171 resultados para Temporal models


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The objective of the present study was to estimate milk yield genetic parameters applying random regression models and parametric correlation functions combined with a variance function to model animal permanent environmental effects. A total of 152,145 test-day milk yields from 7,317 first lactations of Holstein cows belonging to herds located in the southeastern region of Brazil were analyzed. Test-day milk yields were divided into 44 weekly classes of days in milk. Contemporary groups were defined by herd-test-day comprising a total of 2,539 classes. The model included direct additive genetic, permanent environmental, and residual random effects. The following fixed effects were considered: contemporary group, age of cow at calving (linear and quadratic regressions), and the population average lactation curve modeled by fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial. Additive genetic effects were modeled by random regression on orthogonal Legendre polynomials of days in milk, whereas permanent environmental effects were estimated using a stationary or nonstationary parametric correlation function combined with a variance function of different orders. The structure of residual variances was modeled using a step function containing 6 variance classes. The genetic parameter estimates obtained with the model using a stationary correlation function associated with a variance function to model permanent environmental effects were similar to those obtained with models employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials for the same effect. A model using a sixth-order polynomial for additive effects and a stationary parametric correlation function associated with a seventh-order variance function to model permanent environmental effects would be sufficient for data fitting.

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A total of 152,145 weekly test-day milk yield records from 7317 first lactations of Holstein cows distributed in 93 herds in southeastern Brazil were analyzed. Test-day milk yields were classified into 44 weekly classes of DIM. The contemporary groups were defined as herd-year-week of test-day. The model included direct additive genetic, permanent environmental and residual effects as random and fixed effects of contemporary group and age of cow at calving as covariable, linear and quadratic effects. Mean trends were modeled by a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of DIM. Additive genetic and permanent environmental random effects were estimated by random regression on orthogonal Legendre polynomials. Residual variances were modeled using third to seventh-order variance functions or a step function with 1, 6,13,17 and 44 variance classes. Results from Akaike`s and Schwarz`s Bayesian information criterion suggested that a model considering a 7th-order Legendre polynomial for additive effect, a 12th-order polynomial for permanent environment effect and a step function with 6 classes for residual variances, fitted best. However, a parsimonious model, with a 6th-order Legendre polynomial for additive effects and a 7th-order polynomial for permanent environmental effects, yielded very similar genetic parameter estimates. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Specific leaf area (SLA; m(leaf)(2) kg(leaf)(-1)) is a key ecophysiological parameter influencing leaf physiology, photosynthesis, and whole plant carbon gain. Both individual tree-based models and other forest process-based models are generally highly sensitive to this parameter, but information on its temporal or within-stand variability is still scarce. In a 2-4-year-old Eucalyptus plantation in Congo, prone to seasonal drought, the within-stand and seasonal variability in SLA were investigated by means of destructive sampling carried out at 2-month intervals, over a 2-year period. Within-crown vertical gradients of SLA were small. Highly significant relationships were found between tree-average SLA (SLA(t)) and tree size (tree height, H(t), or diameter at breast height, DBH): SLA(t) ranged from about 9 m(2) kg(-1) for dominant trees to about 14-15 m(2) kg(-1) for the smallest trees. The decrease in SLA(t) with increasing tree size was accurately predicted from DBH using power functions. Stand-average SLA varied by about 20% during the year, with lowest values at the end of the 5-month dry season, and highest values about 2-3 months after the onset of the wet season. Variability in leaf water status according to tree size and season is discussed as a possible determinant of both the within-stand and seasonal variations in SM. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Red currants (Ribes rubrum L.), black currants (Ribes nigrum L.), red and green gooseberries (Ribes uva-crispa) were evaluated for the total phenolics, antioxidant capacity based on 2, 2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl radical scavenging assay and functionality such as in vitro inhibition of alpha-amylase, alpha-glucosidase and angiotensin I-converting enzyme (ACE) relevant for potential management of hyperglycemia and hypertension. The total phenolics content ranged from 3.2 (green gooseberries) to 13.5 (black currants) mg/g fruit fresh weight. No correlation was found between total phenolics and antioxidant activity. The major phenolic compounds were quercetin derivatives (black currants and green gooseberries) and chlorogenic acid (red currants and red gooseberries). Red currants had the highest alpha-glucosidase, alpha-amylase and ACE inhibitory activities. Therefore red currants could be good dietary sources with potential antidiabetes and antihypertension functionality to compliment overall dietary management of early stages of type 2 diabetes.

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Leaves from four different Ginkgo biloba L. trees (1 and 2 - females; 3 and 4 - males), grown at the same conditions, were collected during a period of 5 months (from June to October, 2007). Water and 12% ethanol extracts were analyzed for total phenolics content, antioxidant activity, phenolic profile, and the potential in vitro inhibitory effects on alpha-amylase, alpha-glucosidase, and Angiotensin I-Converting Enzyme (ACE) enzymes related to the management of diabetes and hypertension. The results indicated a significant difference among the trees in all functional benefits evaluated in the leaf extracts and also found important seasonal variation related to the same functional parameters. In general, the aqueous extracts had higher total phenolic content than the ethanolic extracts. Also, no correlation was found between total phenolics and antioxidant activity. In relation to the ACE inhibition, only ethanolic extracts had inhibitory activity. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Fruits of seven fully ripened strawberry cultivars grown in Brazil (Dover, Camp Dover, Camarosa, Sweet Charlie, Toyonoka, Oso Grande, and Piedade) were evaluated for total phenolics, antioxidant activity based on DPPH radical scavenging assay, and functionality such as inhibition of alpha-amylase, alpha-glucosidase, and angiotensin I-converting enzyme (ACE) relevant for potentially managing hyperglycemia and hypertension. The total phenolics content ranged from 966 to 1571 mu g of gallic acid/g of fruit fresh weight for Toyonoka and Dover, respectively. No correlation was found between total phenolics and antioxidant activity. The major phenolic compounds in aqueous extracts of strawberries were ellagic acid, quercetin, and chlorogenic acid. Strawberries had high alpha-glucosidase inhibitory activity. However, alpha-amylase inhibitory activity was very low in all cultivars. This suggested that strawberries could be considered as a potential dietary source with anti-hyperglycemic potential. The evaluated cultivars had no significant ACE inhibitory activity, reflecting low anti-hypertensive potential.

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Objectives In the present study we investigated the anti nociceptive, anti-inflammatory and antipyretic effects of 7-hydroxycoumarin (7-HC) in animal models. Methods The effects of oral 7-HC were tested against acetic acid-induced writhing, formalin test, tail flick test, complete Freund`s adjuvant (CFA)-induced hypemociception, carrageenan-induced paw oedema, lipopolysaccharide-induced fever and the rota rod test. Key findings 7-HC (3-60 mg/kg) produced a dose-related antinociception against acetic acid-induced writhing in mice and in the formalin test. In contrast, treatment with 7-HC did not prevent thermal nociception in the tail flick test. A single treatment with 7-HC, 60 mg/kg, produced a long-lasting antinociceptive effect against CFA-induced hypernociception, a chronic inflammatory pain stimulus. Notably, at 60 mg/kg per day over 4 days the administration of 7-HC produced a continuous antinociceptive effect against CFA-induced hypernociception. 7-HC (30-120 mg/kg) produced anti-inflammatory and antipyretic effects against carrageenan-induced inflammation and lipopolysaccharide-induced fever, respectively. Moreover, 7-HC was found to be safe with respect to ulcer induction. In the rota rod test, 7-HC-treated mice did not show any motor performance alterations. Conclusions The prolonged antinociceptive and anti-inflammatory effects of 7-HC, in association with its low ulcerogenic activity, indicate that this molecule might be a good candidate for development of new drugs for the control of chronic inflammatory pain and fever.

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Aim of the study: The aerial parts of Baccharis dracunculifolia D.C., popularly known as ""alecrim do campo"" are used in folk medicine as anti-inflammatory. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the anti-inflammatory and antinociceptive activities of the crude hydroalcoholic extract obtained from leaves of Baccharis dracunculifolia (BdE), which have not been reported. Matetials and methods: BdE was analyzed by HPLC and in vivo evaluated (doses ranging from 50 to 400 mg/kg, p.o.) by using the acetic acid-induced abdominal constrictions, paw oedema induced by carrageenan or histamine, overt nociception models using capsaicin, glutamate or phorbol myristate acetate (PMA), formalin-induced nociception and mechanical hypernociception induced by carrageenan or complete Freund adjuvant (CFA). As positive controls it was used paracetamol in both acetic acid and formalin tests; dipyrone in capsaicin, glutamate and PMA-induced nociception; indomethacin in CFA and carrageenan-induced hypernociception models. In addition, the in vitro effects of BdE on COX-2 activity and on the activation of NF-kappa B were also evaluated. Results: BdE (50-400 mg/kg, p.o.) significantly diminished the abdominal constrictions induced by acetic acid, glutamate and CFA. Furthermore, BdE also inhibited the nociceptive responses in both phases of formalin-induced nociception. BdE, administered orally, also produced a long-lasting anti-hypernociceptive effect in the acute model of inflammatory pain induced by carrageenan. It was also observed the inhibition of COX-2 activity by BdE. Conclusion: In summary, the data reported in this work confirmed the traditional anti-inflammatory indications of Baccharis dracunculifolia leaves and provided biological evidences that Baccharis dracunculifolia, like Brazilian green propolis, possess antinociceptive and anti-inflammatory activities. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Baccharis dracunculifolia DC (Asteraceae), a native plant from Brazil, commonly known as `Alecrim-do-campo` is widely used in folk medicine to treat inflammation, hepatic disorders and stomach ulcers, and it is the most important botanical source of Southeastern Brazilian propolis, known as green propolis. Its essential oil is composed of non-oxygenated and oxygenated terpenes. In this work, the effects of the essential oil obtained from the aerial parts of R dracunculifolia on gastric ulcers were evaluated. The antiulcer assays were undertaken using the following protocols in rats: nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drug (NSAID)-induced ulcer, ethanol-induced ulcer, stress-induced ulcer, and determination of gastric secretion using ligated pylorus. The treatment in the doses of 50, 250 and 500 mg/kg of R dracunculifolia essential oil significantly diminished the lesion index, the total lesion area and the percentage of lesions in comparison with both positive and negative control groups. With regard to the model of gastric secretion a reduction of gastric juice volume and total acidity was observed, as well as an increase in the gastric pH. No sign of toxicity was observed in the acute toxicity study. Considering the results, it is suggested that the essential oil of B. dracunculifolia could probably be a good therapeutic agent for the development of new phytotherapeutic medicine for the treatment of gastric ulcer. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Many models exist in the literature to explain the success of technological innovation. However, no studies have been made regarding graphic formats representing the technological innovation models and their impact, or on the understanding of these models by non-specialists in technology management. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to propose a new graphic configuration to represent the technological innovation management. Based on the literature, the innovation model is presented in the traditional format. Next, the same model is designed in the graphic format - named `the see-saw of competitiveness` - showing the interfaces among the identified factors. The two graphic formats were compared by a group of graduate students in terms of the ease in understanding the conceptual model of innovation. The statistical analysis shows that the seesaw of competitiveness is preferred.

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Valuation of projects for the preservation of water resources provides important information to policy makers and funding institutions. Standard contingent valuation models rely on distributional assumptions to provide welfare measures. Deviations from assumed and actual distribution of benefits are important when designing policies in developing countries, where inequality is a concern. This article applies semiparametric methods to obtain estimates of the benefit from a project for the preservation of an important Brazilian river basin. These estimates lead to significant differences from those obtained using the standard parametric approach.

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This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The prevalence of the parasite Aporobopyrus curtatus in Petrolisthes armatus from southern Brazil was determined, and the effect the parasite had on host reproduction was evaluated. Of all 775 crabs sampled in Araca region from March 2005 to July 2006, 3.2% presented bopyrid parasites. All the parasitized individuals had one branchial chamber occupied by two mature parasites, with no preference for the right or left chamber. Male and female hosts were infested in equal proportions. Parasitized juveniles, large individuals and ovigerous females were not found in our study. The absence of parasitized ovigerous females seems to be insufficient evidence to support the hypothesis of parasitic castration and would require a histological study to confirm their reproductive death. The percentage of infestation observed in our study (3.1%) is lower than the one found in other studies and it could indicate the existence of factor(s) regulating the density of A. curtatus in the Araca region. At least in this population, the low but constant presence of the bopyrid A. curtatus population did not appear to have a negative effect on the porcellanid population, and parasitized individuals did not play a significant role in the natural history of P. armatus.

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This article addresses the interactions of the synthetic antimicrobial peptide dermaseptin 01 (GLWSTIKQKGKEAAIAAA-KAAGQAALGAL-NH(2), DS 01) with phospholipid (PL) monolayers comprising (i) a lipid-rich extract of Leishmania amazonensis (LRE-La), (ii) zwitterionic PL (dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine, DPPC), and (iii) negatively charged PL (dipalmitoylphosphatidylglycerol, DPPG). The degree of interaction of DS 01 with the different biomembrane models was quantified from equilibrium and dynamic liquid-air interface parameters. At low peptide concentrations, interactions between DS 01 and zwitterionic PL, as well as with the LRE-La monolayers were very weak, whereas with negatively charged PLs the interactions were stronger. For peptide concentrations above 1 mu g/ml, a considerable expansion of negatively charged monolayers occurred. In the case of DPPC, it was possible to return to the original lipid area in the condensed phase, suggesting that the peptide was expelled from the monolayer. However, in the case of DPPG, the average area per lipid molecule in the presence of DS 01 was higher than pure PLs even at high surface pressures, suggesting that at least part of DS 01 remained incorporated in the monolayer. For the LRE-La monolayers, DS 01 also remained in the monolayer. This is the first report on the antiparasitic activity of AMPs using Langmuir monolayers of a natural lipid extract from L. amazonensis. Copyright (C) 2011 European Peptide Society and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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We discuss the expectation propagation (EP) algorithm for approximate Bayesian inference using a factorizing posterior approximation. For neural network models, we use a central limit theorem argument to make EP tractable when the number of parameters is large. For two types of models, we show that EP can achieve optimal generalization performance when data are drawn from a simple distribution.