Regression Models with Heteroscedasticity using Bayesian Approach

In this paper, we compare the performance of two statistical approaches for the analysis of data obtained from the social research area. In the first approach, we use normal models with joint regression modelling for the mean and for the variance heterogeneity. In the second approach, we use hierarchical models. In the first case, individual and social variables are included in the regression modelling for the mean and for the variance, as explanatory variables, while in the second case, the variance at level 1 of the hierarchical model depends on the individuals (age of the individuals), and in the level 2 of the hierarchical model, the variance is assumed to change according to socioeconomic stratum. Applying these methodologies, we analyze a Colombian tallness data set to find differences that can be explained by socioeconomic conditions. We also present some theoretical and empirical results concerning the two models. From this comparative study, we conclude that it is better to jointly modelling the mean and variance heterogeneity in all cases. We also observe that the convergence of the Gibbs sampling chain used in the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for the jointly modeling the mean and variance heterogeneity is quickly achieved.

Numerical analysis of an incremented statistical sampling procedure in MCNP

MCNP has stood so far as one of the main Monte Carlo radiation transport codes. Its use, as any other Monte Carlo based code, has increased as computers perform calculations faster and become more affordable along time. However, the use of Monte Carlo method to tally events in volumes which represent a small fraction of the whole system may turn to be unfeasible, if a straight analogue transport procedure (no use of variance reduction techniques) is employed and precise results are demanded. Calculations of reaction rates in activation foils placed in critical systems turn to be one of the mentioned cases. The present work takes advantage of the fixed source representation from MCNP to perform the above mentioned task in a more effective sampling way (characterizing neutron population in the vicinity of the tallying region and using it in a geometric reduced coupled simulation). An extended analysis of source dependent parameters is studied in order to understand their influence on simulation performance and on validity of results. Although discrepant results have been observed for small enveloping regions, the procedure presents itself as very efficient, giving adequate and precise results in shorter times than the standard analogue procedure. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk of Giardia infection for drinking water and bathing in a peri-urban area in Sao Paulo, Brazil

A high incidence of waterborne diseases is observed worldwide and in order to address contamination problems prior to an outbreak, quantitative microbial risk assessment is a useful tool for estimating the risk of infection. The objective of this paper was to assess the probability of Giardia infection from consuming water from shallow wells in a peri-urban area. Giardia has been described as an important waterborne pathogen and reported in several water sources, including ground waters. Sixteen water samples were collected and examined according to the US EPA (1623, 2005). A Monte Carlo method was used to address the potential risk as described by the exponential dose response model. Giardia cysts occurred in 62.5% of the samples (0.1-36.1 cysts/l). A median risk of 10-1 for the population was estimated and the adult ingestion was the highest risk driver. This study illustrates the vulnerability of shallow well water supply systems in peri-urban areas.

Liquid polymorphism, order-disorder transitions and anomalous behavior: A Monte Carlo study of the Bell-Lavis model for water

The Bell-Lavis model for liquid water is investigated through numerical simulations. The lattice-gas model on a triangular lattice presents orientational states and is known to present a highly bonded low density phase and a loosely bonded high density phase. We show that the model liquid-liquid transition is continuous, in contradiction with mean-field results on the Husimi cactus and from the cluster variational method. We define an order parameter which allows interpretation of the transition as an order-disorder transition of the bond network. Our results indicate that the order-disorder transition is in the Ising universality class. Previous proposal of an Ehrenfest second order transition is discarded. A detailed investigation of anomalous properties has also been undertaken. The line of density maxima in the HDL phase is stabilized by fluctuations, absent in the mean-field solution. (C) 2009 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3253297]

Method for determination of root curvature radius using cone-beam computed tomography images

This article describes and discusses a method to determine root curvature radius by using cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT). The severity of root canal curvature is essential to select instrument and instrumentation technique. The diagnosis and planning of root canal treatment have traditionally been made based on periapical radiography. However, the higher accuracy of CBCT images to identify anatomic and pathologic alterations compared to panoramic and periapical radiographs has been shown to reduce the incidence of false-negative results. In high-resolution images, the measurement of root curvature radius can be obtained by circumcenter. Based on 3 mathematical points determined with the working tools of Planimp® software, it is possible to calculate root curvature radius in both apical and coronal directions. The CBCT-aided method for determination of root curvature radius presented in this article is easy to perform, reproducible and allows a more reliable and predictable endodontic planning, which reflects directly on a more efficacious preparation of curved root canals.

Effect of insertion method on knoop hardness of high viscous glass ionomer cements

The aim of this study was to assess the Knoop hardness of three high viscous glass ionomer cements: G1 - Ketac Molar; G2 - Ketac Molar Easymix (3M ESPE) and G3 - Magic Glass ART (Vigodent). As a parallel goal, three different methods for insertion of Ketac Molar Easymix were tested: G4 - conventional spatula; G5 - commercial syringe (Centrix) and G6 - low-cost syringe. Ten specimens of each group were prepared and the Knoop hardness was determined 5 times on each specimen with a HM-124 hardness machine (25 g/30 s dwell time) after 24 h, 1 and 2 weeks. During the entire test period, the specimens were stored in liquid paraffin at 37ºC. Significant differences were found between G3 and G1/G2 (two-way ANOVA and Tukey's post hoc test; p<0.01). There was no significant difference in the results among the multiple ways of insertion. The glass ionomer cement Magic Glass ART showed the lowest hardness, while the insertion technique had no significant influence on hardness.

Power Secant Method applied to natural frequency extraction of Timoshenko beam structures

This work deals with an improved plane frame formulation whose exact dynamic stiffness matrix (DSM) presents, uniquely, null determinant for the natural frequencies. In comparison with the classical DSM, the formulation herein presented has some major advantages: local mode shapes are preserved in the formulation so that, for any positive frequency, the DSM will never be ill-conditioned; in the absence of poles, it is possible to employ the secant method in order to have a more computationally efficient eigenvalue extraction procedure. Applying the procedure to the more general case of Timoshenko beams, we introduce a new technique, named ""power deflation"", that makes the secant method suitable for the transcendental nonlinear eigenvalue problems based on the improved DSM. In order to avoid overflow occurrences that can hinder the secant method iterations, limiting frequencies are formulated, with scaling also applied to the eigenvalue problem. Comparisons with results available in the literature demonstrate the strength of the proposed method. Computational efficiency is compared with solutions obtained both by FEM and by the Wittrick-Williams algorithm.

A Simple and Fast Method for the Production and Characterization of Methylic and Ethylic Biodiesels from Tucum Oil via an Alkaline Route

A simple, fast, and complete route for the production of methylic and ethylic biodiesel from tucum oil is described. Aliquots of the oil obtained directly from pressed tucum (pulp and almonds) were treated with potassium methoxide or ethoxide at 40 degrees C for 40 min. The biodiesel form was removed from the reactor and washed with 0.1 M HCl aqueous solution. A simple distillation at 100 degrees C was carried out in order to remove water and alcohol species from the biodiesel. The oxidative stability index was obtained for the tucum oil as well as the methylic and ethylic biodiesel at 6.13, 2.90, and 2.80 h, for storage times higher than 8 days. Quality control of the original oil and of the methylic and ethylic biodiesels, such as the amount of glycerin produced during the transesterification process, was accomplished by the TLC, GC-MS, and FT-IR techniques. The results obtained in this study indicate a potential biofuel production by simple treatment of tucum, an important Amazonian fruit.

A simplified minimal residual disease polymerase chain reaction method at early treatment points can stratify children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia into good and poor outcome groups

Background Minimal residual disease is an important independent prognostic factor in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia. The classical detection methods such as multiparameter flow cytometry and real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction analysis are expensive, time-consuming and complex, and require considerable technical expertise. Design and Methods We analyzed 229 consecutive children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia treated according to the GBTLI-99 protocol at three different Brazilian centers. Minimal residual disease was analyzed in bone marrow samples at diagnosis and on days 14 and 28 by conventional homo/heteroduplex polymerase chain reaction using a simplified approach with consensus primers for IG and TCR gene rearrangements. Results At least one marker was detected by polymerase chain reaction in 96.4%, of the patients. By combining the minimal residual disease results obtained on days 14 and 28, three different prognostic groups were identified: minimal residual disease negative on days 14 and 28, positive on day 14/negative on day 28, and positive on both. Five-year event-free survival rates were 85%, 75.6%,, and 27.8%, respectively (p<0.0001). The same pattern of stratification held true for the group of intensively treated children. When analyzed in other subgroups of patients such as those at standard and high risk at diagnosis, those with positive B-derived CD10, patients positive for the TEL/AML1 transcript, and patients in morphological remission on a day 28 marrow, the event-free survival rate was found to be significantly lower in patients with positive minimal residual disease on day 28. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the detection of minimal residual disease on day 28 is the most significant prognostic factor. Conclusions This simplified strategy for detection of minimal residual disease was feasible, reproducible, cheaper and simpler when compared with other methods, and allowed powerful discrimination between children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia with a good and poor outcome.

Combining Monte Carlo simulation and density-functional theory to describe the spectral changes of Na(2) in liquid helium

Spectral changes of Na(2) in liquid helium were studied using the sequential Monte Carlo-quantum mechanics method. Configurations composed by Na(2) surrounded by explicit helium atoms sampled from the Monte Carlo simulation were submitted to time-dependent density-functional theory calculations of the electronic absorption spectrum using different functionals. Attention is given to both line shift and line broadening. The Perdew, Burke, and Ernzerhof (PBE1PBE, also known as PBE0) functional, with the PBE1PBE/6-311++G(2d,2p) basis set, gives the spectral shift, compared to gas phase, of 500 cm(-1) for the allowed X (1)Sigma(+)(g) -> B (1)Pi(u) transition, in very good agreement with the experimental value (700 cm(-1)). For comparison, cluster calculations were also performed and the first X (1)Sigma(+)(g) -> A (1)Sigma(+)(u) transition was also considered.

The isotropic nuclear magnetic shielding constants of acetone in supercritical water: A sequential Monte Carlo/quantum mechanics study including solute polarization

The nuclear isotropic shielding constants sigma((17)O) and sigma((13)C) of the carbonyl bond of acetone in water at supercritical (P=340.2 atm and T=673 K) and normal water conditions have been studied theoretically using Monte Carlo simulation and quantum mechanics calculations based on the B3LYP/6-311++G(2d,2p) method. Statistically uncorrelated configurations have been obtained from Monte Carlo simulations with unpolarized and in-solution polarized solute. The results show that solvent effects on the shielding constants have a significant contribution of the electrostatic interactions and that quantitative estimates for solvent shifts of shielding constants can be obtained modeling the water molecules by point charges (electrostatic embedding). In supercritical water, there is a decrease in the magnitude of sigma((13)C) but a sizable increase in the magnitude of sigma((17)O) when compared with the results obtained in normal water. It is found that the influence of the solute polarization is mild in the supercritical regime but it is particularly important for sigma((17)O) in normal water and its shielding effect reflects the increase in the average number of hydrogen bonds between acetone and water. Changing the solvent environment from normal to supercritical water condition, the B3LYP/6-311++G(2d,2p) calculations on the statistically uncorrelated configurations sampled from the Monte Carlo simulation give a (13)C chemical shift of 11.7 +/- 0.6 ppm for polarized acetone in good agreement with the experimentally inferred result of 9-11 ppm. (C) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

Neuromuscular activity during bench press exercise performed with and without the preexhaustion method

Brennecke, A, Guimaraees, TM, Leone, R, Cadarci, M, Mochizuki, L, Simao, R, Amadio, AC, and Serrao, J. Neuromuscular activity during bench press exercise performed with and without the preexhaustion method. J Strength Cond Res 23(7): 1933-1940, 2009-The purpose of the present study was to investigate the effects of exercise order on the tonic and phasic characteristics of upper-body muscle activity during bench press exercise in trained subjects. The preexhaustion method involves working a muscle or a muscle group combining a single-joint exercise immediately followed by a multi-joint exercise (e. g., flying exercise followed by bench press exercise). Twelve subjects performed 1 set of bench press exercises with and without the preexhaustion method following 2 protocols (P1-flying before bench press; P2-bench press). Both exercises were performed at a load of 10 repetition maximum (10RM). Electromyography (EMG) sampled at 1 kHz was recorded from the pectoralis major (PM), anterior deltoid (DA), and triceps brachii (TB). Kinematic data (60 Hz) were synchronized to define upward and downward phases of exercise. No significant (p > 0.05) changes were seen in tonic control of PM and DA muscles between P1 and P2. However, TB tonic aspect of neurophysiologic behavior of motor units was significantly higher (p < 0.05) during P1. Moreover, phasic control of PM, DA, and TB muscles were not affected (p > 0.05). The kinematic pattern of movement changed as a result of muscular weakness in P1. Angular velocity of the right shoulder performed during the upward phase of the bench press exercise was significantly slower (p < 0.05) during P1. Our results suggest that the strategies set by the central nervous system to provide the performance required by the exercise are held constant throughout the exercise, but the tonic aspects of the central drive are increased so as to adapt to the progressive occurrence of the neuromuscular fatigue. Changes in tonic control as a result of the muscular weakness and fatigue can cause changes in movement techniques. These changes may be related to limited ability to control mechanical loads and mechanical energy transmission to joints and passive structures.

Evaluating an Agile Method for Planning and Controlling Innovative Projects

This article presents an extensive investigation carried out in two technology-based companies of the So Carlos technological pole in Brazil. Based on this multiple case study and literature review, a method, entitled hereafter IVPM2, applying agile project management (APM) principles was developed. After the method implementation, a qualitative evaluation was carried out by a document analysis and questionnaire application. This article shows that the application of this method at the companies under investigation evidenced the benefits of using simple, iterative, visual, and agile techniques to plan and control innovative product projects combined with traditional project management best practices, such as standardization.

Bending of stochastic Kirchhoff plates on Winkler foundations via the Galerkin method and the Askey-Wiener scheme

In this paper, the method of Galerkin and the Askey-Wiener scheme are used to obtain approximate solutions to the stochastic displacement response of Kirchhoff plates with uncertain parameters. Theoretical and numerical results are presented. The Lax-Milgram lemma is used to express the conditions for existence and uniqueness of the solution. Uncertainties in plate and foundation stiffness are modeled by respecting these conditions, hence using Legendre polynomials indexed in uniform random variables. The space of approximate solutions is built using results of density between the space of continuous functions and Sobolev spaces. Approximate Galerkin solutions are compared with results of Monte Carlo simulation, in terms of first and second order moments and in terms of histograms of the displacement response. Numerical results for two example problems show very fast convergence to the exact solution, at excellent accuracies. The Askey-Wiener Galerkin scheme developed herein is able to reproduce the histogram of the displacement response. The scheme is shown to be a theoretically sound and efficient method for the solution of stochastic problems in engineering. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling and Analysis of Piezoelectric Energy Harvesting From Aeroelastic Vibrations Using the Doublet-Lattice Method

Multifunctional structures are pointed out as an important technology for the design of aircraft with volume, mass, and energy source limitations such as unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) and micro air vehicles (MAVs). In addition to its primary function of bearing aerodynamic loads, the wing/spar structure of an UAV or a MAV with embedded piezoceramics can provide an extra electrical energy source based on the concept of vibration energy harvesting to power small and wireless electronic components. Aeroelastic vibrations of a lifting surface can be converted into electricity using piezoelectric transduction. In this paper, frequency-domain piezoaeroelastic modeling and analysis of a canti-levered platelike wing with embedded piezoceramics is presented for energy harvesting. The electromechanical finite-element plate model is based on the thin-plate (Kirchhoff) assumptions while the unsteady aerodynamic model uses the doublet-lattice method. The electromechanical and aerodynamic models are combined to obtain the piezoaeroelastic equations, which are solved using a p-k scheme that accounts for the electromechanical coupling. The evolution of the aerodynamic damping and the frequency of each mode are obtained with changing airflow speed for a given electrical circuit. Expressions for piezoaeroelastically coupled frequency response functions (voltage, current, and electrical power as well the vibratory motion) are also defined by combining flow excitation with harmonic base excitation. Hence, piezoaeroelastic evolution can be investigated in frequency domain for different airflow speeds and electrical boundary conditions. [DOI:10.1115/1.4002785]