Understanding the mismatch between income poverty and deprivation: A dynamic comparative analysis

In this paper we seek to shed light on the mismatch between income poverty and deprivation through a comparative and dynamic analysis of both forms of disadvantage. By extending analysis over five waves of the ECHP we are able to take into account the key dimensions characterizing poverty profiles overtime. Our conclusions turn out to be remarkably stable across countries. While persistent income poverty measures are systematically related to both cross-sectional and longitudinal measures of deprivation, the scale of mismatch is no less at the latter than at the former level. There is some evidence that although rates of volatility for income and deprivation measures are roughly similar, the processes of change themselves are somewhat different. Further light is shed on the underlying processes by cross-classifying the forms of deprivation. Those exposed to both types of deprivation are differentiated from others in terms of need and resource variables. Conclusions relating to the socio-demographic influences on risk levels are influenced by choice and combination of indicators. The results of our analysis confirm the need to devote considerably more attention than heretofore to the analysis of multi-dimensional poverty dynamics.

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Aircraft Operating Costs in Structural Design Optimization

The paper focuses on the development of an aircraft design optimization methodology that models uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the tradeoff between manufacturing cost, structural requirements, andaircraft direct operating cost.Specifically,ratherthanonlylooking atmanufacturingcost, direct operatingcost is also consideredintermsof the impact of weight on fuel burn, in addition to the acquisition cost to be borne by the operator. Ultimately, there is a tradeoff between driving design according to minimal weight and driving it according to reduced manufacturing cost. Theanalysis of cost is facilitated withagenetic-causal cost-modeling methodology,andthe structural analysis is driven by numerical expressions of appropriate failure modes that use ESDU International reference data. However, a key contribution of the paper is to investigate the modeling of uncertainty and to perform a sensitivity analysis to investigate the robustness of the optimization methodology. Stochastic distributions are used to characterize manufacturing cost distributions, andMonteCarlo analysis is performed in modeling the impact of uncertainty on the cost modeling. The results are then used in a sensitivity analysis that incorporates the optimization methodology. In addition to investigating manufacturing cost variance, the sensitivity of the optimization to fuel burn cost and structural loading are also investigated. It is found that the consideration of manufacturing cost does make an impact and results in a different optimal design configuration from that delivered by the minimal-weight method. However, it was shown that at lower applied loads there is a threshold fuel burn cost at which the optimization process needs to reduce weight, and this threshold decreases with increasing load. The new optimal solution results in lower direct operating cost with a predicted savings of 640=m2 of fuselage skin over the life, relating to a rough order-of-magnitude direct operating cost savings of $500,000 for the fuselage alone of a small regional jet. Moreover, it was found through the uncertainty analysis that the principle was not sensitive to cost variance, although the margins do change.

Reliability Assessment of 3-D Space Frame Structures Applying Stochastic Finite Element Analysis

Throughout design development of satellite structure, stress engineer is usually challenged with randomness in applied loads and material properties. To overcome such problem, a risk-based design is applied which estimates satellite structure probability of failure under static and thermal loads. Determining probability of failure can help to update initially applied factors of safety that were used during structure preliminary design phase. These factors of safety are related to the satellite mission objective. Sensitivity-based analysis is to be implemented in the context of finite element analysis (probabilistic finite element method or stochastic finite element method (SFEM)) to determine the probability of failure for satellite structure or one of its components.

Mechanical fatigue and spectrum analysis of small-satellite

Mechanical fatigue due to environmental loads and spectrum analysis due to launch loads of the primary structure of a low cost, low-earth orbit small satellite intended for earth observation missions are presented. The payload of the satellite under consideration is a precise optical unit to image the earth’s surface having a mass of 45 kg. 3-D Finite Element Model for the satellite structure is generated by applying substructure method. Modal analysis is required to determine natural frequencies of the satellite and define its mode shape. Then, ranking of mode shapes according to specific constraint is performed. Harmonic analysis at resonance frequencies with the highest ranking is done and cumulative fatigue damage analysis is performed. Spectrum analysis is performed for Small Sat structure to verify the satellite structure reliability under all dynamic random vibration loads applied during transportation and launch cases.

Stochastic and deterministic processes interact in the assembly of desert microbial communities on a global scale

Extreme arid regions in the worlds' major deserts are typified by quartz pavement terrain. Cryptic hypolithic communities colonize the ventral surface of quartz rocks and this habitat is characterized by a relative lack of environmental and trophic complexity. Combined with readily identifiable major environmental stressors this provides a tractable model system for determining the relative role of stochastic and deterministic drivers in community assembly. Through analyzing an original, worldwide data set of 16S rRNA-gene defined bacterial communities from the most extreme deserts on the Earth, we show that functional assemblages within the communities were subject to different assembly influences. Null models applied to the photosynthetic assemblage revealed that stochastic processes exerted most effect on the assemblage, although the level of community dissimilarity varied between continents in a manner not always consistent with neutral models. The heterotrophic assemblages displayed signatures of niche processes across four continents, whereas in other cases they conformed to neutral predictions. Importantly, for continents where neutrality was either rejected or accepted, assembly drivers differed between the two functional groups. This study demonstrates that multi-trophic microbial systems may not be fully described by a single set of niche or neutral assembly rules and that stochasticity is likely a major determinant of such systems, with significant variation in the influence of these determinants on a global scale.

Elastodynamic Modeling and Analysis for an Exechon Parallel Kinematic Machine

As a newly invented parallel kinematic machine (PKM), Exechon has attracted intensive attention from both academic and industrial fields due to its conceptual high performance. Nevertheless, the dynamic behaviors of Exechon PKM have not been thoroughly investigated because of its structural and kinematic complexities. To identify the dynamic characteristics of Exechon PKM, an elastodynamic model is proposed with the substructure synthesis technique in this paper. The Exechon PKM is divided into a moving platform subsystem, a fixed base subsystem and three limb subsystems according to its structural features. Differential equations of motion for the limb subsystem are derived through finite element (FE) formulations by modeling the complex limb structure as a spatial beam with corresponding geometric cross sections. Meanwhile, revolute, universal, and spherical joints are simplified into virtual lumped springs associated with equivalent stiffnesses and mass at their geometric centers. Differential equations of motion for the moving platform are derived with Newton's second law after treating the platform as a rigid body due to its comparatively high rigidity. After introducing the deformation compatibility conditions between the platform and the limbs, governing differential equations of motion for Exechon PKM are derived. The solution to characteristic equations leads to natural frequencies and corresponding modal shapes of the PKM at any typical configuration. In order to predict the dynamic behaviors in a quick manner, an algorithm is proposed to numerically compute the distributions of natural frequencies throughout the workspace. Simulation results reveal that the lower natural frequencies are strongly position-dependent and distributed axial-symmetrically due to the structure symmetry of the limbs. At the last stage, a parametric analysis is carried out to identify the effects of structural, dimensional, and stiffness parameters on the system's dynamic characteristics with the purpose of providing useful information for optimal design and performance improvement of the Exechon PKM. The elastodynamic modeling methodology and dynamic analysis procedure can be well extended to other overconstrained PKMs with minor modifications.

Identification of Microturbine Model for Long-term Dynamic Analysis of Distribution Networks

As one of the most successfully commercialized distributed energy resources, the long-term effects of microturbines (MTs) on the distribution network has not been fully investigated due to the complex thermo-fluid-mechanical energy conversion processes. This is further complicated by the fact that the parameter and internal data of MTs are not always available to the electric utility, due to different ownerships and confidentiality concerns. To address this issue, a general modeling approach for MTs is proposed in this paper, which allows for the long-term simulation of the distribution network with multiple MTs. First, the feasibility of deriving a simplified MT model for long-term dynamic analysis of the distribution network is discussed, based on the physical understanding of dynamic processes that occurred within MTs. Then a three-stage identification method is developed in order to obtain a piecewise MT model and predict electro-mechanical system behaviors with saturation. Next, assisted with the electric power flow calculation tool, a fast simulation methodology is proposed to evaluate the long-term impact of multiple MTs on the distribution network. Finally, the model is verified by using Capstone C30 microturbine experiments, and further applied to the dynamic simulation of a modified IEEE 37-node test feeder with promising results.

Dynalog: an automated dynamic analysis framework for characterizing android applications

Android is becoming ubiquitous and currently has the largest share of the mobile OS market with billions of application downloads from the official app market. It has also become the platform most targeted by mobile malware that are becoming more sophisticated to evade state-of-the-art detection approaches. Many Android malware families employ obfuscation techniques in order to avoid detection and this may defeat static analysis based approaches. Dynamic analysis on the other hand may be used to overcome this limitation. Hence in this paper we propose DynaLog, a dynamic analysis based framework for characterizing Android applications. The framework provides the capability to analyse the behaviour of applications based on an extensive number of dynamic features. It provides an automated platform for mass analysis and characterization of apps that is useful for quickly identifying and isolating malicious applications. The DynaLog framework leverages existing open source tools to extract and log high level behaviours, API calls, and critical events that can be used to explore the characteristics of an application, thus providing an extensible dynamic analysis platform for detecting Android malware. DynaLog is evaluated using real malware samples and clean applications demonstrating its capabilities for effective analysis and detection of malicious applications.