A Bayesian framework for age modeling of radiocarbon-dated peat deposits: Case studies from the Netherlands

Recently, Bayesian statistical software has been developed for age-depth modeling (wiggle-match dating) of sequences of densely spaced radiocarbon dates from peat cores. The method is described in non-statistical terms, and is compared with an alternative method of chronological ordering of 14C dates. Case studies include the dating of the start of agriculture in the northeastern part of the Netherlands, and of a possible Hekla-3 tephra layer in the same country. We discuss future enhancements in Bayesian age modeling.

Stability of Short-span Bridges Subject to Overtopping during Floods: Case Studies from UK and the USA

As a consequence of increased levels of flooding, largely attributable to urbanization of watersheds (and perhaps climate change, more frequent extreme rainfall events are occurring and threatening existing critical infrastructure. Many of which are short-span bridges over relatively small waterways (e.g., small rivers, streams and canals). Whilst these short-span bridges were designed, often many years ago, to pass relatively minor the then standard return-period floods, in recenttimes the failure incidence of such short-span bridges has been noticeably increasing. This is suggestive of insufficient hydraulic capacity or alternative failure mechanism not envisaged at the time of design e.g. foundation scour or undermining. This paper presen ts, and draws lessons, from bridge failures in Ireland and the USA. For example, in November 2009, the UK and Ireland were subjected to extraordinarily severe weather conditions for several days. The resulting flooding led to the collapse of three UK bridges that were generally 19th century masonry arch bridges, withrelatively shallow foundations. Parallel failure events have been observed in the USA. To date, knowledge of the combined effect of waterway erosion, bridge submergence, and geotechnical collapse has not been adequately studied. Recent research carried out considered the hydraulic analysis of short span bridges under flood conditions, but no consideration was given towards the likely damage to these structures due to erosive coupling of hydraulic and geotechnical factors. Some work has been done to predict the discharge downstream of an inundated arch, focusing onpredicting afflux, as opposed to bridge scour, under both pressurized and free-surface flows, but no ! predictive equation for scour under pressurized conditions was ever considered. The case studies this paper presents will be augmented by the initial findings from the laboratory experiments investigating the effects of surcharged flow and subsequent scour within the vicinity of single span arch bridges. Velocities profiles will be shown within the vicinity of the arch, in addition to the depth of consequent scour, for a series of flows and model spans. The data will be presented and correlated to the most recent predictive equations for submerged contraction and abutment scour. The accuracy of these equations is examined, and the findings used as a basis for developing further studies in relation to short span bridges.

A biological survey method applied to seafloor massive sulphides (SMS) with contagiously distributed hydrothermal-vent fauna

Strategies for mitigation of seafloor massive sulphide (SMS) extraction in the deep sea include establishment of suitable reference sites that allow for studies of natural environmental variability and that can serve as sources of larvae for re-colonisation of extracted hydrothermal fields. In this study, we characterize deep-sea vent communities in Manus Basin (Bismarck Sea, Papua New Guinea) and use macrofaunal data sets from a proposed reference site (South Su) and a proposed mine site (Solwara 1) to test the hypothesis that there was no difference in macrofaunal community structure between the sites. We used dispersion weighting to adjust taxa-abundance matrices to down-weight the contribution of contagious distributions of numerically abundant taxa. Faunal assemblages of 3 habitat types defined by biogenic taxa (2 provannid snails, Alviniconcha spp. and Ifremeria nautilei; and a sessile barnacle, Eochionelasmus ohtai) were distinct from one another and from the vent peripheral assemblage, but were not differentiable from mound-to-mound within a site or between sites. Mussel and tubeworm populations at South Su but not at Solwara 1 enhance the taxonomic and habitat diversity of the proposed reference site. © Inter-Research 2012.