An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Accurate orientation relationship between ferrite and austenite in low carbon martensite and granular bainite

Convergent beam Kikuchi diffraction was used to accurately determine the orientation relationships (ORs) between austenite and martensite, and between austenite and granular bainite in two Fe-Ni-Mn-C alloys. Both martensite and granular bainite have the same crystallographic characteristics with the OR: (111)(A)parallel to(101)(F), [1 (1) over bar0](A) 2.5degrees +/- 2degrees from [1 (1) over bar(1) over bar](B).

Adsorption of aromatic compounds onto activated carbons: Effects of the orientation of the adsorbates

Adsorption of model aromatic compounds onto two untreated activated carbons with similar physical and chemical properties is investigated. The solution pH of all experiments was lowered so that all solutes were in their molecular forms. It is shown that the difference in the maximum adsorption capacities of the solutes was mainly attributed to the difference in the sizes of the molecules. This new experimental finding is significant to gaining insight into the orientation of the adsorbed phase and hence the adsorption mechanism of aromatic compounds in aqueous solutions. It is shown that the adsorption of aromatic compounds in a stacked motif for pi-pi interactions is unlikely, and in the absence of physical restrictions such as pore width, a T-shaped motif is the preferred orientation.

Microstructural evolution of the Serido Belt, NE-Brazil: the effect of two tectonic events on development of c-axis preferred orientation in quartz

The polyphase evolution of the Serido Belt (NE-Brazil) includes D, crust formation at 2.3-2.1 Ga, D-2 thrust tectonics at 1.9 Ga and crustal reworking by D-3 strike-slip shear zones at 600 Ma. Microstructural investigations within mylonites associated with D-2 and D-3 events were used to constrain the tectono-thermal evolution of the belt. D-2 shear zones commenced at deeper crustal levels and high amphibolite facies conditions (600-650 degreesC) through grain boundary migration, subgrain rotation and operation of quartz Q-prism slip. Continued shearing and exhumation of the terrain forced the re-equilibration of high-T fabrics and the switching of slip systems from (c)-prism to positive and negative (a)-rhombs. During D-3, enhancement of ductility by dissipation of heat that came from syn-D-3 granites developed wide belts of amphibolite facies mylonites. Continued shearing, uplift and cooling of the region induced D-3 shear zones to act in ductile-brittle regimes, marked by fracturing and development of thinner belts of greenschist facies mylonites. During this event, switching from (a)-prism to a basal slip indicates a thermal path from 600 to 350 degreesC. Therefore, microstructures and quartz c-axis fabrics in polydeformed rocks from the Serido Belt preserve the record of two major events, which includes contrasting deformation mechanisms and thermal paths. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.