Comparison between detailed model simulation and artificial neural network for forecasting building energy consumption

There are several ways to attempt to model a building and its heat gains from external sources as well as internal ones in order to evaluate a proper operation, audit retrofit actions, and forecast energy consumption. Different techniques, varying from simple regression to models that are based on physical principles, can be used for simulation. A frequent hypothesis for all these models is that the input variables should be based on realistic data when they are available, otherwise the evaluation of energy consumption might be highly under or over estimated. In this paper, a comparison is made between a simple model based on artificial neural network (ANN) and a model that is based on physical principles (EnergyPlus) as an auditing and predicting tool in order to forecast building energy consumption. The Administration Building of the University of Sao Paulo is used as a case study. The building energy consumption profiles are collected as well as the campus meteorological data. Results show that both models are suitable for energy consumption forecast. Additionally, a parametric analysis is carried out for the considered building on EnergyPlus in order to evaluate the influence of several parameters such as the building profile occupation and weather data on such forecasting. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Occurrence of AFM(1) in urine samples of a Brazilian population and association with food consumption

This survey evaluated the presence of AFM(1) in human urine samples from a specific Brazilian population, as well as corn, peanut, and milk consumption measured by two types of food inquiry. Urine samples from donors who live in the city of Piracicaba, State of Sao Paulo, Brazil were analyzed to detect the presence of aflatoxin M(1) (AFM(1)). an aflatoxin B(1) metabolite, which may be used as aflatoxin B(1) exposure biomarker. The AFM(1) analysis was performed using immunoaffinity clean-up and detection by high-performance-liquid chromatography with fluorescence detector. A total of 69 samples were analyzed and 45 of them (65%) presented contaminations >= 1.8 pg ml(-1), which was the limit of quantification (LOQ). Seventy eight percent (n = 54) of the samples presented detectable concentrations of AFM(1) (>0.6 pg ml(-1)). The AFM(1) concentration among samples above LOQ ranged from 1.8 to 39.9 pg ml(-1). There were differences in food consumption profile among donors, although no association was found between food consumption and AFM(1) concentration in urine. The high frequency of positive samples suggests exposure of the populations studied to aflatoxins. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Saxitoxins accumulation by freshwater tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) for human consumption

The accumulation of saxitoxins (STXs) in fish from freshwater aquaculture was investigated for the first time in the present study. Cyanotoxins have been monitored in liver and muscle samples of Oreochromis miloticus by chromatographic methods, both before and after the deputation process. The results show that tilapia can accumulate STXs. Our findings suggest that deputation with clean water is an alternative process to eliminate STXs from fish and, therefore, improve the safety of tilapia for consumers. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lepidopteran larva consumption of soybean foliage: basis for developing multiple-species economic thresholds for pest management decisions

BACKGROUND: Defoliation by Anticarsia gemmatalis (Hubner), Pseudoplusia includens (Walker), Spodoptera eridania (Cramer), S. cosmioides (Walker) and S. frugiperda (JE Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) was evaluated in four soybean genotypes. A multiple-species economic threshold (ET), based upon the species` feeding capacity, is proposed with the aim of improving growers` management decisions on when to initiate control measures for the species complex. RESULTS: Consumption by A. gemmatalis, S. cosmioides or S. eridania on different genotypes was similar. The highest consumption of P. includens was 92.7 cm(2) on Codetec 219RR; that of S. frugiperda was 118 cm(2) on Codetec 219RR and 115.1 cm(2) on MSoy 8787RR. The insect injury equivalent for S. cosmoides, calculated on the basis of insect consumption, was double the standard consumption by A. gemmatalis, and statistically different from the other species tested, which were similar to each other. CONCLUSIONS: As S. cosmioides always defoliated nearly twice the leaf area of the other species, the injury equivalent would be 2 for this lepidopteran species and 1 for the other species. The recommended multiple-species ET to trigger the beginning of insect control would then be 20 insect equivalents per linear metre. (C) 2010 Society of Chemical Industry

Quantification of the environmental impacts of road conditions in Brazil

This study evaluates the impacts of Brazilian highway conditions on fuel consumption and, consequently, on carbon dioxide (COO emissions. For the purpose of this study, highway conditions refer to the level of highway maintenance: the incidence of large potholes, large surface cracks, uneven sections, and debris. Primary computer collected data related to the fuel consumption of three types of trucks were analyzed. The data were derived from 88 trips taken over six routes, each route representative of one of two highway conditions: better or worse. Study results are initially presented for each type of truck being monitored. The results are then aggregated to approximate the entire Brazilian highway network. In all cases, results confirmed environmental benefits resulting from travel over the better routes. There was found to be an increase in energy efficiency from traveling better roads, which resulted in lower fuel consumption and lower CO(2) emissions. Statistical analysis of the results suggests that, in general, fuel consumption data were significant at *P < 0.05, rejecting the null hypothesis that average fuel consumption from traveling the better routes is statistically equal to average fuel consumption from traveling the worse routes. Improved Brazilian road conditions would generate economic benefits, reduce dependency on and consumption of fossil fuels (due to the increase in energy efficiency), and reduce CO(2) emissions. These findings may have additional relevancy if Brazil needs to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to reach future Kyoto Protocol`s emissions targets, which should take effect in January 2013. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Feeding Dietary Mannan Oligosaccharides to Juvenile Nile Tilapis, Oreochromis niloticus, Has No Effect on Hematological Parameters and Showed Decreased Feed Consumption

Impaired immune system by environmental stressors can lead fishes to be more susceptible to diseases that limit the economic development of aquaculture systems. This study was set out to determine the effect of six levels of mannan oligosaccharides (MOS; ActiveMOS((R)); Biorigin, Lencois Paulista, Sao Paulo, Brazil) on the performance index and hematology of Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus juveniles. Fish (13.62 g) were randomly distributed into 18 plastic aquaria (300 L; 20 fishes per aquarium) and fed during 45 d with a commercial diet supplemented with 0, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, and 1% dietary MOS, in a totally randomized design trial (n = 3); biometrical and hematological data were collected and analyzed. There were no significant differences in hematological parameters between fish fed control and MOS supplementation diets, and daily feed consumption (FC) decreased (P < 0.05) with increasing levels of dietary MOS. Dietary MOS did not increase leukocyte count and presented negative effects on FC of Nile tilapia. At 0.4% MOS supplementation, the individual weight gain was higher in absolute values but not different (P > 0.05) compared to control diet.

Associations between glutathione peroxidase-1 Pro198Leu polymorphism, selenium status, and DNA damage levels in obese women after consumption of Brazil nuts

Objective: Alterations in selenium (Se) status may result in suboptimal amounts of selenoproteins, which have been associated with increased oxidative stress levels. The Pro198Leu polymorphism at the glutathione peroxidase-1 (GPx1) gene is supposed to be functional. The response of Se status, GPx activity, and levels of DNA damage to a Se supplementation trial between the genotypes related to that polymorphism was investigated. Methods: A randomized trial was conducted with 37 morbidly obese women. Participants consumed one Brazil nut, which provided approximately 290 mu g of Se a day, for 8 wk. Blood Se concentrations, erythrocyte GPx activity, and DNA damage levels were measured at baseline and at 8 wk. The results were compared by genotypes. Results: The genotype frequencies were 0.487, 0.378, and 0.135 for Pro/Pro (the wild-type genotype), Pro/Leu, and Leu/Leu, respectively. At baseline, 100% of the subjects were Se deficient, and after the supplementation, there was an improvement in plasma Se (P < 0.001 for Pro/Pro and Pro/Leu, P < 0.05 for Leu/Leu), erythrocyte Se (P = 0.00 for Pro/Pro and Pro/Leu, P < 0.05 for Leu/Leu), and GPx activity (P = 0.00 for Pro/Pro, P < 0.00001 for Pro/Leu, P < 0.001 for Leu/Leu). In addition, the Pro/Pro group showed a decrease in DNA damage after Brazil nut consumption compared with baseline (P < 0.005), and those levels were higher in Leu/Leu subjects compared with those with the wild-type genotype (P < 0.05). Conclusion: Consumption of one unit of Brazil nuts daily effectively increases Se status and increases GPx activity in obese women, regardless of GPx1 Pro198Leu polymorphism. However, the evaluated biomarkers showed distinct results in response to the supplementation when the polymorphism was considered. (c) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Antioxidant Status in Humans after Consumption of Blackberry (Rubus fruticosus L.) Juices With and Without Defatted Milk

The present study was designed to evaluate the possible effect of the consumption of blackberry juices (BJ) prepared with water (BJW) and defatted milk (BJM) on the plasma antioxidant capacity and the. enzymatic and nonenzymatic antioxidants. A significant (p < 0.05) increase in the ascorbic acid content in the plasma was observed after intake of both BJs. However, no changes were observed in the plasma urate and a-tocopherol levels. An increase on the plasma antioxidant capacity, by ORAC assay, was observed only after consumption of BJW but not statistically significant. Plasma antioxidant capacity had a good positive correlation with ascorbic acid (r = 0.93) and a negative correlation with urate level (r = -0.79). No correlation was observed between antioxidant capacity and total cyanidin or total ellagic acid contents. Further, it was observed that plasma catalase increased following intake of BJ`s. No change was observed on the plasma and erythrocyte CAT and glutathione peroxidase activities. A significant decrease (p < 0.05) in the urinary antioxidant capacity between 1 and 4 h after intake of both BJs was observed. A good correlation was observed between total antioxidant capacity and urate and total cyanidin levels. These results suggested association between anthocyanin levels and CAT and a good correlation between antioxidant capacity and ascorbic acid in the human plasma after intake of BJs. Follow-up studies investigating the antioxidant properties and health benefits are necessary to demonstrate the health benefits of polyphenols.

Effects of margarines and butter consumption on lipid profiles, inflammation markers and lipid transfer to HDL particles in free-living subjects with the metabolic syndrome

Objective: Our purpose was to examine the effects of daily servings of butter, no-trans-fat margarine and plant sterol margarine, within recommended amounts, on plasma lipids, apolipoproteins (Apos), biomarkers of inflammation and endothelial dysfunction, and on the transfer of lipids to HDL particles in free-living subjects with the metabolic syndrome. Methods: This was a randomized, single-blind study where 53 metabolic syndrome subjects (62% women, mean age 54 years) received isocaloric servings of butter, no-trans-fat margarine or plant sterol margarine in addition to their usual diets for 5 weeks. The main outcome measures were plasma lipids, Apo, inflammatory and endothelial dysfunction markers (CRP, IL-6, CD40L or E-selectin), small dense LDL cholesterol concentrations and in vitro radioactive lipid transfer from cholesterol-rich emulsions to HDL. Difference among groups was evaluated by analysis of variance. Results: There was a significant reduction in Apo-B (-10.4 %, P = 0.043) and in the Apo-B/Apo-A-1 ratio (-11.1%, P = 0.034) with plant sterol margarine. No changes in plasma lipids were noticed with butter and no-trans-fat margarine. Transfer rates of lipids to HDL were reduced in the no-trans-fat margarine group: triglycerides -42.0%, (P<0.001 vs butter and sterol margarine) and free cholesterol -16.2% (P = 0.006 vs sterol margarine). No significant effects were noted on the concentrations of inflammatory and endothelial dysfunction markers among the groups. Conclusions: In free-living subjects with the metabolic syndrome consumption of plant sterol and no-trans-fat margarines within recommended amounts reduced, respectively, Apo-B concentrations and the ability of HDL to accept lipids. European Journal of Clinical Nutrition (2010) 64, 1141-1149; doi:10.1038/ejcn.2010.122; published online 21 July 2010

Gender-specific vascular effects elicited by chronic ethanol consumption in rats: a role for inducible nitric oxide synthase

Background and purpose: Epidemiological data suggest that the risk of ethanol-associated cardiovascular disease is greater in men than in women. This study investigates the mechanisms underlying gender-specific vascular effects elicited by chronic ethanol consumption in rats. Experimental approach: Vascular reactivity experiments using standard muscle bath procedures were performed on isolated thoracic aortae from rats. mRNA and protein for inducible NO synthase (iNOS) and for endothelial NOS (eNOS) was assessed by RT-PCR or western blotting, respectively. Key results: In male rats, chronic ethanol consumption enhanced phenylephrine-induced contraction in both endothelium-intact and denuded aortic rings. However, in female rats, chronic ethanol consumption enhanced phenylephrine-induced contraction only in endothelium denuded aortic rings. After pre-incubation of endothelium-intact rings with L-NAME, both male and female ethanol-treated rats showed larger phenylephrine-induced contractions in aortic rings, compared to the control group. Acetylcholine-induced relaxation was not affected by ethanol consumption. The effects of ethanol on responses to phenylephrine were similar in ovariectomized (OVX) and intact (non-OVX) female rats. In the presence of aminoguanidine, but not 7-nitroindazole, the contractions to phenylephrine in rings from ethanol-treated female rats were greater than that found in control tissues in the presence of the inhibitors. mRNA levels for eNOS and iNOS were not altered by ethanol consumption. Ethanol intake reduced eNOS protein levels and increased iNOS protein levels in aorta from female rats. Conclusions and implications: Gender differences in the vascular effects elicited by chronic ethanol consumption were not related to ovarian hormones but seemed to involve the upregulation of iNOS.

Revisiting the interest rate puzzle

This article makes a connection between Lucas` (1978) asset pricing model and the macroeconomic dynamics for some selected countries. Both the relative risk aversion and the impatience for postponing consumption by synthesizing the investor behaviour can help to understand some key macroeconomic issues across countries, such as the savings decision and the real interest rate. I find that the government consumption makes worse the so-called `equity premium-interest rate puzzle`. The first root of the quadratic function for explaining the real interest rate can produce this puzzle, but not the second root. Thus, Mehra and Prescott (1985) identified only one possible solution.

An analysis of US greenhouse gas cap-and-trade proposals using a forward-looking economic model

We develop a forward-looking version of the recursive dynamic MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and apply it to examine the economic implications of proposals in the US Congress to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that shocks in the consumption path are smoothed out in the forward-looking model and that the lifetime welfare cost of GHG policy is lower than in the recursive model, since the forward-looking model can fully optimize over time. The forward-looking model allows us to explore issues for which it is uniquely well suited, including revenue-recycling and early action crediting. We find capital tax recycling to be more welfare-cost reducing than labor tax recycling because of its long-term effect on economic growth. Also, there are substantial incentives for early action credits; however, when spread over the full horizon of the policy they do not have a substantial effect on lifetime welfare costs.

Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Age and Method-dependent Variability of Predicted Oxygen Consumption in Congenital Heart Disease

Background and Purpose. There has been a lot of debate about the use of predicted oxygen consumption to calculate pulmonary vascular resistance using the Fick principle. We therefore comparatively analyzed predicted oxygen consumption in infants and children in specific age groups, using different methods (formulas), as an attempt to better understand the usefulness and limitations of predictions. Methods and Results. Four models (LaFarge & Miettinen, Bergstra et al., Lindahl, and Lundell et al.) were used to predict oxygen consumption in 200 acyanotic patients with congenital cardiac defects aged 0-2.0, > 2.0-4.0, > 4.0-6.0, and > 6.0-8.75 years (median 2.04 years). Significant differences were observed between the age groups (P < .001) and between the methods (P < .001), not related to diagnoses. Differences between methods were more impressive in the first age group (P < .01). In patients aged 0-2.0 years, the lowest values of oxygen consumption (corresponding to the highest estimates of pulmonary vascular resistance) were obtained with the method of Lindahl; above this age, any method except that of Lundell et al. Conclusions. Although measuring oxygen consumption is always preferable, a rational use of predictions, using different methods, may be of help in situations where measurements are definitely not possible.

The relationship between body mass index and the variation in plasma levels of triglycerides after short-term red wine consumption

BACKGROUND: Alcoholic beverages may have protective cardiovascular effects but are known to increase the plasma levels of triglycerides (TG). Both TG and the ratio of TO to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-cholesterol) are associated with increased cardiovascular risk. OBJECTIVES: To determine the predictive factors for variations in plasma levels of TO and the TG/HDL-cholesterol ratio in patients after they had consumed red wine for 14 days. METHODS: Forty-two subjects (64% men, 46 +/- 9 years, baseline body mass index [BMI] 25.13 +/- 2.76 kg/m(2)) were given red wine (12% or 12.2% alc/vol, 250 mL/day with meals). Plasma concentration of lipids and glucose were measured before and after red wine consumption. Blood was collected after 12 hours of fast and alcohol abstention. RESULTS: Red wine increased plasma levels of TO from 105 +/- 42 mg/dL to 120 +/- 56 mg/dL (P = .001) and the TG/HDL-cholesterol ratio from 2.16 +/- 1.10 to 2.50 +/- 1.66 (P = .014). In a multivariate linear regression model that included age, baseline BMI, blood pressure, lipids, and glucose, only BMI was independently predictive of the variation in plasma TO after red wine (beta coefficient 0.592, P < .001). BMI also predicted the variation in TG/HDL-cholesterol ratio (beta coefficient 0.505, P = .001, adjusted model). When individuals were divided into three categories, according to their BMI, the average percentage variation in TG after red wine was -4%, 17%, and 33% in the lower (19.60-24.45 kg/m(2)), intermediate, and greater (26.30-30.44 kg/m(2)) tertiles, respectively (P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with higher BMI, although nonobese, might be at greater risk for elevation in plasma TO levels and the TG/HDL-cholesterol ratio after short-term red wine consumption. (C) 2011 National Lipid Association. All rights reserved.