89 resultados para Prediction error method


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The objective of this study was to test a device developed to improve the functionality, accuracy and precision of the original technique for sweating rate measurements proposed by Schleger and Turner [Schleger AV, Turner HG (1965) Aust J Agric Res 16:92-106]. A device was built for this purpose and tested against the original Schleger and Turner technique. Testing was performed by measuring sweating rates in an experiment involving six Mertolenga heifers subjected to four different thermal levels in a climatic chamber. The device exhibited no functional problems and the results obtained with its use were more consistent than with the Schleger and Turner technique. There was no difference in the reproducibility of the two techniques (same accuracy), but measurements performed with the new device had lower repeatability, corresponding to lower variability and, consequently, to higher precision. When utilizing this device, there is no need for physical contact between the operator and the animal to maintain the filter paper discs in position. This has important advantages: the animals stay quieter, and several animals can be evaluated simultaneously. This is a major advantage because it allows more measurements to be taken in a given period of time, increasing the precision of the observations and diminishing the error associated with temporal hiatus (e.g., the solar angle during field studies). The new device has higher functional versatility when taking measurements in large-scale studies (many animals) under field conditions. The results obtained in this study suggest that the technique using the device presented here could represent an advantageous alternative to the original technique described by Schleger and Turner.

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In the present work, a group contribution method is proposed for the estimation of viscosity of fatty compounds and biodiesel esters as a function of the temperature. The databank used for regression of the group contribution parameters (1070 values for 65 types of substances) included fatty compounds, such as fatty acids, methyl and ethyl esters and alcohols, tri- and diacylglycerols, and glycerol. The inclusion of new experimental data for fatty esters, a partial acylglycerol, and glycerol allowed for a further refinement in the performance of this methodology in comparison to a prior group contribution equation (Ceriani, R.; Goncalves, C. B.; Rabelo, J.; Caruso, M.; Cunha, A. C. C.; Cavaleri, F. W.; Batista, E. A. C.; Meirelles, A. J. A. Group contribution model for predicting viscosity of fatty compounds. J. Chem. Eng. Data 2007, 52, 965-972) for all classes of fatty compounds. Besides, the influence of small concentrations of partial acylglycerols, intermediate compounds in the transesterification reaction, in the viscosity of biodiesels was also investigated.

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This study investigates the numerical simulation of three-dimensional time-dependent viscoelastic free surface flows using the Upper-Convected Maxwell (UCM) constitutive equation and an algebraic explicit model. This investigation was carried out to develop a simplified approach that can be applied to the extrudate swell problem. The relevant physics of this flow phenomenon is discussed in the paper and an algebraic model to predict the extrudate swell problem is presented. It is based on an explicit algebraic representation of the non-Newtonian extra-stress through a kinematic tensor formed with the scaled dyadic product of the velocity field. The elasticity of the fluid is governed by a single transport equation for a scalar quantity which has dimension of strain rate. Mass and momentum conservations, and the constitutive equation (UCM and algebraic model) were solved by a three-dimensional time-dependent finite difference method. The free surface of the fluid was modeled using a marker-and-cell approach. The algebraic model was validated by comparing the numerical predictions with analytic solutions for pipe flow. In comparison with the classical UCM model, one advantage of this approach is that computational workload is substantially reduced: the UCM model employs six differential equations while the algebraic model uses only one. The results showed stable flows with very large extrudate growths beyond those usually obtained with standard differential viscoelastic models. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Predictors of random effects are usually based on the popular mixed effects (ME) model developed under the assumption that the sample is obtained from a conceptual infinite population; such predictors are employed even when the actual population is finite. Two alternatives that incorporate the finite nature of the population are obtained from the superpopulation model proposed by Scott and Smith (1969. Estimation in multi-stage surveys. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 64, 830-840) or from the finite population mixed model recently proposed by Stanek and Singer (2004. Predicting random effects from finite population clustered samples with response error. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 99, 1119-1130). Predictors derived under the latter model with the additional assumptions that all variance components are known and that within-cluster variances are equal have smaller mean squared error (MSE) than the competitors based on either the ME or Scott and Smith`s models. As population variances are rarely known, we propose method of moment estimators to obtain empirical predictors and conduct a simulation study to evaluate their performance. The results suggest that the finite population mixed model empirical predictor is more stable than its competitors since, in terms of MSE, it is either the best or the second best and when second best, its performance lies within acceptable limits. When both cluster and unit intra-class correlation coefficients are very high (e.g., 0.95 or more), the performance of the empirical predictors derived under the three models is similar. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The purpose of this article is to present a new method to predict the response variable of an observation in a new cluster for a multilevel logistic regression. The central idea is based on the empirical best estimator for the random effect. Two estimation methods for multilevel model are compared: penalized quasi-likelihood and Gauss-Hermite quadrature. The performance measures for the prediction of the probability for a new cluster observation of the multilevel logistic model in comparison with the usual logistic model are examined through simulations and an application.

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Despite the advances in bonding materials, many clinicians today still prefer to place bands on molar teeth. Molar bonding procedures need improvement to be widely accepted clinically. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the shear bond strength when an additional adhesive layer was applied on the occlusal tooth/tube interface to provide reinforcement to molar tubes. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Sixty third molars were selected and allocated to the 3 groups: group 1 received a conventional direct bond followed by the application of an additional layer of adhesive on the occlusal tooth/tube interface, group 2 received a conventional direct bond, and group 3 received a conventional direct bond and an additional cure time of 10 s. The specimens were debonded in a universal testing machine. The results were analyzed statistically by ANOVA and Tukey's test (α=0.05). RESULTS: Group 1 had a significantly higher (p<0.05) shear bond strength compared to groups 2 and 3. No difference was detected between groups 2 and 3 (p>0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The present in vitro findings indicate that the application of an additional layer of adhesive on the tooth/tube interface increased the shear bond strength of the bonded molar tubes.

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The aims of this study were to demonstrate the synthesis of an experimental glass ionomer cement (GIC) by the non-hydrolytic sol-gel method and to evaluate its biocompatibility in comparison to a conventional glass ionomer cement (Vidrion R). Four polyethylene tubes containing the tested cements were implanted in the dorsal region of 15 rats, as follows: GI - experimental GIC and GII - conventional GIC. The external tube walls was considered the control group (CG). The rats were sacrificed 7, 21 and 42 days after implant placement for histopathological analysis. A four-point (I-IV) scoring system was used to graduate the inflammatory reaction. Regarding the experimental GIC sintherization, thermogravimetric and x-ray diffraction analysis demonstrated vitreous material formation at 110oC by the sol-gel method. For biocompatibility test, results showed a moderate chronic inflammatory reaction for GI (III), severe for GII (IV) and mild for CG (II) at 7 days. After 21 days, GI presented a mild reaction (II); GII, moderate (III) and CG, mild (II). At 42 days, GI showed a mild/absent inflammatory reaction (II to I), similar to GII (II to I). CG presented absence of chronic inflammatory reaction (I). It was concluded that the experimental GIC presented mild/absent tissue reaction after 42 days, being biocompatible when tested in the connective tissue of rats.

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This article describes and discusses a method to determine root curvature radius by using cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT). The severity of root canal curvature is essential to select instrument and instrumentation technique. The diagnosis and planning of root canal treatment have traditionally been made based on periapical radiography. However, the higher accuracy of CBCT images to identify anatomic and pathologic alterations compared to panoramic and periapical radiographs has been shown to reduce the incidence of false-negative results. In high-resolution images, the measurement of root curvature radius can be obtained by circumcenter. Based on 3 mathematical points determined with the working tools of Planimp® software, it is possible to calculate root curvature radius in both apical and coronal directions. The CBCT-aided method for determination of root curvature radius presented in this article is easy to perform, reproducible and allows a more reliable and predictable endodontic planning, which reflects directly on a more efficacious preparation of curved root canals.

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OBJECTIVE: To assess microleakage in conservative class V cavities prepared with aluminum-oxide air abrasion or turbine and restored with self-etching or etch-and-rinse adhesive systems. Materials and Methods: Forty premolars were randomly assigned to 4 groups (I and II: air abrasion; III and IV: turbine) and class V cavities were prepared on the buccal surfaces. Conditioning approaches were: groups I/III - 37% phosphoric acid; groups II/IV - self-priming etchant (Tyrian-SPE). Cavities were restored with One Step Plus/Filtek Z250. After finishing, specimens were thermocycled, immersed in 50% silver nitrate, and serially sectioned. Microleakage at the occlusal and cervical interfaces was measured in mm and calculated by a software. Data were subjected to ANOVA and Tukey's test (α=0.05). RESULTS: Marginal seal provided by air abrasion was similar to high-speed handpiece, except for group I. There was SIGNIFICANT difference between enamel and dentin/cementum margins for to group I and II: air abrasion. The etch-and-rinse adhesive system promoted a better marginal seal. At enamel and dentin/cementum margins, the highest microleakage values were found in cavities treated with the self-etching adhesive system. At dentin/cementum margins, high-speed handpiece preparations associated with etch-and-rinse system provided the least dye penetration. CONCLUSION: Marginal seal of cavities prepared with aluminum-oxide air abrasion was different from that of conventionally prepared cavities, and the etch-and-rinse system promoted higher marginal seal at both enamel and dentin margins.

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The aim of this study was to assess the Knoop hardness of three high viscous glass ionomer cements: G1 - Ketac Molar; G2 - Ketac Molar Easymix (3M ESPE) and G3 - Magic Glass ART (Vigodent). As a parallel goal, three different methods for insertion of Ketac Molar Easymix were tested: G4 - conventional spatula; G5 - commercial syringe (Centrix) and G6 - low-cost syringe. Ten specimens of each group were prepared and the Knoop hardness was determined 5 times on each specimen with a HM-124 hardness machine (25 g/30 s dwell time) after 24 h, 1 and 2 weeks. During the entire test period, the specimens were stored in liquid paraffin at 37ºC. Significant differences were found between G3 and G1/G2 (two-way ANOVA and Tukey's post hoc test; p<0.01). There was no significant difference in the results among the multiple ways of insertion. The glass ionomer cement Magic Glass ART showed the lowest hardness, while the insertion technique had no significant influence on hardness.

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The purpose of the present study was to assess the association between overbite and craniofacial growth pattern. The sample comprised eighty-six cephalograms obtained during the orthodontic pretreatment phase and analyzed using the Radiocef program to identify the craniofacial landmarks and perform orthodontic measurements. The variables utilized were overbite, the Jarabak percentage and the Vert index, as well as classifications resulting from the interpretation of these measurements. In all the statistical tests, a significance level of 5% was considered. Measurement reliability was checked by calculating method error. Weighted Kappa analysis showed that agreement between the facial types defined by the Vert index and the direction of growth trend established by the Jarabak percentage was not satisfactory. Owing to this lack of equivalency, a potential association between overbite and craniofacial growth pattern was evaluated using the chi-square test, considering the two methods separately. No relationship of dependence between overbite and craniofacial growth pattern was revealed by the results obtained. Therefore, it can be concluded that the classification of facial growth pattern will not be the same when considering the Jarabak and the Ricketts anayses, and that increased overbite cannot be associated with a braquifacial growth pattern, nor can openbite be associated with a dolichofacial growth pattern.

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A simple and low cost method to determine volatile contaminants in post-consumer recycled PET flakes was developed and validated by Headspace Dynamic Concentration and Gas Chromatography-Flame Ionization Detection (HDC-GC-FID). The analytical parameters evaluated by using surrogates include: correlation coefficient, detection limit, quantification limit, accuracy, intra-assay precision, and inter-assay precision. In order to compare the efficiency of the proposed method to recognized automated techniques, post-consumer PET packaging samples collected in Brazil were used. GC-MS was used to confirm the identity of the substances identified in the PET packaging. Some of the identified contaminants were estimated in the post-consumer material at concentrations higher than 220 ng.g-1. The findings in this work corroborate data available in the scientific literature pointing out the suitability of the proposed analytical method.

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Este trabalho avalia o desempenho de previsões sazonais do modelo climático regional RegCM3, aninhado ao modelo global CPTEC/COLA. As previsões com o RegCM3 utilizaram 60 km de resolução horizontal num domínio que inclui grande parte da América do Sul. As previsões do RegCM3 e CPTEC/COLA foram avaliadas utilizando as análises de chuva e temperatura do ar do Climate Prediction Center (CPC) e National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP), respectivamente. Entre maio de 2005 e julho de 2007, 27 previsões sazonais de chuva e temperatura do ar (exceto a temperatura do CPTEC/COLA, que possui 26 previsões) foram avaliadas em três regiões do Brasil: Nordeste (NDE), Sudeste (SDE) e Sul (SUL). As previsões do RegCM3 também foram comparadas com as climatologias das análises. De acordo com os índices estatísticos (bias, coeficiente de correlação, raiz quadrada do erro médio quadrático e coeficiente de eficiência), nas três regiões (NDE, SDE e SUL) a chuva sazonal prevista pelo RegCM3 é mais próxima da observada do que a prevista pelo CPTEC/COLA. Além disto, o RegCM3 também é melhor previsor da chuva sazonal do que da média das observações nas três regiões. Para temperatura, as previsões do RegCM3 são superiores às do CPTEC/COLA nas áreas NDE e SUL, enquanto o CPTEC/COLA é superior no SDE. Finalmente, as previsões de chuva e temperatura do RegCM3 são mais próximas das observações do que a climatologia observada. Estes resultados indicam o potencial de utilização do RegCM3 para previsão sazonal, que futuramente deverá ser explorado através de previsão por conjunto.

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The fluid flow over bodies with complex geometry has been the subject of research of many scientists and widely explored experimentally and numerically. The present study proposes an Eulerian Immersed Boundary Method for flows simulations over stationary or moving rigid bodies. The proposed method allows the use of Cartesians Meshes. Here, two-dimensional simulations of fluid flow over stationary and oscillating circular cylinders were used for verification and validation. Four different cases were explored: the flow over a stationary cylinder, the flow over a cylinder oscillating in the flow direction, the flow over a cylinder oscillating in the normal flow direction, and a cylinder with angular oscillation. The time integration was carried out by a classical 4th order Runge-Kutta scheme, with a time step of the same order of distance between two consecutive points in x direction. High-order compact finite difference schemes were used to calculate spatial derivatives. The drag and lift coefficients, the lock-in phenomenon and vorticity contour plots were used for the verification and validation of the proposed method. The extension of the current method allowing the study of a body with different geometry and three-dimensional simulations is straightforward. The results obtained show a good agreement with both numerical and experimental results, encouraging the use of the proposed method.

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The mineralogical characterization through mineral quantification of Brazilian soils by X-ray diffraction data using the Rietveld Method is not common. A mineralogical quantification of an Acric Ferralsol from the Ponta Grossa region, state of Paraná, Brazil, was carried out using this Method with X-Ray Diffraction data to verify if this method was suitable for mineral quantification of a highly-weathered soil. The A, AB and B3 horizons were fractioned to separate the different particle sizes: clay, silt, fine sand (by Stokes Law) and coarse sand fractions (by sieving), with the procedure free of chemical treatments. X-ray Fluorescence, Inductively Coupled Plasma Atomic Emission Spectrometry, Infrared Spectroscopy and Mössbauer Spectroscopy were used in order to assist the mineral identification and quantification. The Rietveld Method enabled the quantification of the present minerals. In a general way, the quantitative mineralogical characterization by the Rietveld Method revealed that quartz, gibbsite, rutile, hematite, goethite, kaolinite and halloysite were present in the clay and silt fractions of all horizons. The silt fractions of the deeper horizons were different from the more superficial ones due to the presence of large amounts of quartz. The fine and the coarse sand fractions are constituted mainly by quartz. Therefore, a mineralogical quantification of the finer fraction (clay and silt) by the Rietveld Method was successful.