Time series wind power forecasting based on variant Gaussian process and TLBO

Due to the variability and stochastic nature of wind power system, accurate wind power forecasting has an important role in developing reliable and economic power system operation and control strategies. As wind variability is stochastic, Gaussian Process regression has recently been introduced to capture the randomness of wind energy. However, the disadvantages of Gaussian Process regression include its computation complexity and incapability to adapt to time varying time-series systems. A variant Gaussian Process for time series forecasting is introduced in this study to address these issues. This new method is shown to be capable of reducing computational complexity and increasing prediction accuracy. It is further proved that the forecasting result converges as the number of available data approaches innite. Further, a teaching learning based optimization (TLBO) method is used to train the model and to accelerate
the learning rate. The proposed modelling and optimization method is applied to forecast both the wind power generation of Ireland and that from a single wind farm to show the eectiveness of the proposed method.

Optimal generation scheduling of interconnected wind-coal intensive power systems

Large scale wind power generation complicated with restrictions on the tie line plans may lead to significant wind power curtailment and deep cycling of coal units during the valley load periods. This study proposes a dispatch strategy for interconnected wind-coal intensive power systems (WCISs). Wind power curtailment and cycling of coal units are included in the economic dispatch analysis of regional systems. Based on the day-ahead dispatch results, a tie line power plan adjustment strategy is implemented in the event of wind power curtailment or deep cycling occurring in the economic dispatch model, with the objective of reducing such effects. The dispatch strategy is designed based on the distinctive operation characteristics of interconnected WCISs, and dispatch results for regional systems in China show that the proposed strategy is feasible and can improve the overall system operation performance.

A multi vector energy analysis for interconnected power and gas systems

This paper presents the first multi vector energy analysis for the interconnected energy systems of Great Britain (GB) and Ireland. Both systems share a common high penetration of wind power, but significantly different security of supply outlooks. Ireland is heavily dependent on gas imports from GB, giving significance to the interconnected aspect of the methodology in addition to the gas and power interactions analysed. A fully realistic unit commitment and economic dispatch model coupled to an energy flow model of the gas supply network is developed. Extreme weather events driving increased domestic gas demand and low wind power output were utilised to increase gas supply network stress. Decreased wind profiles had a larger impact on system security than high domestic gas demand. However, the GB energy system was resilient during high demand periods but gas network stress limited the ramping capability of localised generating units. Additionally, gas system entry node congestion in the Irish system was shown to deliver a 40% increase in short run costs for generators. Gas storage was shown to reduce the impact of high demand driven congestion delivering a reduction in total generation costs of 14% in the period studied and reducing electricity imports from GB, significantly contributing to security of supply.

A novel methodology for analysis of large scale interconnected power and gas systems

The European Union continues to exert a large influence on the direction of member states energy policy. The 2020 targets for renewable energy integration have had significant impact on the operation of current power systems, forcing a rapid change from fossil fuel dominated systems to those with high levels of renewable power. Additionally, the overarching aim of an internal energy market throughout Europe has and will continue to place importance on multi-jurisdictional co-operation regarding energy supply. Combining these renewable energy and multi-jurisdictional supply goals results in a complicated multi-vector energy system, where the understanding of interactions between fossil fuels, renewable energy, interconnection and economic power system operation is increasingly important. This paper provides a novel and systematic methodology to fully understand the changing dynamics of interconnected energy systems from a gas and power perspective. A fully realistic unit commitment and economic dispatch model of the 2030 power systems in Great Britain and Ireland, combined with a representative gas transmission energy flow model is developed. The importance of multi-jurisdictional integrated energy system operation in one of the most strategically important renewable energy regions is demonstrated.

N-opcode analysis for android malware classification and categorization

Malware detection is a growing problem particularly on the Android mobile platform due to its increasing popularity and accessibility to numerous third party app markets. This has also been made worse by the increasingly sophisticated detection avoidance techniques employed by emerging malware families. This calls for more effective techniques for detection and classification of Android malware. Hence, in this paper we present an n-opcode analysis based approach that utilizes machine learning to classify and categorize Android malware. This approach enables automated feature discovery that eliminates the need for applying expert or domain knowledge to define the needed features. Our experiments on 2520 samples that were performed using up to 10-gram opcode features showed that an f-measure of 98% is achievable using this approach.

Data-Driven Dynamic Modeling of Coupled Thermal and Electric Outputs of Microturbines

Microturbines are among the most successfully commercialized distributed energy resources, especially when they are used for combined heat and power generation. However, the interrelated thermal and electrical system dynamic behaviors have not been fully investigated. This is technically challenging due to the complex thermo-fluid-mechanical energy conversion processes which introduce multiple time-scale dynamics and strong nonlinearity into the analysis. To tackle this problem, this paper proposes a simplified model which can predict the coupled thermal and electric output dynamics of microturbines. Considering the time-scale difference of various dynamic processes occuring within microturbines, the electromechanical subsystem is treated as a fast quasi-linear process while the thermo-mechanical subsystem is treated as a slow process with high nonlinearity. A three-stage subspace identification method is utilized to capture the dominant dynamics and predict the electric power output. For the thermo-mechanical process, a radial basis function model trained by the particle swarm optimization method is employed to handle the strong nonlinear characteristics. Experimental tests on a Capstone C30 microturbine show that the proposed modeling method can well capture the system dynamics and produce a good prediction of the coupled thermal and electric outputs in various operating modes.

Identification of Microturbine Model for Long-term Dynamic Analysis of Distribution Networks

As one of the most successfully commercialized distributed energy resources, the long-term effects of microturbines (MTs) on the distribution network has not been fully investigated due to the complex thermo-fluid-mechanical energy conversion processes. This is further complicated by the fact that the parameter and internal data of MTs are not always available to the electric utility, due to different ownerships and confidentiality concerns. To address this issue, a general modeling approach for MTs is proposed in this paper, which allows for the long-term simulation of the distribution network with multiple MTs. First, the feasibility of deriving a simplified MT model for long-term dynamic analysis of the distribution network is discussed, based on the physical understanding of dynamic processes that occurred within MTs. Then a three-stage identification method is developed in order to obtain a piecewise MT model and predict electro-mechanical system behaviors with saturation. Next, assisted with the electric power flow calculation tool, a fast simulation methodology is proposed to evaluate the long-term impact of multiple MTs on the distribution network. Finally, the model is verified by using Capstone C30 microturbine experiments, and further applied to the dynamic simulation of a modified IEEE 37-node test feeder with promising results.

Data-Driven Dynamic Prediction of Interrelated Heat and Electric Outputs of Microturbines

Microturbines are among the most successfully commercialized distributed energy resources, especially when they are used for combined heat and power generation. However, the interrelated thermal and electrical system dynamic behaviors have not been fully investigated. This is technically challenging due to the complex thermo-fluid-mechanical energy conversion processes which introduce multiple time-scale dynamics and strong nonlinearity into the analysis. To tackle this problem, this paper proposes a simplified model which can predict the coupled thermal and electric output dynamics of microturbines. Considering the time-scale difference of various dynamic processes occuring within microturbines, the electromechanical subsystem is treated as a fast quasi-linear process while the thermo-mechanical subsystem is treated as a slow process with high nonlinearity. A three-stage subspace identification method is utilized to capture the dominant dynamics and predict the electric power output. For the thermo-mechanical process, a radial basis function model trained by the particle swarm optimization method is employed to handle the strong nonlinear characteristics. Experimental tests on a Capstone C30 microturbine show that the proposed modeling method can well capture the system dynamics and produce a good prediction of the coupled thermal and electric outputs in various operating modes.

Integrated Optimal Power Flow for Distribution Networks in Local and Urban Scales

This paper develops an integrated optimal power flow (OPF) tool for distribution networks in two spatial scales. In the local scale, the distribution network, the natural gas network, and the heat system are coordinated as a microgrid. In the urban scale, the impact of natural gas network is considered as constraints for the distribution network operation. The proposed approach incorporates unbalance three-phase electrical systems, natural gas systems, and combined cooling, heating, and power systems. The interactions among the above three energy systems are described by energy hub model combined with components capacity constraints. In order to efficiently accommodate the nonlinear constraint optimization problem, particle swarm optimization algorithm is employed to set the control variables in the OPF problem. Numerical studies indicate that by using the OPF method, the distribution network can be economically operated. Also, the tie-line power can be effectively managed.

Fuzzy logic-based implicit authentication for mobile access control

In order to address the increasing compromise of user privacy on mobile devices, a Fuzzy Logic based implicit authentication scheme is proposed in this paper. The proposed scheme computes an aggregate score based on selected features and a threshold in real-time based on current and historic data depicting user routine. The tuned fuzzy system is then applied to the aggregated score and the threshold to determine the trust level of the current user. The proposed fuzzy-integrated implicit authentication scheme is designed to: operate adaptively and completely in the background, require minimal training period, enable high system accuracy while provide timely detection of abnormal activity. In this paper, we explore Fuzzy Logic based authentication in depth. Gaussian and triangle-based membership functions are investigated and compared using real data over several weeks from different Android phone users. The presented results show that our proposed Fuzzy Logic approach is a highly effective, and viable scheme for lightweight real-time implicit authentication on mobile devices.

Improved Real-time State-of-Charge Estimation of LiFePO4 Battery Based on a Novel Thermoelectric Model

Li-ion batteries have been widely used in electric vehicles, and battery internal state estimation plays an important role in the battery management system. However, it is technically challenging, in particular, for the estimation of the battery internal temperature and state-ofcharge (SOC), which are two key state variables affecting the battery performance. In this paper, a novel method is proposed for realtime simultaneous estimation of these two internal states, thus leading to a significantly improved battery model for realtime SOC estimation. To achieve this, a simplified battery thermoelectric model is firstly built, which couples a thermal submodel and an electrical submodel. The interactions between the battery thermal and electrical behaviours are captured, thus offering a comprehensive description of the battery thermal and electrical behaviour. To achieve more accurate internal state estimations, the model is trained by the simulation error minimization method, and model parameters are optimized by a hybrid optimization method combining a meta-heuristic algorithm and the least square approach. Further, timevarying model parameters under different heat dissipation conditions are considered, and a joint extended Kalman filter is used to simultaneously estimate both the battery internal states and time-varying model parameters in realtime. Experimental results based on the testing data of LiFePO4 batteries confirm the efficacy of the proposed method.

Epitaxial growth of molecular crystals on van der Waals substrates for high-performance organic electronics

Epitaxial van der Waals (vdW) heterostructures of organic and layered materials are demonstrated to create high-performance organic electronic devices. High-quality rubrene films with large single-crystalline domains are grown on h-BN dielectric layers via vdW epitaxy. In addition, high carrier mobility comparable to free-standing single-crystal counterparts is achieved by forming interfacial electrical contacts with graphene electrodes.