A Bayesian approach to fuzzy hypotheses testing for the estimation of optimal age for vaccination against measles

Fuzzy Bayesian tests were performed to evaluate whether the mother`s seroprevalence and children`s seroconversion to measles vaccine could be considered as ""high"" or ""low"". The results of the tests were aggregated into a fuzzy rule-based model structure, which would allow an expert to influence the model results. The linguistic model was developed considering four input variables. As the model output, we obtain the recommended age-specific vaccine coverage. The inputs of the fuzzy rules are fuzzy sets and the outputs are constant functions, performing the simplest Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model. This fuzzy approach is compared to a classical one, where the classical Bayes test was performed. Although the fuzzy and classical performances were similar, the fuzzy approach was more detailed and revealed important differences. In addition to taking into account subjective information in the form of fuzzy hypotheses it can be intuitively grasped by the decision maker. Finally, we show that the Bayesian test of fuzzy hypotheses is an interesting approach from the theoretical point of view, in the sense that it combines two complementary areas of investigation, normally seen as competitive. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A fuzzy Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading

In this paper, we present a fuzzy approach to the Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection. The heterogeneities in the infected group is based on the clinical signals of the individuals (symptoms, laboratorial exams, medical findings, etc.), which are incorporated into the dynamic of the epidemic. The infectivity level is time-varying and the classification of the individuals is performed through fuzzy relations. Simulations considering a real problem with data of the viral epidemic in a children daycare are performed and the results are compared with a stochastic Reed-Frost generalization.

Relative Bioavailability of Two Oral Formulations of Risperidone 2 mg: A Single-Dose, Randomized-Sequence, Open-Label, Two-Period Crossover Comparison in Healthy Brazilian Volunteers

Background: Risperidone (RSP) is a benzisoxazole antipsychotic agent used to treat schizophrenia and other psychiatric illnesses in adults and children (including those with autism). After oral administration, RSP is completely absorbed from the gastrointestinal tract and undergoes hydroxylation to yield 9-hydroxyrisperidone (9-OH-RSP), an active metabolite that has a pharmacologic profile and potency similar to RSP. Objectives: The aims of this study were to compare the relative bioavailability of a pharmaceutical-equivalent (test) formulation with a reference formulation of oral RSP 2 mg, both available commercially on the Brazilian pharmaceutical market, and to generate data regarding the oral bioavailability of the tested drug in healthy Brazilian volunteers. Methods: This single-dose, randomized-sequence, open-label, 2-period crossover study was conducted in healthy Brazilian volunteers from August to December 2008. Subjects were randomly assigned to receive the test formulation followed by the reference formulation or vice versa, with a 30-day washout period between doses. Study drugs were administered after a 12-hour overnight fast. For pharmacokinetic analysis, blood samples were drawn at 0 (baseline), 0.25, 0.5, 1, 1.5, 3, 5, 8, 12, 24, 48, 72, 96, and 120 hours after administration. Plasma concentrations of RSP and 9-OH-RSP were determined using LC-MS/MS. The test and reference formulations were to be considered bioequivalent if the 90% CIs for the geometric mean test/reference ratios were within a predetermined range of 80% to 125%, in accordance with the policies of the Brazilian Sanitary Surveillance Agency and the US Food and Drug Administration. Tolerability was determined using clinical assessments, monitoring of vital signs, analysis of laboratory test results, and subject interviews regarding adverse events. Results: A total of 22 subjects were enrolled (11 men, 11 women; mean [SD] age, 32 [12] years [range, 18-58 years]; weight, 70.4 [11.9] kg [range, 50-103 kg]; height, 1.67 [0.08] m [range, 1.56-1.80 m]; and body mass index, 25 [4] kg/m(2) [range, 18-29 kg/m(2)]). For RSP, mean (SD) C(max) values were 12.6 (2.7) and 16.0 (2.3) ng/mL for the test and reference formulations, respectively. For 9-OH-RSP, mean C(max) values were 17.8 (1.3) and 21.0 (1.7) ng/mL for the test and reference formulations. The 90% CIs for the mean test/reference ratios for RSP C(max), AUC(0-120), and AUC(0-infinity) were 74% to 82%, 75% to 85%, and 76% to 85%, respectively, and 83% to 87%, 75% to 79%, and 75% to 78% for 9-OH-RSP. The related adverse events (headache, low back pain, drowsiness, standing hypotension, local postvenipuncture ecchymoses, insomnia, nausea, and vomiting) were transient and mild. Conclusions: This single-dose study found that the test and reference formulations of oral RSP 2 mg did not meet the Brazilian and US regulatory criteria for bioequivalence in these fasting, healthy volunteers. The study formulations appeared to be well tolerated. (Clin Ther 2010;32:2106-2115) (C) 2010 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc.

Timing of Dose Relative to Sexual Intercourse Attempt in Previous Sildenafil Citrate Users Treated with Tadalafil: A Geographical Comparison from a Single Arm, Open-Label Study

Introduction. Previous research has demonstrated that sildenafil citrate users alter dosing-sexual attempt behavior when switched to tadalafil. The impact of geography and culture on sexual behavior with phosphodiesterase type 5 (PDE5) inhibitor treatment has not been fully investigated. Aim. To describe and compare the changes in dosing-sexual attempt behavior with sildenafil citrate vs. tadalafil treatment across four distinct geographies: Asia, Australia/New Zealand (ANZ), Central Eastern Europe/Middle East (CEE/ME), and Latin America (LA). Methods. Data from a single-arm, open-label clinical trial conducted in 21 countries from November 2002 to May 2004 were used in this analysis. Men with erectile dysfunction and a history of >= 6-week prior sildenafil citrate use continued sildenafil citrate treatment for 4 weeks then switched to tadalafil for 8 weeks. Dosing instructions were provided. Main Outcomes Measures. Timing of dose and sexual intercourse was assessed through patient diaries for the final 4 weeks of each treatment period. Results. A total of 2,760 men were enrolled: Asia 15.8%; ANZ 29.4%; CEE/ME 19.7%; LA 35.1%. The median time from dosing to intercourse was significantly increased during tadalafil treatment across all geographical regions; however, the magnitude of increase differed significantly by geography (P < 0.0001). The Asian cohort demonstrated the shortest duration between dosing and sexual intercourse attempts (irrespective of drug), and altered sexual behavior the least upon switching to tadalafil. The ANZ cohort demonstrated the longest duration between dosing and sexual intercourse attempts (irrespective of drug), and altered sexual behavior the most upon switching to tadalafil. Conclusion. Men with a history of established sildenafil citrate use alter their dose-attempt behavior when treated with tadalafil irrespective of geography. However, the extent to which sexual behavior alters is not uniform across geographical regions, suggesting that dosing instructions and duration of drug effectiveness, in combination with personal and cultural preferences, may determine sexual behavior with PDE5 inhibitor use. Rubio-Aurioles E, Glina S, Abdo CHN, Hernandez-Serrano R, Rampazzo C, Sotomayor M, West TM, Gallagher GL, and Lenero E. Timing of dose relative to sexual intercourse attempt in previous sildenafil citrate users treated with tadalafil: A geographical comparison from a single arm, open-label study. J Sex Med 2009;6:2836-2850.

Effects of gonadotropin-releasing hormone at initiation of the 5-d timed artificial insemination (AI) program and timing of induction of ovulation relative to AI on ovarian dynamics and fertility of dairy heifers

Two experiments evaluated the effects of the first GnRH injection of the 5-d timed artificial insemination (AI) program on ovarian responses and pregnancy per AT (P/AI), and the effect of timing of the final GnRH to induce ovulation relative to AT on P/AI. In experiment 1, 605 Holstein heifers were synchronized for their second insemination and assigned randomly to receive GnRH on study d 0 (n = 298) or to remain as untreated controls (n = 307). Ovaries were scanned on study d 0 and 5. All heifers received a controlled internal drug-release (CIDR) insert containing progesterone on d 0, a single injection of PGF(2 alpha),, and removal of the CIDR on d 5, and GnRH concurrent with timed AT on d 8. Blood was analyzed for progesterone at AI. Pregnancy was diagnosed on d 32 and 60 after AI. Ovulation on study d 0 was greater for GnRH than control (35.4 vs. 10.6%). Presence of a new corpus luteum (CL) at PGF(2 alpha),, injection was greater for GnRH than for control (43.1 vs. 20.8%), although the proportion of heifers with a CL at PGF(2 alpha) did not differ between treatments and averaged 87.1%. Progesterone on the day of AT was greater for GaRH than control (0.50 +/- 0.07 vs. 0.28 +/- 0.07 ng/mL). The proportion of heifers at AI with progesterone <0.5 ng/mL was less for GURH than for control (73.8 vs. 88.2%). The proportion of heifers in estrus at AI did not differ between treatments and averaged 66.8%. Pregnancy per AI was not affected by treatment at d 32 or 60 (GnRH = 52.5 and 49.8% vs. control = 54.1 and 50.0%), and pregnancy loss averaged 6.0%. Responses to GnRH were not influenced by ovarian status on study d 0. In experiment 2, 1,295 heifers were synchronized for their first insemination and assigned randomly to receive a CIDR on d 0, PGF(2 alpha) and removal of the CIDR on d 5, and either GnRH 56 h after PGF(2 alpha) and AI 16 h later (OVS56, n = 644) or GnRH concurrent with AI 72 h after PGF(2 alpha) (COS72; n = 651). Estrus at AI was greater for COS72 than for OVS56 (61.4 vs. 47.5). Treatment did not affect P/AI on d 32 in heifers displaying signs of estrus at AI, but COS72 improved P/AI compared with OVS56 (55.0 vs. 47.6%) in those not in estrus at AI. Similarly, P/AI on d 60 did not differ between treatments for heifers displaying estrus, but COS72 improved P/AI compared with OVS56 (53.0 vs. 44.7%) in those not in estrus at AI. Administration of GnRH on the first day of the 5-d timed AI program resulted in low ovulation rate and no improvement in P/AI when heifers received a single PGF(2 alpha) injection 5 d later. Moreover, extending the proestrus by delaying the finAI GnRH from 56 to 72 h concurrent with AI benefited fertility of dairy heifers that did not display signs of estrus at insemination following the 5-d timed AI protocol.

Relative effects of fragment size and connectivity on bird community in the Atlantic Rain Forest: Implications for conservation

It is known that large fragment sizes and high connectivity levels are key components for maintaining species in fragments; however, their relative effects are poorly understood, especially in tropical areas. In order to test these effects, we built models for explaining understory birds occurrence in a fragmented Atlantic Rain Forest landscape with intermediate habitat cover (3%). Data from over 9000 mist-net hours from 17 fragments differing in size (2-175 ha) and connectivity (considering corridor linkages and distance to nearby fragments) were ranked under a model selection approach. A total 1293 individuals of 62 species were recorded. Species richness, abundance and compositional variation were mainly affected by connectivity indices that consider the capacity of species to use corridors and/or to cross short distances up to 30 m through the matrix. Bird functional groups were differently affected by area and connectivity: while terrestrial insectivores, omnivores and frugivores were affected by both area and connectivity, the other groups (understory insectivores, nectarivores, and others) were affected only by connectivity. In the studied landscape, well connected fragments can sustain an elevated number of species and individuals. Connectivity gives the opportunity for individuals to use multiple fragments, reducing the influence of fragment size. While preserving large fragments is a conservation target worldwide and should continue to be, our results indicated that connectivity between fragments can enhance the area functionally connected and is beneficial to all functional groups and therefore should be a conservation priority. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relative effect of litter quality, forest type and their interaction on leaf decomposition in south-east Brazilian forests

Decomposition was studied in a reciprocal litter transplant experiment to examine the effects of forest type, litter quality and their interaction on leaf decomposition in four tropical forests in south-east Brazil. Litterbags were used to measure decomposition of leaves of one tree species from each forest type: Calophyllum brasiliense from restinga forest; Guapira opposita from Atlantic forest; Esenbeckia leiocarpa from semi-deciduous forest; and Copaifera langsdorffii from cerradao. Decomposition rates in rain forests (Atlantic and restinga) were twice as fast as those in seasonal forests (semi-deciduous and cerradao), suggesting that intensity and distribution of precipitation are important predictors of decomposition rates at regional scales. Decomposition rates varied by species, in the following order: E. leiocarpa > C. langsdorffii > G. opposita > C. brasiliense. However, there was no correlation between decomposition rates and chemical litter quality parameters: C:N, C:P, lignin concentration and lignin:N. The interaction between forest type and litter quality was positive mainly because C. langsdorffii decomposed faster than expected in its native forest. This is a potential indication of a decomposer`s adaptation to specific substrates in a tropical forest. These findings suggest that besides climate, interactions between decomposers and plants might play an essential role in decomposition processes and it must be better understood.

Retinoic Acid and VEGF Delay Smooth Muscle Relative to Endothelial Differentiation to Coordinate Inner and Outer Coronary Vessel Wall Morphogenesis

Rationale: Major coronary vessels derive from the proepicardium, the cellular progenitor of the epicardium, coronary endothelium, and coronary smooth muscle cells (CoSMCs). CoSMCs are delayed in their differentiation relative to coronary endothelial cells (CoEs), such that CoSMCs mature only after CoEs have assembled into tubes. The mechanisms underlying this sequential CoE/CoSMC differentiation are unknown. Retinoic acid (RA) is crucial for vascular development and the main RA-synthesizing enzyme is progressively lost from epicardially derived cells as they differentiate into blood vessel types. In parallel, myocardial vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) expression also decreases along coronary vessel muscularization. Objective: We hypothesized that RA and VEGF act coordinately as physiological brakes to CoSMC differentiation. Methods and Results: In vitro assays (proepicardial cultures, cocultures, and RALDH2 [retinaldehyde dehydrogenase-2]/VEGF adenoviral overexpression) and in vivo inhibition of RA synthesis show that RA and VEGF act as repressors of CoSMC differentiation, whereas VEGF biases epicardially derived cell differentiation toward the endothelial phenotype. Conclusion: Experiments support a model in which early high levels of RA and VEGF prevent CoSMC differentiation from epicardially derived cells before RA and VEGF levels decline as an extensive endothelial network is established. We suggest this physiological delay guarantees the formation of a complex, hierarchical, tree of coronary vessels. (Circ Res. 2010;107:204-216.)

Relative contribution of pre- and post-synaptic effects to the neostigmine-induced recovery of neuromuscular transmission blocked by vecuronium

The relative contribution of the pre- and post-synaptic effects to the neostigmine-induced recovery of neuromuscular transmission blocked by vecuronium was studied. A conjunction of myographical and electrophysiological techniques was employed. The preparation was the sciatic nerve-extensor digitorum longus muscle of the rat, in vitro. The physiological variables recorded were nerve-evoked twitches (generated at 0.1 Hz), tetanic contractions (generated at 50 Hz) and end-plate potentials (epps), generated in trains of 50 Hz. The epps were analyzed in: amplitude of first epp in the train; mean amplitude of the 30th to the 59th epp in the train (epps-plateau); half-decay time of the epp; early tetanic rundown of epps in the train; plateau tetanic rundown of epps in the train; quantal content of the epps and quantal size. In myographical experiments, a concentration of vecuronium was found (0.8 mu m) that affected both twitches and tetanic contractions and a concentration of neostigmine was found (0.048 mu m) that completely restored the twitch affected by vecuronium. The cellular effects of vecuronium and neostigmine, studied alone or in association, in the above-mentioned concentrations, were scrutinized by means of electrophysiological techniques. These showed that vecuronium alone decreased the peak amplitude, the quantal content of epps and the quantal size and reinforced the tetanic rundown of epps. Neostigmine alone increased the peak amplitude, the quantal content and the half-decay time of the epps. When employed in the presence of vecuronium, neostigmine increased both the quantal content of the epps (via a presynaptic effect) and the half-decay time of the epps (via a postsynaptic effect). Seeing the pre- and the post-synaptic effects of neostigmine were of similar magnitude, they permit to conclude that both these effects contributed significantly to the restoration by neostigmine of the neuromuscular transmission blocked by vecuronium.

Relative populations and toxin production by Aspergillus flavus and Fusarium verticillioides in artificially inoculated corn at various stages of development under field conditions

The presence, development and production of mycotoxins by Aspergillus flavus and Fusarium verticillioides were studied in corn ears under field conditions after artificial contamination of corn silks. The planted area was divided into five treatments: T1, inoculated with A.flavus solution containing 1 x 10(8) spores, ears covered; T2, inoculated with F. verticillioides solution containing 1 X 10(8) spores, ears covered; T3, inoculated with E verticillioides plus A. flavus solution containing 1 x 10(8) spores of each, ears covered; T4, sprayed with sterile phosphate-buffered saline, ears covered; TS, non-sprayed silks, uncovered ears. Soil and air samples were also collected and analysed for the occurrence of fungi. Water activity, relative air humidity, rainfall and temperature were determined to assess the correlation between abiotic factors and the presence of fungi in the samples. Contamination with the inoculated fungus predominated in T1 and T2. In the other treatments, F. verticillioides was the most frequently isolated contaminant irrespective of treatment. Considering the production of mycotoxins, a positive relation between the production of fumonisins B-1 and B-2 and the frequency of F. verticillioides was statistically verified in all treatments. (C) 2007 Society of Chemical Industry.

Evolutionary fuzzy clustering of relational data

This paper is concerned with the computational efficiency of fuzzy clustering algorithms when the data set to be clustered is described by a proximity matrix only (relational data) and the number of clusters must be automatically estimated from such data. A fuzzy variant of an evolutionary algorithm for relational clustering is derived and compared against two systematic (pseudo-exhaustive) approaches that can also be used to automatically estimate the number of fuzzy clusters in relational data. An extensive collection of experiments involving 18 artificial and two real data sets is reported and analyzed. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the efficiency of evolutionary fuzzy clustering

This paper tackles the problem of showing that evolutionary algorithms for fuzzy clustering can be more efficient than systematic (i.e. repetitive) approaches when the number of clusters in a data set is unknown. To do so, a fuzzy version of an Evolutionary Algorithm for Clustering (EAC) is introduced. A fuzzy cluster validity criterion and a fuzzy local search algorithm are used instead of their hard counterparts employed by EAC. Theoretical complexity analyses for both the systematic and evolutionary algorithms under interest are provided. Examples with computational experiments and statistical analyses are also presented.

Relative roles of biogenic emissions and Saharan dust as ice nuclei in the Amazon basin

Some aerosol particles, known as ice nuclei, can initiate ice formation in clouds, thereby influencing precipitation, cloud dynamics and the amount of incoming and outgoing solar radiation. In the absence of biomass burning, aerosol mass concentrations in the Amazon basin are low(1). Tropical forests emit primary biological particles directly into the atmosphere; secondary organic aerosols form from the emission and oxidation of biogenic gases(2). In addition, particles derived from biomass burning in central Africa, marine aerosols, and windblown dust from North Africa(3-5) often reach the central part of the Amazon basin during the wet season. The contribution of these aerosol sources to ice nucleation in the region is uncertain. Here we present observations of the concentration and elemental composition of ice nuclei in the Amazon basin during the wet season. Using transmission electron microscopy combined with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, we show that ice nuclei are primarily composed of carbonaceous material and dust. We show that biological particles dominate the carbonaceous fraction, whereas import of Saharan dust explains the intermittent appearance of dust-containing nuclei. We conclude that ice-nucleus concentration and abundance can be explained almost entirely by local emissions of biological particles supplemented by import of Saharan dust. Using a simple model, we tentatively suggest that the contribution of local biological particles to ice nucleation is increased at higher atmospheric temperatures, whereas the contribution of dust particles is increased at lower temperatures.

Relative entropy measures applied to healthy and pathological voice characterization

Nowadays, noninvasive methods of diagnosis have increased due to demands of the population that requires fast, simple and painless exams. These methods have become possible because of the growth of technology that provides the necessary means of collecting and processing signals. New methods of analysis have been developed to understand the complexity of voice signals, such as nonlinear dynamics aiming at the exploration of voice signals dynamic nature. The purpose of this paper is to characterize healthy and pathological voice signals with the aid of relative entropy measures. Phase space reconstruction technique is also used as a way to select interesting regions of the signals. Three groups of samples were used, one from healthy individuals and the other two from people with nodule in the vocal fold and Reinke`s edema. All of them are recordings of sustained vowel /a/ from Brazilian Portuguese. The paper shows that nonlinear dynamical methods seem to be a suitable technique for voice signal analysis, due to the chaotic component of the human voice. Relative entropy is well suited due to its sensibility to uncertainties, since the pathologies are characterized by an increase in the signal complexity and unpredictability. The results showed that the pathological groups had higher entropy values in accordance with other vocal acoustic parameters presented. This suggests that these techniques may improve and complement the recent voice analysis methods available for clinicians. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Grain size and heavy minerals of the Late Quaternary eolian sediments from the Imbituba-Jaguaruna coast, Southern Brazil: Depositional controls linked to relative sea-level changes

The stratigraphic subdivision and correlation of dune deposits is difficult, especially when age datings are not available. A better understanding of the controls on texture and composition of eolian sands is necessary to interpret ancient eolian sediments. The Imbituba-Jaguaruna coastal zone (Southern Brazil, 28 degrees-29 degrees S) stands out due to its four well-preserved Late Pleistocene (eolian generation 1) to Holocene eolian units (eolian generations 2, 3, and 4). In this study, we evaluate the grain-size and heavy-mineral characteristics of the Imbituba-Jaguartma eolian units through statistical analysis of hundreds of sediment samples. Grain-size parameters and heavy-mineral content allow us to distinguish the Pleistocene from the Holocene units. The grain size displays a pattern of fining and better sorting from generation 1 (older) to 4 (younger), whereas the content of mechanically stable (dense and hard) heavy minerals decreases from eolian generation 1 to 4. The variation in grain size and heavy-mineral content records shifts in the origin and balance (input versus output) of eolian sediment supply attributable mainly to relative sea-level changes. Dunefields submitted to relative sea-level lowstand conditions (eolian generation 1) are characterized by lower accumulation rates and intense post-depositional dissection by fluvial incision. Low accumulation rates favor deflation in the eolian system, which promotes concentration of denser and stable heavy minerals (increase of ZTR index) as well as coarsening of eolian sands. Dissection involves the selective removal of finer sediments and less dense heavy minerals to the coastal source area. Under a high rate of relative sea-level rise and transgression (eolian generation 2), coastal erosion prevents deflation through high input of sediments to the coastal eolian source. This condition favors dunefield growth. Coastal erosion feeds sand from local sources to the eolian system. including sands from previous dunefields (eolian generation 1) and from drowned incised valleys. Therefore, dunefields corresponding to transgressive phases inherit the grain-size and heavy-mineral characteristics of previous dunefields, leading to selective enrichment of finer sands and lighter minerals. Eolian generations 3 and 4 developed during a regressive-progradational phase (Holocene relative sea level highstand). The high rate of sediment supply during the highstand phase prevents deflation. The lack of coastal erosion favors sediment supply from distal sources (fluvial sediments rich in unstable heavy minerals). Thus, dunefields of transgressive and highstand systems tracts may be distinguished from dunefields of the lowstand systems tract through high rates of accumulation (low deflation) in the former. The sediment source of the transgressive dunefields (high input of previously deposited coastal sands) differs from that of the highstand dunefields (high input of fluvial distal sands). Based on this case study, we propose a general framework for the relation between relative sea level, sediment supply and the texture and mineralogy of eolian sediments deposited in siliciclastic wet coastal zones similar to the Imbituba-Jaguaruna coast (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.