Cutpoint selection for discretizing a continuous covariate for generalized estimating equations

We consider consider the problem of dichotomizing a continuous covariate when performing a regression analysis based on a generalized estimation approach. The problem involves estimation of the cutpoint for the covariate and testing the hypothesis that the binary covariate constructed from the continuous covariate has a significant impact on the outcome. Due to the multiple testing used to find the optimal cutpoint, we need to make an adjustment to the usual significance test to preserve the type-I error rates. We illustrate the techniques on one data set of patients given unrelated hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. Here the question is whether the CD34 cell dose given to patient affects the outcome of the transplant and what is the smallest cell dose which is needed for good outcomes. (C) 2010 Elsevier BM. All rights reserved.

Efetividade de programa de suplementação alimentar no ganho ponderal de crianças

OBJETIVO: Avaliar a efetividade de programa governamental de suplementação alimentar no ganho ponderal de crianças. MÉTODOS: Estudo de coorte com dados secundários de 25.433 crianças de baixa renda com idade entre seis e 24 meses que ingressaram em programa de distribuição de leite fortificado Projeto Vivaleite, realizado no Estado de São Paulo de 2003 a 2008. O ganho ponderal foi medido por meio dos valores de escores z de peso para idade, calculados pelo padrão da Organização Mundial da Saúde (2007), obtidos, na rotina do programa, ao ingressar e a cada quatro meses durante a permanência. As crianças foram divididas em três grupos de escore z ao entrar: sem comprometimento de peso (z > -1); risco de baixo peso (-2 < z < -1) e baixo peso (z < -2). Utilizou-se regressão linear multinível (modelo misto), permitindo a comparação, em cada idade, das médias ajustadas do escore z dos ingressantes e participantes há pelo menos quatro meses, ajustadas para correlação entre medidas repetidas. RESULTADOS: Verificou-se efeito positivo do programa no ganho de peso das crianças, variando em função do estado nutricional ao ingressar; para as que entraram sem comprometimento de peso, o ganho médio ajustado foi 0,183 escore z;entre as que entraram com risco de baixo peso, foi 0,566; e entre as ingressantes com baixo peso, foi 1,005 escore z. CONCLUSÕES: O programa é efetivo para o ganho ponderal de crianças menores de dois anos, com efeito mais pronunciado entre as crianças que entram no programa em condições menos favoráveis de peso.

Prevalência de hipertensão arterial em militares jovens e fatores associados

OBJETIVO: Estimar a prevalência de hipertensão arterial entre militares jovens e fatores associados. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal realizado com amostra de 380 militares do sexo masculino de 19 e 35 anos de idade em uma unidade da Força Aérea Brasileira em São Paulo, SP, entre 2000 e 2001. Os pontos de corte para hipertensão foram: >140mmHg para pressão sistólica e > 90mmHg para pressão diastólica. As variáveis estudadas incluíram fatores de risco e de proteção para hipertensão, como características comportamentais e nutricionais. Para análise das associações, utilizou-se regressão linear generalizada múltipla, com família binomial e ligação logarítmica, obtendo-se razões de prevalências com intervalo de 90% de confiança e seleção hierarquizada das variáveis. RESULTADOS: A prevalência de hipertensão arterial foi de 22% (IC 90%: 21;29). No modelo final da regressão múltipla verificou-se prevalência de hipertensão 68% maior entre os ex-fumantes em relação aos não fumantes (IC 90%: 1,13;2,50). Entre os indivíduos com sobrepeso (índice de massa corporal - IMC de 25 a 29kg/m2) e com obesidade (IMC>29kg/m2) as prevalências foram, respectivamente, 75% (IC 90%: 1,23;2,50) e 178% (IC 90%: 1,82;4,25) maiores do que entre os eutróficos. Entre os que praticavam atividade física regular, comparado aos que não praticavam, a prevalência foi 52% menor (IC 90%: 0,30;0,90). CONCLUSÕES: Ser ex-fumante e ter sobrepeso ou obesidade foram situações de risco para hipertensão, enquanto que a prática regular de atividade física foi fator de proteção em militares jovens.

Contribution margin model applied to the marketing planning of a container liner carrier

The implementation of confidential contracts between a container liner carrier and its customers, because of the Ocean Shipping Reform Act (OSRA) 1998, demands a revision in the methodology applied in the carrier's planning of marketing and sales. The marketing and sales planning process should be more scientific and with a better use of operational research tools considering the selection of the customers under contracts, the duration of the contracts, the freight, and the container imbalances of these contracts are basic factors for the carrier's yield. This work aims to develop a decision support system based on a linear programming model to generate the business plan for a container liner carrier, maximizing the contribution margin of its freight.

Real time optimization (RTO) with model predictive control (MPC)

This paper studies a simplified methodology to integrate the real time optimization (RTO) of a continuous system into the model predictive controller in the one layer strategy. The gradient of the economic objective function is included in the cost function of the controller. Optimal conditions of the process at steady state are searched through the use of a rigorous non-linear process model, while the trajectory to be followed is predicted with the use of a linear dynamic model, obtained through a plant step test. The main advantage of the proposed strategy is that the resulting control/optimization problem can still be solved with a quadratic programming routine at each sampling step. Simulation results show that the approach proposed may be comparable to the strategy that solves the full economic optimization problem inside the MPC controller where the resulting control problem becomes a non-linear programming problem with a much higher computer load. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Formulating Mixed Models for Experiments, Including Longitudinal Experiments

Mixed models have become important in analyzing the results of experiments, particularly those that require more complicated models (e.g., those that involve longitudinal data). This article describes a method for deriving the terms in a mixed model. Our approach extends an earlier method by Brien and Bailey to explicitly identify terms for which autocorrelation and smooth trend arising from longitudinal observations need to be incorporated in the model. At the same time we retain the principle that the model used should include, at least, all the terms that are justified by the randomization. This is done by dividing the factors into sets, called tiers, based on the randomization and determining the crossing and nesting relationships between factors. The method is applied to formulate mixed models for a wide range of examples. We also describe the mixed model analysis of data from a three-phase experiment to investigate the effect of time of refinement on Eucalyptus pulp from four different sources. Cubic smoothing splines are used to describe differences in the trend over time and unstructured covariance matrices between times are found to be necessary.

Bias-corrected Pearson estimating functions for Taylor`s power law applied to benthic macrofauna data

Estimation of Taylor`s power law for species abundance data may be performed by linear regression of the log empirical variances on the log means, but this method suffers from a problem of bias for sparse data. We show that the bias may be reduced by using a bias-corrected Pearson estimating function. Furthermore, we investigate a more general regression model allowing for site-specific covariates. This method may be efficiently implemented using a Newton scoring algorithm, with standard errors calculated from the inverse Godambe information matrix. The method is applied to a set of biomass data for benthic macrofauna from two Danish estuaries. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimized harvest scheduling in eucalyptus plantations under operational, spatial and climatic constraints

The representation of sustainability concerns in industrial forests management plans, in relation to environmental, social and economic aspects, involve a great amount of details when analyzing and understanding the interaction among these aspects to reduce possible future impacts. At the tactical and operational planning levels, methods based on generic assumptions usually provide non-realistic solutions, impairing the decision making process. This study is aimed at improving current operational harvesting planning techniques, through the development of a mixed integer goal programming model. This allows the evaluation of different scenarios, subject to environmental and supply constraints, increase of operational capacity, and the spatial consequences of dispatching harvest crews to certain distances over the evaluation period. As a result, a set of performance indicators was selected to evaluate all optimal solutions provided to different possible scenarios and combinations of these scenarios, and to compare these outcomes with the real results observed by the mill in the study case area. Results showed that it is possible to elaborate a linear programming model that adequately represents harvesting limitations, production aspects and environmental and supply constraints. The comparison involving the evaluated scenarios and the real observed results showed the advantage of using more holistic approaches and that it is possible to improve the quality of the planning recommendations using linear programming techniques.

Seroprevalence of Human Papillomavirus 6, 11, 16, and 18 in Young Primiparous Women in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Introduction: Data on epidemiology of HPV infection are needed for the development of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine recommendations, especially in countries where HPV vaccination is not yet included in public vaccination programs. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of serum antibodies to HPV types 6, 11, 16, and 18 and associated factors among young women after birth of the first child. Methods: This cross-sectional study was carried out in a large public maternity hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Three hundred one women aged 15 to 24 years who gave birth to their first child were recruited between 43 and 60 days after delivery. Seroprevalence was performed using a type-specific enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay based on HPV Late protein 1 viruslike particles. The association of seroreactivity with these 4 HPV types with selected demographic and behavioral factors was assessed by Generalized Linear Model analysis. Results: Fifty-eight (19.3%) women (95% confidence interval, 15.0%-24.2%) had antibodies to any of the 4 viruslike particles tested. The overall seroprevalence rates of the HPV types were: HPV16, 9.0%; HPV18, 7.0%; and HPV 6+11, 7.7%, which are targeted by the HPV prophylactic vaccines. In the multivariate analysis, only age (inversely, P = 0.044 for trend) and previous sexually transmitted disease (P = 0.008) were 2 factors independently associated with HPV seropositivity. Conclusions: These data offer additional information on the epidemiology of HPV in a group of young Brazilian women after first delivery and contribute to establish a baseline of HPV seroprevalence against which post-HPV vaccine era seroprevalence can be compared.

Classification model based on Raman spectra of selected morphological and biochemical tissue constituents for identification of atherosclerosis in human coronary arteries

This study presents the results of Raman spectroscopy applied to the classification of arterial tissue based on a simplified model using basal morphological and biochemical information extracted from the Raman spectra of arteries. The Raman spectrograph uses an 830-nm diode laser, imaging spectrograph, and a CCD camera. A total of 111 Raman spectra from arterial fragments were used to develop the model, and those spectra were compared to the spectra of collagen, fat cells, smooth muscle cells, calcification, and cholesterol in a linear fit model. Non-atherosclerotic (NA), fatty and fibrous-fatty atherosclerotic plaques (A) and calcified (C) arteries exhibited different spectral signatures related to different morphological structures presented in each tissue type. Discriminant analysis based on Mahalanobis distance was employed to classify the tissue type with respect to the relative intensity of each compound. This model was subsequently tested prospectively in a set of 55 spectra. The simplified diagnostic model showed that cholesterol, collagen, and adipocytes were the tissue constituents that gave the best classification capability and that those changes were correlated to histopathology. The simplified model, using spectra obtained from a few tissue morphological and biochemical constituents, showed feasibility by using a small amount of variables, easily extracted from gross samples.

The influence of Flutter (R) VRP1 components on mucus transport of patients with bronchiectasis

Background: The Flutter (R) VRP1 combines high frequency oscillation and positive expiratory pressure (PEP). Objective: To separately evaluate the effect of the Flutter (R) VRP1 components (high frequency oscillation and PEP) on mucus transportability in patients with bronchiectasis. Methods: Eighteen patients with bronchiectasis received sessions with the Flutter (R) VRP1 or PEP for 30 min daily in a randomized, crossover study. The treatment duration was four weeks with one of the therapies, one week of a ""wash-out"" period and followed by four more weeks with the other treatment. Weekly secretion samples were collected and evaluated for mucociliary relative transport velocity (RTV), displacement in a simulated cough machine (SCM) and contact angle measurement (CAM). For the proposed comparisons, a linear regression model was used with mixed effects with a significance level of 5%. Results: The Flutter (R) VRP1 treatment resulted in greater displacement in SCM and lower CAM when comparing results from the first (9.6 +/- 3.4 cm and 29.4 +/- 5.7 degrees, respectively) and fourth weeks of treatment (12.44 +/- 10.5 cm and 23.28 +/- 6.2, respectively; p < 0.05). There was no significant difference in the RTV between the treatment weeks for either the Flutter (R) VRP1 or PEP. Conclusion: The use of the Flutter (R) VRP1 for four weeks is capable of altering the respiratory secretion transport properties, and this alteration is related to the high frequency oscillation component. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ELECTROMYOGRAPHIC AMPLITUDE RATIO OF SERRATUS ANTERIOR AND UPPER TRAPEZIUS MUSCLES DURING MODIFIED PUSH-UPS AND BENCH PRESS EXERCISES

Imbalance and weakness of the serratus anterior and upper trapezius force couple have been described in patients with shoulder dysfunction. There is interest in identifying exercises that selectively activate these muscles and including it in rehabilitation protocols. This study aims to verify the UT/SA electromyographic (EMG) amplitude ratio, performed in different upper limb exercises and on two bases of support. Twelve healthy men were tested (average age = 22.8 +/- 3.1 years), and surface EMG was recorded from the upper trapezius and serratus anterior using single differential surface electrodes. Volunteers performed isometric contractions over a stable base of support and on a Swiss ball during the wall push-up (WP), bench press (BP), and push-up (PU) exercises. All SEMG data are reported as a percentage of root mean square or integral of linear envelope from the maximal value obtained in one of three maximal voluntary contractions for each muscle studied. A linear mixed-effect model was performed to compare UT/SA ratio values. The WP, BP, and PU exercises showed UT/SA ratio mean +/- SD values of 0.69 +/- 0.72, 0.14 +/- 0.12, and 0.39 +/- 0.37 for stable surfaces, respectively, whereas for unstable surfaces, the values were 0.73 +/- 0.67, 0.43 +/- 0.39, and 0.32 +/- 0.30. The results demonstrate that UT/SA ratio was influenced by the exercises and by the upper limb base of support. The practical application is to show that BP on a stable surface is the exercise preferred over WP and PU on either surfaces for serratus anterior muscle training in patients with imbalance between the UT/SA force couple or serratus anterior weakness.

Gingival recession in maxillary canines and central incisors of individuals with clefts

Background. Mucogingival alterations are inherent to clefts and may be worsened by the several plastic surgeries required in these individuals. Objective. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence, severity, and some possible etiologic factors of gingival recessions in teeth adjacent to the cleft. Study design. A total of 641 teeth ( maxillary canines and central incisors) of 193 individuals with cleft lip and/or palate were examined. A generalized linear model was used, and the Wilcoxon test was used to compare the recession with cleft types. Results. Comparison among cleft types as to the presence of recession revealed a statistically significant positive relationship for the maxillary right and left central incisors only in the group with left cleft lip, alveolus, and palate (P = .034). The most frequently affected tooth was the right maxillary canine (26.16%). Conclusion. The prevalence of recession in teeth close to the cleft was higher, although it was not very severe. (Oral Surg Oral Med Oral Pathol Oral Radiol Endod 2010; 109: 37-45)

Fluctuating abundance of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in a calving ground off coastal Brazil

The humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) population that uses Abrolhos Bank, off the east coast of Brazil as a breeding ground is increasing. To describe temporal changes in the relative abundance of humpback whales around Abrolhos, seven years (1998-2004) of whale count data were collected during July through to November. During one-hour-scans, observers determined group size within 9.3 km (5 n.m.) of a land-based observing station. A total Of 930 scans, comprising 7996 sightings of adults and 2044 calves were analysed using generalized linear models that included variables for time of day, day of the season, years and two-way interactions as possible predictors. The pattern observed was the gradual build-up and decline in whale counts within seasons. Patterns and peaks of adult and calf counts varied among years. Although fluctuation was observed, there was generally an increasing trend in adult counts among years. Calf counts increased only in 2004. These fluctuations may have been caused by some environmental conditions in humpback whales` summering grounds and also by changes in spatial-temporal concentrations in Abrolhos Bank. The general pattern observed within the study area mirrored what was observed in the whole Abrolhos Bank. Knowledge of the consistency with which humpback whales use this important nursing area should prove beneficial for designing future monitoring programmes especially related to whale watching activities around Abrolhos Archipelago.

Methods of Estimation in Multiple Linear Regression: Application to Clinical Data

Nesse artigo, tem-se o interesse em avaliar diferentes estratégias de estimação de parâmetros para um modelo de regressão linear múltipla. Para a estimação dos parâmetros do modelo foram utilizados dados de um ensaio clínico em que o interesse foi verificar se o ensaio mecânico da propriedade de força máxima (EM-FM) está associada com a massa femoral, com o diâmetro femoral e com o grupo experimental de ratas ovariectomizadas da raça Rattus norvegicus albinus, variedade Wistar. Para a estimação dos parâmetros do modelo serão comparadas três metodologias: a metodologia clássica, baseada no método dos mínimos quadrados; a metodologia Bayesiana, baseada no teorema de Bayes; e o método Bootstrap, baseado em processos de reamostragem.