88 resultados para Prediction Models for Air Pollution


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To assess the potential effects of short-term exposure to particulate air pollution during follicular phase on clinical, laboratory, and pregnancy outcomes of women undergoing IVF/ET. Retrospective cohort study of 400 first IVF/ET cycles of women exposed to ambient particulate matter during follicular phase. Particulate matter (PM) was categorized into quartiles (Q(1): a parts per thousand currency sign30.48 A mu g/m(3), Q(2): 30.49-42.00 A mu g/m(3), Q(3): 42.01-56.72 A mu g/m(3), and Q(4): > 56.72 A mu g/m(3)). Clinical, laboratory, or treatment variables were not affected by follicular phase PM exposure periods. Women exposed to Q(4) period during the follicular phase of conception cycles had a higher risk of miscarriage (odds ratio, 5.05; 95% confidence interval: 1.04-25.51) when compared to women exposed to Q(1-3) periods. Our results show an association between brief exposure to high levels of ambient PM during the preconceptional period and early pregnancy loss, although no effect of this exposure on clinical, laboratory, and treatment outcomes was observed.

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Objectives: The purpose of this study was to explore the clinical relevance of chronic exposure to ambient levels of traffic derived air pollution on the ocular surface. Methods: A panel study involving 55 volunteers was carried out in Sao Paulo, Brazil. We measured the mean individual levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) exposure for 7 days. All subjects answered the Ocular Symptom Disease Index (OSDI) and a symptoms inventory. Subsequently, subjects underwent Schirmer I test, biomicroscopy, vital staining and tear breakup time (TOUT) assessment. Subject`s mean daily exposure to NO(2) was categorized in quartiles. Statistical analysis was performed using one-way ANOVA, Tukey HSD and Chi-Square tests. Results: A dose-response pattern was detected between OSDI scores and NO(2) quartiles (p < 0.05). There was a significant association between NO(2) quartiles and reported ocular irritation (X(2) = 9.2, p < 0.05) and a significant negative association between TBUT and NO(2) exposure (p < 0.05, R = -0.316. Spearman`s correlation). There was a significant increase in the frequency of meibomitis in subjects exposed to higher levels of NO(2) (p < 0.05). Conclusions: Subjects exposed to higher levels of traffic derived air pollution reported more ocular discomfort symptoms and presented greater tear film instability, suggesting that the ocular discomfort symptoms and tear breakup time could be used as convenient bioindicators of the adverse health effects of traffic derived air pollution exposure. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Exposure to air pollution can elicit cardiovascular health effects. Children and unborn fetuses appear to be particularly vulnerable. However, the mechanisms involved in cardiovascular damage are poorly understood. It has been suggested that the oxidative stress generated by air pollution exposure triggers tissue injury. To investigate whether prenatal exposure can enhance oxidative stress in myocardium of adult animals, mice were placed in a clean chamber (CC, filtered urban air) and in a polluted chamber (PC, Sao Paulo city) during the gestational period and/or for 3 mo after birth, according to 4 protocols: control group-prenatal and postnatal life in CC; prenatal group-prenatal in PC and postnatal life in CC; postnatal group-prenatal in CC and postnatal life in PC; and pre-post group-prenatal and postnatal life in PC. As an indicator of oxidative stress, levels of lipid peroxidation in hearts were measured by malondialdehyde (MDA) quantification and by quantification of the myocardial immunoreactivity for 15-F2t-isoprostane. Ultrastructural studies were performed to detect cellular alterations related to oxidative stress. Concentration of MDA was significantly increased in postnatal (2.45 +/- 0.84 nmol/mg) and pre-post groups (3.84 +/- 1.39 nmol/mg) compared to the control group (0.31 +/- 0.10 nmol/mg) (p < .01). MDA values in the pre-post group were significantly increased compared to the prenatal group (0.71 +/- 0.15 nmol/mg) (p = .017). Myocardial isoprostane area fraction in the pre-post group was increased compared to other groups (p <= .01). Results show that ambient levels of air pollution elicit cardiac oxidative stress in adult mice, and that gestational exposure may enhance this effect.

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Millions of people worldwide are affected by anthropogenic air pollution derived from the combustion of fossil fuels. In this work, we tested the effects of fetal, lactation and post-weaning ambient air pollution exposure on total homocysteine (tHcy) concentrations and on a downstream pathway element, the plasma cysteine (Cys) concentration. Two similar exposure chambers (polluted and filtered chamber) were located near an area with heavy traffic in Sao Paulo, Brazil, and male Swiss mice were housed there from the pre-natal period until 3 months of age. Groups during fetal, lactation and adult periods of exposure were apportioned, and tHcy and Cys plasma concentrations were assessed when the animals were 3 months old. In our study, both the tHcy and Cys concentrations were decreased in groups that spent their final stage of life in polluted chambers, suggesting recent alterations in tHcy and Cys concentrations due to air pollution exposure. The possible relationship of these data with cardiovascular dysfunction is still a matter of controversy in animals; nevertheless, epigenetic mechanisms emerge as a possible issue to consider in the investigation of the link between air pollution and Hcy measurement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Objective: To examine whether there is an association between fetal and/or placental weight and exposure to ambient levels of air pollution in mice. Design: Chronic experiments on mice that were exposed to polluted vs. clean air. Setting: Environmental exposure to atmospheric pollution. Animal(S): Female Swiss mice (n = 70) were maintained at different stages of gestation in an exposure chamber located at an intersection with heavy traffic in a major city in Brazil. Control mice were maintained in a similar chamber, located adjacent to the exposure chamber but equipped with filters for particles and reactive gases. Intervention(s): Animals were divided into six groups as follows: no exposure, exposure to a polluted chamber throughout gestation, exposure to a polluted chamber during the 1st week of pregnancy, exposure to a polluted chamber during the 2nd and 3rd weeks, exposure to a polluted chamber during the 1st and 2nd week, and exposure to a polluted chamber during the 3rd week. Main Outcome Measure(S): At the end of the gestational period, the determination of fetal and placental weight was performed after cesarean section. Result(s): Exposure to air pollution during the 1st week of pregnancy promoted a significant reduction in fetal weight. Mice exposed to polluted air, in any phase of gestation, presented with lower placental weight in comparison to mice maintained in clean chambers. Conclusion(s): Exposure to ambient levels of traffic pollution at early phases of gestation is a determinant for decreased final fetal weight. Placental weight is reduced with exposure to air pollution at any phase of gestation. (Fertil Steril (R) 2008;90:1921-4. (C)2008 by American Society for Reproductive Medicine.)

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In this paper we make use of some stochastic volatility models to analyse the behaviour of a weekly ozone average measurements series. The models considered here have been used previously in problems related to financial time series. Two models are considered and their parameters are estimated using a Bayesian approach based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Both models are applied to the data provided by the monitoring network of the Metropolitan Area of Mexico City. The selection of the best model for that specific data set is performed using the Deviance Information Criterion and the Conditional Predictive Ordinate method.

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Nasal mucociliary system is the first line of defense of the upper airways and may be affected acutely by exposure to particulate matter (PM) from biomass burning. Several epidemiologic studies have demonstrated a consistent association between levels of air pollution from biomass burning with increases in hospitalization for respiratory diseases and mortality. To determine the acute effects of exposure to particulate matter from biomass burning in nasal mucociliary transport by saccharin transit time (STT) test, we studied thirty-three non-smokers and twelve light smokers sugarcane cutters in two periods: pre-harvest season and 4 h after harvest at the first day after biomass burning. Lung function, exhaled carbon monoxide (CO), nasal symptoms questionnaire and mucociliary clearance (MC) were assessed. Exhaled CO was increased in smokers compared to non-smokers but did not change significantly after harvest. In contrast, SIT was similar between smokers and non-smokers and decreased significantly after harvest in both groups (p < 0.001). Exposure to PM from biomass burning did not influence nasal symptoms. Our results suggest that acute exposure to particulate matter from sugarcane burned affects mucociliary clearance in smokers and non-smokers workers in the absence of symptoms. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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In this paper, we consider some non-homogeneous Poisson models to estimate the probability that an air quality standard is exceeded a given number of times in a time interval of interest. We assume that the number of exceedances occurs according to a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP). This Poisson process has rate function lambda(t), t >= 0, which depends on some parameters that must be estimated. We take into account two cases of rate functions: the Weibull and the Goel-Okumoto. We consider models with and without change-points. When the presence of change-points is assumed, we may have the presence of either one, two or three change-points, depending of the data set. The parameters of the rate functions are estimated using a Gibbs sampling algorithm. Results are applied to ozone data provided by the Mexico City monitoring network. In a first instance, we assume that there are no change-points present. Depending on the adjustment of the model, we assume the presence of either one, two or three change-points. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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The generalized Birnbaum-Saunders (GBS) distribution is a new class of positively skewed models with lighter and heavier tails than the traditional Birnbaum-Saunders (BS) distribution, which is largely applied to study lifetimes. However, the theoretical argument and the interesting properties of the GBS model have made its application possible beyond the lifetime analysis. The aim of this paper is to present the GBS distribution as a useful model for describing pollution data and deriving its positive and negative moments. Based on these moments, we develop estimation and goodness-of-fit methods. Also, some properties of the proposed estimators useful for developing asymptotic inference are presented. Finally, an application with real data from Environmental Sciences is given to illustrate the methodology developed. This example shows that the empirical fit of the GBS distribution to the data is very good. Thus, the GBS model is appropriate for describing air pollutant concentration data, which produces better results than the lognormal model when the administrative target is determined for abating air pollution. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Background This study describes heat- and cold-related mortality in 12 urban populations in low- and middle-income countries, thereby extending knowledge of how diverse populations, in non-OECD countries, respond to temperature extremes. Methods The cities were: Delhi, Monterrey, Mexico City, Chiang Mai, Bangkok, Salvador, So Paulo, Santiago, Cape Town, Ljubljana, Bucharest and Sofia. For each city, daily mortality was examined in relation to ambient temperature using autoregressive Poisson models (2- to 5-year series) adjusted for season, relative humidity, air pollution, day of week and public holidays. Results Most cities showed a U-shaped temperature-mortality relationship, with clear evidence of increasing death rates at colder temperatures in all cities except Ljubljana, Salvador and Delhi and with increasing heat in all cities except Chiang Mai and Cape Town. Estimates of the temperature threshold below which cold-related mortality began to increase ranged from 15 degrees C to 29 degrees C; the threshold for heat-related deaths ranged from 16 degrees C to 31C. Heat thresholds were generally higher in cities with warmer climates, while cold thresholds were unrelated to climate. Conclusions Urban populations, in diverse geographic settings, experience increases in mortality due to both high and low temperatures. The effects of heat and cold vary depending on climate and non-climate factors such as the population disease profile and age structure. Although such populations will undergo some adaptation to increasing temperatures, many are likely to have substantial vulnerability to climate change. Additional research is needed to elucidate vulnerability within populations.

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Objective: Bronchial typical carcinoid tumors are tow-grade malignancies. However, metastases are diagnosed in some patients. Predicting the individual risk of these metastases to determine patients eligible for a radical lymphadenectomy and patients to be followed-up because of distant metastasis risk is relevant. Our objective was to screen for predictive criteria of bronchial typical carcinoid tumor aggressiveness based on a logistic regression model using clinical, pathological and biomolecular data. Methods: A multicenter retrospective cohort study, including 330 consecutive patients operated on for bronchial typical carcinoid tumors and followed-up during a period more than 10 years in two university hospitals was performed. Selected data to predict the individual risk for both nodal and distant metastasis were: age, gender, TNM staging, tumor diameter and location (central/peripheral), tumor immunostaining index of p53 and Ki67, Bcl2 and the extracellular density of neoformed microvessels and of collagen/elastic extracellular fibers. Results: Nodal and distant metastasis incidence was 11% and 5%, respectively. Univariate analysis identified all the studied biomarkers as related to nodal metastasis. Multivariate analysis identified a predictive variable for nodal metastasis: neo angiogenesis, quantified by the neoformed pathological microvessels density. Distant metastasis was related to mate gender. Discussion: Predictive models based on clinical and biomolecular data could be used to predict individual risk for metastasis. Patients under a high individual risk for lymph node metastasis should be considered as candidates to mediastinal lymphadenectomy. Those under a high risk of distant metastasis should be followed-up as having an aggressive disease. Conclusion: Individual risk prediction of bronchial typical carcinoid tumor metastasis for patients operated on can be calculated in function of biomolecular data. Prediction models can detect high-risk patients and help surgeons to identify patients requiring radical lymphadenectomy and help oncologists to identify those as having an aggressive disease requiring prolonged follow-up. (C) 2008 European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Objectives: We investigated effects of chronic exposure (2 months) to ambient levels of particulate matter (PM) on development of protease-induced emphysema and pulmonary remodeling in mice. Methods: Balb/c mice received nasal drop of either papain or normal saline and were kept in two exposure chambers situated in an area with high traffic density. One of them received ambient air and the other had filters for PM. Results: mean concentration of PM10 was 2.68 +/- 0.38 and 33.86 +/- 2.09 mu g/m(3), respectively, in the filtered and ambient air chambers (p<0.001). After 2 months of exposure, lungs from papain-treated mice kept in the chamber with ambient air presented greater values of mean linear intercept, an increase in density of collagen fibers in alveolar septa and in expression of 8-isoprostane (p = 0.002, p < 0.05 and p = 0.002, respectively, compared to papain-treated mice kept in the chamber with filtered air). We did not observe significant differences between these two groups in density of macrophages and in amount of cells expressing matrix metalloproteinase-12. There were no significant differences in saline-treated mice kept in the two chambers. Conclusions: We conclude that exposure to urban levels of PM worsens protease-induced emphysema and increases pulmonary remodeling. We suggest that an increase in oxidative stress induced by PM exposure influences this response. These pulmonary effects of PM were observed only in mice with emphysema. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Ozone dynamics depend on meteorological characteristics such as wind, radiation, sunshine, air temperature and precipitation. The aim of this study was to determine ozone trajectories along the northern coast of Portugal during the summer months of 2005, when there was a spate of forest fires in the region, evaluating their impact on respiratory and cardiovascular health in the greater metropolitan area of Porto. We investigated the following diseases, as coded in the ninth revision of the International Classification of Diseases: hypertensive disease (codes 401-405); ischemic heart disease (codes 410-414); other cardiac diseases, including heart failure (codes 426-428); chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and allied conditions, including bronchitis and asthma (codes 490-496); and pneumoconiosis and other lung diseases due to external agents (codes 500-507). We evaluated ozone data from air quality monitoring stations in the study area, together with data collected through HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model analysis of air mass circulation and synoptic-scale zonal wind from National Centers for Environmental Prediction data. High ozone levels in rural areas were attributed to the dispersion of pollutants induced by local circulation, as well as by mesoscale and synoptic scale processes. The fires of 2005 increased the levels of pollutants resulting from the direct emission of gases and particles into the atmosphere, especially when there were incoming frontal systems. For the meteorological case studies analyzed, peaks in ozone concentration were positively associated with higher rates of hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases, although there were no significant associations between ozone peaks and admissions for respiratory diseases.

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In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the number of times an air quality standard is exceeded in a given period of time. A non-homogeneous Poisson model is proposed to analyse this issue. The rate at which the Poisson events occur is given by a rate function lambda(t), t >= 0. This rate function also depends on some parameters that need to be estimated. Two forms of lambda(t), t >= 0 are considered. One of them is of the Weibull form and the other is of the exponentiated-Weibull form. The parameters estimation is made using a Bayesian formulation based on the Gibbs sampling algorithm. The assignation of the prior distributions for the parameters is made in two stages. In the first stage, non-informative prior distributions are considered. Using the information provided by the first stage, more informative prior distributions are used in the second one. The theoretical development is applied to data provided by the monitoring network of Mexico City. The rate function that best fit the data varies according to the region of the city and/or threshold that is considered. In some cases the best fit is the Weibull form and in other cases the best option is the exponentiated-Weibull. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Objective. To investigate the short-term effects of exposure to particulate matter from biomass burning in the Amazon on the daily demand for outpatient care due to respiratory diseases in children and the elderly. Methods. Epidemiologic study with ecologic time series design. Daily consultation records were obtained from the 14 primary health care clinics in the municipality of Alta Floresta, state of Mato Grosso, in the southern region of the Brazilian Amazon, between January 2004 and December 2005. Information on the daily levels of fine particulate matter was made available by the Brazilian National Institute for Spatial Research. To control for confounding factors ( situations in which a non-causal association between exposure and disease is observed due to a third variable), variables related to time trends, seasonality, temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and calendar effects ( such as occurrence of holidays and weekends) were included in the model. Poisson regression with generalized additive models was used. Results. A 10 mu g/m(3) increase in the level of exposure to particulate matter was associated with increases of 2.9% and 2.6% in outpatient consultations due to respiratory diseases in children on the 6th and 7th days following exposure. Significant associations were not observed for elderly individuals. Conclusions. The results suggest that the levels of particulate matter from biomass burning in the Amazon are associated with adverse effects on the respiratory health of children.