89 resultados para Prediction error method
em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo (BDPI/USP)
Resumo:
P>Soil bulk density values are needed to convert organic carbon content to mass of organic carbon per unit area. However, field sampling and measurement of soil bulk density are labour-intensive, costly and tedious. Near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) is a physically non-destructive, rapid, reproducible and low-cost method that characterizes materials according to their reflectance in the near-infrared spectral region. The aim of this paper was to investigate the ability of NIRS to predict soil bulk density and to compare its performance with published pedotransfer functions. The study was carried out on a dataset of 1184 soil samples originating from a reforestation area in the Brazilian Amazon basin, and conventional soil bulk density values were obtained with metallic ""core cylinders"". The results indicate that the modified partial least squares regression used on spectral data is an alternative method for soil bulk density predictions to the published pedotransfer functions tested in this study. The NIRS method presented the closest-to-zero accuracy error (-0.002 g cm-3) and the lowest prediction error (0.13 g cm-3) and the coefficient of variation of the validation sets ranged from 8.1 to 8.9% of the mean reference values. Nevertheless, further research is required to assess the limits and specificities of the NIRS method, but it may have advantages for soil bulk density predictions, especially in environments such as the Amazon forest.
Resumo:
Bioelectrical impedance vector analysis (BIVA) is a new method that is used for the routine monitoring of the variation in body fluids and nutritional status with assumptions regarding body composition values. The aim of the present study was to determine bivariate tolerance intervals of the whole-body impedance vector and to describe phase angle (PA) values for healthy term newborns aged 7-28 d. This descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted on healthy term neonates born at a low-risk public maternity. General and anthropometric neonatal data and bioelectrical impedance data (800 mu A-50 kHz) were obtained. Bivariate vector analysis was conducted with the resistance-reactance (RXc) graph method. The BIVA software was used to construct the graphs. The study was conducted on 109 neonates (52.3% females) who were born at term, adequate for gestational age, exclusively breast-fed and aged 13 (SD 3.6) d. We constructed one standard, reference, RXc-score graph and RXc-tolerance ellipses (50, 75 and 95 %) that can be used with any analyser. Mean PA was 3.14 (SD 0.43)degrees (3.12 (SD 0.39)degrees for males and 3.17 (SD 0.48)degrees for females). Considering the overlapping of ellipses of males and females with the general distribution, a graph for newborns aged 7-28 d with the same reference tolerance ellipse was defined for boys and girls. The results differ from those reported in the literature probably, in part, due to the ethnic differences in body composition. BIVA and PA permit an assessment without the need to know body weight and the prediction error of conventional impedance formulas.
Resumo:
O objetivo foi avaliar a acurácia, precisão e robustez das estimativas da digestibilidade aparente da matéria seca obtidas utilizando-se como indicadores fibra em detergente ácido indigestível (FDAi), fibra em detergente neutro (FDNi) indigestível, lignina em detergente ácido (LDA), LDA indigestível (LDAi) e óxido crômico em comparação ao método de coleta total de fezes. Dezoito ovinos (56,5 ± 4,6 kg PV) foram designados aleatoriamente a dietas compostas de 25, 50 ou 75% de concentrado e feno de Coast cross por 25 dias. As fezes foram coletadas por cinco dias para determinação da digestibilidade aparente da MS. As amostras de alimentos e fezes foram incubadas no rúmen de três bovinos por 144 horas, para obtenção das frações indigestíveis. Óxido crômico foi administrado a 4,0 g/animal/dia. A acurácia foi avaliada pela comparação do viés médio (DAMS predito - DAMS observado) entre os indicadores; a precisão, por meio da raiz quadrada do erro de predição e do erro residual; e a robustez, pelo estudo da regressão entre o viés e o consumo de matéria seca, o nível de concentrado e o peso vivo. A recuperação fecal e a acurácia das estimativas da digestibilidade aparente da MS foram maiores para FDAi, seguida pela FDNi, LDAi, pelo óxido crômico e depois pela lignina em detergente ácido. O viés linear foi significativo apenas para FDAi, FDNi e LDAi. O uso de óxido crômico permitiu estimativas mais precisas da digestibilidade aparente da MS. Todos os indicadores foram robustos quanto à variação no consumo de matéria seca e apenas LDAi e óxido crômico foram robustos quanto aos níveis de concentrado na dieta. O óxido crômico não foi robusto quando houve variação no peso vivo animal. Assim, a FDAi é o indicador mais recomendado na estimativa da digestibilidade aparente da MS em ovinos quando o objetivo é comparar aos dados da literatura, enquanto o óxido crômico é mais recomendado quando o objetivo é comparar tratamentos dentro de um mesmo experimento.
Resumo:
Establishing a few sites in which measurements of soil water storage (SWS) are time stable significantly reduces the efforts involved in determining average values of SWS. This study aimed to apply a new criterion the mean absolute bias error (MABE)-to identify temporally stable sites for mean SWS evaluation. The performance of MABE was compared with that of the commonly used criterion, the standard deviation of relative difference (SDRD). From October 2004 to October 2008, SWS of four soil layers (0-1.0, 1.0-2.0,2.0-3.0, and 3.0-4.0 m) was measured, using a neutron probe, at 28 sites on a hillslope of the Loess Plateau, China. A total of 37 SWS data sets taken over time were divided into two subsets, the first consisting of 22 dates collected during the calibration period from October 2004 to September 2006, and the second with 15 dates collected during the validation period from October 2006 to October 2008. The results showed that if a critical value of 5% for MABE was defined, more than half the sites were temporally stable for both periods, and the number of temporally stable sires generally increased with soil depth. Compared with SDRD, MABE was more suitable for the identification of time-stable sites for mean SS prediction. Since the absolute prediction error of drier sites is more sensitive to changes in relative difference in terms of mean SWS prediction, the sites of wet sectors should be preferable for mean SWS prediction for the same changes in relative difference.
Resumo:
Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of tamoxifen on the weight and thickness of the urethral epithelium of castrated female rats. Methods: Forty castrated adult female Wistar-Hannover rats were randomly divided into two groups: Group I (n = 20) in which the animals received only the vehicle (propylene glycol) and Group 11 (n = 20) in which the rats received tamoxifen 250 mu g/day by gavage. After 30 days of treatment, all animals were sacrificed and the urethra was immediately removed for weighing. Next, the urethra was divided into the proximal and distal segments, which were fixed in 10% formaldehyde and submitted to routine histological techniques for morphometric study. The data were analyzed using the weighted minimum mean-square error method and Student`s t-test for two independent samples (p < 0.05). Results: There was a significant increase in the mean weight of the urethra in the rats of Group 11 compared to the control group, 32.0 +/- 2.0 mg and 22.0 +/- 1.6 mg, respectively (p < 0.001). The mean thickness of the distal urethral epithelium of the animals treated with tamoxifen was significantly greater than that of the control group, 42.8 +/- 2.0 mu m and 36.6 +/- 1.5 mu m, respectively (p < 0.001). There was no statistically significant difference between the two groups with respect to the epithelial thickness of the proximal urethra (p = 0.514). Conclusion: Treating castrated adult rats with 250 mu g/day of tamoxifen for 30 days may increase the weight of the urethra and the thickness of the distal urethral epithelium. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
We use the density functional theory/local-density approximation (DFT/LDA)-1/2 method [L. G. Ferreira , Phys. Rev. B 78, 125116 (2008)], which attempts to fix the electron self-energy deficiency of DFT/LDA by half-ionizing the whole Bloch band of the crystal, to calculate the band offsets of two Si/SiO(2) interface models. Our results are similar to those obtained with a ""state-of-the-art"" GW approach [R. Shaltaf , Phys. Rev. Lett. 100, 186401 (2008)], with the advantage of being as computationally inexpensive as the usual DFT/LDA. Our band gap and band offset predictions are in excellent agreement with experiments.
Resumo:
Objective: Several limitations of published bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) equations have been reported. The aims were to develop in a multiethnic, elderly population a new prediction equation and cross-validate it along with some published BIA equations for estimating fat-free mass using deuterium oxide dilution as the reference method. Design and setting: Cross-sectional study of elderly from five developing countries. Methods: Total body water (TBW) measured by deuterium dilution was used to determine fat-free mass (FFM) in 383 subjects. Anthropometric and BIA variables were also measured. Only 377 subjects were included for the analysis, randomly divided into development and cross-validation groups after stratified by gender. Stepwise model selection was used to generate the model and Bland Altman analysis was used to test agreement. Results: FFM = 2.95 - 3.89 (Gender) + 0.514 (Ht(2)/Z) + 0.090 (Waist) + 0.156 (Body weight). The model fit parameters were an R(2), total F-Ratio, and the SEE of 0.88, 314.3, and 3.3, respectively. None of the published BIA equations met the criteria for agreement. The new BIA equation underestimated FFM by just 0.3 kg in the cross-validation sample. The mean of the difference between FFM by TBW and the new BIA equation were not significantly different; 95% of the differences were between the limits of agreement of -6.3 to 6.9 kg of FFM. There was no significant association between the mean of the differences and their averages (r = 0.008 and p = 0.2). Conclusions: This new BIA equation offers a valid option compared with some of the current published BIA equations to estimate FFM in elderly subjects from five developing countries.
Resumo:
A series of nine new [3-(disubstituted-phosphate)-4,4,4-trifluoro-butyl]-carbamic acid ethyl esters (phosphate-carbamate compounds) was obtained through the reaction of (4,4,4-trifluoro-3-hydroxybut-1-yl)-carbamic acid ethyl esters with phosphorus oxychloride followed by the addition of alcohols. The products were characterized by ¹H, 13C, 31P, and 19F NMR spectroscopy, GC-MS, and elemental analysis. All the synthesized compounds were screened for acetylcholinesterase (AChE) inhibitory activity using the Ellman method. All compounds containing phosphate and carbamate pharmacophores in their structures showed enzyme inhibition, being the compound bearing the diethoxy phosphate group (2b) the most active compound. Molecular modeling studies were performed to investigate the detailed interactions between AChE active site and small-molecule inhibitor candidates, providing valuable structural insights into AChE inhibition.
Resumo:
This paper analyses the presence of financial constraint in the investment decisions of 367 Brazilian firms from 1997 to 2004, using a Bayesian econometric model with group-varying parameters. The motivation for this paper is the use of clustering techniques to group firms in a totally endogenous form. In order to classify the firms we used a hybrid clustering method, that is, hierarchical and non-hierarchical clustering techniques jointly. To estimate the parameters a Bayesian approach was considered. Prior distributions were assumed for the parameters, classifying the model in random or fixed effects. Ordinate predictive density criterion was used to select the model providing a better prediction. We tested thirty models and the better prediction considers the presence of 2 groups in the sample, assuming the fixed effect model with a Student t distribution with 20 degrees of freedom for the error. The results indicate robustness in the identification of financial constraint when the firms are classified by the clustering techniques. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Corresponding to the updated flow pattern map presented in Part I of this study, an updated general flow pattern based flow boiling heat transfer model was developed for CO2 using the Cheng-Ribatski-Wojtan-Thome [L. Cheng, G. Ribatski, L. Wojtan, J.R. Thome, New flow boiling heat transfer model and flow pattern map for carbon dioxide evaporating inside horizontal tubes, Int. J. Heat Mass Transfer 49 (2006) 4082-4094; L. Cheng, G. Ribatski, L. Wojtan, J.R. Thome, Erratum to: ""New flow boiling heat transfer model and flow pattern map for carbon dioxide evaporating inside tubes"" [Heat Mass Transfer 49 (21-22) (2006) 4082-4094], Int. J. Heat Mass Transfer 50 (2007) 391] flow boiling heat transfer model as the starting basis. The flow boiling heat transfer correlation in the dryout region was updated. In addition, a new mist flow heat transfer correlation for CO2 was developed based on the CO2 data and a heat transfer method for bubbly flow was proposed for completeness sake. The updated general flow boiling heat transfer model for CO2 covers all flow regimes and is applicable to a wider range of conditions for horizontal tubes: tube diameters from 0.6 to 10 mm, mass velocities from 50 to 1500 kg/m(2) s, heat fluxes from 1.8 to 46 kW/m(2) and saturation temperatures from -28 to 25 degrees C (reduced pressures from 0.21 to 0.87). The updated general flow boiling heat transfer model was compared to a new experimental database which contains 1124 data points (790 more than that in the previous model [Cheng et al., 2006, 2007]) in this study. Good agreement between the predicted and experimental data was found in general with 71.4% of the entire database and 83.2% of the database without the dryout and mist flow data predicted within +/-30%. However, the predictions for the dryout and mist flow regions were less satisfactory due to the limited number of data points, the higher inaccuracy in such data, scatter in some data sets ranging up to 40%, significant discrepancies from one experimental study to another and the difficulties associated with predicting the inception and completion of dryout around the perimeter of the horizontal tubes. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The paper addresses the problem of autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) modelling and parameter estimation as a means to predict the dynamic performance of underwater vehicles and thus provide solid guidelines during their design phase. The use of analytical and semi-empirical (ASE) methods to estimate the hydrodynamic derivatives of a popular class of AUVs is discussed. A comparison is done with the results obtained by using computational fluid dynamics to evaluate the bare hull lift force distribution around a fully submerged body. An application is made to the estimation of the hydrodynamic derivatives of the MAYA AUV, an autonomous underwater vehicle developed under a joint Indian-Portuguese project. The estimates obtained were used to predict the turning diameter of the vehicle during sea trials. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The purpose of this article is to present a quantitative analysis of the human failure contribution in the collision and/or grounding of oil tankers, considering the recommendation of the ""Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment"" of the International Maritime Organization. Initially, the employed methodology is presented, emphasizing the use of the technique for human error prediction to reach the desired objective. Later, this methodology is applied to a ship operating on the Brazilian coast and, thereafter, the procedure to isolate the human actions with the greatest potential to reduce the risk of an accident is described. Finally, the management and organizational factors presented in the ""International Safety Management Code"" are associated with these selected actions. Therefore, an operator will be able to decide where to work in order to obtain an effective reduction in the probability of accidents. Even though this study does not present a new methodology, it can be considered as a reference in the human reliability analysis for the maritime industry, which, in spite of having some guides for risk analysis, has few studies related to human reliability effectively applied to the sector.
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We propose a robust and low complexity scheme to estimate and track carrier frequency from signals traveling under low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) conditions in highly nonstationary channels. These scenarios arise in planetary exploration missions subject to high dynamics, such as the Mars exploration rover missions. The method comprises a bank of adaptive linear predictors (ALP) supervised by a convex combiner that dynamically aggregates the individual predictors. The adaptive combination is able to outperform the best individual estimator in the set, which leads to a universal scheme for frequency estimation and tracking. A simple technique for bias compensation considerably improves the ALP performance. It is also shown that retrieval of frequency content by a fast Fourier transform (FFT)-search method, instead of only inspecting the angle of a particular root of the error predictor filter, enhances performance, particularly at very low SNR levels. Simple techniques that enforce frequency continuity improve further the overall performance. In summary we illustrate by extensive simulations that adaptive linear prediction methods render a robust and competitive frequency tracking technique.
Resumo:
Imatinib (IMAT) is a tyrosine kinase inhibitor that has been used for the treatment of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). Despite the efficacy of IMAT therapy, some cases of treatment resistance have been described in CML. Developing a plasma method is important since there are several studies that provided a higher correlation between IMAT plasma concentration and response to treatment. Therefore, in this investigation we validated a method by CE as an alternative, new, simple and fast electrophoretic method for IMAT determination in human plasma. The analysis was performed using a fused silica capillary (50 mm id x 46.5 cm total length, 38.0 cm effective length); 50 mmol/L sodium phosphate buffer, pH 2.5, as BGE; hydrodynamic injection time of 20 s (50 mbar); voltage of 30 kV; capillary temperature of 35 degrees C and detection at 200 nm. Plasma samples pre-treatment involved liquid-liquid extraction with methyl-tert-butyl ether as the extracting solvent. The method was linear from 0.125 to 5.00 mg/mL. The LOQ was 0.125 mg/mL. Mean absolute recovery of IMAT was 67%. The method showed to be precise and accurate with RSD and relative error values lower than 15%. Furthermore, the application of the method was performed in the analysis of plasma samples from CML patients undergoing treatment with IMAT.
Resumo:
Axial vertebral rotation, an important parameter in the assessment of scoliosis may be identified on X-ray images. In line with the advances in the field of digital radiography, hospitals have been increasingly using this technique. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the reliability of computer-processed rotation measurements obtained from digital radiographs. A software program was therefore developed, which is able to digitally reproduce the methods of Perdriolle and Raimondi and to calculate semi-automatically the rotation degree of vertebra on digital radiographs. Three independent observers estimated vertebral rotation employing both the digital and the traditional manual methods. Compared to the traditional method, the digital assessment showed a 43% smaller error and a stronger correlation. In conclusion, the digital method seems to be reliable and enhance the accuracy and precision of vertebral rotation measurements.