Fuzzy risk index for power transformer failures due to external short-circuits

A novel methodology to assess the risk of power transformer failures caused by external faults, such as short-circuit, taking the paper insulation condition into account, is presented. The risk index is obtained by contrasting the insulation paper condition with the probability that the transformer withstands the short-circuit current flowing along the winding during an external fault. In order to assess the risk, this probability and the value of the degree of polymerization of the insulating paper are regarded as inputs of a type-2 fuzzy logic system (T2-FLS), which computes the fuzzy risk level. A Monte Carlo simulation has been used to find the survival function of the currents flowing through the transformer winding during a single-phase or a three-phase short-circuit. The Roy Billinton Test System and a real power system have been used to test the results. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The potential for increasing rubber production by matching tapping intensity to leaf area index

Understanding resource capture can help design appropriate species combinations, planting designs and management. Leaf area index (LAI) and its longevity are the most important factors defining dry matter production and thus growth and productivity. The ecophysiological modifications and yield of rubber (Hevea spp.) in an agroforestry system (AFS) with beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) were studied. The experiment was established in Southeast-Brazil, with three rubber cultivars: IAN 3087, RRIM 600 and RRIM 527. The AFS comprised double rows of rubber trees along with beans sown in autumn and winter seasons in 1999. There was about 50% higher rubber yield per tree in the AFS than the rubber monoculture. Trees within the AFS responded to higher solar radiation availability with higher LAI and total foliage area, allowing its greater interception. All three cultivars had higher LAI in the AFS than monoculture, reaching maximum values in the AFS between April and May of 3.17 for RRIM 527; 2.83 for RRIM 600 and 2.28 for IAN 3087. The maximum LAI values for monocrop rubber trees were: 2.65, 2.62 and 1.99, respectively, for each cultivar. Rubber production and LAI were positively correlated in both the AFS and monoculture but leaf fall of rubber trees in the AFS was delayed and total phytomass was larger. It is suggested that trees in the AFS were under exploited and could yield more without compromising their life cycle if the tapping system was intensified. This shows how knowledge of LAI can be used to manage tapping intensity in the field, leading to higher rubber yield.

Spatial Modeling of a Soil Fertility Index using Visible-Near-Infrared Spectra and Terrain Attributes

Our objective was to develop a methodology to predict soil fertility using visible near-infrared (vis-NIR) diffuse reflectance spectra and terrain attributes derived from a digital elevation model (DEM). Specifically, our aims were to: (i) assemble a minimum data set to develop a soil fertility index for sugarcane (Sarcharum officinarum L.) (SFI-SC) for biofuel production in tropical soils; (ii) construct a model to predict the SFI-SC using soil vis-NIR spectra and terrain attributes; and (iii) produce a soil fertility map for our study area and assess it by comparing it with a green vegetation index (GVI). The study area was 185 ha located in sao Paulo State, Brazil. In total, 184 soil samples were collected and analyzed for a range of soil chemical and physical properties. Their vis-NIR spectra were collected from 400 to 2500 nm. The Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission 3-arcsec (90-m resolution) DEM of the area was used to derive 17 terrain attributes. A minimum data set of soil properties was selected to develop the SFI-SC. The SFI-SC consisted of three classes: Class 1, the highly fertile soils; Class 2, the fertile soils; and Class 3, the least fertile soils. It was derived heuristically with conditionals and using expert knowledge. The index was modeled with the spectra and terrain data using cross-validated decision trees. The cross-validation of the model correctly predicted Class 1 in 75% of cases, Class 2 in 61%, and Class 3 in 65%. A fertility map was derived for the study area and compared with a map of the GVI. Our approach offers a methodology that incorporates expert knowledge to derive the SFI-SC and uses a versatile spectro-spatial methodology that may be implemented for rapid and accurate determination of soil fertility and better exploration of areas suitable for production.

Leaf area index estimation with MODIS reflectance time series and model inversion during full rotations of Eucalyptus plantations

The leaf area index (LAI) of fast-growing Eucalyptus plantations is highly dynamic both seasonally and interannually, and is spatially variable depending on pedo-climatic conditions. LAI is very important in determining the carbon and water balance of a stand, but is difficult to measure during a complete stand rotation and at large scales. Remote-sensing methods allowing the retrieval of LAI time series with accuracy and precision are therefore necessary. Here, we tested two methods for LAI estimation from MODIS 250m resolution red and near-infrared (NIR) reflectance time series. The first method involved the inversion of a coupled model of leaf reflectance and transmittance (PROSPECT4), soil reflectance (SOILSPECT) and canopy radiative transfer (4SAIL2). Model parameters other than the LAI were either fixed to measured constant values, or allowed to vary seasonally and/or with stand age according to trends observed in field measurements. The LAI was assumed to vary throughout the rotation following a series of alternately increasing and decreasing sigmoid curves. The parameters of each sigmoid curve that allowed the best fit of simulated canopy reflectance to MODIS red and NIR reflectance data were obtained by minimization techniques. The second method was based on a linear relationship between the LAI and values of the GEneralized Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (GESAVI), which was calibrated using destructive LAI measurements made at two seasons, on Eucalyptus stands of different ages and productivity levels. The ability of each approach to reproduce field-measured LAI values was assessed, and uncertainty on results and parameter sensitivities were examined. Both methods offered a good fit between measured and estimated LAI (R(2) = 0.80 and R(2) = 0.62 for model inversion and GESAVI-based methods, respectively), but the GESAVI-based method overestimated the LAI at young ages. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relating MODIS vegetation index time-series with structure, light absorption and stem production of fast-growing Eucalyptus plantations

By allowing the estimation of forest structural and biophysical characteristics at different temporal and spatial scales, remote sensing may contribute to our understanding and monitoring of planted forests. Here, we studied 9-year time-series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on a network of 16 stands in fast-growing Eucalyptus plantations in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. We aimed to examine the relationships between NDVI time-series spanning entire rotations and stand structural characteristics (volume, dominant height, mean annual increment) in these simple forest ecosystems. Our second objective was to examine spatial and temporal variations of light use efficiency for wood production, by comparing time-series of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (APAR) with inventory data. Relationships were calibrated between the NDVI and the fractions of intercepted diffuse and direct radiation, using hemispherical photographs taken on the studied stands at two seasons. APAR was calculated from the NDVI time-series using these relationships. Stem volume and dominant height were strongly correlated with summed NDVI values between planting date and inventory date. Stand productivity was correlated with mean NDVI values. APAR during the first 2 years of growth was variable between stands and was well correlated with stem wood production (r(2) = 0.78). In contrast, APAR during the following years was less variable and not significantly correlated with stem biomass increments. Production of wood per unit of absorbed light varied with stand age and with site index. In our study, a better site index was accompanied both by increased APAR during the first 2 years of growth and by higher light use efficiency for stem wood production during the whole rotation. Implications for simple process-based modelling are discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A correct enthalpy relationship as thermal comfort index for livestock

Researchers working with thermal comfort have been using enthalpy to measure thermal energy inside rural facilities, establishing indicator values for many situations of thermal comfort and heat stress. This variable turned out to be helpful in analyzing thermal exchange in livestock systems. The animals are exposed to an environment which is decisive for the thermoregulatory process, and, consequently, the reactions reflect states of thermal comfort or heat stress, the last being responsable for problems of sanity, behavior and productivity. There are researchers using enthalpy as a qualitative indicator of thermal environment of livestock such as poultry, cattle and hogs in tropical regions. This preliminary work intends to check different enthalpy equations using information from classical thermodynamics, and proposes a direct equation as thermal comfort index for livestock systems.

Increased MMA concentration and body mass index are associated with spontaneous abortion in Brazilian women A pilot study

Background: The pathophysiology of spontaneous abortion is complex and may involve the interaction of genetic and environmental factors. We evaluated the predictors of spontaneous abortion in Brazilian pregnant women. The effects of age, gestational age. body mass index (BMI), cigarette smoking, alcohol ingestion, use of multivitamins and concentrations of vitamins (folate, cobalamin and vitamin 136) and vitamin-dependent metabolites were analyzed. Methods: Study population included 100 healthy women that attended pre-natal care in 2 health centers of Sao Paulo, Brazil, and in whom pregnancy outcome was known. Folate and cobalamin status was measured in blood specimens collected between 4 and 16 weeks. The genotypes for 8 gene polymorphisms were evaluated by PCR-RFLP. Results: Eighty-eight women had normal pregnancy outcome (Group 1), while 12 experienced a miscarriage after blood collection (Group 2). Increased methylmalonic acid (MMA) concentrations were found in Group 2 (median [25th-75th percentile]=274 [149-425] nmol/l) relative to Group 1 (138 [98-185]) (P<0.01). No differences between the groups were observed for serum cobalamin, serum or red cell folate, and serum total homocysteine or allele frequencies for 8 polymorphisms. In a conditional logistic regression analysis including age, gestational age, serum creatinine, MMA, cystathionine, body mass index (BMI), cigarette smoking, alcohol ingestion and use of multivitamins the risk of abortion was significantly associated with MMA (OR [95% CI] = 3.80 [1.36, 10.62] per quartile increase in MMA), BMI (OR [95% CI] = 5.49 [1.29,23.39] per quartile) and gestational age (OR [95% CI] = 0.10 [0.01, 0.77] per increase of interval in gestational age). Conclusions: Increased serum MMA and BMI concentrations are associated with spontaneous abortion in Brazilian women. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of AST platelet ratio index (APRI Score) as an alternative to liver biopsy for treatment indication in chronic hepatitis C

Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is one of the most important causes of chronic liver disease in the world, potentially resulting in cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and the need for liver transplantation. Liver biopsy is currently performed before therapy indication. Although, it is the golden standard there are many reasons to avoid or delay the procedure. APRI Score is an easy, low cost and practice alternative method which was described as an alternative for assessing structural changes in chronic hepatitis C (CHC). The rationale of this study was to observe the accuracy of APRI Score in comparison to liver biopsy in 400 patients divided into two groups of 200 carriers (Validation and Experimental groups respectively) selected at random or according to liver fibrosis staging (METAVIR). The ROC curves showed a concordance among these two methods of 92% and 88.5% when 1.05 was the cut off (F3 and F4), and 87% and 83%, on 0.75 cut offs (F2-F4). The discordance in advanced fibrosis staging (F3 and F4) was only 16 (8%) and 22 (11%) out of 200 patients in the experimental and validation groups, respectively. In 26 (13%) out of 200 patients in the experimental group and 34 (17%) out of 200 patients in the validation group, there was discordance between APRI Score and liver biopsy in moderate and advanced fibrosis (F2-F4). In conclusion APRI is a serological marker that has satisfactory sensitivity and specificity together with a high predictive value and it can be useful either in the absence of a biopsy or to reduce the frequency with which biopsies need to be carried out to monitor the evolution of chronic hepatitis C and the right moment for treatment indication.

Laparoscopic treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus for patients with a body mass index less than 35

Background Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a common disease with numerous complications. Bariatric surgery is an efficient procedure for controlling T2DM in morbidly obese patients. In T2DM, the incretin effect is either greatly impaired or absent. This study aimed to evaluate the preliminary results from interposing a segment of ileum into the proximal jejunum associated with a sleeve or diverted sleeve gastrectomy to control T2DM in patients with a body mass index (BMI) less than 35 kg/m(2). Methods For this study, 39 patients (16 women and 23 men) underwent two laparoscopic procedures comprising different combinations of ileal interposition into the proximal jejunum via a sleeve or diverted sleeve gastrectomy. The mean age of these patients was 50.3 years (range, 36-66 years). The mean BMI was 30.1 kg/m(2) (range, 23.4-34.9 kg/m(2)). All the patients had a diagnosis of T2DM that had persisted for at least 3 years and evidence of stable treatment with oral hypoglycemic agents or insulin for at least 12 months. The mean duration of T2DM was 9.3 years (range, 3-22 years). Results The mean operative time was 185 min, and the median hospital stay was 4.3 days. Four major complications occurred in the short term (30-days), and the mortality rate was 2.6%. The mean postoperative follow-up period was 7 months (range, 4-16 months), and the mean percentage of weight loss was 22%. The mean postoperative BMI was 24.9 kg/m(2) (range, 18.9-31.7 kg/m2). An adequate glycemic control was achieved for 86.9% of the patients, and 13.1% had important improvement. The patients whose glycemia was not normalized were using a single oral hypoglycemic agent. No patient needed insulin therapy postoperatively. All the patients except experienced normalization of their cholesterol levels. Targeted triglycerides levels were achieved by 71% of the patients, and hypertension was controlled for 95.8%. Conclusions The laparoscopic ileal interposition via either a sleeve gastrectomy or diverted sleeve gastrectomy seems to be a promising procedure for the control of T2DM and the metabolic syndrome. A longer follow-up period is needed.

Correlation between the Body Mass Index (BMI) of Pregnant Women and the Development of Hypotension after Spinal Anesthesia for Cesarean Section

Nani FS, Torres MLA - Correlation between the Body Mass Index (BMI) of Pregnant Women and the Development of Hypotension after Spinal Anesthesia for Cesarean Section. Background and objectives: Very few publications correlate hypotension in obese pregnant women, and especially morbidly obese, after spinal anesthesia for cesarean section. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the incidence of hypotension according to the BMI. Methods: Forty-nine patients with pregestational BMI below 25 kg.m(-2) were included in the Eutrophia group, and 51 patients with BMI >= 25 kg.m(-2) were included in the Overweight group. After spinal anesthesia, blood pressure, volume of crystalloid infused, and dose of vasopressors used until delivery were recorded. A fall in systolic blood pressure below 100 mmHg or 10% reduction of the initial systolic blood pressure (SBP) was considered as hypotension and it was corrected by the administration of vasopressors. Results: Episodes of hypotension were fewer in the Eutrophia group (5.89 +/- 0.53 vs. 7.80 +/- 0.66, p = 0.027), as well as the amount of crystalloid administered (1,298 +/- 413.6 mL vs. 1,539 +/- 460.0 mL; p = 0.007), and use of vasopressors (5.87 +/- 3.45 bolus vs. 7.70 +/- 4.46 bolus; p = 0.023). As for associated diseases, we observed higher incidence of diabetes among obese pregnant women (29.41% vs. 9.76%, RR 1.60, 95%CI: 1.15-2.22, p = 0.036), however, differences in the incidence of pregnancy-induced hypertension (PIN) were not observe between both groups (overweight: 21.57%, normal weight: 12.20%, RR 1.30, 95%CI: 0.88-1.94, p = 0.28). Conclusions: In the study sample, pregestational BMI >= 25 kg.m(-2) was a risk factor for hypotension after spinal anesthesia in patients undergoing cesarean section. The same group of patients required higher doses of vasopressors. Those results indicate that the anesthetic techniques in those patients should be improved to reduce the consequences of post-spinal anesthesia hypotension, both in pregnant women and fetuses.

A Comparison Between Pulse Pressure Variation and Right End Diastolic Volume Index as Guides to Resuscitation in a Model of Hemorrhagic Shock in Pigs

Background: Different hemodynamic parameters including static indicators of cardiac preload as right ventricular end-diastolic volume index (RVEDVI) and dynamic parameters as pulse pressure variation (PPV) have been used in the decision-making process regarding volume expansion in critically ill patients. The objective of this study was to compare fluid resuscitation guided by either PPV or RVEDVI after experimentally induced hemorrhagic shock. Methods: Twenty-six anesthetized and mechanically ventilated pigs were allocated into control (group I), PPV (group II), or RVEDVI (group III) group. Hemorrhagic shock was induced by blood withdrawal to target mean arterial pressure of 40 mm Hg, maintained for 60 minutes. Parameters were measured at baseline, time of shock, 60 minutes after shock, immediately after resuscitation with hydroxyethyl starch 6% (130/0.4), 1 hour and 2 hours thereafter. The endpoint of fluid resuscitation was determined as the baseline values of PPV and RVEDVI. Statistical analysis of data was based on analysis of variance for repeated measures followed by the Bonferroni test (p < 0.05). Results: Volume and time to resuscitation were higher in group III than in group II (group III = 1,305 +/- 331 mL and group II = 965 +/- 245 mL, p < 0.05; and group III = 24.8 +/- 4.7 minutes and group II = 8.8 +/- 1.3 minutes, p < 0.05, respectively). All static and dynamic parameters and biomarkers of tissue oxygenation were affected by hemorrhagic shock and nearly all parameters were restored after resuscitation in both groups. Conclusion: In the proposed model of hemorrhagic shock, resuscitation to the established endpoints was achieved within a smaller amount of time and with less volume when guided by PPV than when guided by pulmonary artery catheter-derived RVEDVI.

The relationship between body mass index and the variation in plasma levels of triglycerides after short-term red wine consumption

BACKGROUND: Alcoholic beverages may have protective cardiovascular effects but are known to increase the plasma levels of triglycerides (TG). Both TG and the ratio of TO to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-cholesterol) are associated with increased cardiovascular risk. OBJECTIVES: To determine the predictive factors for variations in plasma levels of TO and the TG/HDL-cholesterol ratio in patients after they had consumed red wine for 14 days. METHODS: Forty-two subjects (64% men, 46 +/- 9 years, baseline body mass index [BMI] 25.13 +/- 2.76 kg/m(2)) were given red wine (12% or 12.2% alc/vol, 250 mL/day with meals). Plasma concentration of lipids and glucose were measured before and after red wine consumption. Blood was collected after 12 hours of fast and alcohol abstention. RESULTS: Red wine increased plasma levels of TO from 105 +/- 42 mg/dL to 120 +/- 56 mg/dL (P = .001) and the TG/HDL-cholesterol ratio from 2.16 +/- 1.10 to 2.50 +/- 1.66 (P = .014). In a multivariate linear regression model that included age, baseline BMI, blood pressure, lipids, and glucose, only BMI was independently predictive of the variation in plasma TO after red wine (beta coefficient 0.592, P < .001). BMI also predicted the variation in TG/HDL-cholesterol ratio (beta coefficient 0.505, P = .001, adjusted model). When individuals were divided into three categories, according to their BMI, the average percentage variation in TG after red wine was -4%, 17%, and 33% in the lower (19.60-24.45 kg/m(2)), intermediate, and greater (26.30-30.44 kg/m(2)) tertiles, respectively (P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with higher BMI, although nonobese, might be at greater risk for elevation in plasma TO levels and the TG/HDL-cholesterol ratio after short-term red wine consumption. (C) 2011 National Lipid Association. All rights reserved.

European ancestry and polymorphisms in DNA repair genes modify the risk of melanoma: A case-control study in a high UV index region in Brazil

Background: UV radiation is the major environmental factor related to development of cutaneous melanoma. Besides sun exposure and the influence of latitude, some host characteristics such as skin phototype and hair and eye color are also risk factors for melanoma. Polymorphisms in DNA repair genes could be good candidates for susceptibility genes, mainly in geographical regions exposed to high solar radiation. Objective: Evaluate the role of host characteristic.; and DNA repair polymorphism in melanoma risk in Brazil. Methods: We carried out a hospital-based case-control study in Brazil to evaluate the contribution of host factors and polymorphisms in DNA repair to melanoma risk. A total of 412 patients (202 with melanoma and 210 controls) were analyzed regarding host characteristics for melanoma risk as well as for 11 polymorphisms in DNA repair genes. Results: We found an association of host characteristics with melanoma development, such as eye and hair color, fair skin, history of pigmented lesions removed, sunburns in childhood and adolescence, and also European ancestry. Regarding DNA repair gene polymorphisms, we found protection for the XPG 1104 His/His genotype (OR 0.32; 95% CI 0.13-0.75), and increased risk for three polymorphisms in the XPC gene (PAT+; IV-6A and 939Gln), which represent a haplotype for XPC. Melanoma risk was higher in individuals carrying the complete XPC haplotype than each individual polymorphism (OR 3.64; 95% CI 1.77-7.48). Conclusions: Our data indicate that the host factors European ancestry and XPC polymorphisms contributed to melanoma risk in a region exposed to high sun radiation. (C) 2011 Japanese Society for Investigative Dermatology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes in Amniotic Fluid Index after Maternal Oral Hydration in Pregnancies with Fetal Gastroschisis: Initial Observations

Objective: To evaluate the effect of maternal oral hydration on amniotic fluid index (AFI) in pregnancies with fetal gastroschisis. Methods: AFI was evaluated at 24-hour intervals, during 4 consecutive days, under a continuous maternal oral water hydration regimen, in singleton pregnancies with isolated fetal gastroschisis. Results: Nine pregnancies were examined at a mean gestational age of 31.6 weeks (+/-1.4) and mean maternal daily oral water intake was 3,437 (+/-810) ml. Mean AFI on days 0-3 were 13.2 (+/-2.9), 14.8 (+/-3.3), 14.5 (+/-3.1) and 14.8 (+/-2.6), respectively. AFI on day 0 was significantly lower compared to all the other 3 days (p = 0.01 and 0.02). Significant correlation was found in relative difference in AFI between day 0 and day 1 and gestational age (r = -0.67, p = 0.05) and the amount of water intake in the previous 24 h (r = 0.76, p = 0.02). Conclusion: Maternal oral water hydration significantly increases AFI in pregnancies with isolated fetal gastroschisis. Copyright (C) 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel

Body mass index and risk of head and neck cancer in a pooled analysis of case-control studies in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) Consortium

Methods We pooled data from 17 case-control studies including 12 716 cases and the 17 438 controls. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for associations between body mass index (BMI) at different ages and HNC risk, adjusted for age, sex, centre, race, education, tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption. Results Adjusted ORs (95% CIs) were elevated for people with BMI at reference (date of diagnosis for cases and date of selection for controls) < 18.5 kg/m(2) (2.13, 1.75-2.58) and reduced for BMI > 25.0-30.0 kg/m(2) (0.52, 0.44-0.60) and BMI >= 30 kg/m(2) (0.43, 0.33-0.57), compared with BMI > 18.5-25.0 kg/m(2). These associations did not differ by age, sex, tumour site or control source. Although the increased risk among people with BMI < 18.5 kg/m(2) was not modified by tobacco smoking or alcohol drinking, the inverse association for people with BMI > 25 kg/m(2) was present only in smokers and drinkers. Conclusions In our large pooled analysis, leanness was associated with increased HNC risk regardless of smoking and drinking status, although reverse causality cannot be excluded. The reduced risk among overweight or obese people may indicate body size is a modifier of the risk associated with smoking and drinking. Further clarification may be provided by analyses of prospective cohort and mechanistic studies.