Conditional risk, return and contagion in the banking sector in Asia

This paper investigates risk and return in the banking sector in three Asian markets of Taiwan, China and Hong Kong. The study focuses on the risk-return relation in a conditional factor GARCH-M framework that controls for time-series effects. The factor approach is adopted to incorporate intra-industry contagion and an analysis of spillovers between large banks and small banks. Finally, the study provides evidence on these relations before and after the Asian financial crisis of 1997. The results are generally consistent across the markets and with expectations.

The contagion of international terrorism and its effects on the firm in an interconnected world

International trade and investment economies are highly integrated and interdependent and can be exploited by organized, international terrorism. The network of inter dependencies in the international economy means that a terrorist attack has the potential to disrupt the functioning of the network, so the effects can reverberate around the world. Governments can control the distributed effects of terrorism by auditing industrial networks to reveal and protect critical hubs and by promoting flexibility in production and distribution of goods and services to improve resilience in the economy. To explain these network effects, the authors draw on the new science of complex networks which has been applied to the physical sciences and is now increasingly being used to explain organizational and economic phenomena.