Is China's fifth-largest inland lake to dry-up? Incorporated hydrological and satellite-based methods for forecasting Hulun Lake water levels

Hulun Lake, China's fifth-largest inland lake, experienced severe declines in water level in the period of 2000-2010. This has prompted concerns whether the lake is drying up gradually. A multi-million US dollar engineering project to construct a water channel to transfer part of the river flow from a nearby river to maintain the water level was completed in August 2010. This study aimed to advance the understanding of the key processes controlling the lake water level variation over the last five decades, as well as investigate the impact of the river transfer engineering project on the water level. A water balance model was developed to investigate the lake water level variations over the last five decades, using hydrological and climatic data as well as satellite-based measurements and results from land surface modelling. The investigation reveals that the severe reduction of river discharge (-364±64 mm/yr, ∼70% of the five-decade average) into the lake was the key factor behind the decline of the lake water level between 2000 and 2010. The decline of river discharge was due to the reduction of total runoff from the lake watershed. This was a result of the reduction of soil moisture due to the decrease of precipitation (-49±45 mm/yr) over this period. The water budget calculation suggests that the groundwater component from the surrounding lake area as well as surface run off from the un-gauged area surrounding the lake contributed ∼ net 210 Mm3/yr (equivalent to ∼ 100 mm/yr) water inflows into the lake. The results also show that the water diversion project did prevent a further water level decline of over 0.5 m by the end of 2012. Overall, the monthly water balance model gave an excellent prediction of the lake water level fluctuation over the last five decades and can be a useful tool to manage lake water resources in the future.

Successful balance training is associated with improved multisensory function in fall-prone older adults

Balance maintenance relies on a complex interplay between many different sensory modalities. Although optimal multisensory processing is thought to decline with ageing, inefficient integration is particularly associated with falls in older adults. We investigated whether improved balance control, following a novel balance training intervention, was associated with more efficient multisensory integration in older adults, particularly those who have fallen in the past. Specifically, 76 healthy and fall-prone older adults were allocated to either a balance training programme conducted over 5 weeks or to a passive control condition. Balance training involved a VR display in which the on-screen position of a target object was controlled by shifts in postural balance on a Wii balance board. Susceptibility to the sound-induced flash illusion, before and after the intervention (or control condition), was used as a measure of multisensory function. Whilst balance and postural control improved for all participants assigned to the Intervention group, improved functional balance was correlated with more efficient multisensory processing in the fall-prone older adults only. Our findings add to growing evidence suggesting important links between balance control and multisensory interactions in the ageing brain and have implications for the development of interventions designed to reduce the risk of falls.

Prediction of Transonic Limit-Cycle Oscillations Using an Aeroelastic Harmonic Balance Method

This work proposes a novel approach to compute transonic limit-cycle oscillations using high-fidelity analysis. Computational-Fluid-Dynamics based harmonic balance methods have proven to be efficient tools to predict periodic phenomena. This paper’s contribution is to present a new methodology to determine the unknown frequency of oscillations, enabling harmonic balance methods to accurately capture limit-cycle oscillations; this is achieved by defining a frequency-updating procedure based on a coupled computational-fluid-dynamics/computational-structural-dynamics harmonic balance formulation to find the limit-cycle oscillation condition. A pitch/plunge airfoil and delta wing aerodynamic and respective linear structural models are used to validate the new method against conventional time-domain simulations. Results show consistent agreement between the proposed and time-marching methods for both limit-cycle oscillation amplitude and frequency while producing at least a one-order-of-magnitude reduction in computational time.

Striking a Balance:Christianity and the Challenges of Long-Term Human Security in Zimbabwe

African evangelical/Pentecostal/charismatic (EPC) Christians-previously dismissed by scholars as apolitical-are becoming increasingly active socially and politically. This chapter presents a case study of an EPC congregation in Harare. It demonstrates how the congregation provides short-term human security by responding to the needs of the poor, while at the same time creating space where people can develop the "self-expression values" necessary for long-term human security. The case study also demonstrates that even under authoritarian states, religious actors can actively choose to balance the immediate demands of short-term human security with the sometimes competing demands of long-term human security. Policymakers can benefit from a greater understanding of how religious actors strike this balance and from a greater appreciation of the variability, flexibility, and religious resources of EPC Christians in such contexts.

Equality, justice and feasibility: an ethical analysis of the WBGU’s budget approach

According to the Budget Approach proposed by the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), allocating CO2 emission rights to countries on an equal per-capita basis would provide an ethically justified response to global climate change. In this paper, we will highlight four normative issues which beset the WBGU’s Budget Approach: (1) the approach’s core principle of distributive justice, the principle of equality, and its associated policy of emissions egalitarianism are much more complex than it initially appears; (2) the “official” rationale for determining the size of the budget should be modified in order to avoid implausible normative assumptions about the imposition of permissible intergenerational risks; (3) the approach heavily relies on trade-offs between justice and feasibility which should be stated more explicitly; and (4) part of the approach’s ethical appeal depends on policy instruments which are “detachable” from the approach’s core principle of distributive justice.

Fluid balance, intradialytic hypotension, and outcomes in critically ill patients undergoing renal replacement therapy: a cohort study

Introduction: In this cohort study, we explored the relationship between fluid balance, intradialytic hypotension and outcomes in critically ill patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) who received renal replacement therapy (RRT).

Methods: We analysed prospectively collected registry data on patients older than 16 years who received RRT for at least two days in an intensive care unit at two university-affiliated hospitals. We used multivariable logistic regression to determine the relationship between mean daily fluid balance and intradialytic hypotension, both over seven days following RRT initiation, and the outcomes of hospital mortality and RRT dependence in survivors.

Results: In total, 492 patients were included (299 male (60.8%), mean (standard deviation (SD)) age 62.9 (16.3) years); 251 (51.0%) died in hospital. Independent risk factors for mortality were mean daily fluid balance (odds ratio (OR) 1.36 per 1000 mL positive (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18 to 1.57), intradialytic hypotension (OR 1.14 per 10% increase in days with intradialytic hypotension (95% CI 1.06 to 1.23)), age (OR 1.15 per five-year increase (95% CI 1.07 to 1.25)), maximum sequential organ failure assessment score on days 1 to 7 (OR 1.21 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.29)), and Charlson comorbidity index (OR 1.28 (95% CI 1.14 to 1.44)); higher baseline creatinine (OR 0.98 per 10 mu mol/L (95% CI 0.97 to 0.996)) was associated with lower risk of death. Of 241 hospital survivors, 61 (25.3%) were RRT dependent at discharge. The only independent risk factor for RRT dependence was pre-existing heart failure (OR 3.13 (95% CI 1.46 to 6.74)). Neither mean daily fluid balance nor intradialytic hypotension was associated with RRT dependence in survivors. Associations between these exposures and mortality were similar in sensitivity analyses accounting for immortal time bias and dichotomising mean daily fluid balance as positive or negative. In the subgroup of patients with data on pre-RRT fluid balance, fluid overload at RRT initiation did not modify the association of mean daily fluid balance with mortality.

Conclusions: In this cohort of patients with AKI requiring RRT, a more positive mean daily fluid balance and intradialytic hypotension were associated with hospital mortality but not with RRT dependence at hospital discharge in survivors.

Fluxes of organic contaminants from the river catchment into, through and out of the Humber Estuary, UK

This paper summarises the work done on the distribution and reactivity of organic contaminants (simazine, atrazine, lindane, fluoranthene, pyrene, PCB 77, PCB 118) in the Humber Estuary and associated major rivers, as part of the LOIS programme. The preliminary flux calculations show that the most important contributors of selected organic contaminants were the rivers Trent (45% of simazine, 20% of atrazine), Aire (30% of simazine and 33% of atrazine), Don (36 and 37% of fluoranthene and pyrene) and Ouse (18% of fluoranthene and pyrene). For lindane and PCBs, the Aire and Ouse were the key sources. The water flow in all the rivers shows strong seasonal variations, as do the contaminant concentrations. As a result, the mean daily fluxes of these contaminants displayed a strong seasonality. Annual mean concentrations of simazine and atrazine decreased by more than 50% over the period 1994-1995 in most of the rivers, probably as a result of their restricted use in the UK. Mass balance calculations show that the Humber is a sink for atrazine, lindane, PCB 77 and PCB 118, although the degree of removal is generally much lower for atrazine and lindane than for PCB 77 and PCB 118. Mass balance results also show that the Humber can either be a source of fluoranthene and pyrene (in the suspended particulate phase), or a sink (in the dissolved phase), although overall the Humber acts as sink. The budget exercise represents an attempt to quantify the input and output of selected organic contaminants from catchment to ocean. However, due to limited data and assumptions involved in calculations, the estimates should be considered as an order of magnitude approximation. Further improvement both in resolution and accuracy is required.

Towards a budget approach to Pleistocene terraces: preliminary studies using the River Exe in South West England, UK

This paper presents a first approach to using a sediment budget methodology for paired terrace staircase sediments in SW England. Although a budget approach has become firmly established in Holocene fluvial studies, it has not been used in Pleistocene sequences due to the problems of temporal resolution, catchment changes and downstream loss from the system. However, this paper uses a budget approach in a paired non-glaciated basin, primarily as a method of interrogating the terrace record concerning the degree of reworking and new sediment input required to produce the reconstructed terrace sequences. In order to apply a budget approach a number of assumptions have to be made and these are justified in the paper. The results suggest that the Exe system can most parsimoniously be explained principally by the reworking of a Middle Pleistocene floodplain system with relatively little input of new resistant clasts required and a cascade-type model in geomorphological terms. Whilst this maybe partially a result of the specific geology of the catchment, it is likely to be representative of many Pleistocene terrace systems in NW Europe due to their litho-tectonic similarities. This cascade-type model of terrace formation has archaeological implications and sets the context for the Palaeolithic terrace record in the UK. Future work will involve the testing of this and similar budget models using a combination of landscape modelling and chronometric dating. ?? 2009 The Geologists' Association.

Behaviour-time budget and functional habitat use of a free-ranging European badger (Meles meles)

Background: The European badger (Melesmeles) is involved in the maintenance of bovine tuberculosis infection and onward spread to cattle. However, little is known about how transmission occurs. One possible route could be through direct contact between infected badgers and cattle. It is also possible that indirect contact between cattle and infected badger excretory products such as faeces or urine may occur either on pasture or within and around farm buildings. A better understanding of behaviour patterns in wild badgers may help to develop biosecurity measures to minimise direct and indirect contact between badgers and cattle. However, monitoring the behaviour of free-ranging badgers can be logistically challenging and labour intensive due to their nocturnal and semi-fossorial nature.We trialled a GPS and tri-axial accelerometer-equipped collar on a free-ranging badger to assess its potential value to elucidate behaviour-time budgets and functional habitat use. Results: During the recording period between 16:00 and 08:00 on a single night, resting was the most commonly identified behaviour (67.4%) followed by walking (20.9%), snuffling (9.5%) and trotting (2.3%).When examining accelerometer data associated with each GPS fix and habitat type (occurring 2 min 30 s before and after), walking was themost common behaviour in woodland (40.3%) and arable habitats (53.8%), while snuffling was themost common behaviour in pasture (61.9%). Several nocturnal resting periods were also observed. The total distance travelled was 2.28 km. Conclusions: In the present report, we demonstrate proof of principle in the application of a combined GPS and accelerometer device to collect detailed quantitative data on wild badger behaviour. Behaviour-time budgets allow us to investigate how badgers allocate energy to different activities and how thismight change with disease status. Such information could be useful in the development of measures to reduce opportunities for onward transmission of bovine tuberculosis from badgers to cattle.