explanations for this mixed outcome: violation of the assumption of no relationship between true geographic range size and detectability; the relationships between estimated geographic range size and detectability may be an artifact of a negative relationship between estimated area of occupancy and the sampling variance of detectability; detectability may have had 2 opposite effects on estimated species range sizes: one determines the proportion of the true range of a species documented by herbarium specimens and the other determines the distribution of true range size for the species actually observed with herbarium data. Our findings should help improve understanding of the potential biases incurred with the use of herbarium data.

Nutrition in Transition: Dietary Patterns of Rural Amazonian Women During a Period of Economic Change

Objectives: The goal of this study was to understand the relationship between economic change (wage labor, retirement, and the Bolsa Familia program) and dietary patterns in the rural Amazon and to determine the extent to which these changes followed the pattern of the nutrition transition. Methods: The study was longitudinal. The weighed-inventory method and economic interviews were used to collect data on dietary intake and household economics in a sample of 30 and 52 women in 2002 and 2009, respectively. Twenty of the women participated in both years and make-up the longitudinal sub-sample. Comparative statistics were used to identify changes in dietary patterns over time and multiple linear regressions were used to explore the relationship between economics, subsistence strategies, and diet. Results: There was a significant decline in kcal (P < 0.01) and carbohydrate (P < 0.01) but no change in protein intake over time in both the larger and smaller, longitudinal subsample. The percent of energy, carbohydrate, protein, and fat purchased increased in the larger and longitudinal samples (P <= 0.02) and there was an increase in refined carbohydrate and processed, fatty-meat consumption over time. The abandonment of manioc gardens was associated with increased dependence on purchased food (P = 0.03) while receipt of the Bolsa Familia was associated with increased protein intake and adequacy (P = 0.02). Conclusions: The dietary changes observed are only in partial agreement with predictions of the nutrition transition literature. The relationship between the economic and diet changes was shaped by the local context which should be considered when implementing CCT programs, like the Bolsa Familia. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 23:458-469, 2011. (C) 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Time-lag in biological responses to landscape changes in a highly dynamic Atlantic forest region

Time-lagged responses of biological variables to landscape modifications are widely recognized, but rarely considered in ecological studies. In order to test for the existence of time-lags in the response of trees, small mammals, birds and frogs to changes in fragment area and connectivity, we studied a fragmented and highly dynamic landscape in the Atlantic forest region. We also investigated the biological correlates associated with differential responses among taxonomic groups. Species richness and abundance for four taxonomic groups were measured in 21 secondary forest fragments during the same period (2000-2002), following a standardized protocol. Data analyses were based on power regressions and model selection procedures. The model inputs included present (2000) and past (1962, 1981) fragment areas and connectivity, as well as observed changes in these parameters. Although past landscape structure was particularly relevant for trees, all taxonomic groups (except small mammals) were affected by landscape dynamics, exhibiting a time-lagged response. Furthermore, fragment area was more important for species groups with lower dispersal capacity, while species with higher dispersal ability had stronger responses to connectivity measures. Although these secondary forest fragments still maintain a large fraction of their original biodiversity, the delay in biological response combined with high rates of deforestation and fast forest regeneration imply in a reduction in the average age of the forest. This also indicates that future species losses are likely, especially those that are more strictly-forest dwellers. Conservation actions should be implemented to reduce species extinction, to maintain old-growth forests and to favour the regeneration process. Our results demonstrate that landscape history can strongly affect the present distribution pattern of species in fragmented landscapes, and should be considered in conservation planning. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Birnbaum-Saunders nonlinear regression models

We introduce, for the first time, a new class of Birnbaum-Saunders nonlinear regression models potentially useful in lifetime data analysis. The class generalizes the regression model described by Rieck and Nedelman [Rieck, J.R., Nedelman, J.R., 1991. A log-linear model for the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution. Technometrics 33, 51-60]. We discuss maximum-likelihood estimation for the parameters of the model, and derive closed-form expressions for the second-order biases of these estimates. Our formulae are easily computed as ordinary linear regressions and are then used to define bias corrected maximum-likelihood estimates. Some simulation results show that the bias correction scheme yields nearly unbiased estimates without increasing the mean squared errors. Two empirical applications are analysed and discussed. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bias correction in a multivariate normal regression model with general parameterization

This paper derives the second-order biases Of maximum likelihood estimates from a multivariate normal model where the mean vector and the covariance matrix have parameters in common. We show that the second order bias can always be obtained by means of ordinary weighted least-squares regressions. We conduct simulation studies which indicate that the bias correction scheme yields nearly unbiased estimators. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determination of the susceptibility of Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus (Acari: Ixodidae) to ivermectin and fipronil by Larval Immersion Test (LIT) in Uruguay

Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus is an important cattle pest in Uruguay, and the law regulates its control. It is resistant to organophosphates, synthetic pyrethroids and, as recently discovered, to fipronil. Resistance to macrocyclic lactones (MLs) and amitraz have not been documented; however, veterinarians and farmers have reported treatment failures. The objective of the present work was to study the susceptibility of cattle tick strains from different Uruguayan counties to ivermectin (IVM) and fipronil by using the Larval Immersion Test (LIT). The Mozo strain was used as the susceptible reference strain. From 2007 to 2009, twenty-eight tick populations were collected from different cattle farms with and without history of IVM or fipronil use. A probit analysis estimated dose-mortality regressions, lethal concentrations (LC), and confidence intervals. The resistance ratio (RR) was determined at the LC(50) and LC(90) estimates. To classify a tick population in relation to resistance, three categories based on a statistical analysis of LC and RR between field populations and Mozo strains were defined: susceptible (no differences), incipient resistance (differences and RR(50) < 2) and resistant (differences and RR(50) >= 2). Eighteen field populations were tested with IVM and five of them presented a RR(50) range between 1.35 and 1.98 and the LC(50/90), which is statistically different from the Mozo strain (incipient resistance). However, the RR(90) increases >= 2 in four of the populations, confirming that tick resistance to IVM is emergent. The low RR values obtained could be a result of a low frequency of treatments with IVM. Twenty-seven tick populations were tested with fipronil and six were diagnosed as resistant according to the LIT. Cross-resistance was not observed between fipronil and IVM on these tick populations. The current study presents different R. (B.) microplus populations with an incipient resistance to IVM, and indicates that the fipronil tick resistance is restricted to certain areas in Uruguay. (c) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.