The STARD statement for reporting studies of diagnostic accuracy: Explanation and elaboration

The quality of reporting of studies of diagnostic accuracy is less than optimal. Complete and accurate reporting is necessary to enable readers to assess the potential for bias in the study and to evaluate the generalisability of the results. A group of scientists and editors has developed the STARD (Standards for Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy) statement to improve the reporting the quality of reporting of studies of diagnostic accuracy. The statement consists of a checklist of 25 items and flow diagram that authors can use to ensure that all relevant information is present. This explanatory document aims to facilitate the use, understanding and dissemination of the checklist. The document contains a clarification of the meaning, rationale and optimal use of each item on the checklist, as well as a short summary of the available evidence on bias and applicability. The STARD statement, checklist, flowchart and this explanation and elaboration document should be useful resources to improve reporting of diagnostic accuracy studies. Complete and informative reporting can only lead to better decisions in healthcare.

Linking superiority bias in the interpersonal and intergroup domains

The author conducted 2 studies to explore the link between superiority bias in the interpersonal and intergroup domains. Australian university students evaluated the extent to which various personality traits were more or less applicable to themselves than to other Australian university students in general. They then evaluated the extent to which the same traits were more or less applicable to Australians than to people from other countries in general. As expected, the more participants evaluated themselves as superior to other university students, the more they evaluated Australians as a whole as superior to people from other countries. This link between interpersonal and intergroup superiority biases explained 22.1% of variance in Study 1 and 33.6% of variance in Study 2. The author interprets the results of the 2 studies as support for fundamental principles of social identity theory: (a) that self-concept consists of not only one's personal self but also the social groups to which one belongs and (b) that people are motivated to view both levels of self in a relatively positive fashion.

HPGR model verification and scale-up

This paper summarises test results that were used to validate a model and scale-up procedure of the high pressure grinding roll (HPGR) which was developed at the JKMRC by Morrell et al. [Morrell, Lim, Tondo, David,1996. Modelling the high pressure grinding rolls. In: Mining Technology Conference, pp. 169-176.]. Verification of the model is based on results from four data sets that describe the performance of three industrial scale units fitted with both studded and smooth roll surfaces. The industrial units are currently in operation within the diamond mining industry and are represented by De Beers, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto. Ore samples from the De Beers and BHP Billiton operations were sent to the JKMRC for ore characterisation and HPGR laboratory-scale tests. Rio Tinto contributed an historical data set of tests completed during a previous research project. The results conclude that the modelling of the HPGR process has matured to a point where the model may be used to evaluate new and to optimise existing comminution circuits. The model prediction of product size distribution is good and has been found to be strongly dependent of the characteristics of the material being tested. The prediction of throughput and corresponding power draw (based on throughput) is sensitive to inconsistent gap/diameter ratios observed between laboratory-scale tests and full-scale operations. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving precision and reducing bias in biological surveys: estimating false-negative error rates

The use of presence/absence data in wildlife management and biological surveys is widespread. There is a growing interest in quantifying the sources of error associated with these data. We show that false-negative errors (failure to record a species when in fact it is present) can have a significant impact on statistical estimation of habitat models using simulated data. Then we introduce an extension of logistic modeling, the zero-inflated binomial (ZIB) model that permits the estimation of the rate of false-negative errors and the correction of estimates of the probability of occurrence for false-negative errors by using repeated. visits to the same site. Our simulations show that even relatively low rates of false negatives bias statistical estimates of habitat effects. The method with three repeated visits eliminates the bias, but estimates are relatively imprecise. Six repeated visits improve precision of estimates to levels comparable to that achieved with conventional statistics in the absence of false-negative errors In general, when error rates are less than or equal to50% greater efficiency is gained by adding more sites, whereas when error rates are >50% it is better to increase the number of repeated visits. We highlight the flexibility of the method with three case studies, clearly demonstrating the effect of false-negative errors for a range of commonly used survey methods.

Attentional bias toward fear-related stimuli: An investigation with nonselected children and adults and children with anxiety disorders

Research investigating anxiety-related attentional bias for emotional information in anxious and nonanxious children has been equivocal with regard to whether a bias for fear-related stimuli is unique to anxious children or is common to children in general. Moreover, recent cognitive theories have proposed that an attentional bias for objectively threatening stimuli may be common to all individuals, with this effect enhanced in anxious individuals. The current study investigated whether an attentional bias toward fear-related pictures could be found in nonselected children (n = 105) and adults (n = 47) and whether a sample of clinically anxious children (n = 23) displayed an attentional bias for fear-related pictures over and above that expected for nonselected children. Participants completed a dot-probe task that employed fear-related, neutral, and pleasant pictures. As expected, both adults and children showed a stronger attentional bias toward fear-related pictures than toward pleasant pictures. Consistent with some findings in the childhood domain, the extent of the attentional bias toward fear-related pictures did not differ significantly between anxious children and nonselected children. However, compared with nonselected children, anxious children showed a stronger attentional bias overall toward affective picture stimuli. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Differences in mail and telephone responses to self-rated health: use of multiple imputation in correcting for response bias

Objectives: To estimate differences in self-rated health by mode of administration and to assess the value of multiple imputation to make self-rated health comparable for telephone and mail. Methods: In 1996, Survey 1 of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health was answered by mail. In 1998, 706 and 11,595 mid-age women answered Survey 2 by telephone and mail respectively. Self-rated health was measured by the physical and mental health scores of the SF-36. Mean change in SF-36 scores between Surveys 1 and 2 were compared for telephone and mail respondents to Survey 2, before and after adjustment for socio-demographic and health characteristics. Missing values and SF-36 scores for telephone respondents at Survey 2 were imputed from SF-36 mail responses and telephone and mail responses to socio-demographic and health questions. Results: At Survey 2, self-rated health improved for telephone respondents but not mail respondents. After adjustment, mean changes in physical health and mental health scores remained higher (0.4 and 1.6 respectively) for telephone respondents compared with mail respondents (-1.2 and 0.1 respectively). Multiple imputation yielded adjusted changes in SF-36 scores that were similar for telephone and mail respondents. Conclusions and Implications: The effect of mode of administration on the change in mental health is important given that a difference of two points in SF-36 scores is accepted as clinically meaningful. Health evaluators should be aware of and adjust for the effects of mode of administration on self-rated health. Multiple imputation is one method that may be used to adjust SF-36 scores for mode of administration bias.

Lifetime prevalence estimates of major depression: An indirect estimation method and a quantification of recall bias

The measurement of lifetime prevalence of depression in cross-sectional surveys is biased by recall problems. We estimated it indirectly for two countries using modelling, and quantified the underestimation in the empirical estimate for one. A microsimulation model was used to generate population-based epidemiological measures of depression. We fitted the model to 1-and 12-month prevalence data from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS) and the Australian Adult Mental Health and Wellbeing Survey. The lowest proportion of cases ever having an episode in their life is 30% of men and 40% of women, for both countries. This corresponds to a lifetime prevalence of 20 and 30%, respectively, in a cross-sectional setting (aged 15-65). The NEMESIS data were 38% lower than these estimates. We conclude that modelling enabled us to estimate lifetime prevalence of depression indirectly. This method is useful in the absence of direct measurement, but also showed that direct estimates are underestimated by recall bias and by the cross-sectional setting.

Off-line signature verification and forgery detection using fuzzy modeling

Automatic signature verification is a well-established and an active area of research with numerous applications such as bank check verification, ATM access, etc. This paper proposes a novel approach to the problem of automatic off-line signature verification and forgery detection. The proposed approach is based on fuzzy modeling that employs the Takagi-Sugeno (TS) model. Signature verification and forgery detection are carried out using angle features extracted from box approach. Each feature corresponds to a fuzzy set. The features are fuzzified by an exponential membership function involved in the TS model, which is modified to include structural parameters. The structural parameters are devised to take account of possible variations due to handwriting styles and to reflect moods. The membership functions constitute weights in the TS model. The optimization of the output of the TS model with respect to the structural parameters yields the solution for the parameters. We have also derived two TS models by considering a rule for each input feature in the first formulation (Multiple rules) and by considering a single rule for all input features in the second formulation. In this work, we have found that TS model with multiple rules is better than TS model with single rule for detecting three types of forgeries; random, skilled and unskilled from a large database of sample signatures in addition to verifying genuine signatures. We have also devised three approaches, viz., an innovative approach and two intuitive approaches using the TS model with multiple rules for improved performance. (C) 2004 Pattern Recognition Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Attentional bias to pictures of fear-relevant animals in a dot probe task

Attentional bias to fear-relevant animals was assessed in 69 participants not preselected on self-reported anxiety with the use of a dot probe task showing pictures of snakes, spiders, mushrooms, and flowers. Probes that replaced the fear-relevant stimuli (snakes and spiders) were found faster than probes that replaced the non-fear-relevant stimuli, indicating an attentional bias in the entire sample. The bias was not correlated with self-reported state or trait anxiety or with general fearfulness. Participants reporting higher levels of spider fear showed an enhanced bias to spiders, but the bias remained significant in low scorers. The bias to snake pictures was not related to snake fear and was significant in high and low scorers. These results indicate preferential processing of fear-relevant stimuli in an unselected sample.

Correcting for numerator/denominator bias when assessing changing inequalites in occupational class mortality, Australia 1981-2002

Objective Comparisons of the changing patterns of inequalities in occupational mortality provide one way to monitor the achievement of equity goals. However, previous comparisons have not corrected for numerator/denominator bias, which is a consequence of the different ways in which occupational details are recorded on death certificates and on census forms. The objective of this study was to measure the impact of this bias on mortality rates and ratios over time. Methods Using data provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, we examined the evidence for bias over the period 1981-2002, and used imputation methods to adjust for this bias. We compared unadjusted with imputed rates of mortality for manual/non-manual workers. Findings Unadjusted data indicate increasing inequality in the age-adjusted rates of mortality for manual/non-manual workers during 1981-2002, Imputed data suggest that there have been modest fluctuations in the ratios of mortality for manual/non-manual workers during this time, but with evidence that inequalities have increased only in recent years and are now at historic highs. Conclusion We found that imputation for missing data leads to changes in estimates of inequalities related to social class in mortality for some years but not for others. Occupational class comparisons should be imputed or otherwise adjusted for missing data on census or death certificates.

Bias, precision and heritability of self-reported and clinically measured height in Australian twins

Many studies of quantitative and disease traits in human genetics rely upon self-reported measures. Such measures are based on questionnaires or interviews and are often cheaper and more readily available than alternatives. However, the precision and potential bias cannot usually be assessed. Here we report a detailed quantitative genetic analysis of stature. We characterise the degree of measurement error by utilising a large sample of Australian twin pairs (857 MZ, 815 DZ) with both clinical and self-reported measures of height. Self-report height measurements are shown to be more variable than clinical measures. This has led to lowered estimates of heritability in many previous studies of stature. In our twin sample the heritability estimate for clinical height exceeded 90%. Repeated measures analysis shows that 2-3 times as many self-report measures are required to recover heritability estimates similar to those obtained from clinical measures. Bivariate genetic repeated measures analysis of self-report and clinical height measures showed an additive genetic correlation > 0.98. We show that the accuracy of self-report height is upwardly biased in older individuals and in individuals of short stature. By comparing clinical and self-report measures we also showed that there was a genetic component to females systematically reporting their height incorrectly; this phenomenon appeared to not be present in males. The results from the measurement error analysis were subsequently used to assess the effects of error on the power to detect linkage in a genome scan. Moderate reduction in error (through the use of accurate clinical or multiple self-report measures) increased the effective sample size by 22%; elimination of measurement error led to increases in effective sample size of 41%.

Flexible proof reuse for software verification

Proof reuse, or analogical reasoning, involves reusing the proof of a source theorem in the proof of a target conjecture. We have developed a method for proof reuse that is based on the generalisation replay paradigm described in the literature, in which a generalisation of the source proof is replayed to construct the target proof. In this paper, we describe the novel aspects of our method, which include a technique for producing more accurate source proof generalisations (using knowledge of the target goal), as well as a flexible replay strategy that allows the user to set various parameters to control the size and the shape of the search space. Finally, we report on the results of applying this method to a case study from the realm of software verification.