International order flows: Explaining equity and exchange rate returns

Macroeconomic models of equity and exchange rate returns perform poorly at high frequencies. The proportion of daily returns that these models explain is essentially zero. Instead of relying on macroeconomic determinants, we model equity price and exchange rate behavior based on a concept from microstructure – order flow. The international order flows are derived from belief changes of different investor groups in a two-country setting. We obtain a structural relationship between equity returns, exchange rate returns and their relationship to home and foreign equity market order flow. To test the model we construct daily aggregate order flow data from 800 million equity trades in the U.S. and France from 1999 to 2003. Almost 60% of the daily returns in the S&P100 index are explained jointly by exchange rate returns and aggregate order flows in both markets. As predicted by the model, daily exchange rate returns and order flow into the French market have significant incremental explanatory power for the daily S&P returns. The model implications are also validated for intraday returns.

Hydrophobic substances induce water stress in microbial cells

Ubiquitous noxious hydrophobic substances, such as hydrocarbons, pesticides and diverse industrial chemicals, stress biological systems and thereby affect their ability to mediate biosphere functions like element and energy cycling vital to biosphere health. Such chemically diverse compounds may have distinct toxic activities for cellular systems; they may also share a common mechanism of stress induction mediated by their hydrophobicity. We hypothesized that the stressful effects of, and cellular adaptations to, hydrophobic stressors operate at the level of water : macromolecule interactions. Here, we present evidence that: (i) hydrocarbons reduce structural interactions within and between cellular macromolecules, (ii) organic compatible solutes-metabolites that protect against osmotic and chaotrope-induced stresses-ameliorate this effect, (iii) toxic hydrophobic substances induce a potent form of water stress in macromolecular and cellular systems, and (iv) the stress mechanism of, and cellular responses to, hydrophobic substances are remarkably similar to those associated with chaotrope-induced water stress. These findings suggest that it may be possible to devise new interventions for microbial processes in both natural environments and industrial reactors to expand microbial tolerance of hydrophobic substances, and hence the biotic windows for such processes.

Characterization of RarA, a Novel AraC Family Multidrug Resistance Regulator in Klebsiella pneumoniae

Transcriptional regulators, such as SoxS, RamA, MarA, and Rob, which upregulate the AcrAB efflux pump, have been shown to be associated with multidrug resistance in clinically relevant Gram-negative bacteria. In addition to the multidrug resistance phenotype, these regulators have also been shown to play a role in the cellular metabolism and possibly the virulence potential of microbial cells. As such, the increased expression of these proteins is likely to cause pleiotropic phenotypes. Klebsiella pneumoniae is a major nosocomial pathogen which can express the SoxS, MarA, Rob, and RamA proteins, and the accompanying paper shows that the increased transcription of ramA is associated with tigecycline resistance (M. Veleba and T. Schneiders, Antimicrob. Agents Chemother. 56:4466-4467, 2012). Bioinformatic analyses of the available Klebsiella genome sequences show that an additional AraC-type regulator is encoded chromosomally. In this work, we characterize this novel AraC-type regulator, hereby called RarA (Regulator of antibiotic resistance A), which is encoded in K. pneumoniae, Enterobacter sp. 638, Serratia proteamaculans 568, and Enterobacter cloacae. We show that the overexpression of rarA results in a multidrug resistance phenotype which requires a functional AcrAB efflux pump but is independent of the other AraC regulators. Quantitative real-time PCR experiments show that rarA (MGH 78578 KPN_02968) and its neighboring efflux pump operon oqxAB (KPN_02969_02970) are consistently upregulated in clinical isolates collected from various geographical locations (Chile, Turkey, and Germany). Our results suggest that rarA overexpression upregulates the oqxAB efflux pump. Additionally, it appears that oqxR, encoding a GntR-type regulator adjacent to the oqxAB operon, is able to downregulate the expression of the oqxAB efflux pump, where OqxR complementation resulted in reductions to olaquindox MICs.

Relative biological effectiveness (RBE) and out-of-field cell survival responses to passive scattering and pencil beam scanning proton beam deliveries

The relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of passive scattered (PS) and pencil beam scanned (PBS) proton beam delivery techniques for uniform beam configurations was determined by clonogenic survival. The radiobiological impact of modulated beam configurations on cell survival occurring in- or out-of-field for both delivery techniques was determined with intercellular communication intact or physically inhibited. Cell survival responses were compared to those observed using a 6 MV photon beam produced with a linear accelerator. DU-145 cells showed no significant difference in survival response to proton beams delivered by PS and PBS or 6 MV photons taking into account a RBE of 1.1 for protons at the centre of the spread out Bragg peak. Significant out-of-field effects similar to those observed for 6 MV photons were observed for both PS and PBS proton deliveries with cell survival decreasing to 50-60% survival for scattered doses of 0.05 and 0.03 Gy for passive scattered and pencil beam scanned beams respectively. The observed out-of-field responses were shown to be dependent on intercellular communication between the in-and out-of-field cell populations. These data demonstrate, for the first time, a similar RBE between passive and actively scanned proton beams and confirm that out-of-field effects may be important determinants of cell survival following exposure to modulated photon and proton fields

The Role of Variation at AβPP, PSEN1, PSEN2, and MAPT in Late Onset Alzheimer's Disease

Rare mutations in AßPP, PSEN1, and PSEN2 cause uncommon early onset forms of Alzheimer's disease (AD), and common variants in MAPT are associated with risk of other neurodegenerative disorders. We sought to establish whether common genetic variation in these genes confer risk to the common form of AD which occurs later in life (>65 years). We therefore tested single-nucleotide polymorphisms at these loci for association with late-onset AD (LOAD) in a large case-control sample consisting of 3,940 cases and 13,373 controls. Single-marker analysis did not identify any variants that reached genome-wide significance, a result which is supported by other recent genome-wide association studies. However, we did observe a significant association at the MAPT locus using a gene-wide approach (p = 0.009). We also observed suggestive association between AD and the marker rs9468, which defines the H1 haplotype, an extended haplotype that spans the MAPT gene and has previously been implicated in other neurodegenerative disorders including Parkinson's disease, progressive supranuclear palsy, and corticobasal degeneration. In summary common variants at AßPP, PSEN1, and PSEN2 and MAPT are unlikely to make strong contributions to susceptibility for LOAD. However, the gene-wide effect observed at MAPT indicates a possible contribution to disease risk which requires further study.

Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies 11 new loci for anthropometric traits and provides insights into genetic architecture

Approaches exploiting trait distribution extremes may be used to identify loci associated with common traits, but it is unknown whether these loci are generalizable to the broader population. In a genome-wide search for loci associated with the upper versus the lower 5th percentiles of body mass index, height and waist-to-hip ratio, as well as clinical classes of obesity, including up to 263,407 individuals of European ancestry, we identified 4 new loci (IGFBP4, H6PD, RSRC1 and PPP2R2A) influencing height detected in the distribution tails and 7 new loci (HNF4G, RPTOR, GNAT2, MRPS33P4, ADCY9, HS6ST3 and ZZZ3) for clinical classes of obesity. Further, we find a large overlap in genetic structure and the distribution of variants between traits based on extremes and the general population and little etiological heterogeneity between obesity subgroups.

Anti-TNF antibody-induced psoriasiform skin lesions in patients with inflammatory bowel disease are characterised by interferon-γ-expressing Th1 cells and IL-17A/IL-22-expressing Th17 cells and respond to anti-IL-12/IL-23 antibody treatment

Background We analysed incidence, predictors, histological features and specific treatment options of anti-tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha) antibody-induced psoriasiform skin lesions in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD).

Design Patients with IBD were prospectively screened for anti-TNF-induced psoriasiform skin lesions. Patients were genotyped for IL23R and IL12B variants. Skin lesions were examined for infiltrating Th1 and Th17 cells. Patients with severe lesions were treated with the anti-interleukin (IL)-12/IL-23 p40 antibody ustekinumab.

Results Among 434 anti-TNF-treated patients with IBD, 21 (4.8%) developed psoriasiform skin lesions. Multiple logistic regression revealed smoking (p=0.007; OR 4.24, 95% CI 1.55 to 13.60) and an increased body mass index (p=0.029; OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.24) as main predictors for these lesions. Nine patients with Crohn's disease and with severe psoriasiform lesions and/or anti-TNF antibody-induced alopecia were successfully treated with the anti-p40-IL-12/IL-23 antibody ustekinumab (response rate 100%). Skin lesions were histologically characterised by infiltrates of IL-17A/IL-22-secreting T helper 17 (Th17) cells and interferon (IFN)-gamma-secreting Th1 cells and IFN-alpha-expressing cells. IL-17A expression was significantly stronger in patients requiring ustekinumab than in patients responding to topical therapy (p=0.001). IL23R genotyping suggests disease-modifying effects of rs11209026 (p.Arg381Gln) and rs7530511 (p.Leu310Pro) in patients requiring ustekinumab.

Conclusions New onset psoriasiform skin lesions develop in nearly 5% of anti-TNF-treated patients with IBD. We identified smoking as a main risk factor for developing these lesions. Anti-TNF-induced psoriasiform skin lesions are characterised by Th17 and Th1 cell infiltrates. The number of IL-17A-expressing T cells correlates with the severity of skin lesions. Anti-IL-12/IL23 antibody therapy is a highly effective therapy for these lesions.

Defining the role of common variation in the genomic and biological architecture of adult human height

Using genome-wide data from 253,288 individuals, we identified 697 variants at genome-wide significance that together explained one-fifth of the heritability for adult height. By testing different numbers of variants in independent studies, we show that the most strongly associated 1/42,000, 1/43,700 and 1/49,500 SNPs explained 1/421%, 1/424% and 1/429% of phenotypic variance. Furthermore, all common variants together captured 60% of heritability. The 697 variants clustered in 423 loci were enriched for genes, pathways and tissue types known to be involved in growth and together implicated genes and pathways not highlighted in earlier efforts, such as signaling by fibroblast growth factors, WNT/I 2-catenin and chondroitin sulfate-related genes. We identified several genes and pathways not previously connected with human skeletal growth, including mTOR, osteoglycin and binding of hyaluronic acid. Our results indicate a genetic architecture for human height that is characterized by a very large but finite number (thousands) of causal variants.

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms.

Genetic studies of body mass index yield new insights for obesity biology

Obesity is heritable and predisposes to many diseases. To understand the genetic basis of obesity better, here we conduct a genome-wide association study and Metabochip meta-analysis of body mass index (BMI), a measure commonly used to define obesity and assess adiposity, in up to 339,224 individuals. This analysis identifies 97 BMI-associated loci (P < 5 × 10(-8)), 56 of which are novel. Five loci demonstrate clear evidence of several independent association signals, and many loci have significant effects on other metabolic phenotypes. The 97 loci account for ∼2.7% of BMI variation, and genome-wide estimates suggest that common variation accounts for >20% of BMI variation. Pathway analyses provide strong support for a role of the central nervous system in obesity susceptibility and implicate new genes and pathways, including those related to synaptic function, glutamate signalling, insulin secretion/action, energy metabolism, lipid biology and adipogenesis.

Age- and Sex-Specific Causal Effects of Adiposity on Cardiovascular Risk Factors

Observational studies have reported different effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors across age and sex. Since cardiovascular risk factors are enriched in obese individuals, it has not been easy to dissect the effects of adiposity from those of other risk factors. We used a Mendelian randomization approach, applying a set of 32 genetic markers to estimate the causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, glycemic indices, circulating lipid levels, and markers of inflammation and liver disease in up to 67,553 individuals. All analyses were stratified by age (cutoff 55 years of age) and sex. The genetic score was associated with BMI in both nonstratified analysis (P = 2.8 × 10(-107)) and stratified analyses (all P < 3.3 × 10(-30)). We found evidence of a causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, fasting levels of insulin, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides in a nonstratified analysis and in the <55-year stratum. Further, we found evidence of a smaller causal effect on total cholesterol (P for difference = 0.015) in the ≥55-year stratum than in the <55-year stratum, a finding that could be explained by biology, survival bias, or differential medication. In conclusion, this study extends previous knowledge of the effects of adiposity by providing sex- and age-specific causal estimates on cardiovascular risk factors.

How much risk ought we to take? Exploring the possibilities of risk-sensitive consequentialism in the context of climate engineering

When it comes to assessing the deontic status of acts and policies in the context of risk and uncertainty, moral theories are often at a loss. In this paper we hope to show that employing a multi-dimensional consequentialist framework provides ethical guidance for decision-making in complex situations. The paper starts by briefly rehearsing consequentialist responses to the issue of risk, as well as their shortcomings. We then go on to present our own proposal based on three dimensions: wellbeing, fairness and probability. In the last section we apply our approach to a comparison of different climate policy options, including stratospheric solar-radiation management.

STAT3 regulated ARF expression suppresses prostate cancer metastasis

Prostate cancer (PCa) is the most prevalent cancer in men. Hyperactive STAT3 is thought to be oncogenic in PCa. However, targeting of the IL-6/STAT3 axis in PCa patients has failed to provide therapeutic benefit. Here we show that genetic inactivation of Stat3 or IL-6 signalling in a Pten-deficient PCa mouse model accelerates cancer progression leading to metastasis. Mechanistically, we identify p19(ARF) as a direct Stat3 target. Loss of Stat3 signalling disrupts the ARF-Mdm2-p53 tumour suppressor axis bypassing senescence. Strikingly, we also identify STAT3 and CDKN2A mutations in primary human PCa. STAT3 and CDKN2A deletions co-occurred with high frequency in PCa metastases. In accordance, loss of STAT3 and p14(ARF) expression in patient tumours correlates with increased risk of disease recurrence and metastatic PCa. Thus, STAT3 and ARF may be prognostic markers to stratify high from low risk PCa patients. Our findings challenge the current discussion on therapeutic benefit or risk of IL-6/STAT3 inhibition.