Fault Location on a Distribution Network Using a Decentralised Analysis Process

A reduction in the time required to locate and restore faults on a utility's distribution network improves the customer minutes lost (CML) measurement and hence brings direct cost savings to the operating company. The traditional approach to fault location involves fault impedance determination from high volume waveform files dispatched across a communications channel to a central location for processing and analysis. This paper examines an alternative scheme where data processing is undertaken locally within a recording instrument thus reducing the volume of data to be transmitted. Processed event fault reports may be emailed to relevant operational staff for the timely repair and restoration of the line.

Distributed Adaptive Learning Framework for Wide Area Monitoring of Power Systems Integrated with Distributed Generations

This paper presents a preliminary study of developing a novel distributed adaptive real-time learning framework for wide area monitoring of power systems integrated with distributed generations using synchrophasor technology. The framework comprises distributed agents (synchrophasors) for autonomous local condition monitoring and fault detection, and a central unit for generating global view for situation awareness and decision making. Key technologies that can be integrated into this hierarchical distributed learning scheme are discussed to enable real-time information extraction and knowledge discovery for decision making, without explicitly accumulating and storing all raw data by the central unit. Based on this, the configuration of a wide area monitoring system of power systems using synchrophasor technology, and the functionalities for locally installed open-phasor-measurement-units (OpenPMUs) and a central unit are presented. Initial results on anti-islanding protection using the proposed approach are given to illustrate the effectiveness.

Model selection for prognostic time-to-event gene signature discovery with applications in early breast cancer data

Model selection between competing models is a key consideration in the discovery of prognostic multigene signatures. The use of appropriate statistical performance measures as well as verification of biological significance of the signatures is imperative to maximise the chance of external validation of the generated signatures. Current approaches in time-to-event studies often use only a single measure of performance in model selection, such as logrank test p-values, or dichotomise the follow-up times at some phase of the study to facilitate signature discovery. In this study we improve the prognostic signature discovery process through the application of the multivariate partial Cox model combined with the concordance index, hazard ratio of predictions, independence from available clinical covariates and biological enrichment as measures of signature performance. The proposed framework was applied to discover prognostic multigene signatures from early breast cancer data. The partial Cox model combined with the multiple performance measures were used in both guiding the selection of the optimal panel of prognostic genes and prediction of risk within cross validation without dichotomising the follow-up times at any stage. The signatures were successfully externally cross validated in independent breast cancer datasets, yielding a hazard ratio of 2.55 [1.44, 4.51] for the top ranking signature.

Adaptive Fusion Of Particle Filtering And Spatio-Temporal Motion Energy For Human Tracking

Object tracking is an active research area nowadays due to its importance in human computer interface, teleconferencing and video surveillance. However, reliable tracking of objects in the presence of occlusions, pose and illumination changes is still a challenging topic. In this paper, we introduce a novel tracking approach that fuses two cues namely colour and spatio-temporal motion energy within a particle filter based framework. We conduct a measure of coherent motion over two image frames, which reveals the spatio-temporal dynamics of the target. At the same time, the importance of both colour and motion energy cues is determined in the stage of reliability evaluation. This determination helps maintain the performance of the tracking system against abrupt appearance changes. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the other state of the art techniques in the used test datasets.

Integrating Multiple Point Statistics with Aerial Geophysical Data to assist Groundwater Flow Models

The process of accounting for heterogeneity has made significant advances in statistical research, primarily in the framework of stochastic analysis and the development of multiple-point statistics (MPS). Among MPS techniques, the direct sampling (DS) method is tested to determine its ability to delineate heterogeneity from aerial magnetics data in a regional sandstone aquifer intruded by low-permeability volcanic dykes in Northern Ireland, UK. The use of two two-dimensional bivariate training images aids in creating spatial probability distributions of heterogeneities of hydrogeological interest, despite relatively ‘noisy’ magnetics data (i.e. including hydrogeologically irrelevant urban noise and regional geologic effects). These distributions are incorporated into a hierarchy system where previously published density function and upscaling methods are applied to derive regional distributions of equivalent hydraulic conductivity tensor K. Several K models, as determined by several stochastic realisations of MPS dyke locations, are computed within groundwater flow models and evaluated by comparing modelled heads with field observations. Results show a significant improvement in model calibration when compared to a simplistic homogeneous and isotropic aquifer model that does not account for the dyke occurrence evidenced by airborne magnetic data. The best model is obtained when normal and reverse polarity dykes are computed separately within MPS simulations and when a probability threshold of 0.7 is applied. The presented stochastic approach also provides improvement when compared to a previously published deterministic anisotropic model based on the unprocessed (i.e. noisy) airborne magnetics. This demonstrates the potential of coupling MPS to airborne geophysical data for regional groundwater modelling.

Data Mapping for Unreliable Memories

Future digital signal processing (DSP) systems must provide robustness on algorithm and application level to the presence of reliability issues that come along with corresponding implementations in modern semiconductor process technologies. In this paper, we address this issue by investigating the impact of unreliable memories on general DSP systems. In particular, we propose a novel framework to characterize the effects of unreliable memories, which enables us to devise novel methods to mitigate the associated performance loss. We propose to deploy specifically designed data representations, which have the capability of substantially improving the system reliability compared to that realized by conventional data representations used in digital integrated circuits, such as 2's-complement or sign-magnitude number formats. To demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed framework, we analyze the impact of unreliable memories on coded communication systems, and we show that the deployment of optimized data representations substantially improves the error-rate performance of such systems.

Adaptive uncertain information fusion to enhance plan selection in BDI agent systems

Correctly modelling and reasoning with uncertain information from heterogeneous sources in large-scale systems is critical when the reliability is unknown and we still want to derive adequate conclusions. To this end, context-dependent merging strategies have been proposed in the literature. In this paper we investigate how one such context-dependent merging strategy (originally defined for possibility theory), called largely partially maximal consistent subsets (LPMCS), can be adapted to Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory. We identify those measures for the degree of uncertainty and internal conflict that are available in DS theory and show how they can be used for guiding LPMCS merging. A simplified real-world power distribution scenario illustrates our framework. We also briefly discuss how our approach can be incorporated into a multi-agent programming language, thus leading to better plan selection and decision making.

An Extended Event Reasoning Framework for Decision Support under Uncertainty

To provide in-time reactions to a large volume of surveil- lance data, uncertainty-enabled event reasoning frameworks for CCTV and sensor based intelligent surveillance system have been integrated to model and infer events of interest. However, most of the existing works do not consider decision making under uncertainty which is important for surveillance operators. In this paper, we extend an event reasoning framework for decision support, which enables our framework to predict, rank and alarm threats from multiple heterogeneous sources.

An Intelligent Threat Prevention Framework with Heterogeneous Information

Three issues usually are associated with threat prevention intelligent surveillance systems. First, the fusion and interpretation of large scale incomplete heterogeneous information; second, the demand of effectively predicting suspects’ intention and ranking the potential threats posed by each suspect; third, strategies of allocating limited security resources (e.g., the dispatch of security team) to prevent a suspect’s further actions towards critical assets. However, in the literature, these three issues are seldomly considered together in a sensor network based intelligent surveillance framework. To address
this problem, in this paper, we propose a multi-level decision support framework for in-time reaction in intelligent surveillance. More specifically, based on a multi-criteria event modeling framework, we design a method to predict the most plausible intention of a suspect. Following this, a decision support model is proposed to rank each suspect based on their threat severity and to determine resource allocation strategies. Finally, formal properties are discussed to justify our framework.

An analysis of implied volatility jump dynamics: Novel functional data representation in crude oil markets

The predominant fear in capital markets is that of a price spike. Commodity markets differ in that there is a fear of both upward and down jumps, this results in implied volatility curves displaying distinct shapes when compared to equity markets. The use of a novel functional data analysis (FDA) approach, provides a framework to produce and interpret functional objects that characterise the underlying dynamics of oil future options. We use the FDA framework to examine implied volatility, jump risk, and pricing dynamics within crude oil markets. Examining a WTI crude oil sample for the 2007–2013 period, which includes the global financial crisis and the Arab Spring, strong evidence is found of converse jump dynamics during periods of demand and supply side weakness. This is used as a basis for an FDA-derived Merton (1976) jump diffusion optimised delta hedging strategy, which exhibits superior portfolio management results over traditional methods.

Preferred Reporting Items for a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Individual Participant Data The PRISMA-IPD Statement

IMPORTANCE Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of individual participant data (IPD) aim to collect, check, and reanalyze individual-level data from all studies addressing a particular research question and are therefore considered a gold standard approach to evidence synthesis. They are likely to be used with increasing frequency as current initiatives to share clinical trial data gain momentum and may be particularly important in reviewing controversial therapeutic areas.

OBJECTIVE To develop PRISMA-IPD as a stand-alone extension to the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) Statement, tailored to the specific requirements of reporting systematic reviews and meta-analyses of IPD. Although developed primarily for reviews of randomized trials, many items will apply in other contexts, including reviews of diagnosis and prognosis.

DESIGN Development of PRISMA-IPD followed the EQUATOR Network framework guidance and used the existing standard PRISMA Statement as a starting point to draft additional relevant material. A web-based survey informed discussion at an international workshop that included researchers, clinicians, methodologists experienced in conducting systematic reviews and meta-analyses of IPD, and journal editors. The statement was drafted and iterative refinements were made by the project, advisory, and development groups. The PRISMA-IPD Development Group reached agreement on the PRISMA-IPD checklist and flow diagram by consensus.

FINDINGS Compared with standard PRISMA, the PRISMA-IPD checklist includes 3 new items that address (1) methods of checking the integrity of the IPD (such as pattern of randomization, data consistency, baseline imbalance, and missing data), (2) reporting any important issues that emerge, and (3) exploring variation (such as whether certain types of individual benefit more from the intervention than others). A further additional item was created by reorganization of standard PRISMA items relating to interpreting results. Wording was modified in 23 items to reflect the IPD approach.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE PRISMA-IPD provides guidelines for reporting systematic reviews and meta-analyses of IPD.

PICan: An integromics framework for dynamic cancer biomarker discovery

Modern cancer research on prognostic and predictive biomarkers demands the integration of established and emerging high-throughput technologies. However, these data are meaningless unless carefully integrated with patient clinical outcome and epidemiological information. Integrated datasets hold the key to discovering new biomarkers and therapeutic targets in cancer. We have developed a novel approach and set of methods for integrating and interrogating phenomic, genomic and clinical data sets to facilitate cancer biomarker discovery and patient stratification. Applied to a known paradigm, the biological and clinical relevance of TP53, PICan was able to recapitulate the known biomarker status and prognostic significance at a DNA, RNA and protein levels.

THE SAAF STUDY: evaluation of the Safeguarding Children Assessment and Analysis Framework (SAAF), compared with management as usual, for improving outcomes for children and young people who have experienced, or are at risk of, maltreatment: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background: Serious case reviews and research studies have indicated weaknesses in risk assessments conducted by child protection social workers. Social workers are adept at gathering information but struggle with analysis and assessment of risk. The Department for Education wants to know if the use of a structured decision-making tool can improve child protection assessments of risk.

Methods/design: This multi-site, cluster-randomised trial will assess the effectiveness of the Safeguarding Children Assessment and Analysis Framework (SAAF). This structured decision-making tool aims to improve social workers' assessments of harm, of future risk and parents' capacity to change. The comparison is management as usual.

Inclusion criteria: Children's Services Departments (CSDs) in England willing to make relevant teams available to be randomised, and willing to meet the trial's training and data collection requirements.

Exclusion criteria: CSDs where there were concerns about performance; where a major organisational restructuring was planned or under way; or where other risk assessment tools were in use.

Six CSDs are participating in this study. Social workers in the experimental arm will receive 2 days training in SAAF together with a range of support materials, and access to limited telephone consultation post-training. The primary outcome is child maltreatment. This will be assessed using data collected nationally on two key performance indicators: the first is the number of children in a year who have been subject to a second Child Protection Plan (CPP); the second is the number of re-referrals of children because of related concerns about maltreatment. Secondary outcomes are: i) the quality of assessments judged against a schedule of quality criteria and ii) the relationship between the three assessments required by the structured decision-making tool (level of harm, risk of (re) abuse and prospects for successful intervention).

Discussion: This is the first study to examine the effectiveness of SAAF. It will contribute to a very limited literature on the contribution that structured decision-making tools can make to improving risk assessment and case planning in child protection and on what is involved in their effective implementation.

Assessment of Atomic Data: Problems and Solutions

For the reliable analysis and modeling of astrophysical, laser-produced, and fusion plasmas, atomic data are required for a number of parameters, including energy levels, radiative rates, and electron impact excitation rates. Such data are desired for a range of elements (H to W) and their many ions. However, measurements of atomic data, mainly for radiative and excitation rates, are not feasible for many species, and therefore, calculations are needed. For some ions (such as of C, Fe, and Kr), there is a variety of calculations available in the literature, but often, they differ significantly from one another. Therefore, there is a great demand from the user community to have data "assessed" for accuracy so that they can be confidently applied to the modeling of plasmas. In this paper we highlight the difficulties in assessing atomic data and offer some solutions for improving the accuracy of calculated results.

Robust bimodal person identification using face and speech with limited training data and corruption of both modalities

This paper presents a novel method of audio-visual fusion for person identification where both the speech and facial modalities may be corrupted, and there is a lack of prior knowledge about the corruption. Furthermore, we assume there is a limited amount of training data for each modality (e.g., a short training speech segment and a single training facial image for each person). A new representation and a modified cosine similarity are introduced for combining and comparing bimodal features with limited training data as well as vastly differing data rates and feature sizes. Optimal feature selection and multicondition training are used to reduce the mismatch between training and testing, thereby making the system robust to unknown bimodal corruption. Experiments have been carried out on a bimodal data set created from the SPIDRE and AR databases with variable noise corruption of speech and occlusion in the face images. The new method has demonstrated improved recognition accuracy.