86 resultados para Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average Model with exogenous inputs


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In many epidemiological studies it is common to resort to regression models relating incidence of a disease and its risk factors. The main goal of this paper is to consider inference on such models with error-prone observations and variances of the measurement errors changing across observations. We suppose that the observations follow a bivariate normal distribution and the measurement errors are normally distributed. Aggregate data allow the estimation of the error variances. Maximum likelihood estimates are computed numerically via the EM algorithm. Consistent estimation of the asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimators is also discussed. Test statistics are proposed for testing hypotheses of interest. Further, we implement a simple graphical device that enables an assessment of the model`s goodness of fit. Results of simulations concerning the properties of the test statistics are reported. The approach is illustrated with data from the WHO MONICA Project on cardiovascular disease. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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We analyse the finite-sample behaviour of two second-order bias-corrected alternatives to the maximum-likelihood estimator of the parameters in a multivariate normal regression model with general parametrization proposed by Patriota and Lemonte [A. G. Patriota and A. J. Lemonte, Bias correction in a multivariate regression model with genereal parameterization, Stat. Prob. Lett. 79 (2009), pp. 1655-1662]. The two finite-sample corrections we consider are the conventional second-order bias-corrected estimator and the bootstrap bias correction. We present the numerical results comparing the performance of these estimators. Our results reveal that analytical bias correction outperforms numerical bias corrections obtained from bootstrapping schemes.

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This paper derives the second-order biases Of maximum likelihood estimates from a multivariate normal model where the mean vector and the covariance matrix have parameters in common. We show that the second order bias can always be obtained by means of ordinary weighted least-squares regressions. We conduct simulation studies which indicate that the bias correction scheme yields nearly unbiased estimators. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Measurement error models often arise in epidemiological and clinical research. Usually, in this set up it is assumed that the latent variable has a normal distribution. However, the normality assumption may not be always correct. Skew-normal/independent distribution is a class of asymmetric thick-tailed distributions which includes the Skew-normal distribution as a special case. In this paper, we explore the use of skew-normal/independent distribution as a robust alternative to null intercept measurement error model under a Bayesian paradigm. We assume that the random errors and the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows jointly a skew-normal/independent distribution, providing an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of symmetric normal distribution in this type of model. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the skew-normal distribution, the skew-t distributions, the skew-slash distributions and the skew contaminated normal distributions. The methods developed is illustrated using a real data set from a dental clinical trial. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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A retrospective survey was designed to identify diagnostic subgroups and clinical factors associated with odontogenic pain and discomfort in dental urgency patients. A consecutive sample of 1,765 patients seeking treatment for dental pain at the Urgency Service of the Dental School of the Federal University of Goiás, Brazil, was selected. Inclusion criteria were pulpal or periapical pain that occurred before dental treatment (minimum 6 months after the last dental appointment), and the exclusion criteria were teeth with odontogenic developmental anomalies and missing information or incomplete records. Clinical and radiographic examinations were performed to assess clinical presentation of pain complaints including origin, duration, frequency and location of pain, palpation, percussion and vitality tests, radiographic features, endodontic diagnosis and characteristics of teeth. Chi-square test and multiple logistic regression were used to analyze association between pulpal and periapical pain and independent variables. The most frequent endodontic diagnosis of pulpal pain were symptomatic pulpitis (28.3%) and hyperreactive pulpalgia (14.4%), and the most frequent periapical pain was symptomatic apical periodontitis of infectious origin (26.4%). Regression analysis revealed that closed pulp chamber and caries were highly associated with pulpal pain and, conversely, open pulp chamber was associated with periapical pain (p<0.001). Endodontic diagnosis and local factors associated with pulpal and periapical pain suggest that the important clinical factor of pulpal pain was closed pulp chamber and caries, and of periapical pain was open pulp chamber.

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Being the commonest ocular disorder, dense cataracts disable fundoscopic examination and the diagnosis of retinal disorders, which dogs may be predisposed. The aim of this study was to compare the electroretinographic responses recorded according to the International Society for Clinical Electrophysiology of Vision human protocol to evaluate retinal function of diabetic and non diabetic dogs, both presenting mature or hypermature cataracts. Full-field electroretinogram was recorded from 66 dogs, with ages varying from 6 to 15 years old allocated into two groups: (1) CG, non diabetic cataractous dogs, and (2) DG, diabetic cataractous dogs. Mean peak-to-peak amplitude (microvolts) and b-wave implicit time (milliseconds) were determined for each of the five standard full-field ERG responses (rod response, maximal response, oscillatory potentials, single-flash cone response and 30 Hz flicker). Comparing CG to DG, ERGs recorded from diabetic dogs presented lower amplitude and prolonged b-wave implicit time in all ERG responses. Prolonged b-wave implicit time was statistically significant (p< 0.05) at 30 Hz flicker (24.0 ms versus 22.4 ms). These data suggests full-field ERG is capable to record sensible alterations, such as flicker's implicit time, being useful to investigate retinal dysfunction in diabetic dogs.

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Bovine semen experimentally contaminated with Leptospira santarosai serovar Guaricura was submitted to the modified EMJH medium with 5-fluorouracil (300mg/L) and nalidixic acid (20mg/L), named as "selective medium" and using the serial dilution technique, in order to evaluate the percentage of recovery of the added microorganism. The selective EMJH medium was found with higher percentage of recovery of leptospiras and minor losses of samples due to contamination with opportunistic microorganisms than the non-selective EMJH medium: 151/376 (40.0%) of positive growth; and 38/376 (10.0%) contamination and 58/376 (15%) and 129/376 (34.0%), respectively. These results were statistically significant (p<0. 0001; Fisher). Differences were found when the frequencies of positive leptospires recovery have been compared in the serial dilution technique (10-1 to 10-4) between the selective and non-selective media at different dilution factors. At 1/10th dilution the percentages found were (0%, 0/80) and (38%, 30/80), at 1/100th dilution, (3%, 2/80) and (49%, 39/80) and at 1/1,000th dilution, (25%, 20/80) and (50%, 40/80), respectively. The percentage of recovery of leptospires was found to be directly proportional to the dilution used. The methodology of the serial dilution technique (setting at least three dilutions) and the use of selective EMJH medium have been found to be efficient for the isolation of leptospires from the bovine semen samples.

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The effects of body weight or age and dietary digestible lysine and metabolizable energy on apparent digestibility of energy and dry matter were evaluated in piglets after weaning. The animals were weaned at 21 days of age and distributed in two groups: 8.68 ± 0.76 kg at 28 days of age (weaned 7 days earlier); and 12.73 ± 0.99 kg at 35 days of age (weaned 14 days earlier). The pigs were allotted in digestibility cages in a completely randomized block design with the following factorial arrangements: 2 × 4 composed of two weight categories and four levels of digestible lysine (1.222; 1.305; 1.390 and 1.497%); and 2 × 3 composed of two weight categories and three levels of metabolizable energy (3,510; 3,700 and 3,830 kcal/kg rations). Digestible lysine was evaluated in six replications and metabolizable energy in eight replications and each animal constituted an experimental unit. Piglets with higher body weight and age were more efficient in nitrogen retention and energetic balance, compared to lighter and younger piglets, particularly those given lower concentration of lysine in the diet. The energy increase favored nitrogen retention by the heavier and older piglets. However, coefficients of dry matter and energy apparent digestibility did not differ among weight categories. Older and heavier piglets were more efficient in nitrogen retention, although this efficacy depended on concentration of the energy in the diet. This better use of protein and energy suggest differences on nutritional requirements.

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Purpose: Potentially Inappropriate Medications (PIM) use in elderly people may be responsible for the development of Adverse Drug Reaction (ADR) which, when severe, leads to hospital admissions. Objectives: to estimate the prevalence of elderly who had used PIM before being admitted to hospital and to identify the risk factors and the hospitalizations related to ADR arising from PIM. Methods: A descriptive and cross-sectional study was performed in the internal medicine ward of a teaching hospital (Brazil), in 2008. With the aid of a validated form, patients aged >= 60 years, with length of hospital stay >= 24 hours, were interviewed about drugs taken prior to the hospital admission and the complaints/reasons for hospitalization. Results: 19.1% (59/308) of older patients had taken PIM before hospital admission and in 4.9%; there were a causal relation between the PIM taken and the complaint reported. PIM responsible for admissions were: amiodarone, amitriptyline, cimetidine, clonidine, diazepam, digoxin, estrogen, fluoxetine, lorazepam, short-acting nifedipine and propranolol. 47.0% of the clinical manifestations of PIM-related ADR were: dizziness, fatigue, digoxin toxicity and erythema. Only polypharmacy was detected as a risk factor for the occurrence of ADR of PIM (p = 0.02). Conclusion: PIM use in elderly people is not a risk factor for ADR-related hospital admission. Probably, severe ADR, which lead to hospitalizations of older people, can be explained by idiosyncratic response or the predisposition of these patients to develop adverse drug events, whether or not drugs are classed as PIM.

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Background: It is recognized that the growing epidemic of metabolic syndrome is related to dietary and lifestyle changes. Objective: The purpose of this study was to evaluate short-term application of nutritional counseling in women with metabolic syndrome. Methods: This follow-up study was conducted from September to November 2008 with thirty three women >= 35 years old screened clinically for nutritional counseling. Dietary intake was reported, and biochemical and body composition measures were taken at baseline and after three months of follow-up. Results: Of the 33 women evaluated, 29 patients completed the study. The prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and obesity was high at 38%, 72.4%, 55.2%, and 75.8%, respectively. At the end of three-months of follow-up, a significant decline in body mass index, waist circumference, triceps skinfold, and triglycerides was observed, as was an increase in calcium and vitamin D intake. The multiple regression analysis showed that changes in body mass index, triceps skinfold, waist circumference and triglyceride levels after nutritional intervention were positively associated with changes in anthropometric (loss of body weight) and biochemical (decrease of TG/HDL-c ratio) parameters. Moreover, waist circumference changes were negatively associated with changes in calcium and vitamin D intake. Conclusion: Short-term nutritional counseling improved some factors of metabolic syndrome. Moreover, the increases in calcium and vitamin D consumption can be associated with the improvement in markers of metabolic syndrome.

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Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) production is regulated by growth factors and inflammatory cytokines, and VEGF plays a role in migraine. We examined for the first time whether three functional polymorphisms in the promoter region of VEGF gene (C(-2578)A, G(-1154A), and G(-634C)) and VEGF haplotypes are associated with migraine. We studied 114 healthy women without migraine and 175 women with migraine (129 without aura, and 46 with aura). We found no differences in the distributions of VEGF genotypes and alleles (p > 0.05). However, the CAC haplotype was more frequent in controls than in migraine patients, and the AGC haplotype was more frequent in patients with migraine with aura than in controls (both p < 0.05). These findings suggest that VEGF haplotypes affect susceptibility to migraine.

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Objective: In this study we evaluated the ablation rate of superficial and deep dentin irradiated with different Er:YAG laser energy levels, and observed the micromorphological aspects of the lased substrates with a scanning electron microscope (SEM). Background Data: Little is known about the effect of Er: YAG laser irradiation on different dentin depths. Materials and Methods: Sixty molar crowns were bisected, providing 120 specimens, which were randomly assigned into two groups ( superficial or deep dentin), and later into five subgroups (160, 200, 260, 300, or 360 mJ). Initial masses of the specimens were obtained. After laser irradiation, the final masses were obtained and mass losses were calculated followed by the preparation of specimens for SEM examination. Mass-loss values were subjected to two-way ANOVA and Fisher's least significant difference multiple-comparison tests (p < 0.05). Results: There was no difference between superficial and deep dentin. A significant and gradual increase in the mass-loss values was reached when energies were raised, regardless of the dentin depth. The energy level of 360 mJ showed the highest values and was statistically significantly different from the other energy levels. The SEM images showed that deep dentin was more selectively ablated, especially intertubular dentin, promoting tubule protrusion. At 360 mJ the micromorphological features were similar for both dentin depths. Conclusion: The ablation rate did not depend on the depth of the dentin, and an energy level lower than 360 mJ is recommended to ablate both superficial and deep dentin effectively without causing tissue damage.

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Background: The metastatic disease rather than the primary tumor itself is responsible for death in most solid tumors, including breast cancer. The role of matrix metalloproteinases ( MMPs), tissue inhibitors of MMPs (TIMPs) and Reversion-inducing cysteine-rich protein with Kazal motifs ( RECK) in the metastatic process has previously been established. However, in all published studies only a limited number of MMPs/MMP inhibitors was analyzed in a limited number of cell lines. Here, we propose a more comprehensive approach by analyzing the expression levels of several MMPs (MMP-2, MMP-9 and MMP-14) and MMP inhibitors (TIMP-1, TIMP-2 and RECK) in different models ( five human breast cancer cell lines, 72 primary breast tumors and 30 adjacent normal tissues). Methods: We analyzed the expression levels of MMP-2, MMP-9 and MMP-14 and their inhibitors (TIMP-1, TIMP-2 and RECK) by quantitative RT-PCR (qRT-PCR) in five human breast cancer cell lines presenting increased invasiveness and metastatic potential, 72 primary breast tumors and 30 adjacent normal tissues. Moreover, the role of cell-extracellular matrix elements interactions in the regulation of expression and activity of MMPs and their inhibitors was analyzed by culturing these cell lines on plastic or on artificial ECM (Matrigel). Results: The results demonstrated that MMPs mRNA expression levels displayed a positive and statistically significant correlation with the transcriptional expression levels of their inhibitors both in the cell line models and in the tumor tissue samples. Furthermore, the expression of all MMP inhibitors was modulated by cell-Matrigel contact only in highly invasive and metastatic cell lines. The enzyme/inhibitor balance at the transcriptional level significantly favors the enzyme which is more evident in tumor than in adjacent non-tumor tissue samples. Conclusion: Our results suggest that the expression of MMPs and their inhibitors, at least at the transcriptional level, might be regulated by common factors and signaling pathways. Therefore, the multi-factorial analysis of these molecules could provide new and independent prognostic information contributing to the determination of more adequate therapy strategies for each patient.`

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Study design: Controlled clinical test. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to assess the effects of quadriceps and anterior tibial muscles electrical stimulation on the feet and ankles of patients with spinal cord injuries and to compare them with able-bodied individuals and a group of patients who did not undergo neuromuscular electrical stimulation (NMES). Setting: This study was conducted at the Hospital das Clinicas of Unicamp, Campinas, Sao Paulo, Brazil. Methods: Between January and April 2008, 30 patients at the spinal cord injury ambulatory clinic who underwent NMES (group A) were submitted to a clinical and radiographic assessment of their feet and ankles and compared with a spinal cord injury group (group B) who did not undergo NMES and a group of able-bodied individuals (group C). The Kruskal-Wallis test was used to compare all the three groups, and between-group differences (P < 0.05) were investigated with the Mann-Whitney test. Results: The mean mobility of the midfoot and ankle subtalar joint was significantly higher in group C than in groups A and B. Differences in the mean measurements of the profiles of the talocalcaneal and the talus-first metatarsal angles were statistically significant for group A vs the other groups (P = 0.0020, 0.0024, respectively). Foot deformities were found in groups including claw toes and flat feet (group A) and grade I ulcers on the lateral malleolus and calcaneus (group B). Conclusion: Partial-load NMES maintains the feet and ankles in a planted and adequate walking position in patients with spinal cord injuries, a favorable result of new technologies that allows these patients to reacquire independent walking capacity. Spinal Cord (2010) 48, 881-885; doi:10.1038/sc.2010.50; published online 18 May 2010