A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

OPTIMIZATION OF THE TREATMENT PROCESS FOR RESIDUAL WATER FROM A BEER INDUSTRY

The optimization of the treatment process for residual waters from a brewery operating under the modality of an anaerobic reactor and activated sludge combination was studied in two phases. In the first stage, lasting for six months, the characteristics and parameters of the plant operation were analyzed, wherein a diversion rate of more than 50% to aerobic treatment, the use of two aeration tanks and a high sludge production prevailed. The second stage comprised four months during which the system worked under the proposed operational model, with the aim of improving the treatment: reduction of the diversion rate to 30% and use of only one aeration tank At each stage, TSS, VSS and COD were measured at the entrance and exit of the anaerobic reactor mid the aeration tanks. The results were compared with the corresponding design specifications and the needed conditions were applied to reduce the diversion rate towards the aerobic process through monitoring the volume and concentration of the affluent, while applying the strategic changes in reactor parameters needed to increase its efficiency. A diversion reduction from 53 to 34% was achieved, reducing the sludge discharge generated in the aerobic system from 3670mg TSS/l. with two aeration tanks down to 2947mf TSS/l using one tank keeping the same relation VSS:TSS (0.55) and an efficiency of total removal of 98% in terms of COD.

Closed-loop model re-identification of processes under MPC with zone control

This work deals with a procedure for model re-identification of a process in closed loop with ail already existing commercial MPC. The controller considered here has a two-layer structure where the upper layer performs a target calculation based on a simplified steady-state optimization of the process. Here, it is proposed a methodology where a test signal is introduced in a tuning parameter of the target calculation layer. When the outputs are controlled by zones instead of at fixed set points, the approach allows the continuous operation of the process without an excessive disruption of the operating objectives as process constraints and product specifications remain satisfied during the identification test. The application of the method is illustrated through the simulation of two processes of the oil refining industry. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Deciphering the weathering processes using environmental mineralogy and geochemistry: Towards an integrated model of laterite and podzol genesis in the Upper Amazon Basin

This article reports major results from collaborative research between France and Brazil on soil and water systems, carried out in the Upper Amazon Basin. It reveals the weathering processes acting in the partly inundated, low elevation plateaus of the Basin, mostly covered by evergreen forest. Our findings are based on geochemical data and mineral spectroscopy that probe the crystal chemistry of Fe and Al in mineral phases (mainly kaolinite, Al- and Fe-(hydr)oxides) of tropical soils (laterites). These techniques reveal crystal alterations in mineral populations of different ages and changes of metal speciation associated with mineral or organic phases. These results provide an integrated model of soil formation and changes (from laterites to podzols) in distinct hydrological compartments of the Amazon landscapes and under altered water regimes. (C) 2010 Academie des sciences. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Study of sunless tanning formulas using molted snake skin as an alternative membrane model

Sunless tanning formulas have become increasingly popular in recent years for their ability to give people convincing tans without the dangers of skin cancer. Most sunless tanners currently on the market contain dihydroxyacetone (DHA), a keto sugar with three carbons. The temporary pigment provided by these formulasis designed to resemble a UV-induced tan. This study evaluated the effectiveness of carbomer gels and cold process self emulsifying bases on skin pigmentation, using different concentrations of a chemical system composed of DHA and N-acetyl tyrosine, which are found in moulted snake skins and their effectiveness was tested by Mexameter (R) MX 18. Eight different sunless tanning formulas were developed, four of which were gels and four of which were emulsions (base, base plus 4.0%, 5.0% and 6.0% (w/w) of a system of DHA and N-acetyl tyrosine). Tests to determine the extent of artificial tanning were done by applying 30 mg cm(-2) of each formula onto standard sizes of moulted snake skin (2.0 cm x 3.0 cm). A Mexameter (R) MX 18 was used to evaluate the extent of coloration in the moulted snake skin at T(0) (before the application) and after 24, 48, 72, 168, 192 and 216 h. The moulted snake skins can be used as an alternative membrane model for in vitro sunless tanning efficacy tests due to their similarity to the human stratum corneum. The DHA concentration was found to influence the initiation of the pigmentation in both sunless tanning systems (emulsion and gel) as well as the time required to increases by a given amount on the tanning index. In the emulsion system, the DHA concentration also influenced the final value on the tanning index. The type of system (emulsion or gel) has no influence on the final value in the tanning index after 216 h for samples with the same DHA concentration.

Environmental impact evaluation using a cooperative model for implementing EMS (ISO 14001) in small and medium-sized enterprises

Certification of an ISO 14001 Environmental Management System (EMS) is currently an important requirement for those enterprises wishing to sell their products in the context of a global market. The system`s structure is based on environmental impact evaluation (EIE). However, if an erroneous or inadequate methodology is applied, the entire process may be jeopardized. Many methodologies have been developed for making of EIEs, some of them are fairly complex and unsuitable for EMS implementation in an organizational context, principally when small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) are involved. The proposed methodology for EIE is part of a model for implementing EMS. The methodological approach used was a qualitative exploratory research method based upon sources of evidence such as document analyses, semi-structured interviews and participant observations. By adopting a cooperative implementation model based on the theory of system engineering, difficulties relating to implementation of the sub-system were overcome thus encouraging SMEs to implement EMS. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Systemic Model for Diagnosis of the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises from Two Cities from the Countryside of the State of So Paulo in Brazil

This article presents a proposal of a systemic model composed for the micro and small companies (MSE) of the region of Ribeiro Preto and the agents which influenced their environment. The proposed model was based on Stafford Beer`s (Diagnosing the system for organizations. Chichester, Wiley, 1985) systemic methodologies VSM (Viable System Model) and on Werner Ulrich`s (1983) CSH (Critical Systems Heuristics). The VSM is a model for the diagnosis of the structure of an organization and of its flows of information through the application of the cybernetics concepts (Narvarte, In El Modelo del Sistema Viable-MSV: experiencias de su aplicacin en Chile. Proyecto Cerebro Colectivo del IAS, Santiago, 2001). On the other hand, CSH focus on the context of the social group applied to the systemic vision as a counterpoint to the organizational management view considered by the VSM. MSE of Ribeiro Preto and Sertozinho had been analyzed as organizations inserted in systems that relate and integrate with other systems concerning the public administration, entities of representation and promotion agencies. The research questions: which are the bonds of interaction among the subsystems in this process and who are the agents involved? The systemic approach not only diagnosed a social group, formed by MSE of Ribeiro Preto and Sertozinho, public authorities and support entities, but could also delineate answers that aimed the clarification of obscure questions generating financial assistance to the formularization of efficient actions for the development of this system.

Preparation of protein-loaded-PLGA microspheres by an emulsion/solvent evaporation process employing LTCC micromixers

This study presents the possibilities offered by microfluidic structures for the production of polymeric microspheres, using a process based upon the production of an emulsion. LTCC (Low Temperature Co-fired Ceramics) micromixers have been used for the preparation of polymeric microspheres. The effect of the geometry of the micromixers has been studied, with a specific focus on the size of the microspheres. as well as the control release properties of a model protein loaded within these microspheres. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V.

A Comparison Between Pulse Pressure Variation and Right End Diastolic Volume Index as Guides to Resuscitation in a Model of Hemorrhagic Shock in Pigs

Background: Different hemodynamic parameters including static indicators of cardiac preload as right ventricular end-diastolic volume index (RVEDVI) and dynamic parameters as pulse pressure variation (PPV) have been used in the decision-making process regarding volume expansion in critically ill patients. The objective of this study was to compare fluid resuscitation guided by either PPV or RVEDVI after experimentally induced hemorrhagic shock. Methods: Twenty-six anesthetized and mechanically ventilated pigs were allocated into control (group I), PPV (group II), or RVEDVI (group III) group. Hemorrhagic shock was induced by blood withdrawal to target mean arterial pressure of 40 mm Hg, maintained for 60 minutes. Parameters were measured at baseline, time of shock, 60 minutes after shock, immediately after resuscitation with hydroxyethyl starch 6% (130/0.4), 1 hour and 2 hours thereafter. The endpoint of fluid resuscitation was determined as the baseline values of PPV and RVEDVI. Statistical analysis of data was based on analysis of variance for repeated measures followed by the Bonferroni test (p < 0.05). Results: Volume and time to resuscitation were higher in group III than in group II (group III = 1,305 +/- 331 mL and group II = 965 +/- 245 mL, p < 0.05; and group III = 24.8 +/- 4.7 minutes and group II = 8.8 +/- 1.3 minutes, p < 0.05, respectively). All static and dynamic parameters and biomarkers of tissue oxygenation were affected by hemorrhagic shock and nearly all parameters were restored after resuscitation in both groups. Conclusion: In the proposed model of hemorrhagic shock, resuscitation to the established endpoints was achieved within a smaller amount of time and with less volume when guided by PPV than when guided by pulmonary artery catheter-derived RVEDVI.

A Dynamic Model of Hand-and-Foot Syndrome in Patients Receiving Capecitabine

For the purpose of developing a longitudinal model to predict hand-and-foot syndrome (HFS) dynamics in patients receiving capecitabine, data from two large phase III studies were used. Of 595 patients in the capecitabine arms, 400 patients were randomly selected to build the model, and the other 195 were assigned for model validation. A score for risk of developing HFS was modeled using the proportional odds model, a sigmoidal maximum effect model driven by capecitabine accumulation as estimated through a kinetic-pharmacodynamic model and a Markov process. The lower the calculated creatinine clearance value at inclusion, the higher was the risk of HFS. Model validation was performed by visual and statistical predictive checks. The predictive dynamic model of HFS in patients receiving capecitabine allows the prediction of toxicity risk based on cumulative capecitabine dose and previous HFS grade. This dose-toxicity model will be useful in developing Bayesian individual treatment adaptations and may be of use in the clinic.

Expression of vitamin D receptor mRNA in the hippocampal formation of rats submitted to a model of temporal lobe epilepsy induced by pilocarpine

Vitamin D (VD), is a steroid hormone with multiple functions in the central nervous system (CNS), producing numerous physiological effects mediated by its receptor (VDR). Clinical and experimental studies have shown a link between VD dysfunction and epilepsy. Along these lines, the purpose of our work was to analyze the relative expression of VDR mRNA in the hippocampal formation of rats during the three periods of pilocarpine-induced epilepsy. Male Wistar rats were divided into five groups: (1) control group; rats that received saline 0.9%, i.p. and were killed 7 days after its administration (CTRL, n = 8), (2) SE group; rats that received pilocarpine and were killed 4 h after SE (SE, n = 8), (3) Silent group-7 days; rats that received pilocarpine and were killed 7 days after SE (SIL 7d, n = 8), (4) Silent group-14 days; rats that received pilocarpine and were killed 14 days after SE (SIL 14d, n = 8), (5) Chronic group; rats that received pilocarpine and were killed 60 days after the first spontaneous seizure, (chronic, n = 8). The relative expression of VDR mRNA was determined by real-time PCR. Our results showed an increase of the relative expression of VDR mRNA in the SIL 7 days, SIL 14 days and Chronic groups, respectively (0.060 +/- 0.024; 0.052 +/- 0.035; 0.085 +/- 0.055) when compared with the CTRL and SE groups (0.019 +/- 0.017; 0.019 +/- 0.025). These data suggest the VDR as a possible candidate participating in the epileptogenesis process of the pilocarpine model of epilepsy. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inducible nitric oxide synthase inhibition attenuates lung tissue responsiveness and remodeling in a model of chronic pulmonary inflammation in guinea pigs

We evaluated the influence of iNOS-derived NO on the mechanics, inflammatory, and remodeling process in peripheral lung parenchyma of guinea pigs with chronic pulmonary allergic inflammation. Animals treated or not with 1400W were submitted to seven exposures of ovalbumin in increasing doses. Seventy-two hours after the 7th inhalation, lung strips were suspended in a Krebs organ bath, and tissue resistance and elastance measured at baseline and after ovalbumin challenge. The strips were submitted to histopathological measurements. The ovalbumin-exposed animals showed increased maximal responses of resistance and elastance (p < 0.05), eosinophils counting (p < 0.001), iNOS-positive cells (p < 0.001), collagen and elastic fiber deposition (p < 0.05), actin density (p < 0.05) and 8-iso-PGF2 alpha expression (p < 0.001) in alveolar septa compared to saline-exposed ones. Ovalbumin-exposed animals treated with 1400 W had a significant reduction in lung functional and histopathological findings (p < 0.05). We showed that iNOS-specific inhibition attenuates lung parenchyma constriction, inflammation, and remodeling, suggesting NO-participation in the modulation of the oxidative stress pathway. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Intravenous glutamine decreases lung and distal organ injury in an experimental model of abdominal sepsis

Introduction The protective effect of glutamine, as a pharmacological agent against lung injury, has been reported in experimental sepsis; however, its efficacy at improving oxygenation and lung mechanics, attenuating diaphragm and distal organ injury has to be better elucidated. In the present study, we tested the hypothesis that a single early intravenous dose of glutamine was associated not only with the improvement of lung morpho-function, but also the reduction of the inflammatory process and epithelial cell apoptosis in kidney, liver, and intestine villi. Methods Seventy-two Wistar rats were randomly assigned into four groups. Sepsis was induced by cecal ligation and puncture surgery (CLP), while a sham operated group was used as control (C). One hour after surgery, C and CLP groups were further randomized into subgroups receiving intravenous saline (1 ml, SAL) or glutamine (0.75 g/kg, Gln). At 48 hours, animals were anesthetized, and the following parameters were measured: arterial oxygenation, pulmonary mechanics, and diaphragm, lung, kidney, liver, and small intestine villi histology. At 18 and 48 hours, Cytokine-Induced Neutrophil Chemoattractant (CINC)-1, interleukin (IL)-6 and 10 were quantified in bronchoalveolar and peritoneal lavage fluids (BALF and PLF, respectively). Results CLP induced: a) deterioration of lung mechanics and gas exchange; b) ultrastructural changes of lung parenchyma and diaphragm; and c) lung and distal organ epithelial cell apoptosis. Glutamine improved survival rate, oxygenation and lung mechanics, minimized pulmonary and diaphragmatic changes, attenuating lung and distal organ epithelial cell apoptosis. Glutamine increased IL-10 in peritoneal lavage fluid at 18 hours and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid at 48 hours, but decreased CINC-1 and IL-6 in BALF and PLF only at 18 hours. Conclusions In an experimental model of abdominal sepsis, a single intravenous dose of glutamine administered after sepsis induction may modulate the inflammatory process reducing not only the risk of lung injury, but also distal organ impairment. These results suggest that intravenous glutamine may be a potentially beneficial therapy for abdominal sepsis.

Effects of bone marrow-derived mononuclear cells on airway and lung parenchyma remodeling in a murine model of chronic allergic inflammation

We hypothesized that bone marrow-derived mononuclear cells (BMDMC) would attenuate the remodeling process in a chronic allergic inflammation model. C57BL/6 mice were assigned to two groups. In OVA, mice were sensitized and repeatedly challenged with ovalbumin. Control mice (C) received saline under the same protocol. C and OVA were further randomized to receive BMDMC (2 x 10(6)) or saline intravenously 24 h before the first challenge. BMDMC therapy reduced eosinophil infiltration, smooth muscle-specific actin expression, subepithelial fibrosis, and myocyte hypertrophy and hyperplasia, thus causing a decrease in airway hyperresponsiveness and lung mechanical parameters. BMDMC from green fluorescent protein (GFP)-transgenic mice transplanted into GFP-negative mice yielded lower engraftment in OVA. BMDMC increased insulin-like growth factor expression, but reduced interleukin-5, transforming growth factor-beta, platelet-derived growth factor, and vascular endothelial growth factor mRNA expression. In conclusion, in the present chronic allergic inflammation model, BMDMC therapy was an effective pre-treatment protocol that potentiated airway epithelial cell repair and prevented inflammatory and remodeling processes. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Do the Effects of Pentoxifylline on the Inflammatory Process and Pancreatic Infection Justify Its Use in Acute Pancreatitis?

Severe acute pancreatitis is associated with high morbidity and mortality rates. At the present time, no specific therapy has been shown to be uniformly effective in reducing morbidity and mortality in this disease. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of pentoxifylline on the pancreatic and systemic inflammatory process, pancreatic infection, and mortality rate in severe acute pancreatitis in rats. Methods: One hundred and twenty male Wistar rats were divided into 3 groups: sham, pancreatitis, and pentoxifylline (acute pancreatitis induction plus administration of 25 mg/kg pentoxifylline). Inflammatory response was measured by histological studies, inflammatory cytokine production (IL-6, IL-10, and TNF-alpha), and mortality rate. Pancreatic infection was evaluated by bacterial cultures expressed in colony-forming units per gram. Results: Pentoxifylline-treated animals had a statistically significant reduction of inflammatory cytokine levels, pancreatic histological damage, occurrence of bacterial translocation and pancreatic infection (p < 0.05), associated with a significant reduction in mortality rate. Conclusions: Pentoxifylline administration in this experimental model of acute pancreatitis reduces local and systemic inflammatory responses and decreases the pancreatic infection and the mortality rate. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel and IAP