CHARACTERIZATION OF EXPONENTIAL DIVERGENCE OF THE KALMAN FILTER FOR TIME-VARYING SYSTEMS

This paper studies semistability of the recursive Kalman filter in the context of linear time-varying (LTV), possibly nondetectable systems with incorrect noise information. Semistability is a key property, as it ensures that the actual estimation error does not diverge exponentially. We explore structural properties of the filter to obtain a necessary and sufficient condition for the filter to be semistable. The condition does not involve limiting gains nor the solution of Riccati equations, as they can be difficult to obtain numerically and may not exist. We also compare semistability with the notions of stability and stability w.r.t. the initial error covariance, and we show that semistability in a sense makes no distinction between persistent and nonpersistent incorrect noise models, as opposed to stability. In the linear time invariant scenario we obtain algebraic, easy to test conditions for semistability and stability, which complement results available in the context of detectable systems. Illustrative examples are included.

The Poisson-exponential lifetime distribution

In this paper we proposed a new two-parameters lifetime distribution with increasing failure rate. The new distribution arises on a latent complementary risk problem base. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including a formal proof of its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulae for its reliability and failure rate functions, quantiles and moments, including the mean and variance. A simple EM-type algorithm for iteratively computing maximum likelihood estimates is presented. The Fisher information matrix is derived analytically in order to obtaining the asymptotic covariance matrix. The methodology is illustrated on a real data set. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exponential Rates of Convergence in the Ergodic Theorem: A Constructive Approach

We prove that, once an algorithm of perfect simulation for a stationary and ergodic random field F taking values in S(Zd), S a bounded subset of R(n), is provided, the speed of convergence in the mean ergodic theorem occurs exponentially fast for F. Applications from (non-equilibrium) statistical mechanics and interacting particle systems are presented.

INDEFINITE QUASILINEAR ELLIPTIC EQUATIONS IN EXTERIOR DOMAINS WITH EXPONENTIAL CRITICAL GROWTH

This paper is concerned with the existence of solutions for the quasilinear problem {-div(vertical bar del u vertical bar(N-2) del u) + vertical bar u vertical bar(N-2) u = a(x)g(u) in Omega u = 0 on partial derivative Omega, where Omega subset of R(N) (N >= 2) is an exterior domain; that is, Omega = R(N)\omega, where omega subset of R(N) is a bounded domain, the nonlinearity g(u) has an exponential critical growth at infinity and a(x) is a continuous function and changes sign in Omega. A variational method is applied to establish the existence of a nontrivial solution for the above problem.

The complementary exponential power lifetime model

In this paper we propose a new lifetime distribution which can handle bathtub-shaped unimodal increasing and decreasing hazard rate functions The model has three parameters and generalizes the exponential power distribution proposed by Smith and Bain (1975) with the inclusion of an additional shape parameter The maximum likelihood estimation procedure is discussed A small-scale simulation study examines the performance of the likelihood ratio statistics under small and moderate sized samples Three real datasets Illustrate the methodology (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

The complementary exponential geometric distribution: Model, properties, and a comparison with its counterpart

In this paper, we proposed a new two-parameter lifetime distribution with increasing failure rate, the complementary exponential geometric distribution, which is complementary to the exponential geometric model proposed by Adamidis and Loukas (1998). The new distribution arises on a latent complementary risks scenario, in which the lifetime associated with a particular risk is not observable; rather, we observe only the maximum lifetime value among all risks. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including a formal proof of its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulas for its reliability and failure rate functions, moments, including the mean and variance, variation coefficient, and modal value. The parameter estimation is based on the usual maximum likelihood approach. We report the results of a misspecification simulation study performed in order to assess the extent of misspecification errors when testing the exponential geometric distribution against our complementary one in the presence of different sample size and censoring percentage. The methodology is illustrated on four real datasets; we also make a comparison between both modeling approaches. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Asymptotic Skewness in Exponential Family Nonlinear Models

In this article, we give an asymptotic formula of order n(-1/2), where n is the sample size, for the skewness of the distributions of the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in exponencial family nonlinear models. We generalize the result by Cordeiro and Cordeiro ( 2001). The formula is given in matrix notation and is very suitable for computer implementation and to obtain closed form expressions for a great variety of models. Some special cases and two applications are discussed.

Skovgaard`s adjustment to likelihood ratio tests in exponential family nonlinear models

Likelihood ratio tests can be substantially size distorted in small- and moderate-sized samples. In this paper, we apply Skovgaard`s [Skovgaard, I.M., 2001. Likelihood asymptotics. Scandinavian journal of Statistics 28, 3-321] adjusted likelihood ratio statistic to exponential family nonlinear models. We show that the adjustment term has a simple compact form that can be easily implemented from standard statistical software. The adjusted statistic is approximately distributed as X(2) with high degree of accuracy. It is applicable in wide generality since it allows both the parameter of interest and the nuisance parameter to be vector-valued. Unlike the modified profile likelihood ratio statistic obtained from Cox and Reid [Cox, D.R., Reid, N., 1987. Parameter orthogonality and approximate conditional inference. journal of the Royal Statistical Society B49, 1-39], the adjusted statistic proposed here does not require an orthogonal parameterization. Numerical comparison of likelihood-based tests of varying dispersion favors the test we propose and a Bartlett-corrected version of the modified profile likelihood ratio test recently obtained by Cysneiros and Ferrari [Cysneiros, A.H.M.A., Ferrari, S.L.P., 2006. An improved likelihood ratio test for varying dispersion in exponential family nonlinear models. Statistics and Probability Letters 76 (3), 255-265]. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Local power of some tests in exponential family nonlinear models

In this paper we obtain asymptotic expansions up to order n(-1/2) for the nonnull distribution functions of the likelihood ratio, Wald, score and gradient test statistics in exponential family nonlinear models (Cordeiro and Paula, 1989), under a sequence of Pitman alternatives. The asymptotic distributions of all four statistics are obtained for testing a subset of regression parameters and for testing the dispersion parameter, thus generalising the results given in Cordeiro et al. (1994) and Ferrari et al. (1997). We also present Monte Carlo simulations in order to compare the finite-sample performance of these tests. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Um modelo estocástico combinado de previsão sazonal para a precipitação no Brasil

Este artigo discute um modelo de previsão combinada para a realização de prognósticos climáticos na escala sazonal. Nele, previsões pontuais de modelos estocásticos são agregadas para obter as melhores projeções no tempo. Utilizam-se modelos estocásticos autoregressivos integrados a médias móveis, de suavização exponencial e previsões por análise de correlações canônicas. O controle de qualidade das previsões é feito através da análise dos resíduos e da avaliação do percentual de redução da variância não-explicada da modelagem combinada em relação às previsões dos modelos individuais. Exemplos da aplicação desses conceitos em modelos desenvolvidos no Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) mostram bons resultados e ilustram que as previsões do modelo combinado, superam na maior parte dos casos a de cada modelo componente, quando comparadas aos dados observados.

Estudo de filtros RC para baixas e altas freqüências por meio de um circuito para superposição de sinais

Apresentamos nesse trabalho, um experimento realizado nos Laboratórios didáticos do Instituto de Física da USP, relacionado ao estudo do funcionamento de filtros RC para baixas e altas freqüências. Para tal, foi especialmente projetado um circuito que efetua a superposição de um sinal gerado internamente, a uma onda senoidal externa. Várias situações experimentais podem ser geradas, por meio da variação da freqüência, tanto do sinal interno quanto da onda senoidal externa. Um estudo das componentes de freqüência de Fourier é também realizado para se estabelecer os parâmetros de funcionamento dos filtros. O funcionamento dos circuitos como integradores e diferenciadores também é explorado. Os estudantes são, portanto, levados a compreender a eficácia desses filtros mais simples, dependendo das freqüências dos sinais de entrada e correspondentes componentes de Fourier, e das freqüências de corte estabelecidas.

Photo-fenton degradation of poly(Ethyleneglycol)

Polyethyleneglycol (PEG) was photooxidized in a photo-Fenton system and results compared with the dark reaction. The products were analysed using GPC and HPLC. In the absence of light, PEG samples needed 490 min to reduce their w by 50%, whereas under UV irradiation, only 10 min were necessary. The exponential decay of w with a concomitant increase in polydispersity and number of average chain scission, characterized a random chain scission mechanism. The degradation products of PEG in both systems showed the presence of lower molecular weight products, including smaller ethyleneglycols and formic acid. The mechanism involves consecutive processes, were the larger ethyleneglycols give rise, successively, to smaller ones. This suggests that the mechanism involves successive scissions of the polymer chain. Irradiated samples decomposed faster than those kept in the dark This study proves that the foto-Fenton method associated with UV-light is a good reactant for PEG photodegradation.

Time resolved emission spectroscopy of poly(2,5-dicyano-p-phenylene-vinylene) films

Films of poly (2,5-dicyano-p-phenylene vinylene), DCNPPV, were obtained by electrochemical synthesis over gold thin layer (20 nm) transparent electrode deposited on a glass plate. The DCNPPV films of 4 µm thickness were produced by electropolymerization process of α,α,α',α'-tetrabromo-2-5-dicyano-p-xilene at different applied potentials (-0.15, -0.25, -0.40, -0.60, -0.80, and -1.0 V) using 0.1 mol L-1 of tetraethylammonium bromide in acetonitrile as the supporting electrolyte. The emission decays have three exponential components: a fast component in the picosecond range (200-400 ps), and two other of about one and five nanoseconds at 293 K. The fluorescence quenching process seems to occur by exciton trapping in a low-energy site and quenching by residual bromine monomer attached at the end of the polymer chain. However, the electrochemical synthesis generates entrapped bromide or ion pairs during the growth step of the film which also contributes to the deactivation. The change of the electrolyte from bromide to perchlorate reduces significantly this additional quenching effect by allowing ion exchange of formed bromide with the nonquenching perchloride anion.

Estudo da decomposição térmica de propelente sólido compósito de baixa emissão de fumaça

The thermal decomposition of hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene (HTPB)/ammonium nitrate (AN) based propellants, so called smokeless formulations, and raw materials were investigated by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and thermogravimetry (TG). The thermoanalytical profile of different components and of propellant were evaluated and the Arrhenius parameters for the thermal decomposition of the propellant sample were determined by the Ozawa method. The kinetic parameters of the thermal decomposition of propellant samples were determined by DSC measurements. The values obtained for activation energy (Ea) and pre-exponential factor were 163 kJ mol-1 and 1.94x10(6) min-1.

Índice h de docentes em Saúde Coletiva no Brasil

OBJETIVO: Estimar valores de referência e função de hierarquia de docentes em Saúde Coletiva do Brasil por meio de análise da distribuição do índice h. MÉTODOS: A partir do portal da Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, 934 docentes foram identificados em 2008, dos quais 819 foram analisados. O índice h de cada docente foi obtido na Web of Science mediante algoritmos de busca com controle para homonímias e alternativas de grafia de nome. Para cada região e para o Brasil como um todo ajustou-se função densidade de probabilidade exponencial aos parâmetros média e taxa de decréscimo por região. Foram identificadas medidas de posição e, com o complemento da função probabilidade acumulada, função de hierarquia entre autores conforme o índice h por região. RESULTADOS: Dos docentes, 29,8% não tinham qualquer registro de citação (h = 0). A média de h para o País foi 3,1, com maior média na região Sul (4,7). A mediana de h para o País foi 2,1, também com maior mediana na Sul (3,2). Para uma padronização de população de autores em cem, os primeiros colocados para o País devem ter h = 16; na estratificação por região, a primeira posição demanda valores mais altos no Nordeste, Sudeste e Sul, sendo nesta última h = 24. CONCLUSÕES: Avaliados pelos índices h da Web of Science, a maioria dos autores em Saúde Coletiva não supera h = 5. Há diferenças entres as regiões, com melhor desempenho para a Sul e valores semelhantes entre Sudeste e Nordeste.