Information aggregation and belief elicitation in experimental parimutuel betting markets

This paper studies the impact of belief elicitation on informational efficiency and individual behavior in experimental parimutuel betting markets. In one treatment, groups of eight participants, who possess a private signal about the eventual outcome, play a sequential betting game. The second treatment is identical, except that bettors are observed by eight other participants who submit incentivized beliefs about the winning probabilities of each outcome. In the third treatment, the same individuals make bets and assess the winning probabilities of the outcomes. Market probabilities more accurately reflect objective probabilities in the third than in the other two treatments. Submitting beliefs reduces the favorite-longshot bias and making bets improves the accuracy of elicited beliefs. A level-k framework provides some insights about why belief elicitation improves the capacity of betting markets to aggregate information. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Dimensions of Expatriate Adjustment

A narrow and partial theoretical base has limited current concepts of expatriate adjustment and the research based upon them. This conceptual article explores one of the less theorized aspects of expatriate adjustment: the fact that it has multiple dimensions. We conceive of adjustment as a person-environment relationship that takes place in the three dimensions of cognitions, feelings, and behaviors. Combining these elements takes us one step closer to a comprehensive and more realistic understanding of the nature of expatriate adjustment. We include suggestions for future research that follow from our reconceptualization.

Dual-processes in learning and judgment:Evidence from the multiple cue probability learning paradigm

Multiple cue probability learning (MCPL) involves learning to predict a criterion based on a set of novel cues when feedback is provided in response to each judgment made. But to what extent does MCPL require controlled attention and explicit hypothesis testing? The results of two experiments show that this depends on cue polarity. Learning about cues that predict positively is aided by automatic cognitive processes, whereas learning about cues that predict negatively is especially demanding on controlled attention and hypothesis testing processes. In the studies reported here, negative, but not positive cue learning related to individual differences in working memory capacity both on measures of overall judgment performance and modelling of the implicit learning process. However, the introduction of a novel method to monitor participants' explicit beliefs about a set of cues on a trial-by-trial basis revealed that participants were engaged in explicit hypothesis testing about positive and negative cues, and explicit beliefs about both types of cues were linked to working memory capacity. Taken together, our results indicate that while people are engaged in explicit hypothesis testing during cue learning, explicit beliefs are applied to judgment only when cues are negative. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

Basic and Employability Skills

This is the editorial opening paper to a special issue of the International Journal of Training and Development focusing on basic skills and employability

Understanding how HR systems work: the role of HR philosophy and HR processes

Despite the proliferation of studies of HR systems, there are still substantial gaps in our understanding
of how such systems actually work. This article, by focusing on the neglected areas of HR philosophy
and HR processes in the composition of HR systems, and by using a qualitative, employee-centred
approach in the collection and analysis of data, provides new insights into the working of HR systems.
Using data from interviews with 56 knowledge workers employed in the information and
communications technology sector in Ireland and the UK, we explore employee-level reactions to two
different types of HR systems. We highlight the various ways in which HR processes interact with HR
practices and the different outcomes that may result, and we identify the key role of HR philosophy in
HR system operation.

Learning, fatigue and preference formation in discrete choice experiments

While the repeated nature of Discrete Choice Experiments is advantageous from a sampling efficiency perspective, patterns of choice may differ across the tasks, due, in part, to learning and fatigue. Using probabilistic decision process models, we find in a field study that learning and fatigue behavior may only be exhibited by a small subset of respondents. Most respondents in our sample show preference and variance stability consistent with rational pre-existent and
well formed preferences. Nearly all of the remainder exhibit both learning and fatigue effects. An important aspect of our approach is that it enables learning and fatigue effects to be explored, even though they were not envisaged during survey design or data collection.

Can the scaling behavior of electric conductivity be used to probe the self-organizational changes in solution with respect to the ionic liquid structure? The case of [C8MIM][NTf2]

Electrical conductivity of the supercooled ionic liquid [C8MIM][NTf2], determined as a function of temperature and pressure, highlights strong differences in its ionic transport behavior between low and high temperature regions. To date, the crossover effect which is very well known for low molecular van der Waals liquids has been rarely described for classical ionic liquids. This finding highlights that the thermal fluctuations could be dominant mechanisms driving the dramatic slowing down of ion motions near Tg. An alternative way to analyze separately low and high temperature dc-conductivity data using a density scaling approach was then proposed. Based on which a common value of the scaling exponent [gamma] = 2.4 was obtained, indicating that the applied density scaling is insensitive to the crossover effect. By comparing the scaling exponent [gamma] reported herein along with literature data for other ionic liquids, it appears that [gamma] decreases by increasing the alkyl chain length on the 1-alkyl-3-methylimidazolium-based ionic liquids. This observation may be related to changes in the interaction between ions in solution driven by an increase in the van der Waals type interaction by increasing the alkyl chain length on the cation. This effect may be related to changes in the ionic liquid nanostructural organization with the alkyl chain length on the cation as previously reported in the literature based on molecular dynamic simulations. In other words, the calculated scaling exponent [gamma] may be then used as a key parameter to probe the interaction and/or self-organizational changes in solution with respect to the ionic liquid structure.