28 resultados para Statistics and probability


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The phylogeography of South American lineages is a topic of heated debate. Although a single process is unlikely to describe entire ecosystems, related species, which incur similar habitat limitations, can inform the history for a subsection of assemblages. We compared the phylogeographic patterns of the cytochrome oxidase I marker from Anopheles triannulatus (N = 72) and previous results for A. darlingi (N = 126) in a broad portion of their South American distributions. Both species share similar population subdivisions, with aggregations northeast of the Amazon River, in southern coastal Brazil and 2 regions in central Brazil. The average (ST) between these groups was 0.39 for A. triannulatus. Populations northeast of the Amazon and in southeastern Brazil are generally reciprocally monophyletic to the remaining groups. Based on these initial analyses, we constructed the a priori hypothesis that the Amazon and regions of high declivity pose geographic barriers to dispersal in these taxa. Mantel tests confirmed that these areas block gene flow for more than 1000 km for both species. The efficacy of these impediments was tested using landscape genetics, which could not reject our a priori hypothesis but did reject simpler scenarios. Results form summary statistics and phylogenetics suggest that both lineages originated in central Amazonia (south of the Amazon River) during the late Pleistocene (579 000 years ago) and that they followed the same paths of expansion into their contemporary distributions. These results may have implications for other species sharing similar ecological limitations but probably are not applicable as a general paradigm of Neotropical biogeography.

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We analyzed Brazil`s efforts in reducing child mortality, improving maternal and child health, and reducing socioeconomic and regional inequalities from 1990 through 2007. We compiled and reanalyzed data from several sources, including vital statistics and population-based surveys. We also explored the roles of broad socioeconomic and demographic changes and the introduction of health sector and other reform measures in explaining the improvements observed. Our findings provide compelling evidence that pro-active measures to reduce health disparities accompanied by socioeconomic progress can result in measurable improvements in the health of children and mothers in a relatively short interval. Our analysis of Brazil`s successes and remaining challenges to reach and surpass Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5 can provide important lessons for other low- and middle-income countries. (Am J Public Health. 2010;100:1877-1889. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2010.196816)

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Considering the Wald, score, and likelihood ratio asymptotic test statistics, we analyze a multivariate null intercept errors-in-variables regression model, where the explanatory and the response variables are subject to measurement errors, and a possible structure of dependency between the measurements taken within the same individual are incorporated, representing a longitudinal structure. This model was proposed by Aoki et al. (2003b) and analyzed under the bayesian approach. In this article, considering the classical approach, we analyze asymptotic test statistics and present a simulation study to compare the behavior of the three test statistics for different sample sizes, parameter values and nominal levels of the test. Also, closed form expressions for the score function and the Fisher information matrix are presented. We consider two real numerical illustrations, the odontological data set from Hadgu and Koch (1999), and a quality control data set.

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The modeling and analysis of lifetime data is an important aspect of statistical work in a wide variety of scientific and technological fields. Good (1953) introduced a probability distribution which is commonly used in the analysis of lifetime data. For the first time, based on this distribution, we propose the so-called exponentiated generalized inverse Gaussian distribution, which extends the exponentiated standard gamma distribution (Nadarajah and Kotz, 2006). Various structural properties of the new distribution are derived, including expansions for its moments, moment generating function, moments of the order statistics, and so forth. We discuss maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters. The usefulness of the new model is illustrated by means of a real data set. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Birnbaum and Saunders (1969a) introduced a probability distribution which is commonly used in reliability studies For the first time based on this distribution the so-called beta-Birnbaum-Saunders distribution is proposed for fatigue life modeling Various properties of the new model including expansions for the moments moment generating function mean deviations density function of the order statistics and their moments are derived We discuss maximum likelihood estimation of the model s parameters The superiority of the new model is illustrated by means of three failure real data sets (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

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The Laplace distribution is one of the earliest distributions in probability theory. For the first time, based on this distribution, we propose the so-called beta Laplace distribution, which extends the Laplace distribution. Various structural properties of the new distribution are derived, including expansions for its moments, moment generating function, moments of the order statistics, and so forth. We discuss maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters and derive the observed information matrix. The usefulness of the new model is illustrated by means of a real data set. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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INTRODUCTION: Dermatology is primarily an outpatient specialty, but it also plays an important role in the care of inpatients. METHODS: We conducted a prospective study that recorded data from inpatient dermatology consultation request forms over a period of four months. The study evaluated 313 requests that led to 566 visits, 86 biopsies, 35 laboratory exams, 41 direct microscopic studies, 18 direct immunofluorescence analyses, 14 skin cultures and a few other exams. RESULTS: The most frequent requesting service was internal medicine (24%), followed by neurology (12%), cardiology (11%), infectious diseases and pediatrics (8% each) and psychiatry and general surgery (6% each). The most frequent diagnostic groups were infectious diseases (25%, divided into fungal infections (13%), bacterial infections (7%) and viral infections (5%)), eczemas (15%) and drug reactions (14%). To our knowledge, this is the first study to attempt to evaluate the impact of the consultations by asking multiple-choice questions that were analyzed by the authors. In 31% of the cases, the consultation was considered extremely relevant because it aided in managing the disease that led to admission or treated a potentially severe dermatological disease. In 58% of the cases, the consultation was considered important because it facilitated diagnosis and/or treatment of a dermatological disease that was unrelated to the reason for admission.

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OBJETIVO: Avaliar o consumo alimentar e o padrão de refeições de adolescentes, São Paulo, Brasil. MÉTODOS: Por meio do Recordatório de 24 horas, avaliou-se o consumo energético total, de macronutrientes, cálcio, ferro e vitamina A e a omissão de refeições ou sua substituição por lanche, de adolescentes de uma escola pública de Ilhabela. Comparou-se o consumo alimentar por grupo com a Pirâmide Alimentar do adolescente. Foi realizada análise descritiva, aplicou-se o teste Qui-quadrado (p < 0,005), além de análise qualitativa. RESULTADOS: o consumo energético total foi inferior ao estimado para 66 por cento dos adolescentes, o percentual de carboidratos foi abaixo do recomendado e o de lipídios e proteínas acima do recomendado. Houve omissão do café da manhã entre 21 por cento dos adolescentes e um terço deles substituiu almoço ou jantar por lanche. CONCLUSÃO: Os adolescentes apresentaram insuficiência calórica na dieta e baixo consumo de frutas, verduras e legumes; o padrão de refeições foi satisfatório, mas o café da manhã deve ser incentivado

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Consider a random medium consisting of N points randomly distributed so that there is no correlation among the distances separating them. This is the random link model, which is the high dimensionality limit (mean-field approximation) for the Euclidean random point structure. In the random link model, at discrete time steps, a walker moves to the nearest point, which has not been visited in the last mu steps (memory), producing a deterministic partially self-avoiding walk (the tourist walk). We have analytically obtained the distribution of the number n of points explored by the walker with memory mu=2, as well as the transient and period joint distribution. This result enables us to explain the abrupt change in the exploratory behavior between the cases mu=1 (memoryless walker, driven by extreme value statistics) and mu=2 (walker with memory, driven by combinatorial statistics). In the mu=1 case, the mean newly visited points in the thermodynamic limit (N >> 1) is just < n >=e=2.72... while in the mu=2 case, the mean number < n > of visited points grows proportionally to N(1/2). Also, this result allows us to establish an equivalence between the random link model with mu=2 and random map (uncorrelated back and forth distances) with mu=0 and the abrupt change between the probabilities for null transient time and subsequent ones.

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Introduction: Work disability is a major consequence of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), associated not only with traditional disease activity variables, but also more significantly with demographic, functional, occupational, and societal variables. Recent reports suggest that the use of biologic agents offers potential for reduced work disability rates, but the conclusions are based on surrogate disease activity measures derived from studies primarily from Western countries. Methods: The Quantitative Standard Monitoring of Patients with RA (QUEST-RA) multinational database of 8,039 patients in 86 sites in 32 countries, 16 with high gross domestic product (GDP) (>24K US dollars (USD) per capita) and 16 low-GDP countries (<11K USD), was analyzed for work and disability status at onset and over the course of RA and clinical status of patients who continued working or had stopped working in high-GDP versus low-GDP countries according to all RA Core Data Set measures. Associations of work disability status with RA Core Data Set variables and indices were analyzed using descriptive statistics and regression analyses. Results: At the time of first symptoms, 86% of men (range 57%-100% among countries) and 64% (19%-87%) of women <65 years were working. More than one third (37%) of these patients reported subsequent work disability because of RA. Among 1,756 patients whose symptoms had begun during the 2000s, the probabilities of continuing to work were 80% (95% confidence interval (CI) 78%-82%) at 2 years and 68% (95% CI 65%-71%) at 5 years, with similar patterns in high-GDP and low-GDP countries. Patients who continued working versus stopped working had significantly better clinical status for all clinical status measures and patient self-report scores, with similar patterns in high-GDP and low-GDP countries. However, patients who had stopped working in high-GDP countries had better clinical status than patients who continued working in low-GDP countries. The most significant identifier of work disability in all subgroups was Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) functional disability score. Conclusions: Work disability rates remain high among people with RA during this millennium. In low-GDP countries, people remain working with high levels of disability and disease activity. Cultural and economic differences between societies affect work disability as an outcome measure for RA.

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Quantum field theories (QFT's) on noncommutative spacetimes are currently under intensive study. Usually such theories have world sheet noncommutativity. In the present work, instead, we study QFT's with commutative world sheet and noncommutative target space. Such noncommutativity can be interpreted in terms of twisted statistics and is related to earlier work of Oeckl [R. Oeckl, Commun. Math. Phys. 217, 451 (2001)], and others [A. P. Balachandran, G. Mangano, A. Pinzul, and S. Vaidya, Int. J. Mod. Phys. A 21, 3111 (2006); A. P. Balachandran, A. Pinzul, and B. A. Qureshi, Phys. Lett. B 634,434 (2006); A.P. Balachandran, A. Pinzul, B.A. Qureshi, and S. Vaidya, arXiv:hep-th/0608138; A.P. Balachandran, T. R. Govindarajan, G. Mangano, A. Pinzul, B.A. Qureshi, and S. Vaidya, Phys. Rev. D 75, 045009 (2007); A. Pinzul, Int. J. Mod. Phys. A 20, 6268 (2005); G. Fiore and J. Wess, Phys. Rev. D 75, 105022 (2007); Y. Sasai and N. Sasakura, Prog. Theor. Phys. 118, 785 (2007)]. The twisted spectra of their free Hamiltonians has been found earlier by Carmona et al. [J. M. Carmona, J. L. Cortes, J. Gamboa, and F. Mendez, Phys. Lett. B 565, 222 (2003); J. M. Carmona, J. L. Cortes, J. Gamboa, and F. Mendez, J. High Energy Phys. 03 (2003) 058]. We review their derivation and then compute the partition function of one such typical theory. It leads to a deformed blackbody spectrum, which is analyzed in detail. The difference between the usual and the deformed blackbody spectrum appears in the region of high frequencies. Therefore we expect that the deformed blackbody radiation may potentially be used to compute a Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuzmin cutoff which will depend on the noncommutative parameter theta.

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Background: The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of fibromyalgia, as well as to assess the major symptoms of this syndrome in an adult, low socioeconomic status population assisted by the primary health care system in a city in Brazil. Methods: We cross-sectionally sampled individuals assisted by the public primary health care system (n = 768, 35-60 years old). Participants were interviewed by phone and screened about pain. They were then invited to be clinically assessed (304 accepted). Pain was estimated using a Visual Analogue Scale (VAS). Fibromyalgia was assessed using the Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire (FIQ), as well as screening for tender points using dolorimetry. Statistical analyses included Bayesian Statistics and the Kruskal-Wallis Anova test (significance level = 5%). Results: From the phone-interview screening, we divided participants (n = 768) in three groups: No Pain (NP) (n = 185); Regional Pain (RP) (n = 388) and Widespread Pain (WP) (n = 106). Among those participating in the clinical assessments, (304 subjects), the prevalence of fibromyalgia was 4.4% (95% confidence interval [2.6%; 6.3%]). Symptoms of pain (VAS and FIQ), feeling well, job ability, fatigue, morning tiredness, stiffness, anxiety and depression were statically different among the groups. In multivariate analyses we found that individuals with FM and WP had significantly higher impairment than those with RP and NP. FM and WP were similarly disabling. Similarly, RP was no significantly different than NP. Conclusion: Fibromyalgia is prevalent in the low socioeconomic status population assisted by the public primary health care system. Prevalence was similar to other studies (4.4%) in a more diverse socioeconomic population. Individuals with FM and WP have significant impact in their well being.

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This article intends to contribute to the reflection on the Educational Statistics as being source for the researches on History of Education. The main concern was to reveal the way Educational Statistics related to the period from 1871 to 1931 were produced, in central government. Official reports - from the General Statistics Directory - and Statistics yearbooks released by that department were analyzed and, on this analysis, recommendations and definitions to perform the works were sought. By rending problematic to the documental issues on Educational Statistics and their usual interpretations, the intention was to reduce the ignorance about the origin of the school numbers, which are occasionally used in current researches without the convenient critical exam.