An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Mobile digital technology: Emerging issues for marketing

The growth of direct marketing has been attributed to rapid advances in technology and the changing market context. The fundamental ability of direct marketers to communicate with consumers and to elicit a response, combined with the ubiquitous nature and power of mobile digital technology, provides a synergy that will increase the potential for the success of direct marketing. The aim of this paper is to provide an analytical framework identifying the developments in the digital environment from e-marketing to m-marketing, and to alert direct marketers to the enhanced capabilities available to them.

Service quality and consumers' experience: Towards an interpretive approach

As marketers and researchers we understand quality from the consumer's perspective, and throughout contemporary service quality literature there is an emphasis on what the consumer is looking for, or at least that is the intention. Through examining the underlying assumptions of dominant service quality theories, an implicit dualistic ontology is highlighted (where subject and object are considered independent) and argued to effectively negate the said necessary consumer orientation. This fundamental assumption is discussed, as are the implications, following a critical review of dominant service quality models. Consequently, we propose an alternative approach to service quality research that aims towards a more genuine understanding of the consumer's perspective on quality experienced within a service context. Essentially, contemporary service quality research is suggested to be limited in its inherent third-person perspective and the interpretive, specifically phenomenographic, approach put forward here is suggested as a means of achieving a first-person perspective on service quality.

An investigation into commitment in non-Western industrial marketing relationships

This paper reports an investigation into the antecedents of commitment in non-Western industrial marketing relationships. The authors draw the antecedents from extant literature and posit that commitment is related to trust (integrity and reliability), communication quality, conflict, and similarity (social, ethnic, and economic). It is further argued that trust mediates the effects of communication, conflict, and similarity on commitment. As an extension, the authors examine the moderating effects of normative contracts (an implicit understanding of roles and responsibilities) on the construct interrelationships. The hypotheses are tested using data collected from approximately 150 industrial marketing relationships sampled from overseas Chinese firms. The results generally support the authors' framework; however, the mediating hypotheses are not supported. There is evidence of systematic differences in the effects of the studied antecedents on commitment and trust. Furthermore, a multigroup analysis provides evidence of significant moderating effects due to contracting mode. The study provides new insights into the theory and practice of industrial marketing. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Application of fairness theory to service failures and service recovery

This article presents a fairness theory-based conceptual framework for studying and managing consumers’ emotions during service recovery attempts. The conceptual framework highlights the central role played by counterfactual thinking and accountability. Findings from five focus groups are also presented to lend further support to the conceptual framework. Essentially, the article argues that a service failure event triggers an emotional response in the consumer, and from here the consumer commences an assessment of the situation, considering procedural justice, interactional justice, and distributive justice elements, while engaging in counterfactual thinking and apportioning accountability. More specifically, the customer assesses whether the service provider could and should have done something more to remedy the problem and how the customer would have felt had these actions been taken. The authors argue that during this process situational effort is taken into account when assessing accountability. When service providers do not appear to exhibit an appropriate level of effort, consumers attribute this to the service provider not caring. This in turn leads to the customer feeling more negative emotions, such as anger and frustration. Managerial implications of the study are discussed.

"Owned by...". Country of origin's new cue

This study identifies and explores a new country of origin (COO) cue, “owned by….” The importance of three extrinsic cues “owned by …,” “made in …” and price was examined using conjoint analysis. Data were collected from a sample of 268 undergraduate students familiar with color televisions. Segments were formed using cluster analysis and analyzed using multiple discriminant analysis. “Owned by …” was found to be important and distinct from the “made in …” cue. Segments based on the two COO cues were identified using importance weights and individual utilities. When segments were formed using individual utilities the individual difference construct, economic nationalism, provided discriminatory power while consumer ethnocentrism did not, supporting the hypothesis that economic nationalism and consumer ethnocentrism differ. Practitioners can now use “owned by …” knowing that it forms an important and distinct marketing tool. Limitations and future research are discussed.