Vector Error-Correction Models in a consumer packaged goods category forecasting decision support system

A framework for developing marketing category management decision support systems (DSS) based upon the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model is extended. Since the BVAR model is vulnerable to permanent and temporary shifts in purchasing patterns over time, a form that can correct for the shifts and still provide the other advantages of the BVAR is a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model (BVECM). We present the mechanics of extending the DSS to move from a BVAR model to the BVECM model for the category management problem. Several additional iterative steps are required in the DSS to allow the decision maker to arrive at the best forecast possible. The revised marketing DSS framework and model fitting procedures are described. Validation is conducted on a sample problem.

Wiring the country: Local telecommunications and Australian rural communities

In rural Australia in the early twenty-first century, telecommunications reform has seen the rise of local telecommunications as a new way to wire the country, delivering new technologies and meeting community needs and aspirations. 1his paper discusses the prospects for local telecommunications in light of a research project on online rural communities commissioned by the Telstra Consumer Consultative Council. Based on interviews conducted in three small towns in rural eastern Australia, the paper examines the role of community networking as a new force in telecommunications service delivery, posing questions for local and regional communications policy development.

Optimal price regulation in a growth model with monopolistic suppliers of intermediate goods

In this paper we investigate the trade-off faced by regulators who must set a price for an intermediate good somewhere between the marginal cost and the monopoly price. We utilize a growth model with monopolistic suppliers of intermediate goods. Investment in innovation is required to produce a new intermediate good. Marginal cost pricing deters innovation, while monopoly pricing maximizes innovation and economic growth at the cost of some static inefficiency. We demonstrate the existence of a second-best price above the marginal cost but below the monopoly price, which maximizes consumer welfare. Simulation results suggest that substantial reductions in consumption, production, growth, and welfare occur where regulators focus on static efficiency issues by setting prices at or near marginal cost.

Policies for saving a rare Australian glider: economics and ecology

This paper considers the economics of conserving a species with mainly non-use value, the endangered mahogany glider. Three serial surveys of Brisbane residents provide data on the knowledge of respondents about the mahogany glider. The results supply information about the attitudes of respondents to the mahogany glider, to its conservation and relevant public policies, and about variations in these factors as the knowledge of participants of the mahogany glider alters. Similarly, data are provided and analysed about the willingness to pay of respondents to conserve the mahogany glider and how it changes. Population viability analysis is applied to estimate the required habitat area for a minimum viable population of the mahogany glider to ensure at least a 95% probability of its survival for 100 years. Places are identified in Queensland where the requisite minimum area of critical habitat can be conserved. Using the survey results as a basis, the likely willingness of groups of Australians to pay for the conservation of the mahogany glider is estimated and consequently their willingness to pay for the minimum required area of its habitat. Methods for estimating the cost of protecting this habitat are outlined. Australia-wide benefits are estimated to exceed the costs. Establishing a national park containing the minimum viable population of the mahogany glider is an appealing management option. This would also be beneficial in conserving other endangered wildlife species and ecosystems. Therefore, additional economic benefits to those estimated on account of the mahogany glider itself can be obtained. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors underlying support or opposition to biotechnology among Australian food consumers and implications for retailer-led food regulation

Despite current findings that consumers, on average, have negative attitudes to biotechnologies such as cloning and genetic engineering, considerable variability can be found in the direction and strength of these attitudes. This paper presents a path analysis of attitudinal, motivational, demographic and behavioural variables that influence consumer dispositions towards biotechnology. Among these variables, those found to be most important were: consumers' level of motivation to find natural foods; the extent to which they were motivated by convenience; whether they did the shopping for their household on a regular basis; and their sex. In terms of direct effects on dispositions to biotechnology, motivation to find natural foods had a very strong negative effect while convenience had a very strong positive effect. Sex had a moderate direct effect with women less likely to be positively disposed towards biotechnology than men. In an apparent contradiction, taking responsibility for household shopping had an equally strong positive effect on both naturalness and convenience. However, sex also played a crucial role here with a very strong effect on motivation to find natural foods (women more motivated), a minor effect on convenience (women less motivated) and a strong effect on responsibility for household shopping (women more likely to shop). The policy implications of these findings are important, given the apparent oppositional trends of some sections of the food industry to endorse biotechnology, and of the supermarkets to deliver `clean and green' non-GM foods to consumers. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A consumer-based method for retailer equity measurement: Results of an empirical study

This research extends the consumer-based brand equity measurement approach to the measurement of the equity associated with retailers. This paper also addresses some of the limitations associated with current retailer equity measurement such as a lack of clarity regarding its nature and dimensionality. We conceptualise retailer equity as a four-dimensional construct comprising retailer awareness, retailer associations, perceived retailer quality, and retailer loyalty. The paper reports the result of an empirical study of a convenience sample of 601 shopping mall consumers at an Australian state capital city. Following a confirmatory factor analysis using structural equation modelling to examine the dimensionality of the retailer equity construct, the proposed model is tested for two retailer categories: department stores and speciality stores. Results confirm the hypothesised four-dimensional structure.

Gender and consumer search of the internet

The role of gender differences in the consumption of goods and services is well established in many areas of consumer behaviour and computer use and yet there has been only limited research into such gender-based differences in the information search behaviour of Internet users. This paper reports the gender-based results of an exploratory study of consumer external information search of the web. The study investigated consumer characteristics, web search behaviour, and the post web search outcomes of purchase decision status and consumer judgements of search usefulness and satisfaction. Gender-based differences are reported in all three areas. Consideration of the results suggests they are issues which could inhibit the adoption of online purchasing by female web users. The implications of these results are discussed and a future research agenda proposed.